Predicting population dynamics of weed biological control agents: science or gazing into crystal balls?

Various factors can influence the population dynamics of phytophages post introduction, of which climate is fundamental. Here we present an approach, using a mechanistic modelling package (CLIMEX), that at least enables one to make predictions of likely dynamics based on climate alone. As biological control programs will have minimal funding for basic work (particularly on population dynamics), we show how predictions can be made using a species geographical distribution, relative abundance across its range, seasonal phenology and laboratory rearing data. Many of these data sets are more likely to be available than long-term population data, and some can be incorporated into the exploratory phase of a biocontrol program. Although models are likely to be more robust the more information is available, useful models can be developed using information on species distribution alone. The fitted model estimates a species average response to climate, and can be used to predict likely geographical distribution if introduced, where the agent is likely to be more abundant (i.e. good locations) and more importantly for interpretation of release success, the likely variation in abundance over time due to intra- and inter-year climate variability. The latter will be useful in predicting both the seasonal and long-term impacts of the potential biocontrol agent on the target weed. We believe this tool may not only aid in the agent selection process, but also in the design of release strategies, and for interpretation of post-introduction dynamics and impacts. More importantly we are making testable predictions. If biological control is to become more of a science making and testing such hypothesis will be a key component.

Wage spillovers, inter-regional effects and the impact of inward investment

This paper evaluates the extent of inter-industry and inter-regional wage spillovers across the UK. An extensive body of literature exists suggesting that wages elsewhere affect wage determination and levels of satisfaction, but this paper extends the analysis of wage determination to examine the effects of inward investment in the process. Thus far the specific effect of foreign wages on domestic wage determination has not been evaluated. We employ industry- and regional-level panel data for the UK, and contrast results from alternative approaches to space-time modelling. Each supports the notion that such wage spillovers do occur, though assumptions made concerning the modelling of spatial interaction are important. Further, such wage spillovers are more widespread for skilled than for unskilled workers and also lower in areas of high unemployment. © 2006 Regional Studies Association.

Sociolinguistic variability in oral narrative.

This thesis begins with a sociolinguistic correlational study of three phonetic variables - (h), (t) and (ing) - as used by four occupational groups - nurses, chefs, hairdressers and taxi-drivers. The groups were selected to incorporate three independent variables: sex (male-dominated versus female-dominated occupations); training (length and specialisation - nurses and chefs being more specialised than hairdressers and taxi-drivers) and location (the populations were selected from two cities - Liverpool and Birmingham). Although the correlational work demonstrates intra-sex and occupation consistency in speakers' choice of linguistic variants (females (particularly nurses) being significantly closer to the prestige norm), it is essentially non-explanatory and cannot accout for narrative dynamics and style shift. Therefore, an in-depth qualitative examination of the data (which draws mainly on Narrative and Discourse Analysis) forms the major part of the analysis. The study first analyses features common to all the narratives, direct speech, expressive phonology and linguistic ambiguity emerging as characteristic of all humorous storytelling. Secondly, three major sources of inter-personal variation are invetigated: narrator perspective, sex and occuptational role. Perspective is found to vary with topic and personality, greater narrator involvement coinciding with a higher proportion of internal evaluation devices. Sex differences include topic choice and bonding in the storytelling sessions. Sex differences are also evident in style shifting, where the narrator mimics the voice of a character in the narrative (aodpting segmental and/or prosodic tokens to signal a change of persona). The research finds that female narrators rarely employ segmental accommodation downwards on the social scale (whereas men do), but are on the other hand adept at using prosodic effects for mimicry. Taxi-drivers emerge as the group with the most distinctive narrative flair, a fact which is related to their occupation. The conclusion stresses a need for both quantitative and qualitative approaches to data; the importance of occupational role, as opposed to sex role per se in determining narrative conventions; the view of narrative as a negotiable entity, which is the product of relationships among participants; and the importance of considering the totality of the communicative act.

Modelling the underlying principles of human aesthetic preference in evolutionary art

Our understanding of creativity is limited, yet there is substantial research trying to mimic human creativity in artificial systems and in particular to produce systems that automatically evolve art appreciated by humans. We propose here to study human visual preference through observation of nearly 500 user sessions with a simple evolutionary art system. The progress of a set of aesthetic measures throughout each interactive user session is monitored and subsequently mimicked by automatic evolution in an attempt to produce an image to the liking of the human user.

Similarity between class A and class B G-protein-coupled receptors exemplified through calcitonin gene-related peptide receptor modelling and mutagenesis studies

Modelling class B G-protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) using class A GPCR structural templates is difficult due to lack of homology. The plant GPCR, GCR1, has homology to both class A and class B GPCRs. We have used this to generate a class A-class B alignment, and by incorporating maximum lagged correlation of entropy and hydrophobicity into a consensus score, we have been able to align receptor transmembrane regions. We have applied this analysis to generate active and inactive homology models of the class B calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) receptor, and have supported it with site-directed mutagenesis data using 122 CGRP receptor residues and 144 published mutagenesis results on other class B GPCRs. The variation of sequence variability with structure, the analysis of polarity violations, the alignment of group-conserved residues and the mutagenesis results at 27 key positions were particularly informative in distinguishing between the proposed and plausible alternative alignments. Furthermore, we have been able to associate the key molecular features of the class B GPCR signalling machinery with their class A counterparts for the first time. These include the [K/R]KLH motif in intracellular loop 1, [I/L]xxxL and KxxK at the intracellular end of TM5 and TM6, the NPXXY/VAVLY motif on TM7 and small group-conserved residues in TM1, TM2, TM3 and TM7. The equivalent of the class A DRY motif is proposed to involve Arg(2.39), His(2.43) and Glu(3.46), which makes a polar lock with T(6.37). These alignments and models provide useful tools for understanding class B GPCR function.

Monetary variability and monetary variables in the Franc zone

Failure to detect or account for structural changes in economic modelling can lead to misleading policy inferences, which can be perilous, especially for the more fragile economies of developing countries. Using three potential monetary policy instruments (Money Base, M0, and Reserve Money) for 13 member-states of the CFA Franc zone over the period 1989:11-2002:09, we investigate the magnitude of information extracted by employing data-driven techniques when analyzing breaks in time-series, rather than the simplifying practice of imposing policy implementation dates as break dates. The paper also tests Granger's (1980) aggregation theory and highlights some policy implications of the results.

Chemometric modelling to relate antioxidants, neutral lipid fatty acids and flavour components in chicken breast

Relationships among quality factors in retailed free-range, corn-fed, organic, and conventional chicken breasts (9) were modeled using chemometric approaches. Use of principal component analysis (PCA) to neutral lipid composition data explained the majority (93%) of variability (variance) in fatty acid contents in 2 significant multivariate factors. PCA explained 88 and 75% variance in 3 factors for, respectively, flame ionization detection (FID) and nitrogen phosphorus (NPD) components in chromatographic flavor data from cooked chicken after simultaneous distillation extraction. Relationships to tissue antioxidant contents were modeled. Partial least square regression (PLS2), interrelating total data matrices, provided no useful models. By using single antioxidants as Y variables in PLS (1), good models (r2 values > 0.9) were obtained for alpha-tocopherol, glutathione, catalase, glutathione peroxidase, and reductase and FID flavor components and among the variables total mono and polyunsaturated fatty acids and subsets of FID, and saturated fatty acid and NPD components. Alpha-tocopherol had a modest (r2 = 0.63) relationship with neutral lipid n-3 fatty acid content. Such factors thus relate to flavor development and quality in chicken breast meat.

Modelling firm innovation using panel probit estimators

Firm-level innovation is investigated using three probit panel estimators, which control for unobserved heterogeneity, and a standard probit estimator. Results indicate the standard probit model is misspecified and that inter-firm networks are important for innovation.

Semantic Modelling for Product Line Engineering

The aim of our work is to present solutions and a methodical support for automated techniques and procedures in domain engineering, in particular for variability modeling. Our approach is based upon Semantic Modeling concepts, for which semantic description, representation patterns and inference mechanisms are defined. Thus, model-driven techniques enriched with semantics will allow flexibility and variability in representation means, reasoning power and the required analysis depth for the identification, interpretation and adaptation of artifact properties and qualities.

The dual effect of normobaric hypoxia on heart rate variability and substrate partitioning following interval cycling

Recent studies have shown the importance of the beat-by-beat changes in heart rate influenced by the autonomic nervous system (ANS), or heart rate variability (HRV). The purpose of this study was to examine the lasting effects of hypoxic exercise on HRV, and its influences on substrate usage. Results from this study could lead an increased understanding on this topic. Eight active healthy males (age: 31±11 years; height: 180±7 cm; weight: 83±8 kg; VO₂max (maximal oxygen consumption): 4.4±0.6 L•min⁻¹) underwent normoxic and hypoxic (FᵢO₂= 0.15) conditions during high-intensity interval (HIIT) cycling (70%-high interval, 35%-rest interval). Cycling intensity was determined by a peak power output cycling test. Each experimental session consisted of a basal metabolic rate determination, up to 45-minutes of HIIT cycling, and three 30-minute post-exercise metabolic rate measurements (spanning 3 hours and 15 minutes after exercise). During exercise, RPE was higher (p<0.01) and LAC (lactate) increased (p=0.001) at each point of time in hypoxia, with no change in normoxia. After hypoxic exercise, the SNS/PNS ratio (overall ANS activity) was significantly higher (p<0.01) and significantly decreased through time in both conditions (p<0.01). In addition, a significant interaction between time and conditions (p<0.02) showed a decrease in LAC concentration through time post-hypoxic exercise. The findings showed that a single bout of hypoxic exercise alters ANS activity post-exercise along with shifting substrate partitioning from glycolytic to lipolytic energy production. The significant decrease in LAC concentration post-hypoxic exercise supports the notion that hypoxic HIIT induces a greater muscle glycogen depletion leading to increased fat oxidation to sustain glycogenesis and gluconeogenesis to maintain blood glucose level during recovery.

Bone morphology of the femur and tibia captured by statistical shape modelling predicts rapid bone loss in acute spinal cord injury patients

We would like to thank the study participants and the clinical and research staff at the Queen Elizabeth National Spinal Injury Unit, as without them this study would not have been possible. We are grateful for the funding received from Glasgow Research Partnership in Engineering for the employment of SC during data collection for this study. We would like to thank the Royal Society of Edinburgh's Scottish Crucible scheme for providing the opportunity for this collaboration to occur. We are also indebted to Maria Dumitrascuta for her time and effort in producing inter-repeatability results for the shape models.

Bone morphology of the femur and tibia captured by statistical shape modelling predicts rapid bone loss in acute spinal cord injury patients

We would like to thank the study participants and the clinical and research staff at the Queen Elizabeth National Spinal Injury Unit, as without them this study would not have been possible. We are grateful for the funding received from Glasgow Research Partnership in Engineering for the employment of SC during data collection for this study. We would like to thank the Royal Society of Edinburgh's Scottish Crucible scheme for providing the opportunity for this collaboration to occur. We are also indebted to Maria Dumitrascuta for her time and effort in producing inter-repeatability results for the shape models.

Enhancing non-refractory aerosol apportionment from an urban industrial site through receptor modelling of complete high time-resolution aerosol mass spectra

Receptor modelling was performed on quadrupole unit mass resolution aerosol mass spectrometer (Q-AMS) sub-micron particulate matter (PM) chemical speciation measurements from Windsor, Ontario, an industrial city situated across the Detroit River from Detroit, Michigan. Aerosol and trace gas measurements were collected on board Environment Canada’s CRUISER mobile laboratory. Positive matrix factorization (PMF) was performed on the AMS full particle-phase mass spectrum (PMFFull MS) encompassing both organic and inorganic components. This approach was compared to the more common method of analysing only the organic mass spectra (PMFOrg MS). PMF of the full mass spectrum revealed that variability in the non-refractory sub-micron aerosol concentration and composition was best explained by six factors: an amine-containing factor (Amine); an ammonium sulphate and oxygenated organic aerosol containing factor (Sulphate-OA); an ammonium nitrate and oxygenated organic aerosol containing factor (Nitrate-OA); an ammonium chloride containing factor (Chloride); a hydrocarbon like organic aerosol (HOA) factor; and a moderately oxygenated organic aerosol factor (OOA). PMF of the organic mass spectrum revealed three factors of similar composition to some of those revealed through PMFFull MS: Amine, HOA and OOA. Including both the inorganic and organic mass proved to be a beneficial approach to analysing the unit mass resolution AMS data for several reasons. First, it provided a method for potentially calculating more accurate sub-micron PM mass concentrations, particularly when unusual factors are present, in this case, an Amine factor. As this method does not rely on a priori knowledge of chemical species, it circumvents the need for any adjustments to the traditional AMS species fragmentation patterns to account for atypical species, and can thus lead to more complete factor profiles. It is expected that this method would be even more useful for HR-ToF-AMS data, due to the ability to better understand the chemical nature of atypical factors from high resolution mass spectra. Second, utilizing PMF to extract factors containing inorganic species allowed for the determination of extent of neutralization, which could have implications for aerosol parameterization. Third, subtler differences in organic aerosol components were resolved through the incorporation of inorganic mass into the PMF matrix. The additional temporal features provided by the inorganic aerosol components allowed for the resolution of more types of oxygenated organic aerosol than could be reliably re-solved from PMF of organics alone. Comparison of findings from the PMFFull MS and PMFOrg MS methods showed that for the Windsor airshed, the PMFFull MS method enabled additional conclusions to be drawn in terms of aerosol sources and chemical processes. While performing PMFOrg MS can provide important distinctions between types of organic aerosol, it is shown that including inorganic species in the PMF analysis can permit further apportionment of organics for unit mass resolution AMS mass spectra.

Improving the use of G-CSF during chemotherapy using physiological mathematical modelling : a quantitative systems pharmacology approach

La diminution des doses administrées ou même la cessation complète d'un traitement chimiothérapeutique est souvent la conséquence de la réduction du nombre de neutrophiles, qui sont les globules blancs les plus fréquents dans le sang. Cette réduction dans le nombre absolu des neutrophiles, aussi connue sous le nom de myélosuppression, est précipitée par les effets létaux non spécifiques des médicaments anti-cancéreux, qui, parallèlement à leur effet thérapeutique, produisent aussi des effets toxiques sur les cellules saines. Dans le but d'atténuer cet impact myélosuppresseur, on administre aux patients un facteur de stimulation des colonies de granulocytes recombinant humain (rhG-CSF), une forme exogène du G-CSF, l'hormone responsable de la stimulation de la production des neutrophiles et de leurs libération dans la circulation sanguine. Bien que les bienfaits d'un traitement prophylactique avec le G-CSF pendant la chimiothérapie soient bien établis, les protocoles d'administration demeurent mal définis et sont fréquemment déterminés ad libitum par les cliniciens. Avec l'optique d'améliorer le dosage thérapeutique et rationaliser l'utilisation du rhG-CSF pendant le traitement chimiothérapeutique, nous avons développé un modèle physiologique du processus de granulopoïèse, qui incorpore les connaissances actuelles de pointe relatives à la production des neutrophiles des cellules souches hématopoïétiques dans la moelle osseuse. À ce modèle physiologique, nous avons intégré des modèles pharmacocinétiques/pharmacodynamiques (PK/PD) de deux médicaments: le PM00104 (Zalypsis®), un médicament anti-cancéreux, et le rhG-CSF (filgrastim). En se servant des principes fondamentaux sous-jacents à la physiologie, nous avons estimé les paramètres de manière exhaustive sans devoir recourir à l'ajustement des données, ce qui nous a permis de prédire des données cliniques provenant de 172 patients soumis au protocol CHOP14 (6 cycles de chimiothérapie avec une période de 14 jours où l'administration du rhG-CSF se fait du jour 4 au jour 13 post-chimiothérapie). En utilisant ce modèle physio-PK/PD, nous avons démontré que le nombre d'administrations du rhG-CSF pourrait être réduit de dix (pratique actuelle) à quatre ou même trois administrations, à condition de retarder le début du traitement prophylactique par le rhG-CSF. Dans un souci d'applicabilité clinique de notre approche de modélisation, nous avons investigué l'impact de la variabilité PK présente dans une population de patients, sur les prédictions du modèle, en intégrant des modèles PK de population (Pop-PK) des deux médicaments. En considérant des cohortes de 500 patients in silico pour chacun des cinq scénarios de variabilité plausibles et en utilisant trois marqueurs cliniques, soient le temps au nadir des neutrophiles, la valeur du nadir, ainsi que l'aire sous la courbe concentration-effet, nous avons établi qu'il n'y avait aucune différence significative dans les prédictions du modèle entre le patient-type et la population. Ceci démontre la robustesse de l'approche que nous avons développée et qui s'apparente à une approche de pharmacologie quantitative des systèmes (QSP). Motivés par l'utilisation du rhG-CSF dans le traitement d'autres maladies, comme des pathologies périodiques telles que la neutropénie cyclique, nous avons ensuite soumis l'étude du modèle au contexte des maladies dynamiques. En mettant en évidence la non validité du paradigme de la rétroaction des cytokines pour l'administration exogène des mimétiques du G-CSF, nous avons développé un modèle physiologique PK/PD novateur comprenant les concentrations libres et liées du G-CSF. Ce nouveau modèle PK a aussi nécessité des changements dans le modèle PD puisqu’il nous a permis de retracer les concentrations du G-CSF lié aux neutrophiles. Nous avons démontré que l'hypothèse sous-jacente de l'équilibre entre la concentration libre et liée, selon la loi d'action de masse, n'est plus valide pour le G-CSF aux concentrations endogènes et mènerait en fait à la surestimation de la clairance rénale du médicament. En procédant ainsi, nous avons réussi à reproduire des données cliniques obtenues dans diverses conditions (l'administration exogène du G-CSF, l'administration du PM00104, CHOP14). Nous avons aussi fourni une explication logique des mécanismes responsables de la réponse physiologique aux deux médicaments. Finalement, afin de mettre en exergue l’approche intégrative en pharmacologie adoptée dans cette thèse, nous avons démontré sa valeur inestimable pour la mise en lumière et la reconstruction des systèmes vivants complexes, en faisant le parallèle avec d’autres disciplines scientifiques telles que la paléontologie et la forensique, où une approche semblable a largement fait ses preuves. Nous avons aussi discuté du potentiel de la pharmacologie quantitative des systèmes appliquées au développement du médicament et à la médecine translationnelle, en se servant du modèle physio-PK/PD que nous avons mis au point.