Uncertainty in wind energy forecasting

Wind energy is the energy source that contributes most to the renewable energy mix of European countries. While there are good wind resources throughout Europe, the intermittency of the wind represents a major problem for the deployment of wind energy into the electricity networks. To ensure grid security a Transmission System Operator needs today for each kilowatt of wind energy either an equal amount of spinning reserve or a forecasting system that can predict the amount of energy that will be produced from wind over a period of 1 to 48 hours. In the range from 5m/s to 15m/s a wind turbine’s production increases with a power of three. For this reason, a Transmission System Operator requires an accuracy for wind speed forecasts of 1m/s in this wind speed range. Forecasting wind energy with a numerical weather prediction model in this context builds the background of this work. The author’s goal was to present a pragmatic solution to this specific problem in the ”real world”. This work therefore has to be seen in a technical context and hence does not provide nor intends to provide a general overview of the benefits and drawbacks of wind energy as a renewable energy source. In the first part of this work the accuracy requirements of the energy sector for wind speed predictions from numerical weather prediction models are described and analysed. A unique set of numerical experiments has been carried out in collaboration with the Danish Meteorological Institute to investigate the forecast quality of an operational numerical weather prediction model for this purpose. The results of this investigation revealed that the accuracy requirements for wind speed and wind power forecasts from today’s numerical weather prediction models can only be met at certain times. This means that the uncertainty of the forecast quality becomes a parameter that is as important as the wind speed and wind power itself. To quantify the uncertainty of a forecast valid for tomorrow requires an ensemble of forecasts. In the second part of this work such an ensemble of forecasts was designed and verified for its ability to quantify the forecast error. This was accomplished by correlating the measured error and the forecasted uncertainty on area integrated wind speed and wind power in Denmark and Ireland. A correlation of 93% was achieved in these areas. This method cannot solve the accuracy requirements of the energy sector. By knowing the uncertainty of the forecasts, the focus can however be put on the accuracy requirements at times when it is possible to accurately predict the weather. Thus, this result presents a major step forward in making wind energy a compatible energy source in the future.

Market-oriented new product development of functional beverages

Strategic reviews of the Irish Food and Beverage Industry have consistently emphasised the need for food and beverage firms to improve their innovation and marketing capabilities, in order to maintain competitiveness in both domestic and overseas markets. In particular, the functional food and beverages market has been singled out as an extremely important emerging market, which Irish firms could benefit from through an increased technological and market orientation. Although health and wellness have been the most significant drivers of new product development (NPD) in recent years, failure rates for new functional foods and beverages have been reportedly high. In that context, researchers in the US, UK, Denmark and Ireland have reported a marked divergence between NPD practices within food and beverage firms and normative advice for successful product development. The high reported failure rates for new functional foods and beverages suggest a failure to manage customer knowledge effectively, as well as a lack of knowledge management between functional disciplines involved in the NPD process. This research explored the concept of managing customer knowledge at the early stages of the NPD process, and applied it to the development of a range of functional beverages, through the use of advanced concept optimisation research techniques, which provided for a more market-oriented approach to new food product development. A sequential exploratory research design strategy using mixed research methods was chosen for this study. First, the qualitative element of this research investigated customers’ choice motives for orange juice and soft drinks, and explored their attitudes and perceptions towards a range of new functional beverage concepts through a combination of 15 in-depth interviews and 3 focus groups. Second, the quantitative element of this research consisted of 3 conjoint-based questionnaires administered to 400 different customers in each study in order to model their purchase preferences for chilled nutrient-enriched and probiotic orange juices, and stimulant soft drinks. The in-depth interviews identified the key product design attributes that influenced customers’ choice motives for orange juice. The focus group discussions revealed that groups of customers were negative towards the addition of certain functional ingredients to natural foods and beverages. K-means cluster analysis was used to quantitatively identify segments of customers with similar preferences for chilled nutrient-enriched and probiotic orange juices, and stimulant soft drinks. Overall, advanced concept optimisation research methods facilitate the integration of the customer at the early stages of the NPD process, which promotes a multi-disciplinary approach to new food product design. This research illustrated how advanced concept optimisation research methods could contribute towards effective and efficient knowledge management in the new food product development process.

Echoes of existentialism in the works of Carlos Fuentes

In this thesis I have set out to trace the echoes of existentialism in the work of the Mexican novelist, Carlos Fuentes scrutinizing, in particular, La región más transparente, La muerte de Artemio Cruz and Cambio de piel. In the opening segment of the thesis I outline the essential tenets of existentialist thought and how it became the predominant philosophical and literary movement of the early part of the twentieth-century. Stemming from the work of Sören Kierkegaard in Denmark towards the end of the nineteenth-century, it challenged the arid philosophies of previous generations and provided a new way of looking at man and the human condition. In this opening chapter, I study the works of the more important philosophers in this regard such as Heidegger, Sartre, Jaspers, Marcel, Unamuno, and Ortega y Gasset and show how each in his own way contributed to the further development of the new philosophy. Chapter 2 is concerned with the spread of existentialism to the Latin American continent. In the early part of the twentieth-century, Mexico was emerging from a turbulent revolutionary period and seeking a solution to the fractured nature of its society. The Spanish philosopher, Ortega y Gasset, and the many Spanish intellectuals who sought refuge from Franco’s dictatorship in Mexico, helped to popularise the new philosophy and these lively debates about existentialism served to underpin ideas around mexicanidad or Mexican national identity. Carlos Fuentes was deeply immersed in the debate of his time, positioned as he was as a prominent public intellectual. In La muerte de Artemio Cruz he shows us how great wealth and power are a poor recompense for the loss of love and compassion and lead only to alienation and selfishness. In his other best known novel, La región más transparente, he explores the rise of modern Mexico and its society – an inauthentic society that is corrupted by a scramble for wealth and self-aggrandizement. The final chapter is devoted to the study of Cambio de piel which is concerned with violence and alienation as central pillars of existence. The violence depicted here precipitates a crisis in the human condition and an accompanying sense of alienation. The thesis seeks to establish that existentialism is central not only to Fuentes’s literary concerns but also forms a part of his ethics as an artist.

Using ground reaction force to predict knee kinetic asymmetry following anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction.

Asymmetries in sagittal plane knee kinetics have been identified as a risk factor for anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) re-injury. Clinical tools are needed to identify the asymmetries. This study examined the relationships between knee kinetic asymmetries and ground reaction force (GRF) asymmetries during athletic tasks in adolescent patients following ACL reconstruction (ACL-R). Kinematic and GRF data were collected during a stop-jump task and a side-cutting task for 23 patients. Asymmetry indices between the surgical and non-surgical limbs were calculated for GRF and knee kinetic variables. For the stop-jump task, knee kinetics asymmetry indices were correlated with all GRF asymmetry indices (P < 0.05), except for loading rate. Vertical GRF impulse asymmetry index predicted peak knee moment, average knee moment, and knee work (R(2)  ≥ 0.78, P < 0.01) asymmetry indices. For the side-cutting tasks, knee kinetic asymmetry indices were correlated with the peak propulsion vertical GRF and vertical GRF impulse asymmetry indices (P < 0.05). Vertical GRF impulse asymmetry index predicted peak knee moment, average knee moment, and knee work (R(2)  ≥ 0.55, P < 0.01) asymmetry indices. The vertical GRF asymmetries may be a viable surrogate for knee kinetic asymmetries and therefore may assist in optimizing rehabilitation outcomes and minimizing re-injury rates.

Peace and war: trajectories of posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms before, during, and after military deployment in Afghanistan.

In the study reported here, we examined posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms in 746 Danish soldiers measured on five occasions before, during, and after deployment to Afghanistan. Using latent class growth analysis, we identified six trajectories of change in PTSD symptoms. Two resilient trajectories had low levels across all five times, and a new-onset trajectory started low and showed a marked increase of PTSD symptoms. Three temporary-benefit trajectories, not previously described in the literature, showed decreases in PTSD symptoms during (or immediately after) deployment, followed by increases after return from deployment. Predeployment emotional problems and predeployment traumas, especially childhood adversities, were predictors for inclusion in the nonresilient trajectories, whereas deployment-related stress was not. These findings challenge standard views of PTSD in two ways. First, they show that factors other than immediately preceding stressors are critical for PTSD development, with childhood adversities being central. Second, they demonstrate that the development of PTSD symptoms shows heterogeneity, which indicates the need for multiple measurements to understand PTSD and identify people in need of treatment.

The normative and the personal life: individual differences in life scripts and life story events among USA and Danish undergraduates.

Life scripts are culturally shared expectations about the order and timing of life events in a prototypical life course. American and Danish undergraduates produced life story events and life scripts by listing the seven most important events in their own lives and in the lives of hypothetical people living ordinary lives. They also rated their events on several scales and completed measures of depression, PTSD symptoms, and centrality of a negative event to their lives. The Danish life script replicated earlier work; the American life script showed minor differences from the Danish life script, apparently reflecting genuine differences in shared events as well as less homogeneity in the American sample. Both consisted of mostly positive events that came disproportionately from ages 15 to 30. Valence of life story events correlated with life script valence, depression, PTSD symptoms, and identity. In the Danish undergraduates, measures of life story deviation from the life script correlated with measures of depression and PTSD symptoms.

Inner speech and bilingual autobiographical memory: a Polish-Danish cross-cultural study.

Thirty years after fleeing from Poland to Denmark, 20 immigrants were enlisted in a study of bilingual autobiographical memory. Ten "early immigrators" averaged 24 years old at the time of immigration, and ten "late immigrators" averaged 34 years old at immigration. Although all 20 had spent 30 years in Denmark, early immigrators reported more current inner speech behaviours in Danish, whereas late immigrators showed more use of Polish. Both groups displayed proportionally more numerous autobiographical retrievals that were reported as coming to them internally in Polish (vs Danish) for the decades prior to immigration and more in Danish (vs Polish) after immigration. We propose a culture- and language-specific shaping of semantic and conceptual stores that underpins autobiographical and world knowledge.

Post-1945 Danish Piano Trio Literature: A Recording Dissertation

This recording dissertation surveys post-1945 literature written for piano trio (violin, violoncello and piano) by ten Danish composers. The literature was first considered for inclusion by searching a database provided by the Danish Music Information Center (www.mic.dk). Scores were rented from the publisher Edition Wilhelm Hansen AS, or purchased from the publisher Samfundet til Udgivelse af Dansk Musik. An additional score published by Viking Musikforlag was used as well. The music was then studied and evaluated for selection. During the selection process, the following criteria were considered: 1) quality of the compositions; 2) recognition of the composers at the national or international level; 3) whether the compositions had been previously recorded; and 4) variety of compositional styles. The selected works are written by Niels Viggo Bentzon, Vagn Holmboe, Anders Koppel, Herman D. Koppel, Bent Lorentzen, Anders Nordentoft, Per Norgard, Michael Nyvang, Karl Aage Rasmussen, and Poul Rovsing Olsen. The selected compositions were practiced, rehearsed, and performed under direct supervision of the composers and other expert musicians. In order to better understand the compositional style of each composer, relevant books, articles, and recordings were researched and studied. This recording dissertation is supported by a written document. A subjective preference for program balance was exercised to determine the order of recorded works. The written document is divided into chapters defined by composer, following the order of the recorded document, which include the composers' biographies and notes referring to the recorded compositions. The recording took place at the Manzius Gaarden, Birkerod, Denmark during three sessions: July 31-August 2, 2002, March 2 and 3, 2003, and June 2-4, 2003. The music for this dissertation was recorded by the members of the Jalina Trio; Line Fredens, violin, Janne Fredens, cello and Natsuki Fukasawa, piano. Aksel Trige, a well-respected recording engineer, was engaged for the recording and editing. Additionally, a Hamburg Steinway concert grand piano was rented and a Joseph Guarnerius filius Andreas Cremona violin (1706) was provided by the Augustinus Fonden, Denmark. The cellist used her own instrument, Vuillaume of Paris (c. 1850). The expense of this recording was partially paid by generous grants from the Augustinus Fonden, the Solist Foreningen af 1921, and the Dansk Musikerforbunds Kollective Rettighedsmidler. The compositions selected for this recording dissertation are assumed to be previously unrecorded, with the exception of Poul Rovsing Olsen's Trio II.

The airEXODUS evacuation model and its application to aircraft safety

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria, in cabin crew training and post-mortem accident investigation. As the risk of personal injury and the costs involved in performing full-scale certification trials are high, the development and use of these evacuation modelling tools are essential. Furthermore, evacuation models provide insight into the evacuation process that is impossible to derive from a single certification trial. The airEXODUS evacuation model has been under development since 1989 with support from the UK CAA and the aviation industry. In addition to describing the capabilities of the airEXODUS evacuation model, this paper describes the findings of a recent CAA project aimed at investigating model accuracy in predicting past certification trials. Furthermore, airEXODUS is used to examine issues related to the Blended Wing Body (BWB) and Very Large Transport Aircraft (VLTA). These radical new aircraft concepts pose considerable challenges to designers, operators and certification authorities. BWB concepts involving one or two decks with possibly four or more aisles offer even greater challenges. Can the largest exits currently available cope with passenger flow arising from four or five aisles? Do we need to consider new concepts in exit design? Should the main aisle be made wider to accommodate more passengers? In this paper we discuss various issues evacuation related issues associated VLTA and BWB aircraft and demonstrate how computer based evacuation models can be used to investigage these issues through examination of aisle/exit configurations for BWB cabin layouts.

Prey landscapes help identify potential foraging habitats for leatherback turtles in the NE Atlantic

Identifying key marine megavertebrate habitats has become ever more important as concern increases regarding global fisheries bycatch and accelerated climate change. This will be aided by a greater understanding of the patterns and processes determining the spatiotemporal distribution of species of conservation concern. We identify probable foraging grounds for leatherback turtles in the NE Atlantic using monthly landscapes of gelatinous organism distribution constructed from Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey data. Using sightings data (n = 2013 records, 1954 to 2003) from 9 countries (UK, Ireland, France, Belgium, The Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, Norway and Sweden), we show sea surface temperatures of approximately 10 to 12 degree C most likely indicate the lower thermal threshold for accessible habitats during seasonal foraging migrations to high latitudes. Integrating maps of gelatinous plankton as a possible indicator of prey distribution with thermal tolerance parameters demonstrates the dynamic (spatial and temporal) nature of NE Atlantic foraging habitats. We highlight the importance of body size- related thermal constraints in structuring leatherback foraging populations and demonstrate a latitudinal gradient in body size (Bergmann's rule) where smaller animals are excluded from higher latitude foraging areas. We highlight the marine area of the European continental shelf edge as being both thermally accessible and prey rich, and therefore potentially supporting appreciable densities of foraging leatherbacks, with some suitable areas not yet extensively surveyed.