Qualitative modelling of sustainable energy scenarios: An application and extension of the Bon Qualitative Input-Output model

Climate change is one of the major challenges facing economic systems at the start of the 21st century. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will require both restructuring the energy supply system (production) and addressing the efficiency and sufficiency of the social uses of energy (consumption). The energy production system is a complicated supply network of interlinked sectors with 'knock-on' effects throughout the economy. End use energy consumption is governed by complex sets of interdependent cultural, social, psychological and economic variables driven by shifts in consumer preference and technological development trajectories. To date, few models have been developed for exploring alternative joint energy production-consumption systems. The aim of this work is to propose one such model. This is achieved in a methodologically coherent manner through integration of qualitative input-output models of production, with Bayesian belief network models of consumption, at point of final demand. The resulting integrated framework can be applied either (relatively) quickly and qualitatively to explore alternative energy scenarios, or as a fully developed quantitative model to derive or assess specific energy policy options. The qualitative applications are explored here.

Increasing detection rate of user-to-root attacks using genetic algorithms

An extensive set of machine learning and pattern classification techniques trained and tested on KDD dataset failed in detecting most of the user-to-root attacks. This paper aims to provide an approach for mitigating negative aspects of the mentioned dataset, which led to low detection rates. Genetic algorithm is employed to implement rules for detecting various types of attacks. Rules are formed of the features of the dataset identified as the most important ones for each attack type. In this way we introduce high level of generality and thus achieve high detection rates, but also gain high reduction of the system training time. Thenceforth we re-check the decision of the user-to- root rules with the rules that detect other types of attacks. In this way we decrease the false-positive rate. The model was verified on KDD 99, demonstrating higher detection rates than those reported by the state- of-the-art while maintaining low false-positive rate.

ENABLE: a wrist worn device with integrated accessible services to support old people living independently and safely at home

This RTD project, 2007-2009, is partly funded by the European Commission, in Framework Programme 6. It aims to assist elderly people for living well, independently and at case. ENABLE will provide a number of services for elderly people based on the new technology provided by mobile phones. The project is developing a Wrist unit with both integrated and external sensors, and with a radio frequency link to a mobile phone. Dedicated ENABLE software running on the wrist unit and mobile phone makes these services fully accessible for the elderly users. This paper outlines the fundamental motivation and the approach which currently is undertaken in order to collect the more detailed user needs and requirements. The general architecture and the design of the ENABLE system are outlined.

ENABLE - a view on user's needs

The ENABLE project, which is partly funded by the European Commission, aims to assist elderly people to live well, independently and at case. In this project a wrist unit with both integrated and external sensors, and with a radio frequency link to a mobile phone. will be developed. ENABLE will provide a number of services for elderly people. among them also a remote control service for the home environment. This paper briefly describes the project in general and then focuses on the initial user needs investigation which was carried Out in early 2007 in six different European countries. The provisional findings are discussed and an outlook on the ongoing and future project work is given. A special focus of this paper is on the environmental control service.

Sparse model identification using orthogonal forward regression with basis pursuit and D-optimality

An efficient model identification algorithm for a large class of linear-in-the-parameters models is introduced that simultaneously optimises the model approximation ability, sparsity and robustness. The derived model parameters in each forward regression step are initially estimated via the orthogonal least squares (OLS), followed by being tuned with a new gradient-descent learning algorithm based on the basis pursuit that minimises the l(1) norm of the parameter estimate vector. The model subset selection cost function includes a D-optimality design criterion that maximises the determinant of the design matrix of the subset to ensure model robustness and to enable the model selection procedure to automatically terminate at a sparse model. The proposed approach is based on the forward OLS algorithm using the modified Gram-Schmidt procedure. Both the parameter tuning procedure, based on basis pursuit, and the model selection criterion, based on the D-optimality that is effective in ensuring model robustness, are integrated with the forward regression. As a consequence the inherent computational efficiency associated with the conventional forward OLS approach is maintained in the proposed algorithm. Examples demonstrate the effectiveness of the new approach.

An ontological modelling of user requirements for personalised information provision

The knowledge economy offers opportunity to a broad and diverse community of information systems users to efficiently gain information and know-how for improving qualifications and enhancing productivity in the work place. Such demand will continue and users will frequently require optimised and personalised information content. The advancement of information technology and the wide dissemination of information endorse individual users when constructing new knowledge from their experience in the real-world context. However, a design of personalised information provision is challenging because users’ requirements and information provision specifications are complex in their representation. The existing methods are not able to effectively support this analysis process. This paper presents a mechanism which can holistically facilitate customisation of information provision based on individual users’ goals, level of knowledge and cognitive styles preferences. An ontology model with embedded norms represents the domain knowledge of information provision in a specific context where users’ needs can be articulated and represented in a user profile. These formal requirements can then be transformed onto information provision specifications which are used to discover suitable information content from repositories and pedagogically organise the selected content to meet the users’ needs. The method is provided with adaptability which enables an appropriate response to changes in users’ requirements during the process of acquiring knowledge and skills.

iTrench: a study of user reactions to the use of information technology in field archaeology

This article describes work undertaken by the VERA project to investigate how archaeologists work with information technology (IT) on excavation sites. We used a diary study to research the usual patterns of behaviour of archaeologists digging the Silchester Roman town site during the summer of 2007. Although recording had previously been undertaken using pen and paper, during the 2007 season a part of the dig was dedicated to trials of IT and archaeologists used digital pens and paper and Nokia N800 handheld PDAs to record their work. The goal of the trial was to see whether it was possible to record data from the dig whilst still on site, rather than waiting until after the excavation to enter it into the Integrated Archaeological Database (IADB) and to determine whether the archaeologists found the new technology helpful. The digital pens were a success, however, the N800s were not successful given the extreme conditions on site. Our findings confirmed that it was important that technology should fit in well with the work being undertaken rather than being used for its own sake, and should respect established work flows. We also found that the quality of data being entered was a recurrent concern as was the reliability of the infrastructure and equipment.

A model of intelligent building energy management for the indoor environment

People's interaction with the indoor environment plays a significant role in energy consumption in buildings. Mismatching and delaying occupants' feedback on the indoor environment to the building energy management system is the major barrier to the efficient energy management of buildings. There is an increasing trend towards the application of digital technology to support control systems in order to achieve energy efficiency in buildings. This article introduces a holistic, integrated, building energy management model called `smart sensor, optimum decision and intelligent control' (SMODIC). The model takes into account occupants' responses to the indoor environments in the control system. The model of optimal decision-making based on multiple criteria of indoor environments has been integrated into the whole system. The SMODIC model combines information technology and people centric concepts to achieve energy savings in buildings.

Dynamic integrated system optimization and parameter estimation for discrete time optimal control of nonlinear systems

An algorithm for solving nonlinear discrete time optimal control problems with model-reality differences is presented. The technique uses Dynamic Integrated System Optimization and Parameter Estimation (DISOPE), which achieves the correct optimal solution in spite of deficiencies in the mathematical model employed in the optimization procedure. A version of the algorithm with a linear-quadratic model-based problem, implemented in the C+ + programming language, is developed and applied to illustrative simulation examples. An analysis of the optimality and convergence properties of the algorithm is also presented.

Model-based groupware solution for distributed real-time collaborative 4D planning via teamwork

Construction planning plays a fundamental role in construction project management that requires team working among planners from a diverse range of disciplines and in geographically dispersed working situations. Model-based four-dimensional (4D) computer-aided design (CAD) groupware, though considered a possible approach to supporting collaborative planning, is still short of effective collaborative mechanisms for teamwork due to methodological, technological and social challenges. Targeting this problem, this paper proposes a model-based groupware solution to enable a group of multidisciplinary planners to perform real-time collaborative 4D planning across the Internet. In the light of the interactive definition method, and its computer-supported collaborative work (CSCW) design analysis, the paper discusses the realization of interactive collaborative mechanisms from software architecture, application mode, and data exchange protocol. These mechanisms have been integrated into a groupware solution, which was validated by a planning team in a truly geographically dispersed condition. Analysis of the validation results revealed that the proposed solution is feasible for real-time collaborative 4D planning to gain a robust construction plan through collaborative teamwork. The realization of this solution triggers further considerations about its enhancement for wider groupware applications.

Memo to marketers: quantitative evidence for change: how user-generated content really affects brands

Developed in response to the new challenges of the social Web, this study investigates how involvement with brand-related user-generated content (UGC) affects consumers’ perceptions of brands. The authors develop a model that provides new insights into the links between drivers of UGC creation, involvement, and consumer-based brand equity. Expert opinions were sought on a hypothesized model, which further was tested through data from an online survey of 202 consumers. The results provide guidance for managerial initiatives involving UGC campaigns for brand building. The findings indicate that consumer perceptions of co-creation, community, and self-concept have a positive impact on UGC involvement that, in turn, positively affects consumer based brand equity. These empirical results have significant implications for avoiding problems and building deeper relationships between consumers and brands in the age of social media.

Defining user perception of distributed multimedia quality

This article presents the results of a study that explored the human side of the multimedia experience. We propose a model that assesses quality variation from three distinct levels: the network, the media and the content levels; and from two views: the technical and the user perspective. By facilitating parameter variation at each of the quality levels and from each of the perspectives, we were able to examine their impact on user quality perception. Results show that a significant reduction in frame rate does not proportionally reduce the user's understanding of the presentation independent of technical parameters, that multimedia content type significantly impacts user information assimilation, user level of enjoyment, and user perception of quality, and that the device display type impacts user information assimilation and user perception of quality. Finally, to ensure the transfer of information, low-level abstraction (network-level) parameters, such as delay and jitter, should be adapted; to maintain the user's level of enjoyment, high-level abstraction quality parameters (content-level), such as the appropriate use of display screens, should be adapted.

Distributed multimedia quality: the user perspective

Distributed multimedia supports a symbiotic infotainment duality, i.e. the ability to transfer information to the user, yet also provide the user with a level of satisfaction. As multimedia is ultimately produced for the education and / or enjoyment of viewers, the user’s-perspective concerning the presentation quality is surely of equal importance as objective Quality of Service (QoS) technical parameters, to defining distributed multimedia quality. In order to extensively measure the user-perspective of multimedia video quality, we introduce an extended model of distributed multimedia quality that segregates quality into three discrete levels: the network-level, the media-level and content-level, using two distinct quality perspectives: the user-perspective and the technical-perspective. Since experimental questionnaires do not provide continuous monitoring of user attention, eye tracking was used in our study in order to provide a better understanding of the role that the human element plays in the reception, analysis and synthesis of multimedia data. Results showed that video content adaptation, results in disparity in user video eye-paths when: i) no single / obvious point of focus exists; or ii) when the point of attention changes dramatically. Accordingly, appropriate technical- and user-perspective parameter adaptation is implemented, for all quality abstractions of our model, i.e. network-level (via simulated delay and jitter), media-level (via a technical- and user-perspective manipulated region-of-interest attentive display) and content-level (via display-type and video clip-type). Our work has shown that user perception of distributed multimedia quality cannot be achieved by means of purely technical-perspective QoS parameter adaptation.

Model studies of the interannual variability of the northern-hemisphere stratospheric winter circulation: the role of the quasi-biennial oscillation

A series of experiments are described that examine the sensitivity of the northern-hemisphere winter evolution to the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The prime tool for the experiments is a stratosphere-mesosphere model. The model is integrated over many years with the modelled equatorial winds relaxed towards observed values in order to simulate a realistic QBO. In experiment A the equatorial winds are relaxed towards Singapore radiosonde observations in the height region 16-32 km. In contrast to previous modelling studies, the Holton-Tan relationship (warm/cold winters associated with easterly/westerly QBO winds in the lower stratosphere) is absent. However, in a second experiment (run B) in which the equatorial winds are relaxed towards rocketsonde data over the extended height range 16-58 km, a realistic Holton-Tan relationship is reproduced. A series of further studies are described that explore in more detail the sensitivity to various equatorial height regions and to the bottom-boundary forcing. The experiments suggest that the evolution of the northern-hemisphere winter circulation is sensitive to equatorial winds throughout the whole depth of the stratosphere and not just to the lower-stratospheric wind direction as previously assumed.

Understanding lake and catchment history as a tool for integrated lake management

Sustainable lake management for nutrient-enriched lakes must be underpinned by an understanding of both the functioning of the lake, and the origins of changes in nutrient loading from the catchment. To date, limnologists have tended to focus on studying the impact of nutrient enrichment on the lake biota, and the dynamics of nutrient cycling between the water column, biota and sediments within the lake. Relatively less attention has been paid to understanding the specific origins of nutrient loading from the catchment and nutrient transport pathways linking the lake to its catchment. As such, when devising catchment management strategies to reduce nutrient loading on enriched lakes, assumptions have been made regarding the relative significance of non-point versus point sources in the catchment. These are not always supported by research conducted on catchment nutrient dynamics in other fields of freshwater science. Studies on nutrient enrichment in lakes need to take account of the history of catchment use and management specific to each lake in order to devise targeted and sustainable management strategies to reduce nutrient loading to enriched lakes. Here a modelling approach which allows quantification of the relative contribution of nutrients from each specific point and non-point catchment source over the course of catchment history is presented. The approach has been applied to three contrasting catchments in the U.K. for the period 1931 to present. These are the catchment of Slapton Ley in south Devon, the River Esk in Cumbria and the Deben Estuary in Suffolk. Each catchment showed marked variations in the nature and intensity of land use and management. The model output quantifies the relative importance of point source versus non-point livestock and land use sources in each of the catchments, and demonstrates the necessity for an understanding of site-specific catchment history in devising suitable management strategies for the reduction of nutrient loading on enriched lakes.