Modelling coronary heart disease mortality in Northern Ireland between 1987 and 2007: broader lessons for prevention

To quantify how much of the coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality decline in Northern Ireland between 1987 and 2007 could be attributed to medical and surgical treatments and how much to changes in population cardiovascular risk factors.

Differential Associations of Job Control Components With Mortality: A Cohort Study, 1986-2005

Inconsistent evidence of the hypothesized favorable effects of high job control on health may have resulted from a failure to treat job control as a multifactor concept. The authors studied whether the 2 components of job control, decision authority and skill discretion, were differentially associated with cause-specific mortality in 13,510 Finnish forest company employees with no history of severe illness. Surveys on work characteristics were carried out in 1986 and 1996, and the respondents were followed up until the end of 2005 by use of the Statistics Finland National Death Registry. During a mean follow-up of 15.5 years, 981 participants died. In the analyses adjusted for confounders, employees with high and intermediate levels of skill discretion had a lower all-cause mortality risk than those with low skill discretion, with hazard ratios of 0.84 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.69, 1.02) and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.69, 0.96), respectively. In contrast, high decision authority was associated with elevated risks of all-cause, cardiovascular, and alcohol-related mortality, with hazard ratios of 1.28 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.54), 1.49 (95% CI: 1.11, 2.02), and 2.03 (95% CI: 1.03, 4.00), respectively. The results suggest that job control is not an unequivocal concept in relation to mortality; decision authority and skill discretion show different and to some extent opposite associations.

Workplace social capital and all-cause mortality:a prospective cohort study of 28,043 public-sector employees in Finland

We examined the association between workplace social capital and all-cause mortality in a large occupational cohort from Finland.

All-cause mortality and periodontitis in 60-70-year-old men: A prospective cohort study

Objective To investigate the association between periodontitis and mortality from all causes in a prospective study in a homogenous group of 60- to 70-year-old West European men. Methodology A representative sample of 1400 dentate men, (mean age 63.8, SD 3.0 years), drawn from the population of Northern Ireland, had a comprehensive periodontal examination between 2001 and 2003. Men were divided into thirds on the basis of their mean periodontal attachment loss (PAL). The primary endpoint, death from any cause, was analysed using Kaplan-Meier survival plots and Cox's proportional hazards model. Results In total, 152 (10.9%) of the men died during a mean follow-up of 8.9 (SD 0.7) years; 37 (7.9%) men in the third with the lowest PAL (<1.8 mm) died compared with 73 (15.7%) in the third with the highest PAL (>2.6 mm). The unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) for death in the men with the highest level of PAL compared with those with the lowest PAL was 2.11 (95% CI 1.42-3.14), p < 0.0001. After adjustment for confounding variables (age, smoking, hypertension, BMI, diabetes, cholesterol, education, marital status and previous history of a cardiovascular event) the HR was 1.57 (1.04-2.36), p = 0.03. Conclusion The European men in this prospective cohort study with the most severe loss of periodontal attachment were at an increased risk of death compared with those with the lowest loss of periodontal attachment.

A Dynamic Factor Approach to Mortality Modelling

Longevity risk has become one of the major risks facing the insurance and pensions markets globally. The trade in longevity risk is underpinned by accurate forecasting of mortality rates. Using techniques from macroeconomic forecasting, we propose a dynamic factor model of mortality that fits and forecasts mortality rates parsimoniously.We compare the forecasting quality of this model and of existing models and find that the dynamic factor model generally provides superior forecasts when applied to international mortality data. We also show that existing multifactorial models have superior fit but their forecasting performance worsens as more factors are added. The dynamic factor approach used here can potentially be further improved upon by applying an appropriate stopping rule for the number of static and dynamic factors. 

Elevated soluble cellular adhesion molecules are associated with increased mortality in a prospective cohort of renal transplant recipients

Increased plasma levels of cellular adhesion molecules (CAMs) have been shown to be predictors of all cause mortality in individuals with chronic renal failure 12 and patients with end-stage renal disease receiving haemodialysis 3. In renal transplant recipients the predictive value of CAMs has not been well characterised. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between CAMs and all-cause mortality during prospective follow-up of a renal transplant cohort.

Decreased serum retinol is associated with increased mortality in renal transplant recipients

Vitamin A plays a central role in epithelial integrity and immune function. Given the risk of infection after transplantation, adequate vitamin A concentrations may be important in patients with a transplant. We assessed whether there was an association between retinol concentration and all-cause mortality in renal transplant recipients.

Cause-specific mortality adjudication in the UPLIFT® COPD trial:findings and recommendations

Mortality is an important endpoint in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) trials, although accurately determining cause of death is difficult. In the Understanding the Potential Long-term Impacts on Function with Tiotropium (UPLIFT®) trial, a mortality adjudication committee (MAC) provided systematic, independent and blinded assessment of cause-specific mortality of all 981 reported deaths. Here we describe this process of mortality adjudication and methodological revisions introduced to help standardise the adjudication of two areas recognised to pose particular difficulty; firstly, the classification of fatal COPD exacerbations that occur in the setting of pneumonia and secondly, the categorisation of sudden death. In addition MAC determined cause of death was compared with that reported by site investigators (SIs). MAC-assigned causes of death were: respiratory, 35%; cancer, 25%; cardiovascular, 11%; sudden cardiac death, 4.4%; sudden death, 3.4%; other, 8.8%; unknown, 12.4%. Cancer/cardiac deaths were more common in Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stage II, respiratory deaths in stages III and IV. Agreement between MAC and SI regarding cause of death was complete (50.2%), incomplete (18.5%) or none (31.3%). The SI classified deaths as cardiac three-fold more frequently than MAC (incidence rate [IR]/100 patient-years 0.797 vs. 0.257), although IR ratios for cardiac deaths for tiotropium vs. control were similar between SI and MAC. Discrepancies between MAC- and SI-adjudicated causes of death are common, especially increased reporting of cardiac deaths by the SI. Future multicentre COPD trials should plan appropriate infrastructure before study initiation to ensure collection and interpretation of fatal events data.

High Percentage Inorganic Arsenic Content of Mining Impacted and Nonimpacted Chinese Rice

Two approaches were undertaken to characterize the arsenic (As) content of Chinese rice. First, a national market basket survey (n = 240) was conducted in provincial capitals, sourcing grain from China's premier rice production areas. Second, to reflect rural diets, paddy rice (n = 195) directly from farmers fields were collected from three regions in Hunan, a key rice producing province located in southern China. Two of the sites were within mining and smeltery districts, and the third was devoid of large-scale metal processing industries. Arsenic levels were determined in all the samples while a subset (n = 33) were characterized for As species, using a new simple and rapid extraction method suitable for use with Hamilton PRP-X100 anion exchange columns and HPLC-ICP-MS. The vast majority (85%) of the market rice grains possessed total As levels <150 ng g(-1). The rice collected from mine-impacted regions, however, were found to be highly enriched in As, reaching concentrations of up to 624 ng g(-1). Inorganic As (As(i)) was the predominant species detected in all of the speciated grain, with As(i) levels in some samples exceeding 300 ng g(-1). The As(i) concentration in polished and unpolished Chinese rice was successfully predicted from total As levels. The mean baseline concentrations for As(i) in Chinese market rice based on this survey were estimated to be 96 ng g(-1) while levels in mine-impacted areas were higher with ca. 50% of the rice in one region predicted to fail the national standard.

Changes in lymphocyte subsets, interleukin 2, and soluble interleukin 2 receptor in old and very old age

In this study, the changes in some of the cellular components of the immune system and the activity of the cytokine interleukin 2, important for immune activation and lymphocyte proliferation, were measured in a large cross-sectional study of all age groups including octogenarian and nonagenarian subjects. In 206 apparently well community-living subjects, the absolute lymphocyte count and T and B cell numbers fell a little in old and very old subjects. Within the T cell compartment, helper/inducer CD4+ T cells, together with their subsets identified as 'naive' (CD4+/CD45RA+) and 'memory' (CD4+/CD45RO+) cells, also showed a decline with increased age. The suppressor/cytotoxic CD8+ subset showed no age-related change. The levels of the cytokine interleukin 2 were very low in octogenarian and nonagenarian subjects, while the soluble interleukin 2 receptor levels increased with increasing age. The interleukin 2 levels were associated with number and percentage of the 'memory' (CD4+/CD45RO+) subset of T cells which mediates the host response to previously met antigens. Since the interleukin 2 values were very low in the oldest groups and were associated with a reduced 'memory' (CD4+/CD45RO+) compartment, this suggests a possible mechanism of why the very elderly subject is more susceptible to morbidity and mortality from infectious or other agents.

Human mesenchymal stem cells reduce mortality and bacteremia in gram-negative sepsis in mice in part by enhancing the phagocytic activity of blood monocytes

The potential therapeutic value of cell-based therapy with mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) has been reported in mouse models of polymicrobial peritoneal sepsis. However, the mechanisms responsible for the beneficial effects of MSC have not been well defined. Therefore, we tested the therapeutic effect of intravenous bone marrow-derived human MSC in peritoneal sepsis induced by gram-negative bacteria. At 48 h, survival was significantly increased in mice treated with intravenous MSC compared with control mice treated with intravenous fibroblasts (3T3) or intravenous PBS. There were no significant differences in the levels of TNF-a, macrophage inflammatory protein 2, or IL-10 in the plasma. However, there was a marked reduction in the number of bacterial colony-forming units of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in the blood of MSC-treated mice compared with the 3T3 and PBS control groups. In addition, phagocytic activity was increased in blood monocytes isolated from mice treated with MSC compared with the 3T3 and PBS groups. Furthermore, levels of C5a anaphylotoxin were elevated in the blood of mice treated with MSC, a finding that was associated with upregulation of the phagocytosis receptor CD11b on monocytes. The phagocytic activity of neutrophils was not different among the groups. There was also an increase in alternately activated monocytes/macrophages (CD163- and CD206-positive) in the spleen of the MSC-treated mice compared with the two controls. Thus intravenous MSC increased survival from gram-negative peritoneal sepsis, in part by a monocyte-dependent increase in bacterial phagocytosis.

Pneumonia and lower respiratory infections in nursing home residents:Predictors of hospitalization and mortality

OBJECTIVES: To compare predictors of hospitalization and death in nursing home residents with pneumonia and other lower respiratory infections (LRIs). DESIGN: A nested cohort study. SETTING: Nine nursing homes in southern Ontario. PARTICIPANTS: Three hundred fifty-three nursing home residents with LRIs (enrolled in the control arm of a clinical trial). MEASUREMENTS: Comorbidities, vaccination status, age, health-related quality of life, functional status, and vital statistics were evaluated as potential predictors of hospitalization and mortality at 30 days. RESULTS: Moderate to high disease severity score on a practical severity scale was a strong independent predictor of hospitalization (odds ratio (OR)=7.12, P

Mortality in Barrett's oesophagus:Results from a population based study

Background: Patients with Barrett's oesophagus have an increased risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma but this cancer only accounts for a small proportion of deaths in these patients. Other causes of death are reportedly raised in this group. We examined cause specific mortality among individuals in a population based Barrett's oesophagus register. Methods: We constructed a register of all patients diagnosed with columnar mucosa (including specialised intestinal metaplasia) of the oesophagus within Northern Ireland between 1993 and 1999. Deaths occurring within this cohort until 31 December 2000 were identified and mortality rates were compared with the general population. Results: Overall mortality was not raised in Barrett's patients. During 7413 person years of follow up in 2373 patients there were 253 deaths (standardised mortality ratio (SMR) 96 (95% confidence interval (CI) 84-107)). Mortality from oesophageal cancer was raised in patients with specialised intestinal metaplasia (SMR 774 (95% CI 317-1231 )) but only 4.7% of patients died from this cancer. Mortality from stroke (SMR 65 (95% CI 37-93)) was significantly lower than the general population while mortality from non-cancerous digestive system diseases was significantly higher (SMR 211 (95% CI 111-311)). Mortality rates from all other causes were similar to those of the general population. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that the overall mortality rate in patients with Barrett's oesophagus is closely similar to that of the general population. Oesophageal cancer mortality was raised but is an uncommon cause of death in these patients who also appear to have a reduced risk of death from stroke.

The relationship between informal caregiving and mortality: an analysis using the ONS Longitudinal Study of England and Wales.

BACKGROUND:

Many studies have suggested that caregiving has a detrimental impact on health. However, these conclusions are challenged by research which finds evidence of a comparative survivorship advantage, as well as work which controls for group differences in the demand for care.

METHODS:

We use a large record linkage study of England and Wales to investigate the mortality risks of carers identified in the 2001 Census. The analysis focuses on individuals aged 35-74 living with others in private households and a distinction is made between those providing 1-19 and 20 or more hours of care per week. Logit models identify differences in carers' health at baseline and postcensal survival is analysed using Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS:

12.2% of study members reported providing 1-19 h of care and 5.4% reported providing 20 or more hours. While carers were significantly more likely to report poorer health at baseline, survival analyses suggested that they were at a significantly lower risk of dying. This comparative advantage also held when the analyses were restricted to individuals living with at least one person with poor health.

CONCLUSIONS:

The comparative mortality advantage revealed in this analysis challenges common characterisations of carers' health and draws attention to important differences in the way carers are defined in existing analyses. The survival results are consistent with work using similar data for Northern Ireland. However, the study also affords more uniform conclusions about carers' baseline health and this provides grounds for questioning existing hypotheses about the reasons for this advantage.