Risk assessment in life-cycle costing for road asset management

Queensland Department of Main Roads, Australia, spends approximately A$ 1 billion annually for road infrastructure asset management. To effectively manage road infrastructure, firstly road agencies not only need to optimise the expenditure for data collection, but at the same time, not jeopardise the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates could be accurately estimated. And finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must provide a certain degree of reliability. This paper presents the results of case studies in using the probability-based method for an integrated approach (i.e. assessing optimal costs of pavement strength data collection; calibrating deterioration prediction models that suit local condition and assessing risk-adjusted budget estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation for assessing life-cycle budget estimates). The probability concept is opening the path to having the means to predict life-cycle maintenance and rehabilitation budget estimates that have a known probability of success (e.g. produce budget estimates for a project life-cycle cost with 5% probability of exceeding). The paper also presents a conceptual decision-making framework in the form of risk mapping in which the life-cycle budget/cost investment could be considered in conjunction with social, environmental and political issues.

Framework for investment decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.

Comparative study of guidelines and practices for building infrastructure asset management

This paper presents a comparative study of primarily Australian (and limited international) practices and guidelines on Buildings Asset Management (BAM). The objective of this study was to identify potential gaps in current practices and potential areas of research for further improvement. The paper starts with an overview of BAM. Later sections cover current BAM practices and guidelines across different states of Australia; give a limited overview of international practices and concludes with the authors’ observations.

Road Asset Management Investment

Australias civil infrastructure assets of roads, bridges, railways, buildings and other structures are worth billions of dollars. To effectively manage road infrastructures, road agencies firstly need to optimise the expenditure for data collection whilst not jeopardising the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates can be accurately calculated. Finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must be reasonably reliable.

A soft approach to solving hard problems in construction project management

Construction projects are faced with a challenge that must not be underestimated. These projects are increasingly becoming highly competitive, more complex, and difficult to manage. They become ‘wicked problems’, which are difficult to solve using traditional approaches. Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) is a systems approach that is used for analysis and problem solving in such complex and messy situations. SSM uses “systems thinking” in a cycle of action research, learning and reflection to help understand the various perceptions that exist in the minds of the different people involved in the situation. This paper examines the benefits of applying SSM to wicked problems in construction project management, especially those situations that are challenging to understand and difficult to act upon. It includes relevant examples of its use in dealing with the confusing situations that incorporate human, organizational and technical aspects.

Extending knowledge management across the supply chains in the construction industry : knowledge sharing in construction supply chains

Supply chain management and knowledge management have emerged as two distinct business philosophies in the last decade. Both are making rapid inroads into the construction industry. The premise of this paper is that knowledge management would make it possible for all the trading partners in a supply chain to reap benefits. Current research in knowledge management in the construction industry is generally targeting those big organisations that are main contractors. This has restricted the scope of knowledge management, and limits the benefits to a few, rather than the whole industry. If the construction industry as a whole is to prosper and improve its productivity, strategies for knowledge management strategy at the industry level must be established. This paper argues the case for extending the scope of knowledge management across the full extent of the supply chain, and attempts to identify the benefits that may arise out of sharing knowledge across the supply chain.

Five case studies applying soft systems methodology to knowledge management

Construction projects are faced with a challenge that must not be underestimated. These projects are increasingly becoming highly competitive, more complex, and difficult to manage. They become problems that are difficult to solve using traditional approaches. Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) is a systems approach that is used for analysis and problem solving in such complex and messy situations. SSM uses “systems thinking” in a cycle of action research, learning and reflection to help understand the various perceptions that exist in the minds of the different people involved in the situation. This paper examines the benefits of applying SSM to problems of knowledge management in construction project management, especially those situations that are challenging to understand and difficult to act upon. It includes five case studies of its use in dealing with the confusing situations that incorporate human, organizational and technical aspects.

Comparison of 3D finite element analysis derived stiffness and BMD to determine the failure load of the excised proximal femur

Introduction: Bone mineral density (BMD) is currently the preferred surrogate for bone strength in clinical practice. Finite element analysis (FEA) is a computer simulation technique that can predict the deformation of a structure when a load is applied, providing a measure of stiffness (Nmm−1). Finite element analysis of X-ray images (3D-FEXI) is a FEA technique whose analysis is derived froma single 2D radiographic image. Methods: 18 excised human femora had previously been quantitative computed tomography scanned, from which 2D BMD-equivalent radiographic images were derived, and mechanically tested to failure in a stance-loading configuration. A 3D proximal femur shape was generated from each 2D radiographic image and used to construct 3D-FEA models. Results: The coefficient of determination (R2%) to predict failure load was 54.5% for BMD and 80.4% for 3D-FEXI. Conclusions: This ex vivo study demonstrates that 3D-FEXI derived from a conventional 2D radiographic image has the potential to significantly increase the accuracy of failure load assessment of the proximal femur compared with that currently achieved with BMD. This approach may be readily extended to routine clinical BMD images derived by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. Crown Copyright © 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of IPEM. All rights reserved

The efficacy of waste management plans in Australian commercial construction refurbishment projects

Renovation and refurbishment of the existing commercial building stock is a growing area of total construction activity and a significant generator of waste sent to landfill in Australia. A written waste management plan (WMP) is a widespread regulatory requirement for commercial office redevelopment projects. There is little evidence, however, that WMPs actually increase the quantity of waste that is ultimately diverted from landfill. Some reports indicate an absence of any formal verification or monitoring process by regulators to assess the efficacy of the plans. In order to gauge the extent of the problem a survey was conducted of twenty four consultants and practitioners involved in commercial office building refurbishment projects to determine the state of current practice with regard to WMPs and to elicit suggestions with regard to ways of making the process more effective. Considerable variation in commitment to recycling policies was encountered indicating a need to revisit waste minimisation practices if the environmental performance of refurbishment projects is to be improved.

Adopting BIM for Facilities Adopting BIM for Facilities Management : Solutions for Managing the Sydney Opera House

The digital modelling research stream of the Sydney Opera House FM Exemplar Project has demonstrated significant benefits in digitising design documentation and operational and maintenance manuals. Since Sydney Opera House did not have digital models of its structure, there was an opportunity to investigate the application of digital modelling using standardised Building Information Models (BIM) to support facilities management (FM).The focus of this investigation was on the following areas:the re-usability of standardised BIM for FM purposesthe potential of BIM as an information framework acting as integrator for various FM data sources the extendibility and flexibility of the BIM to cope with business-specific data and requirements commercial FM software using standardised BIMthe ability to add (organisation-specific) intelligence to the modela roadmap for Sydney Opera House to adopt BIM for FM.

A forward and backward secure key management in wireless sensor networks for PCS/SCADA

Process Control Systems (PCSs) or Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems have recently been added to the already wide collection of wireless sensor networks applications. The PCS/SCADA environment is somewhat more amenable to the use of heavy cryptographic mechanisms such as public key cryptography than other sensor application environments. The sensor nodes in the environment, however, are still open to devastating attacks such as node capture, which makes designing a secure key management challenging. In this paper, a key management scheme is proposed to defeat node capture attack by offering both forward and backward secrecies. Our scheme overcomes the pitfalls which Nilsson et al.'s scheme suffers from, and is not more expensive than their scheme.

Fusion of in-vehicle sensor data to develop Intelligent Driver Training System (IDTS)

The over represented number of novice drivers involved in crashes is alarming. Driver training is one of the interventions aimed at mitigating the number of crashes that involve young drivers. To our knowledge, Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) have never been comprehensively used in designing an intelligent driver training system. Currently, there is a need to develop and evaluate ADAS that could assess driving competencies. The aim is to develop an unsupervised system called Intelligent Driver Training System (IDTS) that analyzes crash risks in a given driving situation. In order to design a comprehensive IDTS, data is collected from the Driver, Vehicle and Environment (DVE), synchronized and analyzed. The first implementation phase of this intelligent driver training system deals with synchronizing multiple variables acquired from DVE. RTMaps is used to collect and synchronize data like GPS, vehicle dynamics and driver head movement. After the data synchronization, maneuvers are segmented out as right turn, left turn and overtake. Each maneuver is composed of several individual tasks that are necessary to be performed in a sequential manner. This paper focuses on turn maneuvers. Some of the tasks required in the analysis of ‘turn’ maneuver are: detect the start and end of the turn, detect the indicator status change, check if the indicator was turned on within a safe distance and check the lane keeping during the turn maneuver. This paper proposes a fusion and analysis of heterogeneous data, mainly involved in driving, to determine the risk factor of particular maneuvers within the drive. It also explains the segmentation and risk analysis of the turn maneuver in a drive.

Load during prosthetic gait : is direct measurement better than inverse dynamics?

The knee forces and moments estimated by inverse dynamics and directly measured by a multiaxial transducer were compared during the gait of a transfemoral amputee. The estimated and directly measured forces and moments were relatively close. However, 3D inverse dynamics estimated only partially the forces and moments associated with the deformation of the prosthetic foot and locking of knee mechanism.

Senior management teams in schools : understanding their dynamics, enhancing their effectiveness

Increasingly it has been argued that senior management teams (SMTs), comprising principals, deputy heads and other personnel, play a critical role in the governance of schools. In recent years, many researchers have drawn upon the tools of micropolitics to illuminate the relationships, dynamics and power plays between and amongst members of SMTs. The paper has two foci. Firstly, it overviews some of the seminal literature in the field of SMTs and micropolitics in an attempt to identify the working practices of and challenges facing members of SMTs. Secondly, it discusses an instrument, the TEAM Development Questionnaire, that emerged from a synthesis of this writing and research. The questionnaire presented here was especially devised to use with members of SMTs to help them (i) identify the dynamics amongst team members; and (ii) identify areas for the team to improve. A set of procedures for implementing the TEAM Development Questionnaire is provided to demonstrate its application to the field.