Structure and mechanism of diet specialisation: testing models of individual variation in resource use with sea otters

Studies of consumer-resource interactions suggest that individual diet specialisation is empirically widespread and theoretically important to the organisation and dynamics of populations and communities. We used weighted networks to analyze the resource use by sea otters, testing three alternative models for how individual diet specialisation may arise. As expected, individual specialisation was absent when otter density was low, but increased at high-otter density. A high-density emergence of nested resource-use networks was consistent with the model assuming individuals share preference ranks. However, a density-dependent emergence of a non-nested modular network for core resources was more consistent with the competitive refuge model. Individuals from different diet modules showed predictable variation in rank-order prey preferences and handling times of core resources, further supporting the competitive refuge model. Our findings support a hierarchical organisation of diet specialisation and suggest individual use of core and marginal resources may be driven by different selective pressures.

Theoretical models for the antitrypanosomal activity of thiosemicarbazone derivatives

Thiosemicarbazones are cruzain inhibitors which have been identified as potential antitrypanosomal agents. In this work, several molecular properties were calculated at the density functional theory (DFT)/B3LYP/6-311G* level for a set of 44 thiosemicarbazones. Unsupervised and supervised pattern recognition techniques (hierarchical cluster analysis, principal component analysis, kth-nearest neighbors, and soft independent modeling by class analogy) were used to obtain structureactivity relationship models, which are able to classify unknown compounds according to their activities. The chemometric analyses performed here revealed that 12 descriptors can be considered responsible for the discrimination between high and low activity compounds. Classification models were validated with an external test set, showing that predictive classifications were achieved with the selected variable set. The results obtained here are in good agreement with previous findings from the literature, suggesting that our models can be useful on further investigations on the molecular determinants for the antichagasic activity. (C) 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Parameter recovery for a skew-normal IRT model under a Bayesian approach: hierarchical framework, prior and kernel sensitivity and sample size

Item response theory (IRT) comprises a set of statistical models which are useful in many fields, especially when there is an interest in studying latent variables (or latent traits). Usually such latent traits are assumed to be random variables and a convenient distribution is assigned to them. A very common choice for such a distribution has been the standard normal. Recently, Azevedo et al. [Bayesian inference for a skew-normal IRT model under the centred parameterization, Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 55 (2011), pp. 353-365] proposed a skew-normal distribution under the centred parameterization (SNCP) as had been studied in [R. B. Arellano-Valle and A. Azzalini, The centred parametrization for the multivariate skew-normal distribution, J. Multivariate Anal. 99(7) (2008), pp. 1362-1382], to model the latent trait distribution. This approach allows one to represent any asymmetric behaviour concerning the latent trait distribution. Also, they developed a Metropolis-Hastings within the Gibbs sampling (MHWGS) algorithm based on the density of the SNCP. They showed that the algorithm recovers all parameters properly. Their results indicated that, in the presence of asymmetry, the proposed model and the estimation algorithm perform better than the usual model and estimation methods. Our main goal in this paper is to propose another type of MHWGS algorithm based on a stochastic representation (hierarchical structure) of the SNCP studied in [N. Henze, A probabilistic representation of the skew-normal distribution, Scand. J. Statist. 13 (1986), pp. 271-275]. Our algorithm has only one Metropolis-Hastings step, in opposition to the algorithm developed by Azevedo et al., which has two such steps. This not only makes the implementation easier but also reduces the number of proposal densities to be used, which can be a problem in the implementation of MHWGS algorithms, as can be seen in [R.J. Patz and B.W. Junker, A straightforward approach to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for item response models, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(2) (1999), pp. 146-178; R. J. Patz and B. W. Junker, The applications and extensions of MCMC in IRT: Multiple item types, missing data, and rated responses, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(4) (1999), pp. 342-366; A. Gelman, G.O. Roberts, and W.R. Gilks, Efficient Metropolis jumping rules, Bayesian Stat. 5 (1996), pp. 599-607]. Moreover, we consider a modified beta prior (which generalizes the one considered in [3]) and a Jeffreys prior for the asymmetry parameter. Furthermore, we study the sensitivity of such priors as well as the use of different kernel densities for this parameter. Finally, we assess the impact of the number of examinees, number of items and the asymmetry level on the parameter recovery. Results of the simulation study indicated that our approach performed equally as well as that in [3], in terms of parameter recovery, mainly using the Jeffreys prior. Also, they indicated that the asymmetry level has the highest impact on parameter recovery, even though it is relatively small. A real data analysis is considered jointly with the development of model fitting assessment tools. The results are compared with the ones obtained by Azevedo et al. The results indicate that using the hierarchical approach allows us to implement MCMC algorithms more easily, it facilitates diagnosis of the convergence and also it can be very useful to fit more complex skew IRT models.

Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

Stochastic methods based on time-series modeling combined with geostatistics can be useful tools to describe the variability of water-table levels in time and space and to account for uncertainty. Monitoring water-level networks can give information about the dynamic of the aquifer domain in both dimensions. Time-series modeling is an elegant way to treat monitoring data without the complexity of physical mechanistic models. Time-series model predictions can be interpolated spatially, with the spatial differences in water-table dynamics determined by the spatial variation in the system properties and the temporal variation driven by the dynamics of the inputs into the system. An integration of stochastic methods is presented, based on time-series modeling and geostatistics as a framework to predict water levels for decision making in groundwater management and land-use planning. The methodology is applied in a case study in a Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) outcrop area located in the southeastern part of Brazil. Communication of results in a clear and understandable form, via simulated scenarios, is discussed as an alternative, when translating scientific knowledge into applications of stochastic hydrogeology in large aquifers with limited monitoring network coverage like the GAS.

Dynamic Range of Vertebrate Retina Ganglion Cells: Importance of Active Dendrites and Coupling by Electrical Synapses

The vertebrate retina has a very high dynamic range. This is due to the concerted action of its diverse cell types. Ganglion cells, which are the output cells of the retina, have to preserve this high dynamic range to convey it to higher brain areas. Experimental evidence shows that the firing response of ganglion cells is strongly correlated with their total dendritic area and only weakly correlated with their dendritic branching complexity. On the other hand, theoretical studies with simple neuron models claim that active and large dendritic trees enhance the dynamic range of single neurons. Theoretical models also claim that electrical coupling between ganglion cells via gap junctions enhances their collective dynamic range. In this work we use morphologically reconstructed multi-compartmental ganglion cell models to perform two studies. In the first study we investigate the relationship between single ganglion cell dynamic range and number of dendritic branches/total dendritic area for both active and passive dendrites. Our results support the claim that large and active dendrites enhance the dynamic range of a single ganglion cell and show that total dendritic area has stronger correlation with dynamic range than with number of dendritic branches. In the second study we investigate the dynamic range of a square array of ganglion cells with passive or active dendritic trees coupled with each other via dendrodendritic gap junctions. Our results suggest that electrical coupling between active dendritic trees enhances the dynamic range of the ganglion cell array in comparison with both the uncoupled case and the coupled case with cells with passive dendrites. The results from our detailed computational modeling studies suggest that the key properties of the ganglion cells that endow them with a large dynamic range are large and active dendritic trees and electrical coupling via gap junctions.

A decaying factor accounts for contained activity in neuronal networks with no need of hierarchical or modular organization

The mechanisms responsible for containing activity in systems represented by networks are crucial in various phenomena, for example, in diseases such as epilepsy that affect the neuronal networks and for information dissemination in social networks. The first models to account for contained activity included triggering and inhibition processes, but they cannot be applied to social networks where inhibition is clearly absent. A recent model showed that contained activity can be achieved with no need of inhibition processes provided that the network is subdivided into modules (communities). In this paper, we introduce a new concept inspired in the Hebbian theory, through which containment of activity is achieved by incorporating a dynamics based on a decaying activity in a random walk mechanism preferential to the node activity. Upon selecting the decay coefficient within a proper range, we observed sustained activity in all the networks tested, namely, random, Barabasi-Albert and geographical networks. The generality of this finding was confirmed by showing that modularity is no longer needed if the dynamics based on the integrate-and-fire dynamics incorporated the decay factor. Taken together, these results provide a proof of principle that persistent, restrained network activation might occur in the absence of any particular topological structure. This may be the reason why neuronal activity does not spread out to the entire neuronal network, even when no special topological organization exists.

Models of passive and active dendrite motoneuron pools and their differences in muscle force control

Motoneuron (MN) dendrites may be changed from a passive to an active state by increasing the levels of spinal cord neuromodulators, which activate persistent inward currents (PICs). These exert a powerful influence on MN behavior and modify the motor control both in normal and pathological conditions. Motoneuronal PICs are believed to induce nonlinear phenomena such as the genesis of extra torque and torque hysteresis in response to percutaneous electrical stimulation or tendon vibration in humans. An existing large-scale neuromuscular simulator was expanded to include MN models that have a capability to change their dynamic behaviors depending on the neuromodulation level. The simulation results indicated that the variability (standard deviation) of a maintained force depended on the level of neuromodulatory activity. A force with lower variability was obtained when the motoneuronal network was under a strong influence of PICs, suggesting a functional role in postural and precision tasks. In an additional set of simulations when PICs were active in the dendrites of the MN models, the results successfully reproduced experimental results reported from humans. Extra torque was evoked by the self-sustained discharge of spinal MNs, whereas differences in recruitment and de-recruitment levels of the MNs were the main reason behind torque and electromyogram (EMG) hysteresis. Finally, simulations were also used to study the influence of inhibitory inputs on a MN pool that was under the effect of PICs. The results showed that inhibition was of great importance in the production of a phasic force, requiring a reduced co-contraction of agonist and antagonist muscles. These results show the richness of functionally relevant behaviors that can arise from a MN pool under the action of PICs.

Annealed Ising model on hierarchical structures: a transfer matrix approach.

Spin systems in the presence of disorder are described by two sets of degrees of freedom, associated with orientational (spin) and disorder variables, which may be characterized by two distinct relaxation times. Disordered spin models have been mostly investigated in the quenched regime, which is the usual situation in solid state physics, and in which the relaxation time of the disorder variables is much larger than the typical measurement times. In this quenched regime, disorder variables are fixed, and only the orientational variables are duly thermalized. Recent studies in the context of lattice statistical models for the phase diagrams of nematic liquid-crystalline systems have stimulated the interest of going beyond the quenched regime. The phase diagrams predicted by these calculations for a simple Maier-Saupe model turn out to be qualitative different from the quenched case if the two sets of degrees of freedom are allowed to reach thermal equilibrium during the experimental time, which is known as the fully annealed regime. In this work, we develop a transfer matrix formalism to investigate annealed disordered Ising models on two hierarchical structures, the diamond hierarchical lattice (DHL) and the Apollonian network (AN). The calculations follow the same steps used for the analysis of simple uniform systems, which amounts to deriving proper recurrence maps for the thermodynamic and magnetic variables in terms of the generations of the construction of the hierarchical structures. In this context, we may consider different kinds of disorder, and different types of ferromagnetic and anti-ferromagnetic interactions. In the present work, we analyze the effects of dilution, which are produced by the removal of some magnetic ions. The system is treated in a “grand canonical" ensemble. The introduction of two extra fields, related to the concentration of two different types of particles, leads to higher-rank transfer matrices as compared with the formalism for the usual uniform models. Preliminary calculations on a DHL indicate that there is a phase transition for a wide range of dilution concentrations. Ising spin systems on the AN are known to be ferromagnetically ordered at all temperatures; in the presence of dilution, however, there are indications of a disordered (paramagnetic) phase at low concentrations of magnetic ions.

A dynamic model of oceanic sulfur (DMOS) applied to the Sargasso Sea: Simulating the dimethylsulfide (DMS) summer paradox

[EN]A new one-dimensional model of DMSP/DMS dynamics (DMOS) is developed and applied to the Sargasso Sea in order to explain what drives the observed dimethylsulfide (DMS) summer paradox: a summer DMS concentration maximum concurrent with a minimum in the biomass of phytoplankton, the producers of the DMS precursor dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP). Several mechanisms have been postulated to explain this mismatch: a succession in phytoplankton species composition towards higher relative abundances of DMSP producers in summer; inhibition of bacterial DMS consumption by ultraviolet radiation (UVR); and direct DMS production by phytoplankton due to UVR-induced oxidative stress. None of these hypothetical mechanisms, except for the first one, has been tested with a dynamic model. We have coupled a new sulfur cycle model that incorporates the latest knowledge on DMSP/DMS dynamics to a preexisting nitrogen/carbon-based ecological model that explicitly simulates the microbial-loop. This allows the role of bacteria in DMS production and consumption to be represented and quantified. The main improvements of DMOS with respect to previous DMSP/DMS models are the explicit inclusion of: solar-radiation inhibition of bacterial sulfur uptakes; DMS exudation by phytoplankton caused by solar-radiation-induced stress; and uptake of dissolved DMSP by phytoplankton. We have conducted a series of modeling experiments where some of the DMOS sulfur paths are turned “off” or “on,” and the results on chlorophyll-a, bacteria, DMS, and DMSP (particulate and dissolved) concentrations have been compared with climatological data of these same variables. The simulated rate of sulfur cycling processes are also compared with the scarce data available from previous works. All processes seem to play a role in driving DMS seasonality. Among them, however, solar-radiation-induced DMS exudation by phytoplankton stands out as the process without which the model is unable to produce realistic DMS simulations and reproduce the DMS summer paradox.

Dynamic services in mobile ad hoc networks

The increasing diffusion of wireless-enabled portable devices is pushing toward the design of novel service scenarios, promoting temporary and opportunistic interactions in infrastructure-less environments. Mobile Ad Hoc Networks (MANET) are the general model of these higly dynamic networks that can be specialized, depending on application cases, in more specific and refined models such as Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks and Wireless Sensor Networks. Two interesting deployment cases are of increasing relevance: resource diffusion among users equipped with portable devices, such as laptops, smart phones or PDAs in crowded areas (termed dense MANET) and dissemination/indexing of monitoring information collected in Vehicular Sensor Networks. The extreme dynamicity of these scenarios calls for novel distributed protocols and services facilitating application development. To this aim we have designed middleware solutions supporting these challenging tasks. REDMAN manages, retrieves, and disseminates replicas of software resources in dense MANET; it implements novel lightweight protocols to maintain a desired replication degree despite participants mobility, and efficiently perform resource retrieval. REDMAN exploits the high-density assumption to achieve scalability and limited network overhead. Sensed data gathering and distributed indexing in Vehicular Networks raise similar issues: we propose a specific middleware support, called MobEyes, exploiting node mobility to opportunistically diffuse data summaries among neighbor vehicles. MobEyes creates a low-cost opportunistic distributed index to query the distributed storage and to determine the location of needed information. Extensive validation and testing of REDMAN and MobEyes prove the effectiveness of our original solutions in limiting communication overhead while maintaining the required accuracy of replication degree and indexing completeness, and demonstrates the feasibility of the middleware approach.

Design of wireless sensor networks for fluid dynamic applications

In fluid dynamics research, pressure measurements are of great importance to define the flow field acting on aerodynamic surfaces. In fact the experimental approach is fundamental to avoid the complexity of the mathematical models for predicting the fluid phenomena. It’s important to note that, using in-situ sensor to monitor pressure on large domains with highly unsteady flows, several problems are encountered working with the classical techniques due to the transducer cost, the intrusiveness, the time response and the operating range. An interesting approach for satisfying the previously reported sensor requirements is to implement a sensor network capable of acquiring pressure data on aerodynamic surface using a wireless communication system able to collect the pressure data with the lowest environmental–invasion level possible. In this thesis a wireless sensor network for fluid fields pressure has been designed, built and tested. To develop the system, a capacitive pressure sensor, based on polymeric membrane, and read out circuitry, based on microcontroller, have been designed, built and tested. The wireless communication has been performed using the Zensys Z-WAVE platform, and network and data management have been implemented. Finally, the full embedded system with antenna has been created. As a proof of concept, the monitoring of pressure on the top of the mainsail in a sailboat has been chosen as working example.

A new approach for the dynamic modelling of the human knee

Mathematical models of the knee joint are important tools which have both theoretical and practical applications. They are used by researchers to fully understand the stabilizing role of the components of the joint, by engineers as an aid for prosthetic design, by surgeons during the planning of an operation or during the operation itself, and by orthopedists for diagnosis and rehabilitation purposes. The principal aims of knee models are to reproduce the restraining function of each structure of the joint and to replicate the relative motion of the bones which constitute the joint itself. It is clear that the first point is functional to the second one. However, the standard procedures for the dynamic modelling of the knee tend to be more focused on the second aspect: the motion of the joint is correctly replicated, but the stabilizing role of the articular components is somehow lost. A first contribution of this dissertation is the definition of a novel approach — called sequential approach — for the dynamic modelling of the knee. The procedure makes it possible to develop more and more sophisticated models of the joint by a succession of steps, starting from a first simple model of its passive motion. The fundamental characteristic of the proposed procedure is that the results obtained at each step do not worsen those already obtained at previous steps, thus preserving the restraining function of the knee structures. The models which stem from the first two steps of the sequential approach are then presented. The result of the first step is a model of the passive motion of the knee, comprehensive of the patello-femoral joint. Kinematical and anatomical considerations lead to define a one degree of freedom rigid link mechanism, whose members represent determinate components of the joint. The result of the second step is a stiffness model of the knee. This model is obtained from the first one, by following the rules of the proposed procedure. Both models have been identified from experimental data by means of an optimization procedure. The simulated motions of the models then have been compared to the experimental ones. Both models accurately reproduce the motion of the joint under the corresponding loading conditions. Moreover, the sequential approach makes sure the results obtained at the first step are not worsened at the second step: the stiffness model can also reproduce the passive motion of the knee with the same accuracy than the previous simpler model. The procedure proved to be successful and thus promising for the definition of more complex models which could also involve the effect of muscular forces.

From core rigidities to dynamic capabilities: the role of external knowledge. A multiple case study

This study focuses on the processes of change that firms undertake to overcome conditions of organizational rigidity and develop new dynamic capabilities, thanks to the contribution of external knowledge. When external contingencies highlight firms’ core rigidities, external actors can intervene in change projects, providing new competences to firms’ managers. Knowledge transfer and organizational learning processes can lead to the development of new dynamic capabilities. Existing literature does not completely explain how these processes develop and how external knowledge providers, as management consultants, influence them. Dynamic capabilities literature has become very rich in the last years; however, the models that explain how dynamic capabilities evolve are not particularly investigated. Adopting a qualitative approach, this research proposes four relevant case studies in which external actors introduce new knowledge within organizations, activating processes of change. Each case study consists of a management consulting project. Data are collected through in-depth interviews with consultants and managers. A large amount of documents supports evidences from interviews. A narrative approach is adopted to account for change processes and a synthetic approach is proposed to compare case studies along relevant dimensions. This study presents a model of capabilities evolution, supported by empirical evidence, to explain how external knowledge intervenes in capabilities evolution processes: first, external actors solve gaps between environmental demands and firms’ capabilities, changing organizational structures and routines; second, a knowledge transfer between consultants and managers leads to the creation of new ordinary capabilities; third, managers can develop new dynamic capabilities through a deliberate learning process that internalizes new tacit knowledge from consultants. After the end of the consulting project, two elements can influence the deliberate learning process: new external contingencies and changes in the perceptions about external actors.

Modeling the spatial dynamics of economic models

The advances that have been characterizing spatial econometrics in recent years are mostly theoretical and have not found an extensive empirical application yet. In this work we aim at supplying a review of the main tools of spatial econometrics and to show an empirical application for one of the most recently introduced estimators. Despite the numerous alternatives that the econometric theory provides for the treatment of spatial (and spatiotemporal) data, empirical analyses are still limited by the lack of availability of the correspondent routines in statistical and econometric software. Spatiotemporal modeling represents one of the most recent developments in spatial econometric theory and the finite sample properties of the estimators that have been proposed are currently being tested in the literature. We provide a comparison between some estimators (a quasi-maximum likelihood, QML, estimator and some GMM-type estimators) for a fixed effects dynamic panel data model under certain conditions, by means of a Monte Carlo simulation analysis. We focus on different settings, which are characterized either by fully stable or quasi-unit root series. We also investigate the extent of the bias that is caused by a non-spatial estimation of a model when the data are characterized by different degrees of spatial dependence. Finally, we provide an empirical application of a QML estimator for a time-space dynamic model which includes a temporal, a spatial and a spatiotemporal lag of the dependent variable. This is done by choosing a relevant and prolific field of analysis, in which spatial econometrics has only found limited space so far, in order to explore the value-added of considering the spatial dimension of the data. In particular, we study the determinants of cropland value in Midwestern U.S.A. in the years 1971-2009, by taking the present value model (PVM) as the theoretical framework of analysis.

Forward implied volatility expansions in LSV models

In this work we address the problem of finding formulas for efficient and reliable analytical approximation for the calculation of forward implied volatility in LSV models, a problem which is reduced to the calculation of option prices as an expansion of the price of the same financial asset in a Black-Scholes dynamic. Our approach involves an expansion of the differential operator, whose solution represents the price in local stochastic volatility dynamics. Further calculations then allow to obtain an expansion of the implied volatility without the aid of any special function or expensive from the computational point of view, in order to obtain explicit formulas fast to calculate but also as accurate as possible.