Improvement on the sales forecast accuracy for a fast growing company by the best combination of historical data usage and clients segmentation

Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.

Making decisions in the absence of clear facts: a historical perspective

Recently, a claim has been made that executive decisions makers, far from being fact collectors, are actually fact users and integrators. As such, the claim continues, executive decision makers need help in understanding how to interpret facts, as well as guidance in making decisions in the absence of clear facts. This report justifies this claim against the backdrop of the modern history of decision making, from 1956 to the present. The historical excursion serves to amplify and clarify the claim, as well as to develop a theoretical framework for making decisions in the absence of clear facts. Two essential issues are identified that impact upon decision making in the absence of clear facts, as well criteria for decision making effectiveness under such circumstances. Methodological requirements and practical objectives round off the theoretical framework. The historical analysis enables the identification of one particular established methodology as claiming to meet the methodological requirements of the theoretical framework. Since the methodology has yet to be tried on information-poor situations, a further project is proposed that will test its validity.

Developmental class coalitions: historical experiences and prospects

Este artigo discute o conceito de coalizões de classe como uma alternativa parcial à luta de classes na compreensão das sociedades capitalistas; define duas coalizões de classes básicas - a desenvolvimentista e a liberal; apresenta brevemente três coalizões de classe desenvolvimentistas paradigmáticas - a mercantilista, a bismarckiana, e a social-democrata (ou dos anos dourados do capitalismo); e usa esse arcabouço teórico para entender o capitalismo contemporâneo nos anos pós neoliberais - os anos que se seguem a crise financeira global de 2008

The BRICS: some historical experiences, growth challenges and opportunities

The acronym BRICS was a fad among the media and global investors. Now, the acronym sounds passé. However, the group of countries remains important, from both political and economic reasons. They have a large aggregate size, 28% of the global GDP and 42% of the world’s population, high growth potential due to the current significant misallocation of resources and relatively low stock of human capital, structural transformation is in progress and one of them, China, is taking steps to become a global power and a challenger to the US dominance. This paper provides a brief overview of the five economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. We focus on some aspects of their history, the Chinese initiatives in international finance and geopolitical strategic moves, their growth experience and structural transformation over the last 35 years, trade and investment integration into the global economy and among themselves, the growth challenges faced by their economies and the potential gains to the Brazilian economy from a stronger integration with the other BRICS. In association with its efforts to be a global power, China aims to become a major player in global finance and to achieve the status of global currency for the renminbi, which would be the first currency of an emerging economy to attain such position. Despite the similarities, the BRICS encompass very diverse economies. In the recent decades, China and India showed stellar growth rates. On the other hand, Brazil, Russia and South Africa have expanded just in line with global output growth with the Russian economy exhibiting high volatility. China is by far the largest economy, and South Africa the smallest, the only BRICS economy with a GDP lower than US$ 1 trillion. Russia abandoned communism almost 25 years ago, but reversed many of the privatizations of 90’s. China is still ruled by communism, but has a vibrant private sector and recently has officially declared market forces to play a dominant role in its economy. Brazil, Russia and South Africa are global natural resources powerhouses and commodity exporters while China and India are large commodity importers. Brazil is relatively closed to international trade of goods and services, in marked contrast to the other four economies. Brazil, India and South Africa are dependent on external capital flows whereas China and Russia are capital exporters. India and South Africa have younger populations and a large portion living below the poverty line. Despite its extraordinary growth experience that lifted many millions from poverty, China still has 28% of its population classified as poor. Russia and China have much older populations and one of their challenges is to deal with the effects of a declining labor force in the near future. India, China and South Africa face a long way to urbanization, while Brazil and Russia are already urbanized countries. China is an industrial economy but its primary sector still absorbs a large pool of workers. India is not, but the primary sector employs also a large share of the labor force. China’s aggregate demand structure is biased towards investment that has been driving its expansion. Brazil and South Africa have an aggregate demand structure similar to the developed economies, with private consumption accounting for approximately 70%. The same similarity applies to the supply side, as in both economies the share of services nears 70%. The development problem is a productivity problem, so microeconomic reforms are badly needed to foster long-term growth of the BRICS economies since they have lost steam due a variety of factors, but fundamentally due to slower total factor productivity growth. China and India are implementing ambitious reform programs, while Brazil is dealing with macroeconomic disequilibria. Russia and South Africa remain mute about structural reforms. There are some potential benefits to Brazil to be extracted from a greater economic integration with the BRICS, particularly in natural resources intensive industries and services. Necessary conditions to the materialization of those gains are the removal of the several sources of resource misallocation and strong investment in human capital.

Sobre a constituição do sujeito: uma análise comparativa entre a psicologia sócio-sociologia do conhecimento de berger e luckmann

This study investigated how the process of the constitution of the subject is interpreted in the formulations of the founders of socio-historical psychology (Lev S. Vigotski, Alexei N. Leontiev and Alexander R. Luria) and in the sociology of knowledge of Peter Berger and Thomas Luckmann. These two theoretical perspectives, despite having different philosophical formulations as ontological and epistemological intentions (socio-historical psychology, historical dialectical materialism; the sociology of Berger and Luckmann and phenomenology) arrive, however, at the same basic conclusion about the social nature of the subject. The objective of the study, therefore, was that of identifying the differences and convergences between the two perspectives and then, try to determine the possibility of a theoretical synthesis between them in relation to the constitution of the subject. At the same time, we intended to analyse the implications of this possible synthesis in order to comprehend the manner in which the ideology functions in human societies as thought by Louis Althusser and Alípio de Sousa Filho. We arrived at the conclusion that, despite being incompatible from the ontological and epistemological points of view, a synthesis is possible between socio-historical psychology and the sociology of knowledge of Berger and Luckmann in relation to the conception of society and the comprehension of the process of the constitution of the subject. Starting from the philosophical intentions of socio-historical psychology, it is possible to incorporate, enriching points such as: Berger s and Luckmann sconception of society and the interpretation of the process of constitution of the subject. This possible synthesis, when interpreted in light of the reflections of Althusser and Sousa Filho on the phenomenon of ideology in human societies, is constituted in a real unveiling of the concrete provisos by which the ideology acts in human societies in order to transform biological examples of the human species in specific social subjects

A concepção de paisagem de professores de geografia em escolas do município de Parnamirim (RN)

This work is an exploratory study based on the principles of qualitative research aiming at the conception of landscape by Geography teachers in the city of Parnamirim (RN), as well as the pedagogical implications originated from such conceptions on the formation of students. In order to start our investigative process, we used, as theoretical and methodological reference, some principles of historical and dialectical materialism by Triviños (2007) and historical cultural approach of education by Freire (1987; 1996) e Vygotsky (1993; 2001; 2007), as well as the meaning of conception by Morin (1996) and Ferreira (2007) and the critical approach of geography by Moraes (2005), Santos (1988; 2004; 2006) and Silva (1989; 2010). Also, we used oral history as a research technique such as Moraes (2004), Bertaux (2010), Ferraroti (2010) and Nóvoa (2010) and semi-structured interviews as data collection tools. Our empirical reference is made of four teachers working in four different public schools in the city mentioned above, providing the needed data to start our research. The objective of such interviews is not the verification of the teachers‟ practice in class or outside them, but it highlights the transitoriness of the evidences mentioned in the research. Thus, we conclude that the conception of landscape mostly accepted by the teachers, once it is a process built along their lives and surrounded by their pedagogical practice, prioritizes the visual and morphological aspects and the sentimental livings related to the conception which is situated in a descriptive level of conception. Effectively, the pedagogical implications of these conceptions at school point to a materialization of geography teaching centered on the non-critical reproduction of school subjects which very little instigate the learners to process, via dialogicity, the re-significations of their essential and multiple attributes despite the several attempts and possibilities of some theoretical and methodological renovations on the application of geographical knowledge about landscape, expressed on the report of the interviewees

O psicólogo e os serviços de acolhimento institucional para crianças e adolescentes

The Shelters are responsible for caring for children and adolescents whose families or guardians are temporarily unable to fulfill his role as care and protection. The activities to be developed by psychologists in these services are greatly important for the elaboration and development of political- pedagogical project of the same, and for reasons pertaining to the present and future of children and adolescents received judgments. The psychologist puts up the challenge of contributing to a better care of children, also cooperating with the implementation of the new care standards of childcare. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of the professional psychologist in assistance to children and adolescents in 13 Shelters in the Metropolitan Region of Natal/RN. For both set out to make visits to the institutions to know how it is organized the field work of the psychologist, his routine work and activities developed. Nine psychologists interviewed according to a semi-structured interview script. The data analysis is supported by the theoretical aspects of dialectical materialism historical and theme content analysis was used. Results were presented from three angles: psychologists and institutional framework; activities, resources and methods of work; psychologists and legal frameworks of the Institutional Hospitality. The study points out the recent entry of the psychologist in Shelters, combined with considerable turnover of these professionals. This work has been organized through the Individualized Service Plan, prioritizing the return to family of origin. Moreover, in general, perform joints with the service network, reporting, individual consultations and follow-adoption processes . Staff members, however, feel a lack of specific and continuing training on special protection, including due to the distance between the proposed theory and practice. It was thus observed a movement of psychologists distance themselves from welfare or repressive practices, however the structural difficulties of services and lack of continuing education appear to limit the development of a performance focused on the transformation of the reality of children and adolescents treated and their families

O trabalho dos assistentes sociais no âmbito hospitalar: as particularidades da sua inserção no Hospital Universitário Onofre Lopes (HUOL), em Natal/RN/

This study aimed to analyze the work of social workers at the Hospital Universitário Onofre Lopes (HUOL), with the analytical approach the contracting process with the HUOL with the National Health System (SUS), which is set from 2004. Thus, this study sought in times of state reform, restructuring and tension between enlargement / reduction of social and labor rights, understanding the limits and possibilities of social work in HUOL, analyzing how these determinations bounce in the practice of social workers included in the collective process of health work. From a theoretical and methodological historical and dialectical materialism, we conducted literature search, in which developed book report and readings of texts, articles, books that focus on the central categories of the study, namely: Work, Social Work, Health, Health Reform , Project ethical and professional politician. Operationalized also a documentary research, on the Brazilian Public Health Policy, (SUS) and of the Education, as well as research field in which we conducted interviews with 11 social workers, employees packed the HUOL. We conclude that social workers did not participate in the discussion process of contracting the HUOL with the Municipal Health Secretariat of Natal, RN, manager of health and full resetting of user access, via reference setting - counter-referral services provided by the hospital brought the main demands on Social Work guidance regarding the functionality of SUS, and the social intervention in the struggle to guarantee such access. However, the data show that the expansion of demands that require the intervention of the social worker at HUOL is not associated with quantitative growth of these professionals need. Such conditions inflect the possibilities of materialization of the professional ethical-political project, even though that these professionals worry and seek the intellectual improvement, quality of service and to guarantee the social rights of users in the professional practice everyday

Mídia e gênero: análise crítica da violência contra a mulher no telejornalismo

This thesis is consisted of a theoretical and empirical study about the treatment given by media, particularly on telejournalism, to violence against women. It aims to analyze and reflect about the role of media, particularly television, on the process of reproduction of patriarchy system of gender on the context of Brazilian society, from content and narrative news about crimes committed against Andreia Rodrigues and Eliza Samudio. In light of the critical perspective, we seek to apprehend the particularities of patriarchy as a system of domination and subjugation of women, and also reveal the involvement of traditional means of media on reproduction and maintenance of inequality between men and women. To apprehend that reality, we had as guidance a critical social theory, grounded in historical-dialectical materialism which enabled us to apprehend the phenomenon under investigation actually enrolled in a dynamic and contradictory reality. The research had qualitative approach. We appeal to the specialized literature of the area from classical and contemporary authors. We conducted a content analysis of categorized matters, and interviews with individuals involved in issues of gender and / or communication. The critical examination of the matters indicated that television journalism is permeated by the contradictions inherent in social life, means that states and restates the ideology of ruling classes, their values and worldviews, but also express conflicts and social demands. The study revealed that prevails on television playing stereotypes and gender inequalities. We could also see that violence against women gets a sensationalist overblown approach and with no insights on the social relations that determine and base it.

Movimentos sociais e organização popular em Natal-RN: enquanto morar for privilégio...

To the extent that the expansion of cities is increasingly pushing and segregating the working class to outlying areas, devoid of services and infrastructure, the urban space is also important as a space in the class struggle, and in this direction, the this study aims to analyze the political organization of urban social movements and popular organizations existing in Natal-RN, nowadays, in their process of struggle for social rights, with emphasis on the right to the city. With this dimension, we appropriate the contributions of historical and dialectical materialism because we believe that this benchmark enables the understanding of the processes of collective organization and a critical perspective of totality, going beyond its immediate appearance. For production data conducted literature, documentary and field, through semi-structured interviews recorded with (the) mapped leaders of organizations in our survey, as well as advisory bodies to the movements studied. The results of the study allowed us to characterize the action of the political movements in urban Christmas struggle for recognition and guarantee of the right to the city and seize the advances and obstacles in the process of intervention of social movements and popular organizations existing in Natal, highlighting dilemmas and contradictions underlie the processes of organization and mobilization in the contemporary period. Thus, we conclude that the Natal territory, as in contemporary Brazil, the urban and political action movements that show the public scene and intertwine necessarily relate to historical trend that has been performing since the 1990s, when the country entered a period marked by a new bourgeois offensive

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE and HUMAN CONSEQUENCES of AFRICANIZED BEE STINGS IN THE AMERICAS

In 1956, Africanized bees began to spread in the American continent from southern Brazil, where original African bees mated with European bees. A few years later, in 1990, these Africanized bees reached the United States and were found in Texas. Currently, these hybrid bees are found in several North American states and will probably reach the Canadian border in the future. Although the presence of Africanized bees had produced positive effects on Brazilian economy, including improvement in crop pollination and in honey production, turning Brazil into a major exporter, the negative impacts-such as swarming, aggressive behavior, and the ability to mass attack-resulted in serious and fatal envenomation with humans and animals. Victims of bee attacks usually develop a severe envenomation syndrome characterized by the release of a large amount of cytokines [interleukins (IL) IL-1, IL-6, IL-8], and tumor necrosis factor (TNF). Subsequently, such cytokines produce an acute inflammatory response that triggers adverse effects on skeletal muscles; bone marrow; hepatic and renal functions; and cardiovascular, central nervous, and immune systems. Finally, the aim of the present review is to study historical characteristics and current status of Africanized bees' spread, the composition of their venom, the impact of the bees on the Brazilian economy and ecology, and clinical aspects of their stings including immune response, and to suggest a protocol for bee sting management since there is no safe and effective antivenom available.

Molecular systematic and historical biogeography of the armored Neotropical catfishes Hypoptopomatinae and Neoplecostominae (Siluriformes: Loricariidae)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Bouchardia rosea, a vanishing brachiopod species of the Brazilian platform: taphonomy, historical ecology and conservation paleobiology

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)