Risk adjustment in aging societies

Background In Switzerland, age is the predominant driver of solidarity transfers in risk adjustment (RA). Concerns have been voiced regarding growing imbalances in cost sharing between young and old insured due to demographic changes (larger fraction of elderly >65 years and rise in average age). Particularly young adults aged 19–25 with limited incomes have to shoulder increasing solidarity burdens. Between 1996 and 2011, monthly intergenerational solidarity payments for young adults have doubled from CHF 87 to CHF 182, which corresponds to the highest absolute transfer increase of all age groups. Results By constructing models for age-specific RA growth and for calculating the lifetime sum of RA transfers we investigated the causes and consequences of demographic changes on RA payments. The models suggest that the main driver for RA increases in the past was below average health care expenditure (HCE) growth in young adults, which was only half as high (average 2% per year) compared with older adults (average 4% per year). Shifts in age group distributions were only accountable for 2% of the CHF 95 rise in RA payments. Despite rising risk adjustment debts for young insured the balance of lifetime transfers remains positive as long as HCE growth rates are greater than the discount rate used in this model (3%). Moreover, the life-cycle model predicts that the lifetime rate of return on RA payments may even be further increased by demographic changes. Nevertheless, continued growth of RA contributions may overwhelm vulnerable age groups such as young adults. We therefore propose methods to limit the burden of social health insurance for specific age groups (e.g. young adults in Switzerland) by capping solidarity payments. Conclusions Taken together, our mathematical modelling framework helps to gain a better understanding of how demographic changes interact with risk adjustment and how redistribution of funds between age groups can be controlled without inducing further selection incentives. Those methods can help to construct more equitable systems of health financing in light of population aging.

Event-relating to potential dementia. Semantic processing in the course of healthy and pathological aging

While most healthy elderly are able to manage their everyday activities, studies showed that there are both stable and declining abilities during healthy aging. For example, there is evidence that semantic memory processes which involve controlled retrieval mechanism decrease, whereas the automatic functioning of the semantic network remains intact. In contrast, patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD) suffer from episodic and semantic memory impairments aggravating their daily functioning. In AD, severe episodic as well as semantic memory deficits are observable. While the hallmark symptom of episodic memory decline in AD is well investigated, the underlying mechanisms of semantic memory deterioration remain unclear. By disentangling the semantic memory impairments in AD, the present thesis aimed to improve early diagnosis and to find a biomarker for dementia. To this end, a study on healthy aging and a study with dementia patients were conducted investigating automatic and controlled semantic word retrieval. Besides the inclusion of AD patients, a group of participants diagnosed with semantic dementia (SD) – showing isolated semantic memory loss – was assessed. Automatic and controlled semantic word retrieval was measured with standard neuropsychological tests and by means of event-related potentials (ERP) recorded during the performance of a semantic priming (SP) paradigm. Special focus was directed to the N400 or N400-LPC (late positive component) complex, an ERP that is sensitive to the semantic word retrieval. In both studies, data driven topographical analyses were applied. Furthermore, in the patient study, the combination of the individual baseline cerebral blood flow (CBF) with the N400 topography of each participant was employed in order to relate altered functional electrophysiology to the pathophysiology of dementia. Results of the aging study revealed that the automatic semantic word retrieval remains stable during healthy aging, the N400-LPC complex showed a comparable topography in contrast to the young participants. Both patient groups showed automatic SP to some extent, but strikingly the ERP topographies were altered compared to healthy controls. Most importantly, the N400 was identified as a putative marker for dementia. In particular, the degree of the topographical N400 similarity was demonstrated to separate healthy elderly from demented patients. Furthermore, the marker was significantly related to baseline CBF reduction in brain areas relevant for semantic word retrieval. Summing up, the first major finding of the present thesis was that all groups showed semantic priming, but that the N400 topography differed significantly between healthy and demented elderly. The second major contribution was the identification of the N400 similarity as a putative marker for dementia. To conclude, the present thesis added evidence of preserved automatic processing during healthy aging. Moreover, a possible marker which might contribute to an improved diagnosis and lead consequently to a more effective treatment of dementia was presented and has to be further developed.

Modeling the formation and aging of secondary organic aerosols during CalNex 2010

Four different literature parameterizations for the formation and evolution of urban secondary organic aerosol (SOA) frequently used in 3-D models are evaluated using a 0-D box model representing the Los Angeles metropolitan region during the California Research at the Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change (CalNex) 2010 campaign. We constrain the model predictions with measurements from several platforms and compare predictions with particle- and gas-phase observations from the CalNex Pasadena ground site. That site provides a unique opportunity to study aerosol formation close to anthropogenic emission sources with limited recirculation. The model SOA that formed only from the oxidation of VOCs (V-SOA) is insufficient to explain the observed SOA concentrations, even when using SOA parameterizations with multi-generation oxidation that produce much higher yields than have been observed in chamber experiments, or when increasing yields to their upper limit estimates accounting for recently reported losses of vapors to chamber walls. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) model (version 5.0.1) provides excellent predictions of secondary inorganic particle species but underestimates the observed SOA mass by a factor of 25 when an older VOC-only parameterization is used, which is consistent with many previous model–measurement comparisons for pre-2007 anthropogenic SOA modules in urban areas. Including SOA from primary semi-volatile and intermediate-volatility organic compounds (P-S/IVOCs) following the parameterizations of Robinson et al. (2007), Grieshop et al. (2009), or Pye and Seinfeld (2010) improves model–measurement agreement for mass concentration. The results from the three parameterizations show large differences (e.g., a factor of 3 in SOA mass) and are not well constrained, underscoring the current uncertainties in this area. Our results strongly suggest that other precursors besides VOCs, such as P-S/IVOCs, are needed to explain the observed SOA concentrations in Pasadena. All the recent parameterizations overpredict urban SOA formation at long photochemical ages (3 days) compared to observations from multiple sites, which can lead to problems in regional and especially global modeling. However, reducing IVOC emissions by one-half in the model to better match recent IVOC measurements improves SOA predictions at these long photochemical ages. Among the explicitly modeled VOCs, the precursor compounds that contribute the greatest SOA mass are methylbenzenes. Measured polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (naphthalenes) contribute 0.7% of the modeled SOA mass. The amounts of SOA mass from diesel vehicles, gasoline vehicles, and cooking emissions are estimated to be 16–27, 35–61, and 19–35 %, respectively, depending on the parameterization used, which is consistent with the observed fossil fraction of urban SOA, 71(+-3) %. The relative contribution of each source is uncertain by almost a factor of 2 depending on the parameterization used. In-basin biogenic VOCs are predicted to contribute only a few percent to SOA. A regional SOA background of approximately 2.1 μgm-3 is also present due to the long-distance transport of highly aged OA, likely with a substantial contribution from regional biogenic SOA. The percentage of SOA from diesel vehicle emissions is the same, within the estimated uncertainty, as reported in previous work that analyzed the weekly cycles in OA concentrations (Bahreini et al., 2012; Hayes et al., 2013). However, the modeling work presented here suggests a strong anthropogenic source of modern carbon in SOA, due to cooking emissions, which was not accounted for in those previous studies and which is higher on weekends. Lastly, this work adapts a simple two-parameter model to predict SOA concentration and O/C from urban emissions. This model successfully predicts SOA concentration, and the optimal parameter combination is very similar to that found for Mexico City. This approach provides a computationally inexpensive method for predicting urban SOA in global and climate models. We estimate pollution SOA to account for 26 Tg yr-1 of SOA globally, or 17% of global SOA, one third of which is likely to be non-fossil.

Corporate aging and investment decisions

Paper I: Corporate aging and internal resource allocation Abstract Various observers argue that established firms are at a disadvantage in pursuing new growth opportunities. In this paper, we provide systematic evidence that established firms allocate fewer resources to high-growth lines of business. However, we find no evidence of inefficient resource allocation in established firms. Redirecting resources from high-growth to low-growth lines of business does not result in lower profitability. Also, resource allocation towards new growth opportunities does not increase when managers of established firms are exposed to takeover and product market threats. Rather, it seems that conservative resource allocation strategies are driven by pressures to meet investors’ expectations. Our empirical evidence, thus, favors the hypothesis that established firms wisely choose to allocate fewer resources to new growth opportunities as external pressures force them to focus on efficiency rather than novelty (Holmström 1989). Paper II: Corporate aging and asset sales Abstract This paper asks whether divestitures are motivated by strategic considerations about the scope of the firm’s activities. Limited managerial capacity implies that exploiting core competences becomes comparatively more attractive than exploring new growth opportunities as firms mature. Divestitures help stablished firms free management time and increase the focus on core competences. The testable implication of this attention hypothesis is that established firms are the main sellers of assets, that their divestiture activity increases when managerial capacity is scarcer, that they sell non-core activities, and that they return the divestiture proceeds to the providers of capital instead of reinvesting them in the firm. We find strong empirical support for these predictions. Paper III: Corporate aging and lobbying expenditures Abstract Creative destruction forces constantly challenge established firms, especially in competitive markets. This paper asks whether corporate lobbying is a competitive weapon of established firms to counteract the decline in rents over time. We find a statistically and economically significant positive relation between firm age and lobbying expenditures. Moreover, the documented age-effect is weaker when firms have unique products or operate in concentrated product markets. To address endogeneity, we use industry distress as an exogenous nonlegislative shock to future rents and show that established firms are relatively more likely to lobby when in distress. Finally, we provide empirical evidence that corporate lobbying efforts by established firms forestall the creative destruction process. In sum, our findings suggest that corporate lobbying is a competitive weapon of established firms to retain profitability in competitive environments.

Associations of obesity and body fat distribution with incident atrial fibrillation in the biracial health aging and body composition cohort of older adults

UNLABELLED Obesity is a well-recognized risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF), yet adiposity measures other than body mass index (BMI) have had limited assessment in relation to AF risk. We examined the associations of adiposity measures with AF in a biracial cohort of older adults. Given established racial differences in obesity and AF, we assessed for differences by black and white race in relating adiposity and AF. METHODS We analyzed data from 2,717 participants of the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study. Adiposity measures were BMI, abdominal circumference, subcutaneous and visceral fat area, and total and percent fat mass. We determined the associations between the adiposity measures and 10-year incidence of AF using Cox proportional hazards models and assessed for their racial differences in these estimates. RESULTS In multivariable-adjusted models, 1-SD increases in BMI, abdominal circumference, and total fat mass were associated with a 13% to 16% increased AF risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.14, 95% CI 1.02-1.28; HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.04-1.28; and HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.002-1.27). Subcutaneous and visceral fat areas were not significantly associated with incident AF. We did not identify racial differences in the associations between the adiposity measures and AF. CONCLUSION Body mass index, abdominal circumference, and total fat mass are associated with risk of AF for 10years among white and black older adults. Obesity is one of a limited number of modifiable risk factors for AF; future studies are essential to evaluate how obesity reduction can modify the incidence of AF.

EMAS position statement: Testosterone replacement therapy in the aging male‏.

INTRODUCTION Late-onset hypogonadism (LOH) represents a common clinical entity in aging males, characterized by the presence of symptoms (most usually of a sexual nature, such as decreased libido, decreased spontaneous erections and erectile dysfunction) and signs, in combination with low serum testosterone concentrations. Whether testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) should be offered to those individuals is still under extensive debate. AIMS The aim of this position statement is to provide and critically appraise evidence on TRT in the aging male, focusing on pathophysiology and characteristics of LOH, indications for TRT, available therapeutic agents, monitoring and treatment-associated risks. MATERIALS AND METHODS Literature review and consensus of expert opinion. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS Diagnosis and treatment of LOH is justified, if a combination of symptoms of testosterone deficiency and low testosterone is present. Patients receiving TRT could profit with regard to obesity, metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes mellitus, sexual function and osteoporosis and should undergo scheduled testing for adverse events regularly. Potential adverse effects of TRT on cardiovascular disease, prostate cancer and sleep apnea are as yet unclear and remain to be investigated in large-scale prospective studies. Management of aging men with LOH should include individual evaluation of co-morbidities and careful risk versus benefit assessment.

β2-microglobulin is a systemic pro-aging factor that impairs cognitive function and neurogenesis

Aging drives cognitive and regenerative impairments in the adult brain, increasing susceptibility to neurodegenerative disorders in healthy individuals. Experiments using heterochronic parabiosis, in which the circulatory systems of young and old animals are joined, indicate that circulating pro-aging factors in old blood drive aging phenotypes in the brain. Here we identify β2-microglobulin (B2M), a component of major histocompatibility complex class 1 (MHC I) molecules, as a circulating factor that negatively regulates cognitive and regenerative function in the adult hippocampus in an age-dependent manner. B2M is elevated in the blood of aging humans and mice, and it is increased within the hippocampus of aged mice and young heterochronic parabionts. Exogenous B2M injected systemically, or locally in the hippocampus, impairs hippocampal-dependent cognitive function and neurogenesis in young mice. The negative effects of B2M and heterochronic parabiosis are, in part, mitigated in the hippocampus of young transporter associated with antigen processing 1 (Tap1)-deficient mice with reduced cell surface expression of MHC I. The absence of endogenous B2M expression abrogates age-related cognitive decline and enhances neurogenesis in aged mice. Our data indicate that systemic B2M accumulation in aging blood promotes age-related cognitive dysfunction and impairs neurogenesis, in part via MHC I, suggesting that B2M may be targeted therapeutically in old age.

Zuni elders: Ethnography of American Indian aging

Problem/purpose. The specific aim of this focused ethnography was to provide insight into the experience of aging of the American Indian (AI) elder as demonstrated by one tribe, the Zuni of New Mexico. Discovering how Zuni elders construct the experience of aging and the associated behaviors allowed the researcher to deconstruct aging and then re-present it in a cogent description for this population. Such a description is lacking in the literature and will be useful in planning for culturally relevant eldercare services. ^ Methods. Ethnographic field techniques were used to sample from elders, pueblo members-at-large, activities, events and places. Over 1800 hrs were spent in the field spanning 14 months and five site visits, with the longest at almost 4 weeks. Developing codes for transcribed interviews, field notes, supplementary documents, photographs, videos, and artifacts was carried out during analysis. Categories and ultimately a cognitive map and model were developed which represented aging in Zuni Pueblo in 2000. ^ Findings. Zuni elders are aging in two worlds. Their primary world has been described as a sevenfold universe, a complicated structure with seven planes wherein the middle plane refers to themselves, a synthesis of all the other planes. The increasing influence of the white world has formed a ‘new middle’ out of which everyday aspects of aging are viewed. ^ Implications for nursing/gerontology. Nurses and others in gerontology must recognize that vast differences in worldviews are present between themselves and AI elders regarding health practices, spirituality, eating patterns, family roles, medicine, religion and countless other aspects of life. Their centuries old beliefs and practices drive these differences coupled with a collision with the white world. Making a paradigm shift using an appropriate lens with which to view these differences can only increase our understanding and efficacy in delivering culturally relevant care. ^

Alterations in the Cellular Composition of the Mouse Bladder Following Ovariectomy, Partial Bladder Outlet Obstruction, and Aging

Detrusor underactivity (DU) increases susceptibility to urinary retention and accordingly further complicates the management of urinary incontinence. Bladder muscle stretch, a lack of estrogen, and aging are 3 notable DU risk factors. The aim of this research is to better characterize the changes in cellular composition of the bladder that result from these 3 risk factors to gain a better understanding of DU pathogenesis and pathobiology. This research focuses on the effects of a lack of estrogen while also providing an outline for determining the effects of bladder muscle stretch and aging on the cellular composition of the bladder.

The construction of aging and health in older African American women

Persistence of racial and ethnic health disparities and governmental policies based on outdated ideas of aging call for inclusive approaches to the study of elder African Americans. The lived experiences of aging among urban, poor African American women, who comprise a vulnerable population, are not well known, as most studies focus on mainstream populations. Gerontological studies have tended to employ methods that collapse contextual information for ease of analysis, thus failing to capture nuanced information critically relevant to health of marginalized groups. Few researchers have been successful highlighting the importance of local knowledge, resilience, and resources for health by using participatory methods with older Black women. This study utilizes participatory principles to gather discursive data from nine older African American women, engaged in three generational cohorts: those born around World War II, women born after the great depression, and those born before the great depression. Videotaped and transcribed conversations of cohorts were analyzed in search of contextual factors that influence their experience of aging and health. As women responded to general themes that provoked their talk about their lives, they helped answer the study's questions: How do older African American women make sense of their aging experience? What are some of the important social and cultural influences that shape the construction of aging and health by these women? Are generational discourse groups an effective tool for exploring changes in the experiences of aging? A key finding demonstrated rich heterogeneity of experiences with strong generational influences on the construction of aging and health. The participants' moral orders comprised of traditional values of family, reinforced by personal experiences and the church, have guided their lives through oppression and stress but appear to be failing younger women who have greater exposure to new environmental pressures. Limited time and the size of the study were weaknesses although the women's interest in the study and their participation were gratifying. The participants served to highlight the importance of recognizing generational and other contextual factors in formation of ideas of aging and likelihood of additional challenges to the experience of old age among older, poorer, African Americans. ^

Role of telomere dysfunction, DNA damage response and p53 mutations in tumorigenesis and aging

The ends of eukaryotic chromosomes are protected by specialized ribonucleoprotein structures termed telomeres. Telomeres protect chromosomes from end-to-end fusions, inappropriate repair and degradation. Disruption of this complex activates an ATM/ATR DNA damage response (DDR) pathway. One component of the complex is the Protection Of Telomeres 1 (POT1) protein, an evolutionarily conserved protein which binds single-stranded 3' overhang and is required for both chromosomal end protection and telomere length regulation. The mouse contains two POT1 orthologs, Pot1a and Pot1b. Here we show that both proteins colocalize with telomeres through interaction with the adapter protein TPP1. In addition, compared to Pot1a, the OB-folds of Pot1b possess less sequence specificity for telomeres. Disruption of POT1 proteins result in telomere dysfunction and activation of an ATR-dependent DDR at telomeres, suggesting that this response is normally suppressed by POT1 binding to the single-stranded G-overhang. ^ Telomeres are maintained by telomerase, and its absence in somatic cells results in telomere progressive loss that triggers the activation of p53. Telomere dysfunction initiates genomic instability and induces both p53-dependent replicative senescence and apoptosis to suppress tumorigenesis. In the absence of functional p53, this genomic instability promotes cancer. It was previously not known which aspect of the p53 dependent DNA damage response is important to suppress tumorigenesis initiated by dysfunctional telomeres. The p53R172P knock-in mouse, which is unable to induce apoptosis but retains intact cell cycle arrest/cellular senescence pathways, allowed us to examine whether p53-dependent apoptosis is a major tumor suppression pathway initiated in the setting of telomere dysfunction. Spontaneous tumorigenesis remains potently suppressed in late generation telomerase null mice possessing the p53P/P mutation. These results suggest that suppression of spontaneous tumorigenesis initiated by dysfunctional telomeres requires activation of a p53-dependent senescence pathway. In addition, we used another knock-in mouse model with a p53R172H (p53H) point mutation to test the hypothesis that telomere dysfunction promotes chromosomal instability and accelerates the onset of tumorigenesis in vivo in the setting of this most common gain-of-function mutation in the human Li Fraumeni cancer syndrome. We unexpectedly observed that telomerase null mice possessing dysfunctional telomeres in the setting of the p53H/+ mutation develop significantly fewer tumors, die prematurely and exhibit higher level of cellular senescence, apoptosis and elevated genomic instability compared to telomerase intact p53H/+ and telomerase null p53+/+ mice. These contrasting results thus link cancer and aging to the functional status of telomeres and the integrity of the p53 pathway. ^

High-risk drug use and sexual behaviors among out-of-treatment drug users: An aging and life course perspective

High-risk injection drug use and the sexual behaviors that accompany it have large social and financial costs. Tailored treatments have been shown to successfully reduce high-risk behaviors. However, little is known about how age and age at first drug use are related to high-risk injection or sex behaviors. The current study draws on life course theory and hypothesizes that age will have a strong relationship with high-risk behaviors of out-of-treatment drug users. Data from the NIDA Cooperative Agreement was used to analyze the relationship between (1) age, and (2) age at first drug use with seven high-risk injection and sexual behavior variables. Negative binomial regression models revealed that high-risk sexual behavior decreases between 15.8 and 20.9% with each decade of age, while high-risk injection behavior increases between 32 and 67% with each decade of age after the addition of demographic controls. Both high-risk injection and high-risk sex behaviors are significantly reduced with a delayed age at first drug use. Previous research promotes interventions to reduce the high-risk sexual behaviors of older drug users. The current study suggests a refocusing of public health efforts on the high-risk injection habits of older drug users.^

Social support, health status and health services utilization among the noninstitutionalized elderly: An analysis of the Supplement on Aging to the 1984 national health interview survey

The association between Social Support, Health Status, and Health Services Utilization of the elderly, was explored based on the analysis of data from the Supplement on Aging to the National Health Interview Survey, 1984 (N = 11,497) using a modified framework of Aday and Andersen's Expanded Behavioral Model. The results suggested that Social Support as operationalized in this study was an independent determinant of the use of health services. The quantity of social activities and the use of community services were the two most consistent determinants across different types of health services use.^ The effects of social support on the use of health services were broken down into three components to facilitate explanations of the mechanisms through which social support operated. The Predisposing and Enabling component of Social Support had independent, although not uniform, effects on the use of health services. Only slight substitute effects of social support were detected. These included the substitution of the use of senior centers for longer stay in the hospital and the substitution of help with IADL problems for the use of formal home care services.^ The effect of financial support on the use of health services was found to be different for middle and low income populations. This differential effect was also found for the presence of intimate networks, the frequencies of interaction with children and the perceived availability of support among urban/rural, male/female and white/non-white subgroups.^ The study also suggested that the selection of appropriate Health Status measures should be based on the type of Health Services Utilization in which a researcher is interested. The level of physical function limitation and role activity limitation were the two most consistent predictors of the volume of physician visits, number of hospital days, and average length of stay in the hospital during the past year.^ Some alternative hypotheses were also raised and evaluated, when possible. The impacts of the complex sample design, the reliability and validity of the measures and other limitations of this analysis were also discussed. Finally, a revised framework was proposed and discussed based on the analysis. Some policy implications and suggestions for future study were also presented. ^