Deriving meteorological variables across Africa for the study and control of vector-borne disease:a comparison of remote sensing and spatial interpolation of climate

This paper presents the results of an investigation into the utility of remote sensing (RS) using meteorological satellites sensors and spatial interpolation (SI) of data from meteorological stations, for the prediction of spatial variation in monthly climate across continental Africa in 1990. Information from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) polar-orbiting meteorological satellites was used to estimate land surface temperature (LST) and atmospheric moisture. Cold cloud duration (CCD) data derived from the High Resolution Radiometer (HRR) onboard the European Meteorological Satellite programme's (EUMETSAT) Meteosat satellite series were also used as a RS proxy measurement of rainfall. Temperature, atmospheric moisture and rainfall surfaces were independently derived from SI of measurements from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) member stations of Africa. These meteorological station data were then used to test the accuracy of each methodology, so that the appropriateness of the two techniques for epidemiological research could be compared. SI was a more accurate predictor of temperature, whereas RS provided a better surrogate for rainfall; both were equally accurate at predicting atmospheric moisture. The implications of these results for mapping short and long-term climate change and hence their potential for the study anti control of disease vectors are considered. Taking into account logistic and analytical problems, there were no clear conclusions regarding the optimality of either technique, but there was considerable potential for synergy.

Discrete Conditional Phase-type Model Utilising a Multiclass Support Vector Machine for the Prediction of Retinopathy of Prematurity

Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a rare disease in which retinal blood vessels of premature infants fail to develop normally, and is one of the major causes of childhood blindness throughout the world. The Discrete Conditional Phase-type (DC-Ph) model consists of two components, the conditional component measuring the inter-relationships between covariates and the survival component which models the survival distribution using a Coxian phase-type distribution. This paper expands the DC-Ph models by introducing a support vector machine (SVM), in the role of the conditional component. The SVM is capable of classifying multiple outcomes and is used to identify the infant's risk of developing ROP. Class imbalance makes predicting rare events difficult. A new class decomposition technique, which deals with the problem of multiclass imbalance, is introduced. Based on the SVM classification, the length of stay in the neonatal ward is modelled using a 5, 8 or 9 phase Coxian distribution.

Control energy consumption and system performance in vector control of voltage source converters

Power electronics plays an important role in the control and conversion of modern electric power systems. In particular, to integrate various renewable energies using DC transmissions and to provide more flexible power control in AC systems, significant efforts have been made in the modulation and control of power electronics devices. Pulse width modulation (PWM) is a well developed technology in the conversion between AC and DC power sources, especially for the purpose of harmonics reduction and energy optimization. As a fundamental decoupled control method, vector control with PI controllers has been widely used in power systems. However, significant power loss occurs during the operation of these devices, and the loss is often dissipated in the form of heat, leading to significant maintenance effort. Though much work has been done to improve the power electronics design, little has focused so far on the investigation of the controller design to reduce the controller energy consumption (leading to power loss in power electronics) while maintaining acceptable system performance. This paper aims to bridge the gap and investigates their correlations. It is shown a more thoughtful controller design can achieve better balance between energy consumption in power electronics control and system performance, which potentially leads to significant energy saving for integration of renewable power sources.

Identification of Peptide Inhibitors of Enveloped Viruses Using Support Vector Machine

The peptides derived from envelope proteins have been shown to inhibit the protein-protein interactions in the virus membrane fusion process and thus have a great potential to be developed into effective antiviral therapies. There are three types of envelope proteins each exhibiting distinct structure folds. Although the exact fusion mechanism remains elusive, it was suggested that the three classes of viral fusion proteins share a similar mechanism of membrane fusion. The common mechanism of action makes it possible to correlate the properties of self-derived peptide inhibitors with their activities. Here we developed a support vector machine model using sequence-based statistical scores of self-derived peptide inhibitors as input features to correlate with their activities. The model displayed 92% prediction accuracy with the Matthew’s correlation coefficient of 0.84, obviously superior to those using physicochemical properties and amino acid decomposition as input. The predictive support vector machine model for self- derived peptides of envelope proteins would be useful in development of antiviral peptide inhibitors targeting the virus fusion process.

A Fast Algorithm for Sparse Support Vector Machines for Mobile Computing Applications

This research presents a fast algorithm for projected support vector machines (PSVM) by selecting a basis vector set (BVS) for the kernel-induced feature space, the training points are projected onto the subspace spanned by the selected BVS. A standard linear support vector machine (SVM) is then produced in the subspace with the projected training points. As the dimension of the subspace is determined by the size of the selected basis vector set, the size of the produced SVM expansion can be specified. A two-stage algorithm is derived which selects and refines the basis vector set achieving a locally optimal model. The model expansion coefficients and bias are updated recursively for increase and decrease in the basis set and support vector set. The condition for a point to be classed as outside the current basis vector and selected as a new basis vector is derived and embedded in the recursive procedure. This guarantees the linear independence of the produced basis set. The proposed algorithm is tested and compared with an existing sparse primal SVM (SpSVM) and a standard SVM (LibSVM) on seven public benchmark classification problems. Our new algorithm is designed for use in the application area of human activity recognition using smart devices and embedded sensors where their sometimes limited memory and processing resources must be exploited to the full and the more robust and accurate the classification the more satisfied the user. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed algorithm. This work builds upon a previously published algorithm specifically created for activity recognition within mobile applications for the EU Haptimap project [1]. The algorithms detailed in this paper are more memory and resource efficient making them suitable for use with bigger data sets and more easily trained SVMs.

Spatio-Temporal Rich Model For Motion Vector Steganalysis

We propose a spatio-temporal rich model of motion vector planes as a part of a full steganalytic system against motion vector based steganography. Superior detection accuracy of the rich model over the previous methods has been lately demonstrated for digital images in both spatial and DCT domain. It has not been heretofore used for detection of motion vector steganography. We also introduced a transformation so as to extend the feature set with temporal residuals. We carried out the tests along with most recent motion vector steganalysis and steganography methods. Test results show that the proposed model delivers an outstanding performance compared to the previous methods.

Modelling the fresh properties of self-compacting concrete using support vector machine approach

The main objective of the study presented in this paper was to investigate the feasibility using support vector machines (SVM) for the prediction of the fresh properties of self-compacting concrete. The radial basis function (RBF) and polynomial kernels were used to predict these properties as a function of the content of mix components. The fresh properties were assessed with the slump flow, T50, T60, V-funnel time, Orimet time, and blocking ratio (L-box). The retention of these tests was also measured at 30 and 60 min after adding the first water. The water dosage varied from 188 to 208 L/m3, the dosage of superplasticiser (SP) from 3.8 to 5.8 kg/m3, and the volume of coarse aggregates from 220 to 360 L/m3. In total, twenty mixes were used to measure the fresh state properties with different mixture compositions. RBF kernel was more accurate compared to polynomial kernel based support vector machines with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 26.9 (correlation coefficient of R2 = 0.974) for slump flow prediction, a RMSE of 0.55 (R2 = 0.910) for T50 (s) prediction, a RMSE of 1.71 (R2 = 0.812) for T60 (s) prediction, a RMSE of 0.1517 (R2 = 0.990) for V-funnel time prediction, a RMSE of 3.99 (R2 = 0.976) for Orimet time prediction, and a RMSE of 0.042 (R2 = 0.988) for L-box ratio prediction, respectively. A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effects of the dosage of cement and limestone powder, the water content, the volumes of coarse aggregate and sand, the dosage of SP and the testing time on the predicted test responses. The analysis indicates that the proposed SVM RBF model can gain a high precision, which provides an alternative method for predicting the fresh properties of SCC.

Spatio-temporal Rich Model Based Video Steganalysis on Cross Sections of Motion Vector Planes

A rich model based motion vector steganalysis benefiting from both temporal and spatial correlations of motion vectors is proposed in this work. The proposed steganalysis method has a substantially superior detection accuracy than the previous methods, even the targeted ones. The improvement in detection accuracy lies in several novel approaches introduced in this work. Firstly, it is shown that there is a strong correlation, not only spatially but also temporally, among neighbouring motion vectors for longer distances. Therefore, temporal motion vector dependency along side the spatial dependency is utilized for rigorous motion vector steganalysis. Secondly, unlike the filters previously used, which were heuristically designed against a specific motion vector steganography, a diverse set of many filters which can capture aberrations introduced by various motion vector steganography methods is used. The variety and also the number of the filter kernels are substantially more than that of used in previous ones. Besides that, filters up to fifth order are employed whereas the previous methods use at most second order filters. As a result of these, the proposed system captures various decorrelations in a wide spatio-temporal range and provides a better cover model. The proposed method is tested against the most prominent motion vector steganalysis and steganography methods. To the best knowledge of the authors, the experiments section has the most comprehensive tests in motion vector steganalysis field including five stego and seven steganalysis methods. Test results show that the proposed method yields around 20% detection accuracy increase in low payloads and 5% in higher payloads.

Computerized key to the genus Bursaphelenchus Fuchs, analysis of species clusters based on morphology, using information of insect vectors and associated plants, with a revision of the genus.

The genus Bursaphelenchus includes B. xylophilus (Steiner et Buhrer, 1934) Nickle, 1981, which is of world economic and quarantine importance. Distinction among several species of the pinewood nematodes species complex (PWNSC) is often difficult. Besides standard morphology, morphometrics and molecular biology, new tools are welcome to better understand this group. The computerized (or e-) key of this genus, presented in this communication, includes 74 species (complete list of valid species of the world fauna) and 35 characters, that were used by the taxonomic experts of this group, in the original descriptions. Morphology of sex organs (male spicules and female vulval region) was digitized and classified to distinguish alternative types. Several qualitative characters with overlapping character states (expressions) were transformed into the morphometric indices with the discontinuous ranges (characters of ratios of the spicule dimensions). Characters and their states (expressions) were illustrated in detail and supplied by brief user-friendly comments. E-key was created in the BIKEY identification system (Dianov & Lobanov, 1996-2004). The system has built-algorithm ranging characters depending on their diagnostic values at each step of identification. Matrix of species and the character states (structural part of the e-key database) may be easily transformed using statistical packages into the dendrograms of general phenetic similarities (UPGMA, standard distance: mean character difference). It may be useful in the detailed analysis of taxonomy and evolution of the genus and in its splitting to the species groups based on morphology. The verification of the dendrogram using the information on the species links with insect vectors and their associated plants, provided an opportunity to recognize the five clusters (xylophilus, hunti, eremus sensu stricto, tusciae and piniperdae sensu stricto), which seem to be the natural species groups. The hypothesis about the origin and the first stages of the genus evolution is proposed. A general review of the genus Bursaphelenchus is presented.

The Pine Wood Nematode: a personal view

The first report of the disease (“pine wilt disease”) associated with the pinewood nematode, goes back to 1905, when Yano reported an unusual decline of pines from Nagasaki. For a long time thereafter, the cause of he disease was sought, but without success. Because of the large number of insect species that were usually seen around and on infected trees, it had always been assumed that the causal agent would prove to be one of these. However, in 1971, Kiyohara and Tokushike found a nematode of the genus Bursaphelenchus in infected trees. The nematode found was multiplied on fungal culture, inoculated into healthy trees and then re-isolated from the resulting wilted trees. The subsequent published reports were impressive: this Bursaphelenchus species could kill fully-grown trees within a few months in the warmer areas of Japan, and could destroy complete forests of susceptible pine species within a few years. Pinus densiflora, P. thunbergii und P. luchuensis were particularly affected. In 1972, Mamiya and Kiyohara described the new species of nematode extracted from the wood of diseased pines; it was a named Bursaphelenchus lignicolus. Since 1975, the species has spread to the north of Japan, with the exception of the most northerly prefectures. In 1977, the loss of wood in the west of the country reached 80%. Probably as a result of unusually high summer temperatures and reduced rainfall in the years 1978 and 1979, the losses were more than 2 million m3 per year. From the beginning, B. lignicolus was always considered by Japanese scientists to be an exotic pest. But where did it come from? That this nematode could also cause damage in the USA became clear in 1979 when B. lignicolus was isolated in great numbers from wood of a 39 year-old pine tree (Pinus nigra) in Missouri which had suddenly died after the colour of its needles changed to a reddish-brown colour (Dropkin und Foudin, 2 1979). In 1981, B. lignicolus was synonymised by Nickle et al. with B. xylophilus which had been found for the first time in the USA as far back as 1929, and reported by Steiner and Buhrer in 1934. It had originally been named Aphelenchoides xylophilus, the wood-inhabiting Aphelenchoides but was recognised by Nickle, in 1970,to belong in the genus Bursaphelenchus. Its common name in the USA was the "pine wood nematode" (PWN. After its detection in Missouri, it became known that B. xylophilus was widespread throughout the USA and Canada. It occurred there on native species of conifers where, as a rule, it did not show the symptoms of pine wilt disease unless susceptible species were stressed eg., by high temperature. This fact was an illuminating piece of evidence that North America could be the homeland of PWN. Dwinell (1993) later reported the presence of B. xylophilus in Mexico. The main vector of the PWN in Japan was shown to be the long-horned beetle Monochamus alternatus, belonging to the family Cerambycidae. This beetle lays its eggs in dead or dying trees where the developing larvae then feed in the cambium layer. It was already known in Japan in the 19th century but in the 1930s, it was said to be present in most areas of Japan, but was generally uncommon. However, with the spread of the pine wilt disease, and the resulting increase of weakened trees that could act as breeding sites for beetles, the populations of Monochamus spp. increased significantly In North America, other Monochamus species transmit PWN, and the main vector is M. carolinensis. In Japan, there are also other, less efficient vectors in the genus Monochamus. Possibly, all Monochamus species that breed in conifers can transmit the PWN. The occasional transmission by less efficient species of Monochamus or by some of the many other beetle genera in the bark or wood is of little significance. In Europe, M. galloprovincialis and M. sutor transmits the closely related species B. mucronatus. Some speculate that these two insect species are “standing by” and waiting for the arrival of B. xylophilus. In 1982, the nematode was detected and China. It was first found in dead pines near the Zhongshan Monument of Nanjing (CHENG et. al. 1983); 265 trees were then killed by pine wilt disease. Despite great efforts at eradication in China, the nematode spread further and pine wilt disease has been 3 reported from parts of the provinces of Jiangsu, Anhui, Guangdong, Shandong, Zhejiang and Hubei (YANG, 2003). In 1986, the spread of the PWN to Taiwan was discovered and in 1989, the nematode was reported to be present in the Republic of Korea where it had first been detected in Pinus thunbergii and P. densiflora. It was though to have been introduced with packing material from Japan. PWN was advancing. In 1984, B. xylophilus was found in wood chips imported into Finland from the USA and Canada, and this was the impetus to establish phytosanitary measures to prevent any possible spread into Europe. Finland prohibited the import of coniferous wood chips from these sources, and the other Nordic countries soon followed suit. EPPO (the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization) made a recommendation to its member countries in 1986 to refuse wood imports from infested countries. With its Directive of 1989 (77/93 EEC), the European Community (later called the European Union or EU) recognised the potential danger of B. xylophilus for European forests and imposed restrictions on imports into the Europe. PWN was placed on the quarantine list of the EU and also of other European countries. Later, in 1991, a dispensation was allowed by the Commission of the EU(92/13 EEC) for coniferous wood from North America provided that certain specified requirements were fulfilled that would prevent introduction.

Morphobiometric and molecular characterization of Bursaphelenchus Fuchs, 1937 (Nematoda: Aphelenchoididae) species associated with Pinus pinaster Ainton in Portugal

Abstract - The genus Bursaphelenchus comprises almost 100 species mainly from the northern hemisphere, with conifers as the most important hosts. Among the various nematode species, the pine wood nematode (PWN), Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, is the casual agent of pine wilt disease (PWD), and the most important forest pest for pines worldwide, classified as an A1 quarantine organism within the European Union. In 1999 this nematode was detected for the first time in Portugal and Europa associated with maritime pine, Pinus pinaster. Following detection, a national program denominated "Programa Nacional de Luta contra o Nemátodo da Madeira do Pinheiro" (PROLUNP) was created to, among other objectives, determine the distribution of the PWN and its associated vector(s) and host(s), and therefore intensive surveys covering the entire country were conducted with thousands of wood samples and suspected insects being analyzed. This thesis presents the listing, distribution, frequency and the insects associated with Bursaphelenchus species found associated with maritime pine in Portugal, identifying and characterizing the various species by morphological, biometrical and molecular biology (ITS-RFLP and rDNA sequencing analysis) techniques. To achieve the objectives, a total of 4813 maritime pine wood samples and 3294 insects from 22 species and six families were individually analyzed. A total of nine Bursaphelenchus species were found, namely: B. antoniae, B. hellenicus, B. leoni, B. mucronatus, B. pinasteri, B. sexdentati, B. teratospicularis, B. tusciae and B. xylophilus, all of them (with the exception of B. xylophilus) being new records for Portugal. Some of the species appear to have a widespread distribution, such as B. leoni, B. teratospicularis and B. tusciae while others were very rarely found and apparently have a localized distribution range within the country, namely B. antoniae and B. mucronatus. The majority of the species is characteristic of the Mediterranean region and can also be found in countries such as Spain, Italy and Greece, reflecting the affinity of our fauna with those locations. The association of B. hellenicus and B. tusciae with maritime pine is here reported for the first time. Six of the Bursaphelenchus species were also found associated with insects, mainly from the family Scolytidae (Coleoptera). Some of these interactions were described for the first time, namely: B. hellenicus with both Ips sexdentatus and Hylurgus ligniperda, B. sexdentati with both H. ligniperda and Orthotomicus erosus and B. tusciae with H. ligniperda. The exclusive association of B. xylophilus with the cerambycid Monochamus galloprovincialis was also confirmed. The nematode's dauer juveniles were usually found in low numbers in the insect vectors (ca 10-100 per insect), although for B. xylophilus a few thousand specimens per insect were sometimes found. The location of the dauer juveniles differed according to the species, although they were more common under the elytra and wings of the adult insects. A species new to science was detected and formally described as B. antoniae, associated with Hylobius sp. (Coleoptera; Curculionidae) beetles. Morphologically, this new species is very similar to B. hylobianum, although it's distinct ITS-RFLP molecular pattern (with only the enzyme Haelll producing comparable restriction bands) and the failure of hybridization supported the two species as distinct entities. Additional phylogenetic analysis of the 18S rDNA sequence further supported the taxonomical proximity of B. antoniae with B. hylobianum. Concerning the PWN, detailed studies on the development and morphology of B. xylophilus were conducted, and comparative measurements of field-collected and laboratory-maintained populations demonstrated that nematodes from the second group displayed larger size in all morphometric parameters, which could derive from more adequate conditions of nourishment and/or temperature. Taxonomical studies on the development stages of B. xylophilus confirmed the existence of four propagative juvenile stages (J1,J2,J3 and J4), an adult stage with both sexes and two dispersal stages (jIII e jIV), with the measurements of the gonad length allowing the separation of the propagative stages. It is hoped that the acquired knowledge will be useful on future surveys of nematodes of the Bursaphelenchus genus collected from either wood material or insect vectors, and facilitate the correct distinction and identification of the various species which are now known to occur. ### Resumo - 0 género Bursaphelenchus compreende quase 100 espécies, distribuídas sobretudo nos países do hemisfério norte do globo terrestre. Embora algumas espécies já tenham sido detectadas em plantas herbáceas, os hospedeiros vegetais mais comuns deste género são as coníferas, particularmente pinheiros. 0 nemátode da madeira do pinheiro (NMP), Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, é considerado a espécie mais importante deste género uma vez que é o agente causal da doença da murchidão dos pinheiros ("pine wilt disease"). Originário dos Estados Unidos, onde não causa grande impacte, o NMP foi introduzido em alguns países da Ásia (China, Japão, Coreia e Taiwan) e mais recentemente na Europa (Portugal). Nestas regiões é responsável pela destruição de milhares de hectares de coníferas, assumindo uma elevada importância económica. Em Portugal, depois da sua detecção em 1999, associado a Pinus pinaster, foi implementado um programa nacional "Programa Nacional de Luta contra o Nemátodo da Madeira do Pinheiro" (PROLUNP) que permitiu determinar a área afectada pela praga (a sul do rio Tejo, península de Setúbal) bem como definir e implementar estratégias de controlo e prevenção da disseminação do NMP a outras zonas de Portugal. Recentemente, em Junho de 2008, foi confirmada a presença de B. xylophilus em outras regiões de Portugal levando as autoridades oficiais a definir todo o território continental como zona afectada e de restrição. As prospecções intensivas realizadas nos últimos anos incluíram a recolha e análise de milhares de amostras de madeira de pinheiro bem como de insectos associados ao pinheiro bravo conduzindo à identificação de várias espécies de Bursaphelenchus. Assim, os estudos conduzidos neste trabalho tiveram como objectivos efectuar uma caracterização morfológica, biométrica e molecular das espécies associadas a P. pinaster em Portugal bem como a sua distribuição geográfica e abundância. Os estudos biométricos foram realizados com populações extraídas directamente do meio natural. Foi ainda realizada uma pesquisa que permitiu identificar os insectos a que estão associadas essas espécies, os seus possíveis vectores. Foram analisadas no total 4813 amostras de P. pinaster e 3294 insectos (22 espécies pertencentes a seis famílias diferentes). Foram identificadas um total de nove espécies: B. antoniae n. sp., B. hellenicus, B. leoni, B. mucronatus, B. pinasteri, B. sexdentati, B. teratospicularis, B. tusciae e B. xylophilus. Foram realizados estudos morfológicos e biométricos de todas as espécies com excepção de B. mucronatus; o reduzido número de exemplares encontrados em apenas uma amostra foram utilizados para efectuar o diagnóstico molecular desta espécie (ITS-RFLP). Apesar de ter havido, sempre que possível, a confirmação molecular, na maioria dos casos a caracterização morfológica e biométrica permitiu a correcta identificação das espécies. Contudo, foi imprescindível a análise molecular em algumas amostras, nomeadamente para a identificação de B. xylophilus e B. sexdentati; dada a grande semelhança entre B. xylophilus e B. mucronatus e tendo sido encontradas algumas populações de B. xylophilus que possuíam fêmeas com cauda mucronada, foi necessária a realização da confirmação molecular. Com excepção de B. xylophilus, todas as outras espécies foram reportadas pela primeira vez em Portugal. Juntamente com B. xylophilus, B. pinasteri foi a espécie encontrada nas amostras de madeira de pinheiro com maior frequência. Algumas destas espécies como B. leoni, B. teratospicularis e B. tusciae foram reportadas em diferentes localidades do norte, centro e sul de Portugal, apresentando uma vasta distribuição geográfica; este resultado está em consonância com a forte associação destas espécies a climas mediterrânicos tal como acontece em Espanha, França, Itália e Grécia. Em oposição, espécies como B. antoniae e B. mucronatus foram encontradas apenas numa ocasião na região centro (Leiria) e norte (Figueira da Foz) do país, respectivamente. Bursaphelenchus mucronatus é igualmente pouco frequente em Espanha onde ocorre sobretudo na região norte, na Galiza. Esta espécie preferirá climas mais frios, ocorrendo com uma maior frequência nas regiões de latitude norte; esta análise é corroborada pela presença constante em países como Alemanha, Finlândia, França, Noruega, Rússia e Suécia. A nível mundial são descritas neste trabalho pela primeira vez as associações das espécies B. hellenicus e B. tusciae ao hospedeiro vegetal P. pinaster.