A long-term energy efficiency prediction model for the Brazilian automotive industry

According to law number 12.715/2012, Brazilian government instituted guidelines for a program named Inovar-Auto. In this context, energy efficiency is a survival requirement for Brazilian automotive industry from September 2016. As proposed by law, energy efficiency is not going to be calculated by models only. It is going to be calculated by the whole universe of new vehicles registered. In this scenario, the composition of vehicles sold in market will be a key factor on profits of each automaker. Energy efficiency and its consequences should be taken into consideration in all of its aspects. In this scenario, emerges the following question: which is the efficiency curve of one automaker for long term, allowing them to adequate to rules, keep balancing on investment in technologies, increasing energy efficiency without affecting competitiveness of product lineup? Among several variables to be considered, one can highlight the analysis of manufacturing costs, customer value perception and market share, which characterizes this problem as a multi-criteria decision-making. To tackle the energy efficiency problem required by legislation, this paper proposes a framework of multi-criteria decision-making. The proposed framework combines Delphi group and Analytic Hierarchy Process to identify suitable alternatives for automakers to incorporate in main Brazilian vehicle segments. A forecast model based on artificial neural networks was used to estimate vehicle sales demand to validate expected results. This approach is demonstrated with a real case study using public vehicles sales data of Brazilian automakers and public energy efficiency data.

Serum copper evolution in patients that underwent endoscopic gastrostomy for long term enteral feeding

Background and aims: Copper (Cu) is a well studied trace element but little is known about Cu evolution in long term endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) feeding. We aimed to evaluate the evolution serum Cu since the gastrostomy until 12 weeks after the procedure in PEG patients fed with homemade meals. Methods: A prospective observational study was performed evaluating serum copper, albumin, transferrin and body mass index (BMI) at the time of the gastrostomy, 4 weeks and 12 weeks after. Data also included age, gender, NRS 2002 and nature of the underlying disease causing dysphagia: head and neck cancer (HNC) or neurological dysphagia (ND). After gastrostomy, patients were fed with homemade PEG meals. Results: One hundred and forty-six patients enrolled, 89 men, aged 21-95 years, 90 with neurologic dysphagia (ND), and 56 with head and neck cancer (HNC). 78 (53%) showed low BMI. Initially, Cu ranged 42-160 μg/dl (normal: 70-140 μg/dl); 130 patients (89%) presented normal Cu, 16 (11%) presented hypocupremia, 53% low albumin (n = 77), and 94 (65%) low transferrin. After 4 weeks, 93% presented normal Cu, 7% presented hypocupremia, low albumin was present in 34%, and low transferrin in 52%. After 12 weeks, 95% presented normal Cu, 5% presented hypocupremia, low albumin was present in 25%, and low transferrin in 32%. Comparing age, gender, underlying disease, BMI, albumin and transferrin, there were no significant differences on serum Cu. Conclusions: Most patients present normal serum Cu when gastrostomy is performed. For patients presenting hypocupremia before gastrostomy, homemade meals are effective for normalizing serum Cu.

DYNAMICS OF THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM AVIAN DISTRIBUTIONS IN NORTH AMERICA - THE ROLES OF VEGETATION HEIGHT HETEROGENEITY AND CLIMATIC FACTORS

Understanding how biodiversity spatially distribute over both the short term and long term, and what factors are affecting the distribution, are critical for modeling the spatial pattern of biodiversity as well as for promoting effective conservation planning and practices. This dissertation aims to examine factors that influence short-term and long-term avian distribution from the geographical sciences perspective. The research develops landscape level habitat metrics to characterize forest height heterogeneity and examines their efficacies in modelling avian richness at the continental scale. Two types of novel vegetation-height-structured habitat metrics are created based on second order texture algorithms and the concepts of patch-based habitat metrics. I correlate the height-structured metrics with the richness of different forest guilds, and also examine their efficacies in multivariate richness models. The results suggest that height heterogeneity, beyond canopy height alone, supplements habitat characterization and richness models of two forest bird guilds. The metrics and models derived in this study demonstrate practical examples of utilizing three-dimensional vegetation data for improved characterization of spatial patterns in species richness. The second and the third projects focus on analyzing centroids of avian distributions, and testing hypotheses regarding the direction and speed of these shifts. I first showcase the usefulness of centroids analysis for characterizing the distribution changes of a few case study species. Applying the centroid method on 57 permanent resident bird species, I show that multi-directional distribution shifts occurred in large number of studied species. I also demonstrate, plain birds are not shifting their distribution faster than mountain birds, contrary to the prediction based on climate change velocity hypothesis. By modelling the abundance change rate at regional level, I show that extreme climate events and precipitation measures associate closely with some of the long-term distribution shifts. This dissertation improves our understanding on bird habitat characterization for species richness modelling, and expands our knowledge on how avian populations shifted their ranges in North America responding to changing environments in the past four decades. The results provide an important scientific foundation for more accurate predictive species distribution modeling in future.

ANALYSIS OF FUNCTIONAL STATUS OF ELDERLY RESIDENTS IN LONG-TERM CARE INSTITUTIONS

Objective: To evaluate the functional status of elderly residents in long-term institutions. Methods: Exploratory-descriptive study, developed in two long-term care institutions for the elderly (LTC), in city of Fortaleza, Ceará. The instruments utilized were: 1) Sociodemographic form, 2) Functional Independence Measure (FIM), and 3) International Classification of Functioning (ICF). Data was descriptively analyzed through the calculation of frequency, mean and standard deviation. Results: There was a predominance of males (n=47; 59.49%), with mean age of 74.58 (± 8.89) years, 68.35% (n=54) have been or are married, and 49.37% (n=39) are illiterate. In reference to the FIM, it was observed that the elderly perform the activities in a complete or modified mode and 18.99% (n=15) have difficulty climbing stairs. As to the association between the FIM and the ICF, in relation to self-care, it was seen that 96.20% (n=76) have no difficulty in performing tasks; 92.40% (n=73) move around without difficulty; and 98.73% (n=78) have preserved the cognition. In relation to the capacity of maintaining and controlling social interactions, all exhibit this domain preserved. Conclusion: The surveyed elderly presented good cognitive status and little dependence in activities regarding personal care, mobility and communication. The use of the ICF allows the visualization of the functionality scenario among the elderly, what can facilitate more effective health promotion strategies for this population.

Predicting long-term outcome after acute ischemic stroke: a simple index works in patients from controlled clinical trials

Background and Purpose—An early and reliable prognosis for recovery in stroke patients is important for initiation of individual treatment and for informing patients and relatives. We recently developed and validated models for predicting survival and functional independence within 3 months after acute stroke, based on age and the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score assessed within 6 hours after stroke. Herein we demonstrate the applicability of our models in an independent sample of patients from controlled clinical trials. Methods—The prognostic models were used to predict survival and functional recovery in 5419 patients from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive (VISTA). Furthermore, we tried to improve the accuracy by adapting intercepts and estimating new model parameters. Results—The original models were able to correctly classify 70.4% (survival) and 72.9% (functional recovery) of patients. Because the prediction was slightly pessimistic for patients in the controlled trials, adapting the intercept improved the accuracy to 74.8% (survival) and 74.0% (functional recovery). Novel estimation of parameters, however, yielded no relevant further improvement. Conclusions—For acute ischemic stroke patients included in controlled trials, our easy-to-apply prognostic models based on age and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score correctly predicted survival and functional recovery after 3 months. Furthermore, a simple adaptation helps to adjust for a different prognosis and is recommended if a large data set is available. (Stroke. 2008;39:000-000.)

Treadmill walking exercise modulates bone mineral status and inflammatory cytokines in obese asthmatic patients with long term intake of corticosteroids.

Background: Obesity and asthma are an important public health problem in Saudi Arabia. An increasing body of data supports the hypothesis that obesity is a risk factor for asthma. Asthma appears to be associated with low bone mineral density (BMD) due to long-term use of corticosteroids. Studies recently showed that weight bearing exercise training can increase mineral bone density, reduce weight and improve metabolic control. Objective: The present study aimed to measure the effects of treadmill walking exercises on bone mineral status and inflammatory cytokines in obese asthmatic patients treated with long term intake of corticosteroids. Methods: Eighty obese asthmatic patients of both sexes, their age ranged from 41 to 53 years. Subjects were divided into two equal groups: training group (group A) received aerobic exercise training on treadmill for six months in addition to the medical treatment where, the control group (group B) received only the medical treatment. Results: The results of this study indicated a significant increase in BMD of the lumbar spine & the radius, serum calcium and high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c) & significant reduction in parathyroid hormone, leptin, tumor necrosis factor– alpha(TNF-α), interleukin-2 (IL-2), interleukin-4 (IL-4), interleukin-6 (IL-6), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c), triglycerides (TG) and body mass index (BMI) in group (A), while these changes were not significant in group (B).Also; there was a significant difference between both groups at the end of the study. Conclusion: Treadmill walking exercise training is an effective treatment policy to improve bone mineral status and modulates inflammatory cytokines and blood lipids profile in obese asthmatic patients with long term intake of corticosteroids.

SCOR WG 142: Quality Control Procedures for Oxygen and Other Biogeochemical Sensors on Floats and Gliders. Recommendation for oxygen measurements from Argo floats, implementation of in-air-measurement routine to assure highest long-term accuracy

Recommendation for Oxygen Measurements from Argo Floats: Implementation of In-Air-Measurement Routine to Assure Highest Long-term Accuracy As Argo has entered its second decade and chemical/biological sensor technology is improving constantly, the marine biogeochemistry community is starting to embrace the successful Argo float program. An augmentation of the global float observatory, however, has to follow rather stringent constraints regarding sensor characteristics as well as data processing and quality control routines. Owing to the fairly advanced state of oxygen sensor technology and the high scientific value of oceanic oxygen measurements (Gruber et al., 2010), an expansion of the Argo core mission to routine oxygen measurements is perhaps the most mature and promising candidate (Freeland et al., 2010). In this context, SCOR Working Group 142 “Quality Control Procedures for Oxygen and Other Biogeochemical Sensors on Floats and Gliders” (www.scor-int.org/SCOR_WGs_WG142.htm) set out in 2014 to assess the current status of biogeochemical sensor technology with particular emphasis on float-readiness, develop pre- and post-deployment quality control metrics and procedures for oxygen sensors, and to disseminate procedures widely to ensure rapid adoption in the community.

Does therapeutic writing help people with long-term conditions? Systematic review, realist synthesis and economic considerations

Background Writing therapy to improve physical or mental health can take many forms. The most researched model of therapeutic writing (TW) is unfacilitated, individual expressive writing (written emotional disclosure). Facilitated writing activities are less widely researched. Data sources Databases including: MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO, Linguistics and Language Behavior Abstracts, AMED, and CINHAL were searched from inception to March 2013. Review methods Four TW practitioners provided expert advice. Study procedures were conducted by one reviewer and checked by a second. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and non-randomised comparative studies were included. Quality was appraised using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Unfacilitated and facilitated TW studies were analysed separately under ICD-10 chapter headings. Meta-analyses were performed where possible using Revman 5.2. Costs were estimated from an NHS perspective and three cost-consequence case studies were prepared. Realist synthesis followed RAMESES guidelines. Objectives To review the clinical and cost-effectiveness of TW for people with long-term health conditions (LTCs) compared to no writing, or other controls, reporting any relevant clinical outcomes. To conduct a realist synthesis to understand how TW might work, and for whom. Results From 14,658 unique citations, 284 full text papers were reviewed and 64 studies (58 RCTs) were included in the final effectiveness reviews. Five studies examined facilitated TW, these were extremely heterogeneous with unclear or high risk of bias, but suggested that facilitated TW interventions may be beneficial in individual LTCs. Unfacilitated expressive writing was examined in 59 studies of variable, or unreported, quality. Overall there was very little or no evidence of any benefit reported in the following conditions (number of studies): HIV (six); breast cancer (eight); gynaecological and genitourinary cancers (five); mental health (five); asthma (four); psoriasis (three); chronic pain (four). In inflammatory arthropathies (six) there was a reduction in disease severity (n= 191, standardised mean difference (SMD) - 0.61 [95% confidence intervals (95% CI) -0.96, -0.26]) in the short term on meta-analysis of four studies. For all other LTCs there was either no, or sparse, data with no, or inconsistent, evidence of benefit. Meta-analyses conducted across all the LTCs provided no evidence that unfacilitated EW had any effect on depression at short term (n= 1,563, SMD -0.06, 95% CI -0.29 to 0.17, substantial heterogeneity), or long term (n= 778, SMD-0.04 95% CI -0.18 to 0.10, little heterogeneity) follow up, or on anxiety, physiological or biomarker-based outcomes. One study reported costs, none reported cost-effectiveness, twelve reported resource use; meta-analysis suggested reduced medication use but no impact on health centre visits. Estimated costs of intervention were low, but there was insufficient evidence to judge cost-effectiveness. Realist review findings suggested that facilitated TW is a complex intervention and group interaction contributes to the perception of benefit. It was unclear from the available data who might benefit most from facilitated TW. Limitations Difficulties with developing realist review programme theory meant that mechanisms operating during TW remain obscure. Conclusions Overall there is little evidence to support the effectiveness or cost-effectiveness of unfacilitated expressive writing interventions in people with LTCs. Further research focussed on facilitated TW in people with LTCs could be informative.

Long-term Trends in Magnitude and Frequency of Extreme Rainfall Events in Florida

This study computed trends in extreme precipitation events of Florida for 1950-2010. Hourly aggregated rainfall data from 24 stations of the National Climatic Data Centre were analyzed to derive time-series of extreme rainfalls for 12 durations, ranging from 1 hour to 7 day. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen Approach were applied to detect the significance of trends in annual maximum rainfalls, number of above threshold events and average magnitude of above threshold events for four common analysis periods. Trend Free Pre-Whitening (TFPW) approach was applied to remove the serial correlations and bootstrap resampling approach was used to detect the field significance of trends. The results for annual maximum rainfall revealed dominant increasing trends at the statistical significance level of 0.10, especially for hourly events in longer period and daily events in recent period. The number of above threshold events exhibited strong decreasing trends for hourly durations in all time periods.

Short-term and long-term changes in corneal power are not correlated with axial elongation of the eye induced by orthokeratology in children

PURPOSE: To assess the relationship between short-term and long-term changes in power at different corneal locations relative to the change in central corneal power and the 2-year change in axial elongation relative to baseline in children fitted with orthokeratology contact lenses (OK). METHODS: Thirty-one white European subjects 6 to 12 years of age and with myopia −0.75 to −4.00 DS and astigmatism ≤1.00 DC were fitted with OK. Differences in refractive power 3 and 24 months post-OK in comparison with baseline and relative to the change in central corneal power were determined from corneal topography data in eight different corneal regions (i.e., N[nasal]1, N2, T[temporal]1, T2, I[inferior]1, I2, S[superior]1, S2), and correlated with OK-induced axial length changes at two years relative to baseline. RESULTS: After 2 years of OK lens wear, axial length increased by 0.48±0.18 mm (P0.05). CONCLUSION: The reduction in central corneal power and relative increase in paracentral and pericentral power induced by OK over 2 years were not significantly correlated with concurrent changes in axial length of white European children.

Using health-related quality of life instruments for children with long-term conditions : On the basis of a national quality registry system

Introduction: There has been a continuous development of new technologies in healthcare that are derived from national quality registries. However, this innovation needs to be translated into the workflow of healthcare delivery, to enable children with long-term conditions to get the best support possible to manage their health during everyday life. Since children living with long-term conditions experience different interference levels in their lives, healthcare professionals need to assess the impact of care on children’s day-to-day lives, as a complement to biomedical assessments. Aim: The overall aim of this thesis was to explore and describe the use of instruments about health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in outpatient care for children with long-term conditions on the basis of a national quality registry system. Methods: The research was conducted by using comparative, cross-sectional and explorative designs and data collection was performed by using different methods. The questionnaire DISABKIDS Chronic Generic Measure -37 was used as well as semi-structured interviews and video-recordings from consultations. Altogether, 156 children (8–18 years) and nine healthcare professionals participated in the studies. Children with Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) (n 131) answered the questionnaire DISABKIDS and children with rheumatic diseases, kidney diseases and T1D (n 25) were interviewed after their consultation at the outpatient clinic after the web-DISABKIDS had been used. In total, nine healthcare professionals used the HRQOL instrument as an assessment tool during the encounters which was video-recorded (n 21). Quantitative deductive content analysis was used to describe content in different HRQOL instruments. Statistical inference was used to analyse results from DISABKIDS and qualitative content analysis was used to analyse the interviews and video-recordings. Results: The findings showed that based on a biopsychosocial perspective, both generic and disease-specific instruments should be used to gain a comprehensive evaluation of the child’s HRQOL. The DISABKIDS instrument is applicable when describing different aspects of health concerning children with T1D. When DISABKIDS was used in the encounters, children expressed positive experiences about sharing their results with the healthcare professional. It was discovered that different approaches led to different outcomes for the child when the healthcare professionals were using DISABKIDS during the encounter. When an instructing approach is used, the child’s ability to learn more about their health and how to improve their health is limited. When an inviting or engaging approach is used by the professional, the child may become more involved during the conversations. Conclusions: It could be argued that instruments of HRQOL could be used as a complement to biomedical variables, to promote a biopsychosocial perspective on the child’s health. According to the children in this thesis, feedback on their results after answering to web-DISABKIDS is important, which implies that healthcare professionals need to prioritize time for discussions about results from HRQOL instruments in the encounters. If healthcare professionals involve the child in the discussion of the results of the HRQOL, misinterpreted answers could be corrected during the conversation. Concurrently, this claims that healthcare professionals invite and engage the child.

Long term betaine supplementation regulates genes involved in lipid and cholesterol metabolism of two muscles from an obese pig breed

This study evaluates the effects of betaine supplementation (1 g kg−1 for 20 weeks) on the regulation of genes involved in lipid and cholesterol metabolism of Longissimus lumborum and Biceps femoris from obese Alentejano pigs. Betaine supplementation led to an increase in total cholesterol in both muscles, complementing results previously published indicating a significant increase on the intramuscular lipid content. The expression of twelve genes involved in lipogenesis, lipolysis/FA oxidation, FA transport, and cholesterol metabolism, as well as two transcription factors were also evaluated. Genes related to lipid and cholesterol synthesis plus FA transport were consistently up-regulated in both muscles of betaine fed pigs. On the other hand, genes related to lipolysis/FA oxidation were not affected or down-regulated by betaine supplementation. Our data suggest that the underlying mechanism regulating IMF and cholesterol accumulation in Alentejano pigs supplemented with betaine is associated with the up-regulation of genes involved in lipid synthesis, FA transport, and cholesterol synthesis.

“A long-term mortality analysis of subsidized firms in rural areas: an empirical study in the Portuguese Alentejo region”

Studies have demonstrated that public policies to support private firms’ investment have the ability to promote entrepreneurship, but the sustainability of subsidized firms has not often been analysed. This paper aims to examine this dimension specifically through evaluating the mortality of subsidized firms in the long-term. The analysis focuses on a case study of the LEADER+ Programme in the Alentejo region of Portugal. With this purpose, the paper examines the activity status (active or not active) of 154 private, rural, for-profit firms in Alentejo that had received a subsidy to support investment between 2002 and 2008 under the LEADER+ Programme. The methodology is based on binary choice models in order to study the probability of these firms still being active. The explanatory variables used are the following: (1) the characteristics of entrepreneurs and managers’ strategic decisions, (2) firm profile and characteristics, (3) regional economic environment. Data assessment showed that the cumulative mortality rate of firms on 31st December 2013 is over 20 %. Interpretation of the regression model revealed that he probability of firms’ survival increases with higher investment, firm age and regional business concentration, whereas the number of applications made by firms has a negative impact on their survival. So it seems that for subsidized firms the amount of investment is as important as its frequency.

Essays in Economic Geography and Long-Term Development

This dissertation has two main themes: first, the economic impact of tourism on cities and, secondly, the determinants of European long-run development, with a focus on the pre-Industrial era. The common thread is the attempt to develop economic geography models that incorporate spatial frictions and are liable to be given empirical content. Chapter 1, written in conjunction with G. Alfredo Minerva, provides an empirical analysis of the relationship between tourism and economic activity across Italian municipalities, and lays down the basic elements of an urban theory of tourism in an a-spatial setting. Chapter 2 extends these ideas to a quantitative urban framework to study the economic impact and the welfare consequences of tourism into the city of Venice. The model is given empirical content thanks to a large collection of data at the Census tract level for the Municipality of Venice, and then used to perform counterfactual policty analysis. In chapter 3, with Matteo Santacesaria, we consider a setting where agents are continuously distributed over a two-dimensional heterogeneous geography, and are allowed to do business at a finite set of markets. We study the equilibrium partition of the economic space into a collection of mutually-exclusive market areas, and provide condition for this equilibrium partition to exist and to be unique. Finally, chapter 4 "The rise of (urban) Europe: a Quantitative-Spatial analysis", co-authored with Matteo Cervellati and Alex Lehner, sets up a quantitative economic geography model to understand the roots of the Industrial Revolution, in an attempt to match the evolution of the European urban network, and the corresponding city-size distribution, over the period A.D. 1000-1850. It highlights the importance of agricultural trade across cities for the emergence of large manufacturing hubs.

Patterns of long-term settlement and land exploitation in the region of the Nile First Cataract (Egypt)

The First Cataract region (Egypt) has always played a crucial role as a border area and a crossroads for cultures and people living in adjacent landscapes. The region has its central point in the modern city of Aswan, but it extends up to the Kom Ombo Plain in the north and reaches the Bab el-Kalabsha in the south. Its eastern and western limits cannot be defined with the same precision, given that they are located in deserts. This research focused on the landscape analysis of the region intended as a complex entanglement of archaeological evidence in a geographical and natural environment whose changes impacted and, simultaneously, were influenced by human activities. Settlement patterns and land use can give interesting information on how these relationships worked from a diachronic perspective and how they shaped the region’s characteristics. To understand the links between the human presence and its evidence and the landscape of the First Cataract region, the integration of various datasets was needed, from historical and archaeological ones to the remote sensing observation of large areas. An area corresponding to ca. 18.000 km2 has been selected for this research. The chronological framework has been chosen to cover a considerable period, from the beginning of the 5th millennium BCE to the 7th century AD. Multi-temporality and multifunctionality appear as two essential aspects when the archaeological evidence of the First Cataract region is considered in its geographical and topographical setting as a general context for settlement patterns and resource exploitation analyses. A combination of remote sensing data and topographical materials has been integrated with archaeological evidence to obtain information about resource exploitation strategies and settlement adaptation from a diachronic perspective.