Impact of weather and climate on the incidence of acute coronary syndromes

BACKGROUND: First investigations of the interactions between weather and the incidence of acute myocardial infarctions date back to 1938. The early observation of a higher incidence of myocardial infarctions in the cold season could be confirmed in very different geographical regions and cohorts. While the influence of seasonal variations on the incidence of myocardial infarctions has been extensively documented, the impact of individual meteorological parameters on the disease has so far not been investigated systematically. Hence the present study intended to assess the impact of the essential variables of weather and climate on the incidence of myocardial infarctions. METHODS: The daily incidence of myocardial infarctions was calculated from a national hospitalization survey. The hourly weather and climate data were provided by the database of the national weather forecast. The epidemiological and meteorological data were correlated by multivariate analysis based on a generalized linear model assuming a log-link-function and a Poisson distribution. RESULTS: High ambient pressure, high pressure gradients, and heavy wind activity were associated with an increase in the incidence of the totally 6560 hospitalizations for myocardial infarction irrespective of the geographical region. Snow- and rainfall had inconsistent effects. Temperature, Foehn, and lightning showed no statistically significant impact. CONCLUSIONS: Ambient pressure, pressure gradient, and wind activity had a statistical impact on the incidence of myocardial infarctions in Switzerland from 1990 to 1994. To establish a cause-and-effect relationship more data are needed on the interaction between the pathophysiological mechanisms of the acute coronary syndrome and weather and climate variables.

The influence of a continuous rate infusion of dexmedetomidine on the nociceptive withdrawal reflex and temporal summation during isoflurane anaesthesia in dogs

Objective To examine the influence of a low dose dexmedetomidine infusion on the nociceptive withdrawal reflex and temporal summation in dogs during isoflurane anaesthesia. Study design Prospective experimental blinded cross-over study. Animals Eight healthy mixed breed dogs, body weight Mean +/- SD 26.5 +/- 8.4 kg and age 25 +/- 16 months. Methods Anaesthesia was induced with propofol and maintained with isoflurane (Fe'ISO 1.3%) delivered in oxygen and air. After stabilization, baseline recordings (time 0) were obtained, then a dexmedetomidine bolus (1 mug kg(-1) IV) followed by a continuous rate infusion (1 mug kg(-1) hour(-1) ) or saline placebo were administered. At times 10, 30 and 60 minutes after the initial bolus, electrical stimulations of increasing intensity were applied over the lateral plantar digital nerve, and administered both as single and as repeated stimuli. The resulting reflex responses were recorded using electromyography. Data were analysed using a multivariable linear regression model and a Kruskal Wallis test for single stimulation data, and repeated measures anova and paired t-test for repeated stimulation data. Results The AUC for the stimulus-response curves after single stimulation were similar for both treatments at time 0. At times 10, 30 and 60 the AUCs for the stimulus-response curves were significantly lower with dexmedetomidine treatment than with placebo. Temporal summation was evident in both treatments at times 0, 10, 30 and 60 starting from a stimulation intensity of 10 mA. The magnitude of temporal summation was smaller in dexmedetomidine than in placebo treated dogs at time 10, 30 and 60, but not at time 0. Conclusions During isoflurane anaesthesia, low dose dexmedetomidine suppresses the nociceptive reflex responses after single and repeated electrical stimulation. Clinical relevance This experimental study confirms previous reports on its peri-operative efficacy under clinical conditions, and further indicates that dexmedetomidine might reduce the risk of post-operative chronic pain development.

CD4 count slope and mortality in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: multicohort analysis from South Africa

BACKGROUND In many resource-limited settings monitoring of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is based on the current CD4 count, with limited access to HIV RNA tests or laboratory diagnostics. We examined whether the CD4 count slope over 6 months could provide additional prognostic information. METHODS We analyzed data from a large multicohort study in South Africa, where HIV RNA is routinely monitored. Adult HIV-positive patients initiating cART between 2003 and 2010 were included. Mortality was analyzed in Cox models; CD4 count slope by HIV RNA level was assessed using linear mixed models. RESULTS About 44,829 patients (median age: 35 years, 58% female, median CD4 count at cART initiation: 116 cells/mm) were followed up for a median of 1.9 years, with 3706 deaths. Mean CD4 count slopes per week ranged from 1.4 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2 to 1.6] cells per cubic millimeter when HIV RNA was <400 copies per milliliter to -0.32 (95% CI: -0.47 to -0.18) cells per cubic millimeter with >100,000 copies per milliliter. The association of CD4 slope with mortality depended on current CD4 count: the adjusted hazard ratio (aHRs) comparing a >25% increase over 6 months with a >25% decrease was 0.68 (95% CI: 0.58 to 0.79) at <100 cells per cubic millimeter but 1.11 (95% CI: 0.78 to 1.58) at 201-350 cells per cubic millimeter. In contrast, the aHR for current CD4 count, comparing >350 with <100 cells per cubic millimeter, was 0.10 (95% CI: 0.05 to 0.20). CONCLUSIONS Absolute CD4 count remains a strong risk for mortality with a stable effect size over the first 4 years of cART. However, CD4 count slope and HIV RNA provide independently added to the model.

Using state variables to model the response of tumour cells to radiation and heat: a novel multi-hit-repair approach

In order to overcome the limitations of the linear-quadratic model and include synergistic effects of heat and radiation, a novel radiobiological model is proposed. The model is based on a chain of cell populations which are characterized by the number of radiation induced damages (hits). Cells can shift downward along the chain by collecting hits and upward by a repair process. The repair process is governed by a repair probability which depends upon state variables used for a simplistic description of the impact of heat and radiation upon repair proteins. Based on the parameters used, populations up to 4-5 hits are relevant for the calculation of the survival. The model describes intuitively the mathematical behaviour of apoptotic and nonapoptotic cell death. Linear-quadratic-linear behaviour of the logarithmic cell survival, fractionation, and (with one exception) the dose rate dependencies are described correctly. The model covers the time gap dependence of the synergistic cell killing due to combined application of heat and radiation, but further validation of the proposed approach based on experimental data is needed. However, the model offers a work bench for testing different biological concepts of damage induction, repair, and statistical approaches for calculating the variables of state.

The Effect Of Misleading Prior Information On The Subjective Visual Vertical

When tilted sideways participants misperceive the visual vertical assessed by means of a luminous line in otherwise complete dark- ness. A recent modeling approach (De Vrijer et al., 2009) claimed that these typical patterns of errors (known as A- and E-effects) could be explained by as- suming that participants behave in a Bayes optimal manner. In this study, we experimentally manipulate participants’ prior information about body-in-space orientation and measure the effect of this manipulation on the subjective visual vertical (SVV). Specifically, we explore the effects of veridical and misleading instructions about body tilt orientations on the SVV. We used a psychophys- ical 2AFC SVV task at roll tilt angles of 0 degrees, 16 degrees and 4 degrees CW and CCW. Participants were tilted to 4 degrees under different instruction conditions: in one condition, participants received veridical instructions as to their tilt angle, whereas in another condition, participants received the mis- leading instruction that their body position was perfectly upright. Our results indicate systematic differences between the instruction conditions at 4 degrees CW and CCW. Participants did not simply use an ego-centric reference frame in the misleading condition; instead, participants’ estimates of the SVV seem to lie between their head’s Z-axis and the estimate of the SVV as measured in the veridical condition. All participants displayed A-effects at roll tilt an- gles of 16 degrees CW and CCW. We discuss our results in the context of the Bayesian model by De Vrijer et al. (2009), and claim that this pattern of re- sults is consistent with a manipulation of precision of a prior distribution over body-in-space orientations. Furthermore, we introduce a Bayesian Generalized Linear Model for estimating parameters of participants’ psychometric function, which allows us to jointly estimate group level and individual level parameters under all experimental conditions simultaneously, rather than relying on the traditional two-step approach to obtaining group level parameter estimates.

Higher emotional distress in female partners of cancer patients: prevalence and patient-partner interdependencies in a 3-year cohort

OBJECTIVE: Assessment and treatment of psychological distress in cancer patients was recognized as a major challenge. The role of spouses, caregivers, and significant others became of salient importance not only because of their supportive functions but also in respect to their own burden. The purpose of this study was to assess the amount of distress in a mixed sample of cancer patients and their partners and to explore the dyadic interdependence. METHODS: An initial sample of 154 dyads was recruited, and distress questionnaires (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, Symptom Checklist 9-Item Short Version and 12-Item Short Form Health Survey) were assessed over four time points. Linear mixed models and actor-partner interdependence models were applied. RESULTS: A significant proportion of patients and their partners (up to 40%) reported high levels of anxiety, depression, psychological distress, and low quality of life over the course of the investigation. Mixed model analyses revealed that higher risks for clinical relevant anxiety and depression in couples exist for female patients and especially for female partners. Although psychological strain decreased over time, the risk for elevated distress in female partners remained. Modeling patient-partner interdependence over time stratified by patients' gender revealed specific effects: a moderate correlation between distress in patients and partners, and a transmission of distress from male patients to their female partners. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide empirical support for gender-specific transmission of distress in dyads coping with cancer. This should be considered as an important starting point for planning systemic psycho-oncological interventions and conceptualizing further research.

Estimating the prevalence of comorbid conditions and their effect on health care costs in patients with diabetes mellitus in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND Estimating the prevalence of comorbidities and their associated costs in patients with diabetes is fundamental to optimizing health care management. This study assesses the prevalence and health care costs of comorbid conditions among patients with diabetes compared with patients without diabetes. Distinguishing potentially diabetes- and nondiabetes-related comorbidities in patients with diabetes, we also determined the most frequent chronic conditions and estimated their effect on costs across different health care settings in Switzerland. METHODS Using health care claims data from 2011, we calculated the prevalence and average health care costs of comorbidities among patients with and without diabetes in inpatient and outpatient settings. Patients with diabetes and comorbid conditions were identified using pharmacy-based cost groups. Generalized linear models with negative binomial distribution were used to analyze the effect of comorbidities on health care costs. RESULTS A total of 932,612 persons, including 50,751 patients with diabetes, were enrolled. The most frequent potentially diabetes- and nondiabetes-related comorbidities in patients older than 64 years were cardiovascular diseases (91%), rheumatologic conditions (55%), and hyperlipidemia (53%). The mean total health care costs for diabetes patients varied substantially by comorbidity status (US$3,203-$14,223). Patients with diabetes and more than two comorbidities incurred US$10,584 higher total costs than patients without comorbidity. Costs were significantly higher in patients with diabetes and comorbid cardiovascular disease (US$4,788), hyperlipidemia (US$2,163), hyperacidity disorders (US$8,753), and pain (US$8,324) compared with in those without the given disease. CONCLUSION Comorbidities in patients with diabetes are highly prevalent and have substantial consequences for medical expenditures. Interestingly, hyperacidity disorders and pain were the most costly conditions. Our findings highlight the importance of developing strategies that meet the needs of patients with diabetes and comorbidities. Integrated diabetes care such as used in the Chronic Care Model may represent a useful strategy.

Empirical Analysis of Credit Risk Regime Switching and Temporal Conditional Default Correlation in Credit Default Swap Valuation: The Market liquidity effect

In this paper, we extend the debate concerning Credit Default Swap valuation to include time varying correlation and co-variances. Traditional multi-variate techniques treat the correlations between covariates as constant over time; however, this view is not supported by the data. Secondly, since financial data does not follow a normal distribution because of its heavy tails, modeling the data using a Generalized Linear model (GLM) incorporating copulas emerge as a more robust technique over traditional approaches. This paper also includes an empirical analysis of the regime switching dynamics of credit risk in the presence of liquidity by following the general practice of assuming that credit and market risk follow a Markov process. The study was based on Credit Default Swap data obtained from Bloomberg that spanned the period January 1st 2004 to August 08th 2006. The empirical examination of the regime switching tendencies provided quantitative support to the anecdotal view that liquidity decreases as credit quality deteriorates. The analysis also examined the joint probability distribution of the credit risk determinants across credit quality through the use of a copula function which disaggregates the behavior embedded in the marginal gamma distributions, so as to isolate the level of dependence which is captured in the copula function. The results suggest that the time varying joint correlation matrix performed far superior as compared to the constant correlation matrix; the centerpiece of linear regression models.

Bayesian joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data

The joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data is a new approach to many applications such as HIV, cancer vaccine trials and quality of life studies. There are recent developments of the methodologies with respect to each of the components of the joint model as well as statistical processes that link them together. Among these, second order polynomial random effect models and linear mixed effects models are the most commonly used for the longitudinal trajectory function. In this study, we first relax the parametric constraints for polynomial random effect models by using Dirichlet process priors, then three longitudinal markers rather than only one marker are considered in one joint model. Second, we use a linear mixed effect model for the longitudinal process in a joint model analyzing the three markers. In this research these methods were applied to the Primary Biliary Cirrhosis sequential data, which were collected from a clinical trial of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) of the liver. This trial was conducted between 1974 and 1984 at the Mayo Clinic. The effects of three longitudinal markers (1) Total Serum Bilirubin, (2) Serum Albumin and (3) Serum Glutamic-Oxaloacetic transaminase (SGOT) on patients' survival were investigated. Proportion of treatment effect will also be studied using the proposed joint modeling approaches. ^ Based on the results, we conclude that the proposed modeling approaches yield better fit to the data and give less biased parameter estimates for these trajectory functions than previous methods. Model fit is also improved after considering three longitudinal markers instead of one marker only. The results from analysis of proportion of treatment effects from these joint models indicate same conclusion as that from the final model of Fleming and Harrington (1991), which is Bilirubin and Albumin together has stronger impact in predicting patients' survival and as a surrogate endpoints for treatment. ^

The impact of a child's unexpected hospitalization upon Taiwanese parents' situational anxiety

Background. The parents of a sick child likely experience situational anxiety due to their young child being unexpectedly hospitalized. The emotional upheaval may be great enough that their anxiety inhibits them in providing positive support to their hospitalized child. Because anxiety affects psychological distress as well as behavioral distress, identifying parental distress helps parents improving their coping mechanisms. ^ Purpose. The study compared situational anxiety levels between Taiwanese fathers and mothers and focused on differences between parental anxiety levels at the beginning of the child's unplanned hospitalization and at time of discharge. The study also identified factors related to the parents' distress and use of coping mechanisms. ^ Methods. A descriptive, comparative research design was used to determine the difference between the anxiety levels of 62 Taiwanese father-mother dyads during the situational crisis of their child's unexpected hospitalization. The Mandarin version (M) of Visual Analog Scale (VAS-M), State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI-M), and the Index of Parent Participation/Hospitalized Child (IPP/HC-M) were used to differentiate maternal and paternal anxiety levels and identify factors related to the parents' distress. Questionnaires were completed by parents within 24-36 hours of the child's hospital admission and within 24 hours prior to discharge. A paired t-test, two sample t-test, and linear mixed regression model were used to test and support the study hypothesis. ^ Results. The findings reveal that the mothers' anxiety levels did not significantly differ from the fathers' anxiety level when their child had a sudden admission to the hospital. In particular, parental state anxiety levels did not decrease during the child's hospital stay and subsequent discharge. Moreover, anxiety levels did not differ between parents regardless of whether the child's disease was acute or chronic. The most effective factor related to parental situational anxiety was parental perception of the severity of the child's illness. ^ Conclusions. Parental anxiety was found to be significantly related to changes in their perception of the severity of their child's illness. However, the study was not able to illustrate how parental involvement in the child's hospital care was related to parental perception of the severity of their child's illness. Future studies, using a qualitative approach to gamer more information as to what variables influence parental anxiety during a situational crisis, may provide a richer database from which to modify key variables as well as the instruments used to improve the quality of the data obtained. ^

Identfying predictors of St. Louis encephalitis activity in Houston Texas

Generalized linear Poisson and logistic regression models were utilized to examine the relationship between temperature and precipitation and cases of Saint Louis encephalitis virus spread in the Houston metropolitan area. The models were investigated with and without repeated measures, with a first order autoregressive (AR1) correlation structure used for the repeated measures model. The two types of Poisson regression models, with and without correlation structure, showed that a unit increase in temperature measured in degrees Fahrenheit increases the occurrence of the virus 1.7 times and a unit increase in precipitation measured in inches increases the occurrence of the virus 1.5 times. Logistic regression did not show these covariates to be significant as predictors for encephalitis activity in Houston for either correlation structure. This discrepancy for the logistic model could be attributed to the small data set.^ Keywords: Saint Louis Encephalitis; Generalized Linear Model; Poisson; Logistic; First Order Autoregressive; Temperature; Precipitation. ^

Spatial distribution of orofacial cleft birth defects and uranium-radium concentrations in tap water in Atascosa, Bee, Brooks, Calhoun, Duval, Goliad, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Jim Wells, Karnes, Kleberg, Live Oak, McMullen, Nueces, San Patricio, Refugio, Starr, Victoria, Webb, and Zavala Counties, Texas

Background Past and recent evidence shows that radionuclides in drinking water may be a public health concern. Developmental thresholds for birth defects with respect to chronic low level domestic radiation exposures, such as through drinking water, have not been definitely recognized, and there is a strong need to address this deficiency in information. In this study we examined the geographic distribution of orofacial cleft birth defects in and around uranium mining district Counties in South Texas (Atascosa, Bee, Brooks, Calhoun, Duval, Goliad, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Jim Wells, Karnes, Kleberg, Live Oak, McMullen, Nueces, San Patricio, Refugio, Starr, Victoria, Webb, and Zavala), from 1999 to 2007. The probable association of cleft birth defect rates by ZIP codes classified according to uranium and radium concentrations in drinking water supplies was evaluated. Similar associations between orofacial cleft birth defects and radium/radon in drinking water were reported earlier by Cech and co-investigators in another of the Gulf Coast region (Harris County, Texas).50, 55 Since substantial uranium mining activity existed and still exists in South Texas, contamination of drinking water sources with radiation and its relation to birth defects is a ground for concern. ^ Methods Residential addresses of orofacial cleft birth defect cases, as well as live births within the twenty Counties during 1999-2007 were geocoded and mapped. Prevalence rates were calculated by ZIP codes and were mapped accordingly. Locations of drinking water supplies were also geocoded and mapped. ZIP codes were stratified as having high combined uranium (≥30μg/L) vs. low combined uranium (<30μg/L). Likewise, ZIP codes having the uranium isotope, Ra-226 in drinking water, were also stratified as having elevated radium (≥3 pCi/L) vs. low radium (<3 pCi/L). A linear regression was performed using STATA® generalized linear model (GLM) program to evaluate the probable association between cleft birth defect rates by ZIP codes and concentration of uranium and radium via domestic water supply. These rates were further adjusted for potentially confounding variables such as maternal age, education, occupation, and ethnicity. ^ Results This study showed higher rates of cleft births in ZIP codes classified as having high combined uranium versus ZIP codes having low combined uranium. The model was further improved by adding radium stratified as explained above. Adjustment for maternal age and ethnicity did not substantially affect the statistical significance of uranium or radium concentrations in household water supplies. ^ Conclusion Although this study lacks individual exposure levels, the findings suggest a significant association between elevated uranium and radium concentrations in tap water and high orofacial birth defect rates by ZIP codes. Future case-control studies that can measure individual exposure levels and adjust for contending risk factors could result in a better understanding of the exposure-disease association.^

Health outcomes, quality improvement and cost-effectiveness of the Community Diabetes Education (CoDE) program: Results of a randomized controlled trial

The objectives of this dissertation were to evaluate health outcomes, quality improvement measures, and the long-term cost-effectiveness and impact on diabetes-related microvascular and macrovascular complications of a community health worker-led culturally tailored diabetes education and management intervention provided to uninsured Mexican Americans in an urban faith-based clinic. A prospective, randomized controlled repeated measures design was employed to compare the intervention effects between: (1) an intervention group (n=90) that participated in the Community Diabetes Education (CoDE) program along with usual medical care; and (2) a wait-listed comparison group (n=90) that received only usual medical care. Changes in hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and secondary outcomes (lipid status, blood pressure and body mass index) were assessed using linear mixed-models and an intention-to-treat approach. The CoDE group experienced greater reduction in HbA1c (-1.6%, p<.001) than the control group (-.9%, p<.001) over the 12 month study period. After adjusting for group-by-time interaction, antidiabetic medication use at baseline, changes made to the antidiabetic regime over the study period, duration of diabetes and baseline HbA1c, a statistically significant intervention effect on HbA1c (-.7%, p=.02) was observed for CoDE participants. Process and outcome quality measures were evaluated using multiple mixed-effects logistic regression models. Assessment of quality indicators revealed that the CoDE intervention group was significantly more likely to have received a dilated retinal examination than the control group, and 53% achieved a HbA1c below 7% compared with 38% of control group subjects. Long-term cost-effectiveness and impact on diabetes-related health outcomes were estimated through simulation modeling using the rigorously validated Archimedes Model. Over a 20 year time horizon, CoDE participants were forecasted to have less proliferative diabetic retinopathy, fewer foot ulcers, and reduced numbers of foot amputations than control group subjects who received usual medical care. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $355 per quality-adjusted life-year gained was estimated for CoDE intervention participants over the same time period. The results from the three areas of program evaluation: impact on short-term health outcomes, quantification of improvement in quality of diabetes care, and projection of long-term cost-effectiveness and impact on diabetes-related health outcomes provide evidence that a community health worker can be a valuable resource to reduce diabetes disparities for uninsured Mexican Americans. This evidence supports formal integration of community health workers as members of the diabetes care team.^

Modelos de demanda potencial de viajeros en redes de transporte público : aplicaciones en el Metro de Madrid

Este trabajo propone una metodología basada en Sistemas de Información Geográfica para estimar la demanda de viajes en estaciones de redes de transporte público, tomando como ejemplo la red de metro de Madrid. Primero se emplea una serie de datos descriptivos para caracterizar la red, clasificar las estaciones y obtener una tipología de las mismas. Luego, con el objetivo de explicar y predecir los viajes (entradas a la red) se generan dos modelos: uno sencillo a partir de las tasas de penetración de uso del metro en función de la distancia (distance decay), y otro más complejo basado en un modelo de regresión lineal múltiple (MRLM) que incorpora variables relativas a la estación y su entorno (densidad, mezcla de usos, diseño urbano, presencia de modos competidores). Su aplicación muestra resultados alentadores, y se plantea como una alternativa a los clásicos modelos de cuatro etapas, más complejos y con un mayor coste económico.