Patterns and Drivers of the Agri-Food Intra-Industry Trade of European Union Countries

This paper investigates the drivers of agri-food intra-industry trade (IIT) indices in the European Union (EU-27) member states during the period from 2000–2011. The increased proportion of IIT in matched two-way agri-food trade of the EU-27 member states is consistent with economic integration and economic growth. When export prices were at least 15% higher than the import prices, high-vertical IIT, increased for most member states. This finding suggests that quality improvements occurred when comparing agri-food exports to similar imports of agri-food products. The IIT indices for both horizontal and vertical IIT are positively associated with higher economic development levels, new EU membership and EU enlargement. Additionally, as higher levels of economic development decreases, the size of the economy and marginal IIT increases the effects of agri-food trade liberalization on the costs of the labor market adjustment. Understanding how improvements in agri-food trade quality impact agribusiness and managerial competitiveness reveal significant policy implications.

Political economy of Caribbean drug trafficking: The case of the Dominican Republic

The purpose of this dissertation was to examine the relationship between narcotics trafficking and the processes of economic liberalization and democratization in the Caribbean. The salient social, political and economic processes were explored at each juncture of the drug trafficking chain to determine why certain groups and locales became integrated in the global narcotics economy. It also considered the national security implications of the global narcotics economy. ^ The Global Commodity Chain framework allowed the study to examine the social, political and economic processes that determine how a commodity is produced, transported, distributed and consumed in the global economy. A case study method was used to specify the commodity (cocaine) and locations (U.S. and Dominican Republic) where these processes were examined. ^ The important contributing factors in the study included: a liberalizing global economy, the social processes of migration, the formation of enclaves in the U.S., the opening of the political process and institutional weakness in the country of origin. All of these factors contributed to the Dominican Republic and Dominican migrants becoming key players in the cocaine commodity chain. It concluded that narcotics trafficking as a national security issue remains a fluid concept, contingent on specific cultural and historic antecedents. ^

An evaluation of exchange rate policy and economic adjustment in Nicaragua, 1993--1995

Since the late 1970's, but particularly since the mid-1980s, the economy of Nicaragua has had persistent and large macroeconomic imbalances, while GDP per-capita has declined to 1950s' levels. By the second half of the 1990s, huge fiscal deficits and a reduction of foreign financing resulted in record hyperinflation. The Sandinista government's (1979–1990) harsh stabilization program in 1988–89 had only modest and short-lived success. It was doomed by their inability to lower the public sector deficit due to the war, plus diminishing financial support from abroad. Hyperinflation stopped only after their 1990 electoral defeat ended the war and massive aid began to flow in. Five years later, macroeconomic stability is still very fragile. A sluggish recovery of export agriculture plus import liberalization, have impeded a reduction of huge trade and current account deficits. Facing the prospects of diminished aid flows, the government's strategy has hinged on the achievement of a real devaluation through a crawling-peg adjustment of the nominal rate. However, at the end of 1995 the situation of the external accounts was still critical, and the modest progress achieved was attributable to cyclical terms-of-trade improvement and changes in the political outlook of agricultural producers. Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model and a Social Accounting Matrix constructed for this dissertation, the importance of structural rigidities in production and demand in explaining such outcome is shown. It is shown that under the plausible structural assumptions incorporated in the model, the role of devaluation in the adjustment process is restricted by structural rigidities. Moreover, contrary to the premise of the orthodox economic thinking behind the economic program, it is the contractionary effect of devaluation more than its expenditure-switching effects that provide the basis for is use in solving the external sector's problems. A fixed nominal exchange rate is found to lead to adverse results. The broader conclusion that emerges from the study is that a new social compact and a rapid increase in infrastructure spending plus fiscal support for the traditional agro-export activities is at the center of a successful adjustment towards external viability in Nicaragua. ^

The direct investments in Latin America and the Caribbean in the 1990s of multinational enterprises headquartered in Spain

This thesis explains why multinational enterprises (MNEs) headquartered in Spain made significant investments in Latin America in the 1990s. Two independent variables are considered: structural reforms in Latin America, and liberalization in Spain. The first independent variable concerns the ways in which Latin American governments adopted a series of reforms that made their economies attractive to foreign investors. The second variable explains how the prospects of liberalization and foreign competition led Spanish firms to invest abroad in order to expand their businesses. The study will also show the competitive advantage of Spanish MNEs, vis-a-vis other foreign and local competitors in Latin America. This thesis takes an international political economy approach. The core of the thesis shows the development of Spanish direct investment in Latin America and the Caribbean in the 1990s. The theoretical perspectives on MNEs are provided by theory of the firm, industrial organizations theory and alliance theory. ^

Generational change among women in rural Valencia

The demise of Generalissimo Francisco Franco in 1975 and the subsequent democratization of Spain and its inclusion in the European Community have profoundly altered the patriarchal traditions of Spanish society. This study focused on the changes that women in Moixent, a rural village in Valencia, Spain, have experienced as a result of this liberalization of government policies, modernization, and economic development. ^ The purpose of this research was to illuminate the changing lives of two generations of women and their families in rural Valencia. The qualitative research techniques of participant observation, in-depth interviewing, and narrative analysis were used to present the different frames of reference of the two generations. Young working women in this rural community have come to rely on the help and support of their mothers in their attempts to work outside the home and improve their standard of living. As they enter Spain's modernizing economy their consumption patterns increasingly mimic those promoted by the global media, and especially television. As these young women take jobs outside the home they are having fewer children and dramatically altering the nation's demographic profile. ^ The older generation of women, who lived through decades of deprivation during the Spanish Civil War and Franco's long regime, support their daughters' new independence by assuming the arduous tasks of providing informal day care for their grandchildren and performing a variety of unpaid services for their daughters, including shopping, cooking, and housecleaning. This older generation of grandmothers is assuming a more difficult and demanding workload in what otherwise would be their retirement years. Hence they are the true enablers of their daughters' economic progress and modern patterns of consumption. ^ Other influences from the outside world have altered family farming practices. The participation of women in the harvests has declined, and most harvesting is now done by migrant foreign workers. As young women enter the workforce grandmothers strive to impart traditional values to their grandchildren, in the face of a rapidly changing world. ^

Colombian society in the 1990s: Fragmentation, legitimacy, and efficiency

During the nineties, Colombia experienced a two-fold process of restructuring. First, the political system underwent a process of constitutional reform in order to strengthen the state and increase its legitimacy, surpass the exclusionary character of the political regime, and achieve greater equity in the distribution of social resources. Second, the economy made the transition from a Keynesian development strategy to a strategy of “opening” or liberalization and internationalization of the economy, in order to increase the economic efficiency by reducing the “size” of the state and its regulatory role. The purpose of this dissertation is to analyze the interplay and contradictions of economic and political factors in the restructuring of the Colombian politico-economic system. ^ The main finding of this dissertation is that the simultaneous adoption of a neoliberal economic strategy and of the Political Constitution of 1991, have had a contradictory relationship: while the “political opening” has produced favorable conditions for fostering programs of democratization and social integration, the “economic opening” has counteracted that possibility given that it implies a social exclusionary process. This tension has aggravated the problems of political and social integration that have traditionally characterized Colombian society. ^ This crucial tension has also been characteristic of Latin America in the nineties. However, it has been neglected and undertheorized in most of the democratization studies of American comparative politics. Most of them lack consideration of structural aspects. According to those studies, the cause of regime change is determined by the strategic elections of actors. Contrary to these approaches, I develop a structural perspective. I consider that social phenomena are partly determined by structural factors, and scientific research should assign them decisive importance, since a fundamental basis for social action and transformation is to be found in the dynamics of relationships between individuals and structures and the development of contradictions within structures. ^

Structure of international cooperation in trade, investment and environment

This dissertation analyzes the obstacles against further cooperation in international economic relations. The first essay explains the gradual nature of trade liberalization. I show that existence of asymmetric information between governments provides a sufficient reason for gradualism to exist. Governments prefer starting small to reduce the cost of partner’s betrayal when there is sufficient degree of information asymmetry regarding the partner’s type. Learning about partner’s incentive structure enhances expectations, encouraging governments to increase their current level of cooperation. Specifically, the uninformed government’s subjective belief for the trading partner being good is improved as the partner acts cooperatively. This updated belief, in turn, lowers the subjective probability of future betrayal, enabling further progress in cooperation. The second essay analyzes the relationship between two countries facing two policy dilemmas in an environment with two way goods and capital flows. When issues are independent and countries are symmetric, signing separate agreements for tariffs (Free Trade Agreements-FTA) and for taxes (Tax Treaties-TT) provides the identical level of enforcement as signing a linked agreement. However, linkage can still improve the joint welfare by transferring the slack enforcement power in a case of asymmetric issues or countries. I report non-results in two cases where the policy issues are interconnected due to technological spillover effect of FDI. Moreover, I show that linking the agreements actually reduces enforcement when agreements are linked under a limited punishment rule and policy variables are strategic substitutes. The third essay investigates the welfare/enforcement consequences of linking trade and environmental agreements. In the standard literature, linking the agreements generate non-trivial results only when there is structural relation between the issues. I focus on institutional design of the linkage and show that even if environmental aspects of international trade are negligible linking the agreements might still have some interesting welfare implications under current GATT Rules. Specifically, when traded goods are substitutes in consumption, linking the environmental agreement with trade agreement under the Withdrawal of Equivalent Concession Rule (Article XXVIII) will reduce the enforcement. However, enforcement in environmental issue increases when the same rule is implemented in the absence of linkage.

Left behind: A farmer's fate in the age of sustainable development

Globalization is eroding the livelihoods of small farmers, a significant and vulnerable class, particularly in the developing world. The cost-price squeeze stemming from trade liberalization places farmers in a race to the bottom that leads to displacement, poverty, and environmental degradation. Scholars and activists have proposed that alternative trade initiatives offer a unique opportunity to reverse this trend by harnessing the power of the markets to reward producers of goods with embedded superior cultural, environmental, and social values. Alternative trade via certification schemes have become a de facto prescription for any location where there is a need to conciliate economic interest with conservation imperatives. Partnerships among commodity production farmers, elite manufacturers and wealthy northern consumers/activists do not necessarily have win-win outcomes. Paradoxically, the partnerships of farmers with external agencies have unexpected results. These partnerships develop into dependent relationships that become unsustainable in the absence of further transfers of capital. The institutions born of these partnerships are fragile. When these fledging institutions fail, farmers are left in the same situation that they were before the partnership, with only minor improvements to show after spending considerable amounts of social and financial capital. I hypothesize that these failures are born out of a belief in a universal understanding of sustainability. A discursive emphasis on consensus, equity and mutual benefit hides the fact that what for consumers it is a matter of choice, for producers is a matter of survival. The growth in consumers’ demand for certified products creates a race for farmers to meet these standards. My findings suggest that this race generates economically perverse effects. First, producers enter into a certification treadmill. Second, the local need for economic sustainability is ignored. Third, commodity based alternative trade schemes increase the exposure of communities to global shocks. I conclude by calling for a careful reassessment of sustainable development projects that promote certification schemes. The designers and implementers of these programs must include farmers’ agenda in the planning of these programs.

Transnational Capital and the Politics of Global Supply Chains

In the latest phase of globalization, transnational corporations based in the U.S. have worked closely with U.S. foreign policymakers to secure favorable foreign direct investment provisions within U.S. domestic legislation and within U.S. trade agreements. These interactions between transnational firms and the U.S. state have provided many of the preconditions for an expansion of foreign direct investment connected to capital liberalization and the growth of global supply chains from the 1980s to the present. This relationship is best conceptualized as representing a “transnational interest bloc,” whose policy objectives are incorporated within investment provisions in US-backed trade and investment agreements.

Essays on openness, economic integration, and *growth

This dissertation examines the relationship between the degree of openness to international trade and the level of growth experienced by a country. More precisely, it explores how trade liberalization and economic integration can lead to specialization in production, affect national levels of welfare, productivity, and competition and at the same time reinforce deflationary efforts. A large part of this investigation is carried out using industry-level data from Spain. ^

Essays on the political economy of trade policy and economic *development

This dissertation studies the political economy of trade policy in a developing country, namely Turkey, under different economic and political regimes. The research analyzes the effects of these different regimes on the import structure, the trade policy and the industrialization process in Turkey and derives implications for aggregate welfare. ^ In the second chapter, the effects of trade liberalization policies on import demand are examined. Using disaggregated industry-level data, import demand elasticities for various sectors have been computed, analyzed under different economic regimes, and compared with those of developed countries. The results are statistically significant and reliable, and conform to the predictions of economic theory. Estimation of these elasticities is also a necessary ingredient for the third chapter of the dissertation. ^ The third chapter examines the predictions of the state-of-the-art “Protection For Sale” model of Grossman and Helpman (1994). Employing advanced econometric methods and a unique data set, strong support is found for the fundamental predictions of the model in the context of Turkey. Specifically, the government is found to attach a much higher weight to social welfare than to political contributions. This weight is higher under the democratic regime than under the dictatorship, a result potentially of interest to all researchers in the area of political economy. ^ The fourth chapter looks at the effects of industry concentration and import price shocks on protection, promotion and the choice of policy instruments in Turkey. In this context, it examines and finds support for the predictions of some well-known models in the literature. ^

Trade, Politics, and Democratization: The 1997 Global Agreement between the European Union and Mexico

Mexico and the European Union signed a new Political and Economic Association Agreement in December 1997 and ultimately a free-trade agreement in March 2000, aiming to establish a new model of relations with a more dynamic trade and investment component. This article analyzes the 1997 agreement as background to the final accord. Economic and political changes in the 1990s modified both parties' participation in the international political economy, helping to overcome some of the structural obstacles to the relationship. The policy toward Latin America adopted by the EU in 1994 was influential. The negotiation process revealed divergences over the scope of the liberalization process and the so-called democracy clause.

Institutional Persistence in Eastern Europe: Economic and Political Legacies of Empires and Communism

This dissertation seeks to advance our understanding of the roles that institutions play in economic development. How do institutions evolve? What mechanisms are responsible for their persistence? What effects do they have on economic development?

I address these questions using historical and contemporary data from Eastern Europe and Russia. This area is relatively understudied by development economists. It also has a very interesting history. For one thing, for several centuries it was divided between different empires. For another, it experienced wars and socialism in the 20th century. I use some of these exogenous shocks as quasi-natural social experiments to study the institutional transformations and its effects on economic development both in the short and long run.

This first chapter explores whether economic, social, and political institutions vary in their resistance to policies designed to remove them. The empirical context for the analysis is Romania from 1690 to the 2000s. Romania represents an excellent laboratory for studying the persistence of different types of historical institutional legacies. In the 18th and 19th centuries, Romania was split between the Habsburg and Ottoman Empires, where political and economic institutions differed. The Habsburgs imposed less extractive institutions relative to the Ottomans: stronger rule of law, a more stable and predictable state, a more developed civil society, and less corruption. In the 20th century, the Romanian Communist regime tried deliberately to homogenize the country along all relevant dimensions. It was only partially successful. Using a regression discontinuity design, I document the persistence of economic outcomes, social capital, and political attitudes. First, I document remarkable convergence in urbanization, education, unemployment, and income between the two former empires. Second, regarding social capital, no significant differences in organizational membership, trust in bureaucracy, and corruption persist today. Finally, even though the Communists tried to change all political attitudes, significant discontinuities exist in current voting behavior at the former Habsburg-Ottoman border. Using data from the parliamentary elections of 1996-2008, I find that former Habsburg rule decreases by around 6 percentage points the vote share of the major post-Communist left party and increases by around 2 and 5 percentage points the vote shares of the main anti-Communist and liberal parties, respectively.

The second chapter investigates the effects of Stalin’s mass deportations on distrust in central authority. Four deported ethnic groups were not rehabilitated after Stalin’s death; they remained in permanent exile until the disintegration of the Soviet Union. This allows one to distinguish between the effects of the groups that returned to their homelands and those of the groups that were not allowed to return. Using regional data from the 1991 referendum on the future of the Soviet Union, I find that deportations have a negative interim effect on trust in central authority in both the regions of destination and those of origin. The effect is stronger for ethnic groups that remained in permanent exile in the destination regions. Using data from the Life in Transition Survey, the chapter also documents a long-term effect of deportations in the destination regions.

The third chapter studies the short-term effect of Russian colonization of Central Asia on economic development. I use data on the regions of origin of Russian settlers and push factors to construct an instrument for Russian migration to Central Asia. This instrument allows me to interpret the outcomes causally. The main finding is that the massive influx of Russians into the region during the 1897-1926 period had a significant positive effect on indigenous literacy. The effect is stronger for men and in rural areas. Evidently, interactions between natives and Russians through the paid labor market was an important mechanism of human capital transmission in the context of colonization.

The findings of these chapters provide additional evidence that history and institutions do matter for economic development. Moreover, the dissertation also illuminates the relative persistence of institutions. In particular, political and social capital legacies of institutions might outlast economic legacies. I find that most economic differences between the former empires in Romania have disappeared. By the same token, there are significant discontinuities in political outcomes. People in former Habsburg Romania provide greater support for liberalization, privatization, and market economy, whereas voters in Ottoman Romania vote more for redistribution and government control over the economy.

In the former Soviet Union, Stalin’s deportations during World War II have a long-term negative effect on social capital. Today’s residents of the destination regions of deportations show significantly lower levels of trust in central authority. This is despite the fact that the Communist regime tried to eliminate any source of opposition and used propaganda to homogenize people’s political and social attitudes towards the authorities. In Central Asia, the influx of Russian settlers had a positive short-term effect on human capital of indigenous population by the 1920s, which also might have persisted over time.

From a development perspective, these findings stress the importance of institutions for future paths of development. Even if past institutional differences are not apparent for a certain period of time, as was the case with the former Communist countries, they can polarize society later on, hampering economic development in the long run. Different institutions in the past, which do not exist anymore, can thus contribute to current political instability and animosity.

Culture stratégique et libéralisation politique au Myanmar

Le Myanmar traverse un processus de libéralisation politique qui a été entamé par le haut. Le régime militaire a tenu des élections générales en 2010, lesquelles ont placé au pouvoir un nouveau gouvernement composé à la fois de civils et de militaires. Depuis, la majorité des sanctions imposées par plusieurs États occidentaux au Myanmar ont été levées, et on observe une diversification des relations internationales du pays. Imbriqué à la sphère d’influence chinoise depuis quelques années, celui-ci rétablit des contacts diplomatiques et économiques avec l’Occident. Peu de chercheurs ont tenté d’expliquer les causes de cette transition politique, et le lien entre libéralisation politique et diversification des relations internationales n’a pas encore été expliqué. Ce mémoire propose de le faire en utilisant un modèle théorique issu de deux types de littérature, celle sur la culture stratégique et celle sur les transitions politiques. Il suggère que la libéralisation politique du Myanmar s’explique par les luttes d’influences au sein du régime entre deux sous-cultures stratégiques, les hardliners et les softliners. L’application des normes favorisées par les hardliners ayant échoué dans l’atteinte des objectifs stratégiques du régime, les softliners ont pu imposer leurs propres préférences normatives. Il propose également que la libéralisation politique était une étape nécessaire pour que le gouvernement birman puisse diversifier ses relations internationales.