Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

Probing the scalar-pseudoscalar mixing in the 125 GeV Higgs particle with current data

LHC has found hints for a Higgs particle of 125 GeV. We investigate the possibility that such a particle is a mixture of scalar and pseudoscalar states. For definiteness, we concentrate on a two-Higgs doublet model with explicit CP violation and soft Z(2) violation. Including all Higgs production mechanisms, we determine the current constraints obtained by comparing h -> yy with h -> VV*, and comment on the information which can be gained by measurements of h -> b (b) over bar. We find bounds vertical bar s(2)vertical bar less than or similar to 0.83 at one sigma, where vertical bar s(2)vertical bar = 0 (vertical bar s(2)vertical bar = 1) corresponds to a pure scalar (pure pseudoscalar) state.

Metastability bounds on the two Higgs doublet model

In the two Higgs doublet model, there is the possibility that the vacuum where the universe resides in is metastable. We present the tree-level bounds on the scalar potential parameters which have to be obeyed to prevent that situation. Analytical expressions for those bounds are shown for the most used potential, that with a softly broken Z(2) symmetry. The impact of those bounds on the model's phenomenology is discussed in detail, as well as the importance of the current LHC results in determining whether the vacuum we live in is or is not stable. We demonstrate how the vacuum stability bounds can be obtained for the most generic CP-conserving potential, and provide a simple method to implement them.

Difficulties in the Learning of Statistics by the Students of the Primary Education

The present study, covering students from public schools and a private school on the island of São Miguel (Azores, Portugal), aims to meet the difficulties of the students of the 3rd and 4th years of the primary education in solving tasks involving construction, reading and interpreting tables and statistical graphs, in the context of Organization and Data Handling (ODH). We present the main results obtained from statistical methods, among which we highlight some non-parametric hypothesis tests and the Categorical Principal Component Analysis (CatPCA), given the nature of the variables included in the questionnaire (mostly nominal and ordinal variables).

Arrow plot and CA maps on microarray preprocessing methods

Microarray allow to monitoring simultaneously thousands of genes, where the abundance of the transcripts under a same experimental condition at the same time can be quantified. Among various available array technologies, double channel cDNA microarray experiments have arisen in numerous technical protocols associated to genomic studies, which is the focus of this work. Microarray experiments involve many steps and each one can affect the quality of raw data. Background correction and normalization are preprocessing techniques to clean and correct the raw data when undesirable fluctuations arise from technical factors. Several recent studies showed that there is no preprocessing strategy that outperforms others in all circumstances and thus it seems difficult to provide general recommendations. In this work, it is proposed to use exploratory techniques to visualize the effects of preprocessing methods on statistical analysis of cancer two-channel microarray data sets, where the cancer types (classes) are known. For selecting differential expressed genes the arrow plot was used and the graph of profiles resultant from the correspondence analysis for visualizing the results. It was used 6 background methods and 6 normalization methods, performing 36 pre-processing methods and it was analyzed in a published cDNA microarray database (Liver) available at http://genome-www5.stanford.edu/ which microarrays were already classified by cancer type. All statistical analyses were performed using the R statistical software.

Methods and challenges for the health impact assessment of vaccination programs in Latin America

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe methods and challenges faced in the health impact assessment of vaccination programs, focusing on the pneumococcal conjugate and rotavirus vaccines in Latin America and the Caribbean. METHODS For this narrative review, we searched for the terms "rotavirus", "pneumococcal", "conjugate vaccine", "vaccination", "program", and "impact" in the databases Medline and LILACS. The search was extended to the grey literature in Google Scholar. No limits were defined for publication year. Original articles on the health impact assessment of pneumococcal and rotavirus vaccination programs in Latin America and the Caribbean in English, Spanish or Portuguese were included. RESULTS We identified 207 articles. After removing duplicates and assessing eligibility, we reviewed 33 studies, 25 focusing on rotavirus and eight on pneumococcal vaccination programs. The most frequent studies were ecological, with time series analysis or comparing pre- and post-vaccination periods. The main data sources were: health information systems; population-, sentinel- or laboratory-based surveillance systems; statistics reports; and medical records from one or few health care services. Few studies used primary data. Hospitalization and death were the main outcomes assessed. CONCLUSIONS Over the last years, a significant number of health impact assessments of pneumococcal and rotavirus vaccination programs have been conducted in Latin America and the Caribbean. These studies were carried out few years after the programs were implemented, meet the basic methodological requirements and suggest positive health impact. Future assessments should consider methodological issues and challenges arisen in these first studies conducted in the region.

Access to childbirth care by adolescents and young people in the Northeastern region of Brazil

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To identify the factors that interfere with the access of adolescents and young people to childbirth care for in the Northeast region of Brazil. METHODS Cross-sectional study with 3,014 adolescents and young people admitted to the selected maternity wards to give birth in the Northeast region of Brazil. The sample design was probabilistic, in two stages: the first corresponded to the health establishments and the second to women who had recently given birth and their babies. The data was collected by means of interviews and consulting the hospital records, from pre-tested electronic form. Descriptive statistics were used for the univariate analysis, Pearson’s Chi-square test for the bivariate analysis and multiple logistic regressions for the multivariate analysis. Sociodemographic variables, obstetrical history, and birth care were analyzed. RESULTS Half of the adolescents and young people interviewed had not been given guidance on the location that they should go to when in labor, and among those who had, 23.5% did not give birth in the indicated health service. Furthermore, one third (33.3%) had to travel in search of assisted birth, and the majority (66.7%) of the postpartum women came to maternity by their own means. In the bivariate analysis, the variables marital status, paid work, health insurance, number of previous pregnancies, parity, city location, and type of health establishment showed a significant association (p < 0.20) with inadequate access to childbirth care. The multivariate analysis showed that married adolescents and young people (p < 0.015), with no health insurance (p < 0.002) and from the countryside (p < 0.001) were more likely to have inadequate access to childbirth care. CONCLUSIONS Adolescents and young women, married, without health insurance, and from the countryside are more likely to have inadequate access to birth care. The articulation between outpatient care and birth care can improve this access and, consequently, minimize the maternal and fetal risks that arise from a lack of systematic hospitalization planning.

Some reflections on acquisition, processing and analysis of statistical data in forest soils

Beyond the classical statistical approaches (determination of basic statistics, regression analysis, ANOVA, etc.) a new set of applications of different statistical techniques has increasingly gained relevance in the analysis, processing and interpretation of data concerning the characteristics of forest soils. This is possible to be seen in some of the recent publications in the context of Multivariate Statistics. These new methods require additional care that is not always included or refered in some approaches. In the particular case of geostatistical data applications it is necessary, besides to geo-reference all the data acquisition, to collect the samples in regular grids and in sufficient quantity so that the variograms can reflect the spatial distribution of soil properties in a representative manner. In the case of the great majority of Multivariate Statistics techniques (Principal Component Analysis, Correspondence Analysis, Cluster Analysis, etc.) despite the fact they do not require in most cases the assumption of normal distribution, they however need a proper and rigorous strategy for its utilization. In this work, some reflections about these methodologies and, in particular, about the main constraints that often occur during the information collecting process and about the various linking possibilities of these different techniques will be presented. At the end, illustrations of some particular cases of the applications of these statistical methods will also be presented.

Extremum estimators and stochastic optimization methods

Submitted in partial fulfillment for the Requirements for the Degree of PhD in Mathematics, in the Speciality of Statistics in the Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Efeitos imediatos da técnica de desrotação do atlas de Rocabado e do SNAG C1/2 de Mulligan na amplitude do teste de flexão-rotação em indíviduos com cefaleia cervicogénica : um ensaio clínico aleatório

RESUMO: A cefaleia cervicogénica é uma forma comum de dor de cabeça, que tem sido associada à existência de uma disfunção das estruturas da coluna cervical superior. Estudos recentes mostram uma grande incidência dessa disfunção a nível de C1-C2, avaliada pelo teste de flexão-rotação. Vários terapeutas manuais, como Brian Mulligan e Mariano Rocabado, têm sido sugerido técnicas de tratamento para este tipo de disfunção. Contudo, a evidência acerca da efectividade dessas técnicas é escassa. Desenho do estudo: Foi efectuado um ensaio clínico aleatório, duplamente cego, composto por três fases: pré-intervenção, intervenção e pós-intervenção. Objectivos: Avaliar e comparar os efeitos imediatos de duas técnicas de Terapia Manual Ortopédica (SNAG C1/2 de Mulligan e técnica de desrotação do atlas de Rocabado), na amplitude de movimento de rotação do segmento vertebral C1-C2, em indivíduos com história de cefaleia cervicogénica e com limitação no teste de flexão-rotação. As técnicas de tratamento foram usadas de forma isolada, em comparação a um grupo placebo. Métodos: Uma amostra de 60 indivíduos, com cefaleia cervicogénica e limitação do teste de flexão-rotação, foram aleatoriamente distribuídos por três grupos: SNAG C1/2 de Mulligan, técnica de desrotação do atlas de Rocabado e grupo placebo. O outcome primário foi a amplitude de movimento obtida no teste de flexão-rotação, que foi medido antes e imediatamente após a intervenção. Resultados: Imediatamente após a intervenção, a amplitude verificada no teste de flexão-rotação aumentou 21.8º (DP, 4.68) no grupo submetido ao SNAG C1/2 de Mulligan, 15º (DP, 5.07) no grupo em que foi aplicada a técnica de desrotação do atlas de Rocabado e 0.65º (DP, 0.67) no grupo placebo. Uma ANOVA modelo misto, 2 por 3, revelou efeito principal significativo do tempo (p<.001) e grupo (p<.001), assim como uma interacção significativa entre grupo e tempo (p<.001), relativamente à variável amplitude do teste de flexão-rotação. Estes resultados indicam que as diferenças verificadas entre os grupos eram dependentes do momento de avaliação. Uma comparação múltipla post hoc revelou que quer as técnicas de Mulligan, quer de Rocabado, produziram efeitos significativamente maiores que a intervenção placebo na amplitude de movimento do teste de flexão-rotação (p<.001 e p=.001, respectivamente). No entanto,não se verificou uma diferença significativa no que diz respeito à efectividade de ambas as técnicas de Terapia Manual Ortopédica aplicadas (p=.42). Conclusão: Esta investigação sugere que as duas técnicas de Terapia Manual Ortopédica avaliadas produziram efeito clínica e estatisticamente significativo na amplitude do teste de flexão-rotação. No entanto, não se verificaram diferenças entre as duas técnicas, no que diz respeito ao seu efeito no ganho de amplitude de movimento. Os resultados obtidos fornecem evidência preliminar sobre a efectividade de ambas as intervenções no tratamento da redução de amplitude de movimento em indivíduos com história de cefaleia cervicogénica.-------------------------------ABSTRACT:Background: Cervicogenic headache is a common form of headache arising from dysfunction in structures of the upper cervical spine. Recent studies have shown a high incidence of C1/2 dysfunction, evaluated by the flexion-rotation test (FRT). Several manual therapists have suggested different approaches to manage that dysfunction, such as Brian Mulligan and Mariano Rocabado. However, the evidence of the effectiveness of those manual techniques is anedoctal. Design: Randomized double blinded controlled trial with three phases: pre-intervention, intervention and post-intervention. Objectives: To determine and compare the immediate effects of two manual therapy techniques (Mulligan’s SNAG C1/2 and Rocabado’s atlas’ derotation technique) in the range of motion of C1-C2 vertebral segments, in cervicogenic headache patients and with limitation on the flexion-rotatoin test. The treatment techniques were used as single treatments against a placebo group. Methods: A sample of 60 subjects with cervicogenic headache and FRT limitation were randomly allocated into one of three groups: Mulligan’s C1/2 SNAG, Rocabado’s atlas derotation technique or placebo group. The primary outcome was the flexion rotation test range, which was measured before and immediately after the intervention. Results: Immediately after the application of the interventions, FRT range increased by 21.8º (SD, 4.68) for the Mulligan’s C1-2 SNAG group, 15º (SD, 5.07) for the Rocabado’s atlas derotation technique and 0.65º (SD, 0.67) for the placebo group. A 2-by-3 mixedmodel ANOVA a significant main effect of time (p<.001) and group (p<.001), as well as a significant interaction between group and time (p<.001) for the variable FRT range. These results indicate that group differences were dependent on time. A pairwise post hoc comparison revelad that both the Mulligan and Rocabado techniques produced significantly more effect on FRT range of motion than the placebo intervention (p<.001 and p=.001, respectively). However, there was not a significant difference between the effectiveness of the two manual therapy techniques (p=.42).Conclusion: This investigation’s findings suggest that both Mulligan’s C1/2 SNAG and Rocabado’s atlas derotation techniques produced a clinically and statistically significant effect on FRT range, but there were no changes between the two techniques in their effectiveness. These results provide preliminary evidence for the efficacy of both manual therapy techniques in the management of individuals with cervicogenic headache and FRT limitation.

Perfil lipídico e fatores biológicos e ambientais : o papel da atividade física

RESUMO - Introdução: A inatividade física é um dos determinantes major das doenças crónicas não transmissíveis sendo a quarta maior causa de mortalidade no mundo, nomeadamente para as doenças vasculares. A prática regular de atividade física produz adaptações vasculares responsáveis por efeitos benéficos na prevenção e tratamento dos diferentes fatores de risco vascular, nomeadamente através do seu efeito no metabolismo das lipoproteínas. Objetivos: Analisar a interferência da atividade física no perfil lipídico de uma população residente em Portugal. Métodos: Estudo observacional descritivo transversal exploratório com 1027 indivíduos (idade: 18 aos 80 anos, 49% mulheres). Os dados foram analisados em SPSS (versão 20), tendo-se utilizado métodos de estatística descritiva e de análise bivariável entre os factores de risco vascular e as variáveis do perfil lipídico e ainda uma análise multivariável de regressão logística binária para medir a razão de riscos pelo odds ratio. O nível de significância foi estabelecido em 5%. Resultados: Na análise da relação entre atividade física e os biomarcadores do perfil lipídico verificou-se que existem benefícios no que diz respeito ao aumento dos níveis de HDL e de apoA1 e na diminuição dos níveis de TG com a prática regular de atividade física. Conclusões: A atividade física apresenta um papel importante na regulação do perfil lipídico evidenciando a necessidade de implementar estratégias multissectoriais de prevenção dos fatores de risco vascular, nomeadamente na área dos estilos de vida saudáveis que são fundamentais para a prevenção destas condições de saúde e para gerar ganhos em saúde.

Flexible multivariate GARCH modeling with an application to international stock markets

This paper offers a new approach to estimating time-varying covariance matrices in the framework of the diagonal-vech version of the multivariate GARCH(1,1) model. Our method is numerically feasible for large-scale problems, produces positive semidefinite conditional covariance matrices, and does not impose unrealistic a priori restrictions. We provide an empirical application in the context of international stock markets, comparing the nev^ estimator with a number of existing ones.

Jet energy measurement and its systematic uncertainty in proton-proton collisions at s√=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The jet energy scale (JES) and its systematic uncertainty are determined for jets measured with the ATLAS detector using proton–proton collision data with a centre-of-mass energy of s√=7 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.7 fb −1 . Jets are reconstructed from energy deposits forming topological clusters of calorimeter cells using the anti- kt algorithm with distance parameters R=0.4 or R=0.6 , and are calibrated using MC simulations. A residual JES correction is applied to account for differences between data and MC simulations. This correction and its systematic uncertainty are estimated using a combination of in situ techniques exploiting the transverse momentum balance between a jet and a reference object such as a photon or a Z boson, for 20≤pjetT<1000 GeV and pseudorapidities |η|<4.5 . The effect of multiple proton–proton interactions is corrected for, and an uncertainty is evaluated using in situ techniques. The smallest JES uncertainty of less than 1 % is found in the central calorimeter region ( |η|<1.2 ) for jets with 55≤pjetT<500 GeV . For central jets at lower pT , the uncertainty is about 3 %. A consistent JES estimate is found using measurements of the calorimeter response of single hadrons in proton–proton collisions and test-beam data, which also provide the estimate for pjetT>1 TeV. The calibration of forward jets is derived from dijet pT balance measurements. The resulting uncertainty reaches its largest value of 6 % for low- pT jets at |η|=4.5 . Additional JES uncertainties due to specific event topologies, such as close-by jets or selections of event samples with an enhanced content of jets originating from light quarks or gluons, are also discussed. The magnitude of these uncertainties depends on the event sample used in a given physics analysis, but typically amounts to 0.5–3 %.

Differential top-antitop cross-section measurements as a function of observables constructed from final-state particles using pp collisions at s√=7 TeV in the ATLAS detector

Various differential cross-sections are measured in top-quark pair (tt¯) events produced in proton--proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of s√=7 TeV at the LHC with the ATLAS detector. These differential cross-sections are presented in a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.6 fb−1. The differential cross-sections are presented in terms of kinematic variables of a top-quark proxy referred to as the pseudo-top-quark whose dependence on theoretical models is minimal. The pseudo-top-quark can be defined in terms of either reconstructed detector objects or stable particles in an analogous way. The measurements are performed on tt¯ events in the lepton+jets channel, requiring exactly one charged lepton and at least four jets with at least two of them tagged as originating from a b-quark. The hadronic and leptonic pseudo-top-quarks are defined via the leptonic or hadronic decay mode of the W boson produced by the top-quark decay in events with a single charged lepton.The cross-section is measured as a function of the transverse momentum and rapidity of both the hadronic and leptonic pseudo-top-quark as well as the transverse momentum, rapidity and invariant mass of the pseudo-top-quark pair system. The measurements are corrected for detector effects and are presented within a kinematic range that closely matches the detector acceptance. Differential cross-section measurements of the pseudo-top-quark variables are compared with several Monte Carlo models that implement next-to-leading order or leading-order multi-leg matrix-element calculations.

Evidence of Wγγ production in pp collisions at s√=8 TeV and limits on anomalous quartic gauge couplings with the ATLAS detector

This Letter reports evidence of triple gauge boson production pp→W(ℓν)γγ+X, which is accessible for the first time with the 8 TeV LHC data set. The fiducial cross section for this process is measured in a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb−1, collected by the ATLAS detector in 2012. Events are selected using the W boson decay to eν or μν as well as requiring two isolated photons. The measured cross section is used to set limits on anomalous quartic gauge couplings in the high diphoton mass region.