Return and volatility linkages between the S&P 500 and emerging stock markets in Eastern Europe

The aim of this thesis is to research mean return spillovers as well as volatility spillovers from the S&P 500 stock index in the USA to selected stock markets in the emerging economies in Eastern Europe between 2002 and 2014. The sample period has been divided into smaller subsamples, which enables taking different market conditions as well as the unification of the World’s capital markets during the financial crisis into account. Bivariate VAR(1) models are used to analyze the mean return spillovers while the volatility linkages are analyzed through the use of bivariate BEKK-GARCH(1,1) models. The results show both constant volatility pooling within the S&P 500 as well as some statistically significant spillovers of both return and volatility from the S&P 500 to the Eastern European emerging stock markets. Moreover, some of the results indicate that the volatility spillovers have increased as time has passed, indicating unification of global stock markets.

Hot cognition and activation of the medial prefrontal cortex: Self-regulating in contexts involving motivational pressures

The medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) is involved in performance-monitoring and has been implicated in the generation of several electrocortical responses associated with self-regulation. The error-related negativity (ERN), the inhibitory Nogo N2 (N2), and the feedback-related negativity (FRN) are event-related potential (ERP) components which reflect mPFC activity associated with feedback to behavioural (ERN, N2) and environmental (FRN) consequences. Our main goal was to determine whether or not rnPFC activation varies as a function of motivational context (e.g., those involving performance-related incentives) or the use of internally versus externally generated feedback signals (i.e., errors). Additionally, we assessed medial prefrontal activity in relation to individual differences in personality and temperament. Participants completed a combination of tasks in which performance-related incentives were associated with task performance and feedback generated from internal versus external responses. MPFC activity was indexed using both ERP scalp voltage peaks and intracerebral current source density (CSD) of dorsal and ventral regions. Additionally, participants completed several questionnaires assessing personality and temperament styles. Given previous studies have shown that enhanced mPFC activity to loss (or negative) feedback, we expected that activity in the mPFC would generally be greater during the Loss condition relative to the Win condition for both the ERN and N2. Also, due to the evidence that the (vmPFC) is engaged in arousing contexts, we hypothesized that activity in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) would be greater than activity in the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC), especially in the Loss condition of the GoNogo task (ERN). Similarly, loss feedback in the BART (FRN) was expected to engage the vmPFC more than the dmPFC. Finally, we predicted that persons rating themselves as more willing to engage in approach-related behaviours or to exhibit rigid cognitive styles would show reduced activity of the mPFC. Overall, our results emphasize the role of affective evaluations of behavioural and environmental consequences when self-regulating. Although there were no effects of context on brain activity, our data indicate that, during the time of the ERN and N2 on the MW Go-Nogo task and the FRN on the BART, the vrnPFC was more active compared to the dmPFC. Moreover, regional recruitment in the mPFC was similar across internally (ERN) and externally (FRN) generated errors signals associated with loss feedback, as reflected by relatively greater activity in the vmPFC than the dmPFC. Our data also suggest that greater activity in the mPFC is associated with better inhibitory control, as reflected by both scalp and CSD measures. Additionally, deactivation of the subgenual anterior cingulate cortex (sgACC) and lower levels of self-reported positive affect were both related to increased voluntary risk-taking on the BART. Finally, persons reporting higher levels of approach-related behaviour or cognitive rigidity showed reduced activity of the mPFC. These results are in line with previous research emphasizing that affect/motivation is central to the processes reflected by mediofrontal negativities (MFNs), that the vmPFC is involved in regulating demands on motivational/affective systems, and that the underlying mechanisms driving these functions vary across both individuals and contexts.

Iron Mountain Route Railway schedule: the great through line St. Louis, Arkansas and Texas to the Hot Springs of Arkansas

Iron Mountain Route Railway schedule: the great through line St. Louis, Arkansas and Texas to the Hot Springs of Arkansas.

Receipt from G. Lloyd, dealer in hot air furnaces, stoves, ranges, gas fixtures and pumps

Receipt from G. Lloyd, dealer in hot air furnaces, stoves, ranges, gas fixtures and pumps, located on King Street, St. Catharines regarding payment received for burners, dampers and other gas fixtures, Jan. 1, 1875.

Uncovering Financial Markets Beliefs About Inflation Targets

This paper exploits the term structure of interest rates to develop testable economic restrictions on the joint process of long-term interest rates and inflation when the latter is subject to a targeting policy by the Central Bank. Two competing models that econometrically describe agents’ inferences about inflation targets are developed and shown to generate distinct predictions on the behavior of interest rates. In an empirical application to the Canadian inflation target zone, results indicate that agents perceive the band to be substantially narrower than officially announced and asymmetric around the stated mid-point. The latter result (i) suggests that the monetary authority attaches different weights to positive and negative deviations from the central target, and (ii) challenges on empirical grounds the assumption, frequently made in the literature, that the policy maker’s loss function is symmetric (usually a quadratic function) around a desired inflation value.

Jumps in the Volatility of Financial Markets.

Recent work suggests that the conditional variance of financial returns may exhibit sudden jumps. This paper extends a non-parametric procedure to detect discontinuities in otherwise continuous functions of a random variable developed by Delgado and Hidalgo (1996) to higher conditional moments, in particular the conditional variance. Simulation results show that the procedure provides reasonable estimates of the number and location of jumps. This procedure detects several jumps in the conditional variance of daily returns on the S&P 500 index.

In Search of Advice for Physicians in Entry-Level Medical Markets

We consider entry-level medical markets for physicians in the United Kingdom. These markets experienced failures which led to the adoption of centralized market mechanisms in the 1960's. However, different regions introduced different centralized mechanisms. We advise physicians who do not have detailed information about the rank-order lists submitted by the other participants. We demonstrate that in each of these markets in a low information environment it is not beneficial to reverse the true ranking of any two acceptable hospital positions. We further show that (i) in the Edinburgh 1967 market, ranking unacceptable matches as acceptable is not profitable for any participant and (ii) in any other British entry-level medical market, it is possible that only strategies which rank unacceptable positions as acceptable are optimal for a physician.

Matching Markets under (In)complete Information

We are the first to introduce incomplete information to centralized many-to-one matching markets such as those to entry-level labor markets or college admissions. This is important because in real life markets (i) any agent is uncertain about the other agents' true preferences and (ii) most entry-level matching is many-to-one (and not one-to-one). We show that for stable (matching) mechanisms there is a strong and surprising link between Nash equilibria under complete information and Bayesian Nash equilibria under incomplete information. That is,given a common belief, a strategy profile is a Bayesian Nash equilibrium under incomplete information in a stable mechanism if and only if, for any true profile in the support of the common belief, the submitted profile is a Nash equilibrium under complete information at the true profile in the direct preference revelation game induced by the stable mechanism. This result may help to explain the success of stable mechanisms in these markets.

Impact of Openness to Trade on Capital Formation in Developed and Emerging Markets: a Comparative Study.

Rapport de recherche

ITEM : An Integrated Transport Economy Model - Price Elasticities of Freight Transport Demand in Canada : Three Canadian Markets and Four Commodities.

Rapport de recherche

The role of financial markets in the stabilization and reconstruction of Lebanon.

Rapport de recherche

Top trading with fixed tie-breaking in markets with indivisible goods

We study markets with indivisible goods where monetary compensations are not possible. Each individual is endowed with an object and a preference relation over all objects. When preferences are strict, Gale's top trading cycle algorithm finds the unique core allocation. When preferences are not necessarily strict, we use an exogenous profile of tie-breakers to resolve any ties in individuals' preferences and apply Gale's top trading cycle algorithm for the resulting profile of strict preferences. We provide a foundation of these simple extensions of Gale's top trading cycle algorithm from strict preferences to weak preferences. We show that Gale's top trading cycle algorithm with fixed tie-breaking is characterized by individual rationality, strategy-proofness, weak efficiency, non-bossiness, and consistency. Our result supports the common practice in applications to break ties in weak preferences using some fixed exogenous criteria and then to use a 'good and simple' rule for the resulting strict preferences. This reinforces the market-based approach even in the presence of indifferences because always competitive allocations are chosen.