Mean reversion in the short horizon returns of UK portfolios

This paper will show that short horizon stock returns for UK portfolios are more predictable than suggested by sample autocorrelation co-efficients. Four capitalisation based portfolios are constructed for the period 1976–1991. It is shown that the first order autocorrelation coefficient of monthly returns can explain no more than 10% of the variation in monthly portfolio returns. Monthly autocorrelation coefficients assume that each weekly return of the previous month contains the same amount of information. However, this will not be the case if short horizon returns contain predictable components which dissipate rapidly. In this case, the return of the most recent week would say a lot more about the future monthly portfolio return than other weeks. This suggests that when predicting future monthly portfolio returns more weight should be given to the most recent weeks of the previous month, because, the most recent weekly returns provide the most information about the subsequent months' performance. We construct a model which exploits the mean reverting characteristics of monthly portfolio returns. Using this model we forecast future monthly portfolio returns. When compared to forecasts that utilise the autocorrelation statistic the model which exploits the mean reverting characteristics of monthlyportfolio returns can forecast future returns better than the autocorrelation statistic, both in and out of sample.

An investigation into the nature, determinants, and dynamics of service quality expectations

On the basis of a review of the substantive quality and service marketing literature current knowledge regarding service quality expectations was found either absent or deficient. The phenomenon is of increasing importance to both marketing researchers and management and was therefore judged worthy of scholarly consideration. Because the service quality literature was insufficiently rich when embarking on the thesis three basic research issues were considered namely the nature, determinants, and dynamics of service quality expectations. These issues were first conceptually and then qualitatively explored. This process generated research hypotheses mainly relating to a model which were subsequently tested through a series of empirical investigations using questionnaire data from field studies in a single context. The results were internally consistent and strongly supported the main research hypotheses. It was found that service quality expectations can be meaningfully described in terms of generic/service-specific, intangible/tangible, and process/outcome categories. Service-specific quality expectations were also shown to be determined by generic service quality expectations, demographic variables, personal values, psychological needs, general service sophistication, service-specific sophistication, purchase motives, and service-specific information when treating service class involvement as an exogenous variable. Subjects who had previously not directly experienced a particular service were additionally found to revise their expectations of quality when exposed to the service with change being driven by a sub-set of identified determinants.

Adolescents and the experience of parental divorce:including reference to the expectations of teacher trainees

The aims of this study were to investigate the impact of parental divorce on adolescents, and the expectations of teacher trainees with regard to children of divorce. The literature related to children of divorce is reviewed and the results of interviews with a sample of recently divorced custodial parents and their adolescent children, using a structured interview schedule, are described. The semantic differential technique was used to obtain ratings of a sample of teacher trainees' expectations of children of divorce as compared with their ratings of several other categories of children. The results of the interviews with parents and their adolescent children suggested that parental divorce does not necessarily interfere with adolescent development and that for some adolescents the reduction of conflict in the home might enhance normal development. They also suggest that adolescents would prefer to live in a one parent home rather than a two parent home which is fraught with conflict, and that it is preferable for parents who are unable to resolve such conflict in any other way to separate rather than allow it to persist. The ratings of children of divorce by teacher trainees suggest that they hold more negative expectations of such children than of other groups • such as adopted children. The contrast between this finding and the results of the interviews with adolescents and their parents lends some support to the existence of the divorce myth; that is, the cultural belief that divorce has the inherent power to make people unhappy. The implications for policy, practice and further research are discussed.

Growth expectations and financial performance of small businesses:evidence from Latvia

By applying regulatory focus theory, this paper investigates the impact of both initial confidence and of exactness of growth expectations on subsequent financial performance of the small firms. Drawing on the unique data set based on the repeated survey design, we make one of the first attempts to explore the complexity of this relationship empirically. Overall the findings suggest that controlling for other relevant factors, including actual growth, the entrepreneurs having higher growth expectations perform significantly better later on in terms of profitability. In addition, education has a strong modifying effect: the impact of high growth expectations on subsequent profit performance is stronger for entrepreneurs with lower level of education.

Growth expectations of business owners:impact of human capital, firm characteristics and environmental transition

This paper presents an empirical study based on a survey of 399 owners of small and medium size companies in Lithuania. Applying bivariate and ordered probit estimators, we investigate why some business owners expect their firms to expand, while others do not. Our main findings provide evidence that SME owner's generic and specific human capital matter. Those with higher education and 'learning by doing' attributes, either through previous job experience or additional entrepreneurial experience, expect their businesses to expand. The expectations of growth are positively related to exporting and non-monotonically to enterprise size. In addition, we analyse the link between the perceptions of constraints to business activities and growth expectations and find that the factors, which are perceived as main business barriers, are not necessary those which are associated with reduced growth expectations. In particular, perceptions of both corruption and of inadequate tax systems seem to affect growth expectations the most.

Attachment anxiety and friendship group identification under attachment threat:the moderating role of priming support network expectations

We examined the role of priming participants' own network expectations on their subsequent identification with their friendship group. We examined this prime alongside attachment anxiety and attachment threat, as predictors of friendship group identification. Previous research has suggested that attachment anxiety is associated with negative network expectations. In this study, we extended this work to show that when a network expectation prime was absent, higher attachment anxiety was associated with lower group identification under attachment threat, compared to a control condition. However, when expectations of support network were primed, attachment threat no longer affected group identification, so that only attachment anxiety predicted group identification. This suggests that priming participants who are high in attachment anxiety with their own network expectancies (which are negative), results in participants dis-identifying with their friendship group, regardless of whether or not they have experienced attachment threat. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Physicians' perceptions, attitudes and expectations regarding the role of hospital-based pharmacists in the West Bank, Palestine

Objective - To evaluate the perceptions, expectations and experiences of physicians with regard to hospital-based pharmacists in the West Bank, Palestine. Methods - A self-administered questionnaire was distributed to 250 physicians practising in four general hospitals in the West Bank, Palestine. The main sections of the questionnaire comprised a series of statements pertaining to physicians' perceptions, expectations and experiences with pharmacists. Key findings - One hundred and fifty seven questionnaires were completed and returned (response rate, 62.8%). The majority of respondents were most comfortable with pharmacists detecting and preventing prescription errors (76.4%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 69.5–81.2%) and patient education (57.9%; CI 51.2–63.4%) but they were not comfortable with pharmacists suggesting the use of prescription medications to patients (56.7%; CI 49.8–62.4%). Most physicians (62.4%; CI 56.8–69.1%) expected the pharmacist to educate their patients about the safe and appropriate use of their medication. However, approximately one-third (31.7%; CI 26.0–39.6%) did not expect pharmacists to be available for consultation during rounds. Physicians' experiences with pharmacists were less favourable; whereas 77% (CI 70.2–81.5%) of the physicians agreed that pharmacists were always a reliable source of information, only 11.5% (CI 6.2–16.4%) agreed that pharmacists appeared to be willing to take responsibility for solving any drug-related problems. Conclusion -The present study showed that hospital physicians are more likely to accept traditional pharmacy services than newer clinical services for hospital-based pharmacists in the West Bank, Palestine. Pharmacists should therefore interact more positively and more frequently with physicians. This will close the gap between the physicians' commonly held perceptions of what they expect pharmacists to do and what pharmacists can actually do, and gain support for an extended role of hospital-based pharmacists in future patient therapy management.

From icon to naturalised icon:a linguistic analysis of media representations of the BP Deepwater Horizon crisis

This research explores how news media reports construct representations of a business crisis through language. In an innovative approach to dealing with the vast pool of potentially relevant texts, media texts concerning the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill are gathered from three different time points: immediately after the explosion in 2010, one year later in 2011 and again in 2012. The three sets of 'BP texts' are investigated using discourse analysis and semi-quantitative methods within a semiotic framework that gives an account of language at the semiotic levels of sign, code, mythical meaning and ideology. The research finds in the texts three discourses of representation concerning the crisis that show a movement from the ostensibly representational to the symbolic and conventional: a discourse of 'objective factuality', a discourse of 'positioning' and a discourse of 'redeployment'. This progression can be shown to have useful parallels with Peirce's sign classes of Icon, Index and Symbol, with their implied movement from a clear motivation by the Object (in this case the disaster events), to an arbitrary, socially-agreed connection. However, the naturalisation of signs, whereby ideologies are encoded in ways of speaking and writing that present them as 'taken for granted' is at its most complete when it is least discernible. The findings suggest that media coverage is likely to move on from symbolic representation to a new kind of iconicity, through a fourth discourse of 'naturalisation'. Here the representation turns back towards ostensible factuality or iconicity, to become the 'naturalised icon'. This work adds to the study of media representation a heuristic for understanding how the meaning-making of a news story progresses. It offers a detailed account of what the stages of this progression 'look like' linguistically, and suggests scope for future research into both language characteristics of phases and different news-reported phenomena.

Share.TEC Portal: How the Metadata Repositories of Educational Resources Meet the Users’ Expectations

This is an extended version of an article presented at the Second International Conference on Software, Services and Semantic Technologies, Sofia, Bulgaria, 11–12 September 2010.

Characterizations of Exponential Distribution via Conditional Expectations of Record Values

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62G30, 62E10.

The boundaries of acceptance: Do expectations for the complainant's psychological injury affect legal decisions in a sexual harassment case

Research indicates that people engaged in legal decision-making use a host of biases and preconceptions to guide their decisions about whether the evidence presented to them is reasonable. However, few theories address how such expectations affect legal decision-makers. The present study attempted to determine if social judgment theory (SJT) can explain how and when legal decision-makers rely on expectations for the complainant's psychological injury in a hostile environment sexual harassment case. Two experiments provided undergraduate participants with a written summary of a hostile work environment allegation that first manipulated participants' expectations about reasonable psychological injuries (mild v. severe), and then presented them with actual severity levels of psychological injury (ranging from minimal to extreme). Experiment 1 (N = 295) hypothesized and found that participants who expected severe injuries perceived a greater range of psychological injuries to be reasonable than participants expecting mild injury. Experiment 2 ( N = 202) used similar methodology and investigated whether perceived reasonableness for the injury allegations affected legal decisions. Experiment 2 hypothesized that participants expecting severe psychological injury should render more pro-complainant decisions than participants expecting mild psychological injury. This result should be most pronounced when participants receive a moderate injury allegation, since this allegation was perceived as reasonable by participants expecting severe injury, but unreasonable by participants expecting mild injury. Consistent with SJT, participants who received a moderate injury but expected a severe injury found more liability than participants who received a moderate injury but expected a mild injury. Inconsistent with SJT, participants' expectations did not affect their compensatory damage decisions. In fact, more severe injury allegations increased damage awards regardless of participants' expectations. Although the results provide mixed support for applying SJT to legal decisions in sexual harassment cases, they emphasize the continuing role of oft-unstudied extra-legal factors (juror's expectations and psychological injury severity) on legal decisions.

Student Expositions as an Opportunity to Feel Proud: One Antidote to Expectations of Failure in Zone Schools

Expositions of student work at the end of the extended school year are one of many reform efforts in a specially formed School Improvement Zone in Miami Dade schools. This descriptive analysis offers examples of successful attempts to engender pride even in the face of formidable social and cultural obstacles.

Strategic Directions of Hotel Industry Expectations

A factor analysis is presented which indicates that among 20 potential strategic issues reated by hotl industry executives three fundamental strategic directions exist. The author summarizes an empiracle study that queried these individuals' beliefs regarding strategic issues they rated at most important.

EFFECTS OF A VISUAL HORIZON ON DROSOPHILA MELANOGASTER OBJECT-TRACKING RESPONSES

To navigate effectively in three-dimensional space, flying insects must approximate distances to nearby objects. Humans are able to use an array of cues to guide depth perception in the visual world. However, some of these cues are not available to insects that are constrained by their rigid eyes and relatively small body size. Flying fruit flies can use motion parallax to gauge the distance of nearby objects, but using this cue becomes a less effective strategy as objects become more remote. Humans are able to infer depth across far distances by comparing the angular distance of an object to the horizon. This study tested if flying fruit flies, like humans, use the relative position of the horizon as a depth cue. Fruit flies in tethered flight were stimulated with a virtual environment that displayed vertical bars of varying elevation relative to a horizon, and their tracking responses were recorded. This study showed that tracking responses of the flies were strongly increased by reducing the apparent elevation of the bar against the horizon, indicating that fruit flies may be able to assess the distance of far off objects in the natural world by comparing them against a visual horizon.