US Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Conflict or Cooperation?

Most of the literature estimating DSGE models for monetary policy analysis ignores fiscal policy and assumes that monetary policy follows a simple rule. In this paper we allow both fiscal and monetary policy to be described by rules and/or optimal policy which are subject to switches over time. We find that US monetary and fiscal policy have often been in conflict, and that it is relatively rare that we observe the benign policy combination of an conservative monetary policy paired with a debt stabilizing fiscal policy. In a series of counterfactuals, a conservative central bank following a time-consistent fiscal policy leader would come close to mimicking the cooperative Ramsey policy. However, if policy makers cannot credibly commit to such a regime, monetary accommodation of the prevailing fiscal regime may actually be welfare improving.

Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Market Risk with Dynamic Asymmetric Copula

We investigate the dynamic and asymmetric dependence structure between equity portfolios from the US and UK. We demonstrate the statistical significance of dynamic asymmetric copula models in modelling and forecasting market risk. First, we construct “high-minus-low" equity portfolios sorted on beta, coskewness, and cokurtosis. We find substantial evidence of dynamic and asymmetric dependence between characteristic-sorted portfolios. Second, we consider a dynamic asymmetric copula model by combining the generalized hyperbolic skewed t copula with the generalized autoregressive score (GAS) model to capture both the multivariate non-normality and the dynamic and asymmetric dependence between equity portfolios. We demonstrate its usefulness by evaluating the forecasting performance of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall for the high-minus-low portfolios. From back-testing, e find consistent and robust evidence that our dynamic asymmetric copula model provides the most accurate forecasts, indicating the importance of incorporating the dynamic and asymmetric dependence structure in risk management.

Post-traumatic mutism in children: clinical characteristics, pattern of recovery and clinicopathological correlations.

Among the numerous clinical syndromes observed after severe traumatic head injury, post-traumatic mutism is a disorder rarely reported in adults and not studied in any detail in children. We report seven children between the ages of 3 1/2 and 14 years who sustained severe head injury and developed post-traumatic mutism. We aim to give a precise clinical characterization of this disorder, discuss differential diagnosis and correlations with brain imaging and suggest its probable neurological substrate. After a coma lasting from 5 to 25 days, the seven patients who suffered from post-traumatic mutism went through a period of total absence of verbal production lasting from 5 to 94 days, associated with the recovery of non-verbal communication skills and emotional vocalization. During the first days after the recovery of speech, all patients were able to produce correct small sentences with a hypophonic and monotonous voice, moderate dysarthria, word finding difficulties but no signs of aphasia, and preserved oral comprehension. The neurological signs in the acute phase (III nerve paresis in three of seven patients, signs of autonomic dysfunctions in five of seven patients), the results of the brain imaging and the experimental animal data all suggest the involvement of mesencephalic structures as playing a key role in the aetiology of post-traumatic mutism.

Severe traumatic brain injury in Switzerland - feasibility and first results of a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to study the incidence and outcome of severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) in Switzerland and to test the feasibility of a large cohort study with case identification in the first 24 hours and 6-month follow-up. METHODS: From January to June 2005, we consecutively enrolled and followed up all persons with severe TBI (Abbreviated Injury Score of the head region >3 and Glasgow Coma Scale <9) in the catchment areas of 3 Swiss medical centres with neurosurgical facilities. The primary outcome was the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOSE) after 6 months. Secondary outcomes included survival, Functional Independence Mea - sure (FIM), and health-related quality of life (SF-12) at defined time-points up to 6 months after injury. RESULTS: We recruited 101 participants from a source population of about 2.47 million (ie, about 33% of Swiss population). The incidence of severe TBI was 8.2 per 100,000 person-years. The overall case fatality was 70%: 41 of 101 persons (41%) died at the scene of the accident. 23 of 60 hospitalised participants (38%) died within 48 hours, and 31 (53%) within 6 months. In all hospitalised patients, the median GOSE was 1 (range 1-8) after 6 months, and was 6 (2-8) in 6-month survivors. The median total FIM score was 125 (range 18-126); median-SF-12 component mea - sures were 44 (25-55) for the physical scale and 52 (32-65) for the mental scale. CONCLUSIONS: Severe TBI was associated with high case fatality and considerable morbidity in survivors. We demonstrated the feasibility of a multicentre cohort study in Switzerland with the aim of identifying modifiable determinants of outcome and improving current trauma care.

Selección de péptidos sintéticos del Virus de la Hepatitis G (GBV-C/HGV) inhibidores del Péptido de Fusión HIV-I

El GB virus C (GBV-C) o virus de l'hepatitis G (HGV) es un virus format per una única cadena de RNA que pertany a la familia Flaviviridae. En els últims anys, s'han publicat nombrosos treballs en els quals s'associa la coinfecció del GBV-C i del virus de la immunodeficiència humana (VIH) amb una menor progressió de l'esmentada malaltia així com amb una major supervivència dels pacients una vegada que la SIDA s'ha desenvolupat. El mecanisme pel qual el virus GBV-C/HGV exerceix un “efecte protector” en els pacients amb VIH encara no està descrit. L’estudi de la interacció entre els virus GBVC/HGV i VIH podria donar lloc al desenvolupament de nous agents terapèutics per al tractament de la SIDA.Treballs recents mostren com la capacitat inhibitòria del virus del GBV-C/HGV és deguda a la seva glicoproteina estructural E2. S’ha vist que aquesta proteina seria capaç d’inhibir la primera fase de replicació de VIH, així com la unió i la fusió amb les membranes cel•lulars. Sobre la base d’aquests estudis, l’objectiu d’aquest treball ha estat seleccionar inhibidors del pèptid de fusió del VIH utilitzant pèptids sintètics de la proteina E2 del GBV-C/HGV. El treball realitzat ha consistit en estudiar, utilitzant assajos biofísics de leakage i de lipid mixing, la capacitat dels pèptids de la proteina estructural del virus del GBV-C/HGV per inhibir la interacció i el procés de desestabilització de membranes induïdes pel pèptid de fusió de la glicoproteina de l’embolcall, GP41, del VIH. Aquests assajos, com es descriu en treballs anteriors, han resultat útils per a la selecció i la identificació de compostos amb activitat específica anti-GP41. Es pot afirmar que efectivament els pèptids seleccionats de la proteina E2 del virus del GBV-C/HGV inhibeixen l’activitat del pèptid de fusió del VIH probablement com a consequència d’un canvi conformacional en aquest darrer.

Characteristic bimodal profiles of RNA polymerase II at thousands of active mammalian promoters.

BACKGROUND: In mammals, ChIP-seq studies of RNA polymerase II (PolII) occupancy have been performed to reveal how recruitment, initiation and pausing of PolII may control transcription rates, but the focus is rarely on obtaining finely resolved profiles that can portray the progression of PolII through sequential promoter states. RESULTS: Here, we analyze PolII binding profiles from high-coverage ChIP-seq on promoters of actively transcribed genes in mouse and humans. We show that the enrichment of PolII near transcription start sites exhibits a stereotypical bimodal structure, with one peak near active transcription start sites and a second peak 110 base pairs downstream from the first. Using an empirical model that reliably quantifies the spatial PolII signal, gene by gene, we show that the first PolII peak allows for refined positioning of transcription start sites, which is corroborated by mRNA sequencing. This bimodal signature is found both in mouse and humans. Analysis of the pausing-related factors NELF and DSIF suggests that the downstream peak reflects widespread pausing at the +1 nucleosome barrier. Several features of the bimodal pattern are correlated with sequence features such as CpG content and TATA boxes, as well as the histone mark H3K4me3. CONCLUSIONS: We thus show how high coverage DNA sequencing experiments can reveal as-yet unnoticed bimodal spatial features of PolII accumulation that are frequent at individual mammalian genes and reminiscent of transcription initiation and pausing. The initiation-pausing hypothesis is corroborated by evidence from run-on sequencing and immunoprecipitation in other cell types and species.

Structural prediction of peptides bound to MHC class I.

An ab initio structure prediction approach adapted to the peptide-major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I system is presented. Based on structure comparisons of a large set of peptide-MHC class I complexes, a molecular dynamics protocol is proposed using simulated annealing (SA) cycles to sample the conformational space of the peptide in its fixed MHC environment. A set of 14 peptide-human leukocyte antigen (HLA) A0201 and 27 peptide-non-HLA A0201 complexes for which X-ray structures are available is used to test the accuracy of the prediction method. For each complex, 1000 peptide conformers are obtained from the SA sampling. A graph theory clustering algorithm based on heavy atom root-mean-square deviation (RMSD) values is applied to the sampled conformers. The clusters are ranked using cluster size, mean effective or conformational free energies, with solvation free energies computed using Generalized Born MV 2 (GB-MV2) and Poisson-Boltzmann (PB) continuum models. The final conformation is chosen as the center of the best-ranked cluster. With conformational free energies, the overall prediction success is 83% using a 1.00 Angstroms crystal RMSD criterion for main-chain atoms, and 76% using a 1.50 Angstroms RMSD criterion for heavy atoms. The prediction success is even higher for the set of 14 peptide-HLA A0201 complexes: 100% of the peptides have main-chain RMSD values &lt; or =1.00 Angstroms and 93% of the peptides have heavy atom RMSD values &lt; or =1.50 Angstroms. This structure prediction method can be applied to complexes of natural or modified antigenic peptides in their MHC environment with the aim to perform rational structure-based optimizations of tumor vaccines.

Plasma pituitary hormone levels in severe trauma with or without head injury.

In order to evaluate the effect of head injury in severely traumatized patients on the response of ACTH, GH, PRL, and TSH plasma levels, 36 patients were prospectively studied over 5 consecutive days following injury. They were divided into three groups: Group I, severe isolated head injury (n = 14); Group II, multiple injury combined with severe head injury (n = 12); Group III, multiple injury without head injury (n = 10). No significant trend was observed during the 5 consecutive days. The following changes in plasma levels were observed, compared to normal reference value (median values): ACTH was normal in the three groups; PRL was elevated in Group II and normal in the other groups; GH was elevated in all groups; TSH was elevated in Group III and reduced in Groups I and II. Intergroup comparisons showed significantly lower plasma levels for PRL (p less than 0.05) and TSH (p less than 0.01) in Groups I and II, i.e., head-injured patients, compared to Group III, i.e., traumatized patients without head injury. A relationship was observed between the severity of head injury, as expressed by Glasgow Coma Score, intracranial pressure levels, outcome, and TSH and PRL levels.

Effects of gastric bypass and gastric banding on glucose kinetics and gut hormone release.

BACKGROUND: Bariatric surgery markedly improves glucose homeostasis in patients with type 2 diabetes even before any significant weight loss is achieved. Procedures that involve bypassing the proximal small bowel, such as Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGBP), are more efficient than gastric restriction procedures such as gastric banding (GB). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effects of RYGBP and GB on postprandial glucose kinetics and gastro-intestinal hormone secretion after an oral glucose load. METHODS AND PROCEDURES: This study was a cross-sectional comparison among non-diabetic, weight-stable women who had undergone RYGBP (n = 8) between 9 and 48 months earlier or GB (n = 6) from 25 to 85 months earlier, and weight- and age-matched control subjects (n = 8). The women were studied over 4 h following ingestion of an oral glucose load. Total glucose and meal glucose kinetics were assessed using glucose tracers and plasma insulin, and gut hormone concentrations were simultaneously monitored. RESULTS: Patients who had undergone RYGBP showed a a more rapid appearance of exogenous glucose in the systemic circulation and a shorter duration of postprandial hyperglycemia than patients who had undergone GB and C. The response in RYGBP patients was characterized by early and accentuated insulin response, enhanced postprandial levels of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) and polypeptide YY (PYY), and greater postprandial suppression of ghrelin. DISCUSSION: These findings indicate that RYGBP is associated with alterations in glucose kinetics and glucoregulatory hormone secretion. These alterations are probably secondary to the anatomic rearrangement of the foregut, given the fact that they are not observed after GB. Increased PYY and GLP-1 concentrations and enhanced ghrelin suppression are compatible with reduced food intake after RYGBP.

Are initial radiographic and clinical scales associated with subsequent intracranial pressure and brain oxygen levels after severe traumatic brain injury?

BACKGROUND: Prediction of clinical course and outcome after severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) is important. OBJECTIVE: To examine whether clinical scales (Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS], Injury Severity Score [ISS], and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II [APACHE II]) or radiographic scales based on admission computed tomography (Marshall and Rotterdam) were associated with intensive care unit (ICU) physiology (intracranial pressure [ICP], brain tissue oxygen tension [PbtO2]), and clinical outcome after severe TBI. METHODS: One hundred one patients (median age, 41.0 years; interquartile range [26-55]) with severe TBI who had ICP and PbtO2 monitoring were identified. The relationship between admission GCS, ISS, APACHE II, Marshall and Rotterdam scores and ICP, PbtO2, and outcome was examined by using mixed-effects models and logistic regression. RESULTS: Median (25%-75% interquartile range) admission GCS and APACHE II without GCS scores were 3.0 (3-7) and 11.0 (8-13), respectively. Marshall and Rotterdam scores were 3.0 (3-5) and 4.0 (4-5). Mean ICP and PbtO2 during the patients' ICU course were 15.5 ± 10.7 mm Hg and 29.9 ± 10.8 mm Hg, respectively. Three-month mortality was 37.6%. Admission GCS was not associated with mortality. APACHE II (P = .003), APACHE-non-GCS (P = .004), Marshall (P < .001), and Rotterdam scores (P < .001) were associated with mortality. No relationship between GCS, ISS, Marshall, or Rotterdam scores and subsequent ICP or PbtO2 was observed. The APACHE II score was inversely associated with median PbtO2 (P = .03) and minimum PbtO2 (P = .008) and had a stronger correlation with amount of time of reduced PbtO2. CONCLUSION: Following severe TBI, factors associated with outcome may not always predict a patient's ICU course and, in particular, intracranial physiology.

Effect of mannitol and hypertonic saline on cerebral oxygenation in patients with severe traumatic brain injury and refractory intracranial hypertension.

BACKGROUND: The impact of osmotic therapies on brain oxygen has not been extensively studied in humans. We examined the effects on brain tissue oxygen tension (PbtO(2)) of mannitol and hypertonic saline (HTS) in patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) and refractory intracranial hypertension. METHODS: 12 consecutive patients with severe TBI who underwent intracranial pressure (ICP) and PbtO(2) monitoring were studied. Patients were treated with mannitol (25%, 0.75 g/kg) for episodes of elevated ICP (>20 mm Hg) or HTS (7.5%, 250 ml) if ICP was not controlled with mannitol. PbtO(2), ICP, mean arterial pressure, cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP), central venous pressure and cardiac output were monitored continuously. RESULTS: 42 episodes of intracranial hypertension, treated with mannitol (n = 28 boluses) or HTS (n = 14 boluses), were analysed. HTS treatment was associated with an increase in PbtO(2) (from baseline 28.3 (13.8) mm Hg to 34.9 (18.2) mm Hg at 30 min, 37.0 (17.6) mm Hg at 60 min and 41.4 (17.7) mm Hg at 120 min; all p<0.01) while mannitol did not affect PbtO(2) (baseline 30.4 (11.4) vs 28.7 (13.5) vs 28.4 (10.6) vs 27.5 (9.9) mm Hg; all p>0.1). Compared with mannitol, HTS was associated with lower ICP and higher CPP and cardiac output. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with severe TBI and elevated ICP refractory to previous mannitol treatment, 7.5% hypertonic saline administered as second tier therapy is associated with a significant increase in brain oxygenation, and improved cerebral and systemic haemodynamics.

Impact of reduced cerebral perfusion pressure on outcome after severe traumatic brain injury is dependent on brain tissue oxygen pressure

INTRODUCTION. Reduced cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP) may worsen secondary damage and outcome after severe traumatic brain injury (TBI), however the optimal management of CPP is still debated. STUDY HYPOTHESIS: We hypothesized that the impact of CPP on outcome is related to brain tissue oxygen tension (PbtO2) level and that reduced CPP may worsen TBI prognosis when it is associated with brain hypoxia. DESIGN. Retrospective analysis of prospective database. METHODS. We analyzed 103 patients with severe TBI who underwent continuous PbtO2 and CPP monitoring for an average of 5 days. For each patient, duration of reduced CPP (\60 mm Hg) and brain hypoxia (PbtO2\15 mm Hg for[30 min [1]) was calculated with linear interpolation method and the relationship between CPP and PbtO2 was analyzed with Pearson's linear correlation coefficient. Outcome at 30 days was assessed with the Glasgow Outcome Score (GOS), dichotomized as good (GOS 4-5) versus poor (GOS 1-3). Multivariable associations with outcome were analyzed with stepwise forward logistic regression. RESULTS. Reduced CPP (n=790 episodes; mean duration 10.2 ± 12.3 h) was observed in 75 (74%) patients and was frequently associated with brain hypoxia (46/75; 61%). Episodes where reduced CPP were associated with normal brain oxygen did not differ significantly between patients with poor versus those with good outcome (8.2 ± 8.3 vs. 6.5 ± 9.7 h; P=0.35). In contrast, time where reduced CPP occurred simultaneously with brain hypoxia was longer in patients with poor than in those with good outcome (3.3±7.4 vs. 0.8±2.3 h; P=0.02). Outcome was significantly worse in patients who had both reduced CPP and brain hypoxia (61% had GOS 1-3 vs. 17% in those with reduced CPP but no brain hypoxia; P\0.01). Patients in whom a positive CPP-PbtO2 correlation (r[0.3) was found also were more likely to have poor outcome (69 vs. 31% in patients with no CPP-PbtO2 correlation; P\0.01). Brain hypoxia was an independent risk factor of poor prognosis (odds ratio for favorable outcome of 0.89 [95% CI 0.79-1.00] per hour spent with a PbtO2\15 mm Hg; P=0.05, adjusted for CPP, age, GCS, Marshall CT and APACHE II). CONCLUSIONS. Low CPP may significantly worsen outcome after severe TBI when it is associated with brain tissue hypoxia. PbtO2-targeted management of CPP may optimize TBI therapy and improve outcome of head-injured patients.

The fine-scale architecture of structural variants in 17 mouse genomes.

BACKGROUND: Accurate catalogs of structural variants (SVs) in mammalian genomes are necessary to elucidate the potential mechanisms that drive SV formation and to assess their functional impact. Next generation sequencing methods for SV detection are an advance on array-based methods, but are almost exclusively limited to four basic types: deletions, insertions, inversions and copy number gains. RESULTS: By visual inspection of 100 Mbp of genome to which next generation sequence data from 17 inbred mouse strains had been aligned, we identify and interpret 21 paired-end mapping patterns, which we validate by PCR. These paired-end mapping patterns reveal a greater diversity and complexity in SVs than previously recognized. In addition, Sanger-based sequence analysis of 4,176 breakpoints at 261 SV sites reveal additional complexity at approximately a quarter of structural variants analyzed. We find micro-deletions and micro-insertions at SV breakpoints, ranging from 1 to 107 bp, and SNPs that extend breakpoint micro-homology and may catalyze SV formation. CONCLUSIONS: An integrative approach using experimental analyses to train computational SV calling is essential for the accurate resolution of the architecture of SVs. We find considerable complexity in SV formation; about a quarter of SVs in the mouse are composed of a complex mixture of deletion, insertion, inversion and copy number gain. Computational methods can be adapted to identify most paired-end mapping patterns.

A Study on Health Behaviours and Young People

Numerous reports have documented the health status of young people, concluding that the main threats to their health are predominantly the health risk behaviours and choices they make. Focussing on four of these, alcohol consumption, tobacco smoking, illicit drug use and sexual activity, this study seeks to assess their levels among a group of young people in Galway City with the aim of helping with the development of Health Education in these areas. In order to develop appropriate interventions, it is first of all necessary that accurate information on the extent of the problem, if any, be available. In 1989, studies on risk taking were carried out in the Muirhouse and Easterhouse areas of Glasgow and Edinburgh in Scotland. These areas were seen as underprivileged and had high and low rates of HIV infection respectively. In 1993, a similar study was carried out in the Westside area of Galway, an area which is also seen as under-privileged with high rates of unemployment. In 1996, a follow-up to the 1993 survey was carried out. This study also attempted to determine if there was a relationship between the behaviours reported and socio-economic class. This study is a follow-up to the previous two, with the addition that it attempts to investigate whether any relationship exists between the provision of health education in schools and subsequent health behaviour patternsThis resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.