Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

PERFORMANCE OF CONVENTIONAL PCRs BASED ON PRIMERS DIRECTED TO NUCLEAR AND MITOCHONDRIAL GENES FOR THE DETECTION AND IDENTIFICATION OF Leishmania spp.

In visceral leishmaniasis, the detection of the agent is of paramount importance to identify reservoirs of infection. Here, we evaluated the diagnostic attributes of PCRs based on primers directed to cytochrome-B (cytB), cytochrome-oxidase-subunit II (coxII), cytochrome-C (cytC), and the minicircle-kDNA. Although PCRs directed to cytB, coxII, cytC were able to detect different species of Leishmania, and the nucleotide sequence of their amplicons allowed the unequivocal differentiation of species, the analytical and diagnostic sensitivity of these PCRs were much lower than the analytical and diagnostic sensitivity of the kDNA-PCR. Among the 73 seropositive animals, the asymptomatic dogs had spleen and bone marrow samples collected and tested; only two animals were positive by PCRs based on cytB, coxII, and cytC, whereas 18 were positive by the kDNA-PCR. Considering the kDNA-PCR results, six dogs had positive spleen and bone marrow samples, eight dogs had positive bone marrow results but negative results in spleen samples and, in four dogs, the reverse situation occurred. We concluded that PCRs based on cytB, coxII, and cytC can be useful tools to identify Leishmania species when used in combination with automated sequencing. The discordance between the results of the kDNA-PCR in bone marrow and spleen samples may indicate that conventional PCR lacks sensitivity for the detection of infected dogs. Thus, primers based on the kDNA should be preferred for the screening of infected dogs.

Nominal and inflation-linked government bonds: An assessment of arbitrage opportunities in UK Gilt Market

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Preparation and characterization of microfiltration flat polymeric membranes for biomedical applications

Dissertation presented to Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade Nova de Lisboa for obtaining the master degree in Membrane Engineering

Comparison of the performance of polymerase chain reaction and pp65 antigenemia for the detection of human cytomegalovirus in immunosuppressed patients

INTRODUCTION: Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) is often reactive in latently infected immunosuppressed patients. Accordingly, HCMV remains one of the most common infections following solid organ and hemopoietic stem cell transplantations, resulting in significant morbidity, graft loss and occasional mortality. The early diagnosis of HCMV disease is important in immunosuppressed patients, since in these individuals, preemptive treatment is useful. The objective of this study was to compare the performance of the in-house qualitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and pp65 antigenemia to HCMV infection in immunosuppressed patients in the Hospital de Clínicas of Porto Alegre (HCPA). METHODS: A total of 216 blood samples collected between August 2006 and January 2007 were investigated. RESULTS: Among the samples analyzed, 81 (37.5%) were HCMV-positive by PCR, while 48 (22.2%) were positive for antigenemia. Considering antigenemia as the gold standard, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values and negative predictive values for PCR were 87.5%, 76.8%, 51.8% and 95.5% respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrated that qualitative PCR has high sensitivity and negative predictive value (NPV). Consequently PCR is especially indicated for the initial diagnosis of HCMV infection. In the case of preemptive treatment strategy, identification of patients at high-risk for HCMV disease is fundamental and PCR can be useful tool.

Performance of the Vitek 2 system software version 5.03 in the bacterial identification and antimicrobial susceptibility test: evaluation study of clinical and reference strains of Gram-positive cocci

Introduction. The genera Enterococcus, Staphylococcus and Streptococcus are recognized as important Gram-positive human pathogens. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of Vitek 2 in identifying Gram-positive cocci and their antimicrobial susceptibilities. Methods. One hundred four isolates were analyzed to determine the accuracy of the automated system for identifying the bacteria and their susceptibility to oxacillin and vancomycin. Results. The system correctly identified 77.9% and 97.1% of the isolates at the species and genus levels, respectively. Additionally, 81.8% of the Vitek 2 results agreed with the known antimicrobial susceptibility profiles. Conclusion. Vitek 2 correctly identified the commonly isolated strains; however, the limitations of the method may lead to ambiguous findings.

Production and characterization of electrospun composite fibers: confinement of thermosensitive microgels

Materials engineering focuses on the assembly of materials´ properties to design new products with the best performance. By using sub-micrometer size materials in the production of composites, it is possible to obtain objects with properties that none of their compounds show individually. Once three-dimensional materials can be easily customized to obtain desired properties, much interest has been paid to nanostructured poly-mers in order to build biocompatible devices. Over the past years, the thermosensitive microgels have become more common in the framework of bio-materials with potential applicability in therapy and/or diagnostics. In addition, high aspect ratio biopolymers fibers have been produced using the cost-effective method called electrospinning. Taking advantage of both microgels and electrospun fibers, surfaces with enhanced functionalities can be obtained and, therefore employed in a wide range of applications. This dissertation reports on the confinement of stimuli-responsive microgels through the colloidal electro-spinning process. The process mainly depends on the composition, properties and patterning of the precur-sor materials within the polymer jet. Microgels as well as the electrospun non-woven mats were investigated to correlate the starting materials with the final morphology of the composite fibers. PNIPAAm and PNIPAAm/Chitosan thermosensitive microgels with different compositions were obtained via surfactant free emulsion polymerization (SFEP) and characterized in terms of chemical structure, morphology, thermal sta-bility, swelling properties and thermosensitivity. Finally, the colloidal electrospinning method was carried out from spinning solutions composed of the stable microgel dispersions (up to a concentration of about 35 wt. % microgels) and a polymer solution of PEO/water/ethanol mixture acting as fiber template solution. The confinement of microgels was confirmed by Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). The electrospinning process was statistically analysed providing the optimum set of parameters aimed to minimize the fiber diameter, which give rise to electrospun nanofibers of PNIPAAm microgels/PEO with a mean fiber diameter of 63 ± 25 nm.

Evaluation of the performance of recycled textile fibres in the mechanical behaviour of a gypsum and cork composite material

Given the need for using more sustainable constructive solutions, an innovative composite material based on a combination of distinct industrial by-products is proposed aiming to reduce waste and energy consumption in the production of construction materials. The raw materials are thermal activated flue-gas desulphurization (FGD) gypsum, which acts as a binder, granulated cork as the aggregate and recycled textile fibres from used tyres intended to reinforce the material. This paper presents the results of the design of the composite mortar mixes, the characterization of the key physical properties (density, porosity and ultrasonic pulse velocity) and the mechanical validation based on uniaxial compressive tests and fracture energy tests. In the experimental campaign, the influence of the percentage of the raw materials in terms of gypsum mass, on the mechanical properties of the composite material was assessed. It was observed that the percentage of granulated cork decreases the compressive strength of the composite material but contributes to the increase in the compressive fracture energy. Besides, the recycled textile fibres play an important role in the mode I fracture process and in the fracture energy of the composite material, resulting in a considerable increase in the mode I fracture energy.

Structure and composition of the ground-herb community in a terra-firme Central Amazonian forest

The herb community of tropical forests is very little known, with few studies addressing its structure quantitatively. Even with this scarce body of information, it is clear that the ground herbs are a rich group, comprising 14 to 40% of the species found in total species counts in tropical forests. The present study had the objective of increasing the knowledge about the structure and composition of the ground-herb community and to compare the sites for which there are similar studies. The study was conducted in a tropical non-inundated and evergreen forest 90 km north of Manaus, AM. Ground herbs were surveyed in 22 transects of 40 m², distributed in five plots of 4 ha. The inventoried community was composed of 35 species, distributed in 24 genera and 18 families. Angiosperms were represented by 8 families and Pteridophytes by 10 families. Marantaceae (12 sp) and Cyperaceae (4 sp) were the richest families. Marantaceae and Poaceae were the families with greatest abundance and cover. Marantaceae, Poaceae, Heliconiaceae and Pteridophytes summed 96% of total herb cover, and therefore were responsible for almost all the cover of the community. The 10 most important species had 83.7% of the individuals. In general, the most abundant species were also the most frequent. Richness per transect varied from 7 to 19 species, and abundance varied from 30 to 114 individuals. The community structure was quite similar to 3 other sites in South America and one site in Asia.

Effects of forest structure components on the occurence, group size and density of groups of bare-face tamarin (Saguinus bicolor - primates: Callitrichinae) in Central Amazonia

This study analyzed the influence of forest structural components on the occurence, size and density of groups of Bare-face Tamarin (Saguinus bicolor) - the most threatened species in the Amazon - and produced the first map of distribution of groups in large-scale spatial within the area of continuous forest. Population censuses were conducted between November 2002 and July 2003, covering 6400 hectares in the Ducke Reserve, Manaus-AM, Brazil. Groups of S. bicolor were recorded 41 times accordingly distributed in the environments: plateau (20); slopes (12); and lowlands (09). The mean group size was 4.8 indiv./group, and ranged from 2 to 11 individuals. In the sites where the groups were recorded, and in an equivalent number of sites where no tamarins were found located at least 500 m from those where they had been recorded, we placed 50 m x 50 m plots to record the following forest structural components: abundance of trees; abundance of lianas; abundance of fruiting trees and lianas; abundance of snags; abundance of logs; percentage of canopy opening; leaf litter depth; and altitude. Bare-face Tamarin more often uses areas with lower abundance of forest logs, smaller canopy opening and with higher abundance of snags, areas in the forest with smaller canopy opening present higher density of S. bicolor groups. Apparently this species does not use the forest in a random way, and may select areas for its daily activities depending on the micro-environmental heterogeneity produced by the forest structural components.

Mechanical fatigue performance of PCL-chondroprogenitor constructs after cell culture under bioreactor mechanical stimulus

In tissue engineering of cartilage, polymeric scaffolds are implanted in the damaged tissue and subjected to repeated compression loading cycles. The possibility of failure due to mechanical fatigue has not been properly addressed in these scaffolds. Nevertheless, the macroporous scaffold is susceptible to failure after repeated loading-unloading cycles. This is related to inherent discontinuities in the material due to the micropore structure of the macro-pore walls that act as stress concentration points. In this work, chondrogenic precursor cells have been seeded in Poly-ε-caprolactone (PCL) scaffolds with fibrin and some were submitted to free swelling culture and others to cyclic loading in a bioreactor. After cell culture, all the samples were analyzed for fatigue behavior under repeated loading-unloading cycles. Moreover, some components of the extracellular matrix (ECM) were identified. No differences were observed between samples undergoing free swelling or bioreactor loading conditions, neither respect to matrix components nor to mechanical performance to fatigue. The ECM did not achieve the desired preponderance of collagen type II over collagen type I which is considered the main characteristic of hyaline cartilage ECM. However, prediction in PCL with ECM constructs was possible up to 600 cycles, an enhanced performance when compared to previous works. PCL after cell culture presents an improved fatigue resistance, despite the fact that the measured elastic modulus at the first cycle was similar to PCL with poly(vinyl alcohol) samples. This finding suggests that fatigue analysis in tissue engineering constructs can provide additional information missed with traditional mechanical measurements.

Influence of constituent yarn systems on the moisture management performance of terry fabrics

Objetivo do presente trabalho foi estudar a influência dos diferentes sistemas de fios (trama, teia de base e teia da argola) no desempenho dos tecidos de felpos, no que concerne às propriedades de absorção, capilaridade e libertação de humidade. Para este estudo usaram-se quatro tipos de combinações destes sistemas de fios, para a mesma estrutura de tecidos de felpo, na teia de base utilizou-se somente fios de Tencel®, na teia de argola e da trama varou-se a composição dos fios entre fios de algodão e de Tencel®. Os resultados obtidos demonstram que quando a utilização fios de Tencel® em qualquer dos sistemas (trama ou teia da argola) favorece a capacidade de difusão de líquidos na estrutura, a utilização de fios de algodão na teia de argola favorece a capacidade de absorção.

Learning joint representations for order and timing of perceptual-motor sequences: a dynamic neural field approach

Many of our everyday tasks require the control of the serial order and the timing of component actions. Using the dynamic neural field (DNF) framework, we address the learning of representations that support the performance of precisely time action sequences. In continuation of previous modeling work and robotics implementations, we ask specifically the question how feedback about executed actions might be used by the learning system to fine tune a joint memory representation of the ordinal and the temporal structure which has been initially acquired by observation. The perceptual memory is represented by a self-stabilized, multi-bump activity pattern of neurons encoding instances of a sensory event (e.g., color, position or pitch) which guides sequence learning. The strength of the population representation of each event is a function of elapsed time since sequence onset. We propose and test in simulations a simple learning rule that detects a mismatch between the expected and realized timing of events and adapts the activation strengths in order to compensate for the movement time needed to achieve the desired effect. The simulation results show that the effector-specific memory representation can be robustly recalled. We discuss the impact of the fast, activation-based learning that the DNF framework provides for robotics applications.

Structure and distribution of glandular trichomes in three species of Bignoniaceae

Glandular trichomes play a major role in the morphological characterization of the Bignoniaceae. Due to their great diversity of forms and functions, this study aimed to inventory the glandular trichomes present in the aerial vegetative axis of Amphilophium magnoliifolium, Martinella obovata and Stizophyllum riparium, analyze their structure and register the participation of ants in these plants. Fresh samples from the nodal region, petiole and from medium to apical regions of the leaflet blade were fixed and processed according to usual methods in light and scanning electron microscopies. The glandular trichomes found were: peltate, capitate, stipitate, and patelliform/cupular. Peltate trichomes are the most abundant ones and present the most uniform distribution. Patelliform/cupular trichomes occur at specific regions, such as prophylls, leaflet blade and nodal regions. Martinella obovata is the only species that presents capitate and stipitate trichomes, which are widely distributed along the entire aerial vegetative axis. Ants were found in all species, mainly at nodal regions. The occurrence of the capitate-type trichome is reported for the first time to the genus.

Upgrade of an industrial building: BIM model of the as-built situation and evaluation of modifications

Dissertação de mestrado integrado in Civil Engineering