EXPLORATION OF THE MTSAT2 SATELLITE CAPABILITIES FOR REAL TIME DETECTION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF VOLCANIC EMISSIONS

In this report, we attempt to define the capabilities of the infrared satellite remote sensor, Multifunctional Transport Satellite-2 (MTSAT-2) (i.e. a geosynchronous instrument), in characterizing volcanic eruptive behavior in the highly active region of Indonesia. Sulfur dioxide data from NASA's Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) (i.e. a polar orbiting instrument) are presented here for validation of the processes interpreted using the thermal infrared datasets. Data provided from two case studies are analyzed specifically for eruptive products producing large thermal anomalies (i.e. lava flows, lava domes, etc.), volcanic ash and SO2 clouds; three distinctly characteristic and abundant volcanic emissions. Two primary methods used for detection of heat signatures are used and compared in this report including, single-channel thermal radiance (4-µm) and the normalized thermal index (NTI) algorithm. For automated purposes, fixed thresholds must be determined for these methods. A base minimum detection limit (MDL) for single-channel thermal radiance of 2.30E+05 Wm- 2sr-1m-1 and -0.925 for NTI generate false alarm rates of 35.78% and 34.16%, respectively. A spatial comparison method, developed here specifically for use in Indonesia and used as a second parameter for detection, is implemented to address the high false alarm rate. For the single-channel thermal radiance method, the utilization of the spatial comparison method eliminated 100% of the false alarms while maintaining every true anomaly. The NTI algorithm showed similar results with only 2 false alarms remaining. No definitive difference is observed between the two thermal detection methods for automated use; however, the single-channel thermal radiance method coupled with the SO2 mass abundance data can be used to interpret volcanic processes including the identification of lava dome activity at Sinabung as well as the mechanism for the dome emplacement (i.e. endogenous or exogenous). Only one technique, the brightness temperature difference (BTD) method, is used for the detection of ash. Trends of ash area, water/ice area, and their respective concentrations yield interpretations of increased ice formation, aggregation, and sedimentation processes that only a high-temporal resolution instrument like the MTSAT-2 can analyze. A conceptual model of a secondary zone of aggregation occurring in the migrating Kelut ash cloud, which decreases the distal fine-ash component and hazards to flight paths, is presented in this report. Unfortunately, SO2 data was unable to definitively reinforce the concept of a secondary zone of aggregation due to the lack of a sufficient temporal resolution. However, a detailed study of the Kelut SO2 cloud is used to determine that there was no climatic impacts generated from this eruption due to the atmospheric residence times and e-folding rate of ~14 days for the SO2. This report applies the complementary assets offered by utilizing a high-temporal and a high-spatial resolution satellite, and it demonstrates that these two instruments can provide unparalleled observations of dynamic volcanic processes.

Cold-Start Emissions testing of Snowmobiles Using Ethanol and Gasoline

Increasing prices for fuel with depletion and instability in foreign oil imports has driven the importance for using alternative and renewable fuels. The alternative fuels such as ethanol, methanol, butyl alcohol, and natural gas are of interest to be used to relieve some of the dependence on oil for transportation. The renewable fuel, ethanol which is made from the sugars of corn, has been used widely in fuel for vehicles in the United States because of its unique qualities. As with any renewable fuel, ethanol has many advantages but also has disadvantages. Cold startability of engines is one area of concern when using ethanol blended fuel. This research was focused on the cold startability of snowmobiles at ambient temperatures of 20 °F, 0 °F, and -20 °F. The tests were performed in a modified 48 foot refrigerated trailer which was retrofitted for the purpose of cold-start tests. Pure gasoline (E0) was used as a baseline test. A splash blended ethanol and gasoline mixture (E15, 15% ethanol and 85% gasoline by volume) was then tested and compared to the E0 fuel. Four different types of snowmobiles were used for the testing including a Yamaha FX Nytro RTX four-stroke, Ski-doo MX Z TNT 600 E-TEC direct injected two stroke, Polaris 800 Rush semi-direct injected two-stroke, and an Arctic Cat F570 carbureted two-stroke. All of the snowmobiles operate on open loop systems which means there was no compensation for the change in fuel properties. Emissions were sampled using a Sensors Inc. Semtech DS five gas emissions analyzer and engine data was recoded using AIM Racing Data Power EVO3 Pro and EVO4 systems. The recorded raw exhaust emissions included carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), total hydrocarbons (THC), and oxygen (O2). To help explain the trends in the emissions data, engine parameters were also recorded. The EVO equipment was installed on each vehicle to record the following parameters: engine speed, exhaust gas temperature, head temperature, coolant temperature, and test cell air temperature. At least three consistent tests to ensure repeatability were taken at each fuel and temperature combination so a total of 18 valid tests were taken on each snowmobile. The snowmobiles were run at operating temperature to clear any excess fuel in the engine crankcase before each cold-start test. The trends from switching from E0 to E15 were different for each snowmobile as they all employ different engine technologies. The Yamaha snowmobile (four-stroke EFI) achieved higher levels of CO2 with lower CO and THC emissions on E15. Engine speeds were fairly consistent between fuels but the average engine speeds were increased as the temperatures decreased. The average exhaust gas temperature increased from 1.3-1.8% for the E15 compared to E0 due to enleanment. For the Ski-doo snowmobile (direct injected two-stroke) only slight differences were noted when switching from E0 to E15. This could possibly be due to the lean of stoichiometric operation of the engine at idle. The CO2 emissions decreased slightly at 20 °F and 0 °F for E15 fuel with a small difference at -20 °F. Almost no change in CO or THC emissions was noted for all temperatures. The only significant difference in the engine data observed was the exhaust gas temperature which decreased with E15. The Polaris snowmobile (semi-direct injected two-stroke) had similar raw exhaust emissions for each of the two fuels. This was probably due to changing a resistor when using E15 which changed the fuel map for an ethanol mixture (E10 vs. E0). This snowmobile operates at a rich condition which caused the engine to emit higher values of CO than CO2 along with exceeding the THC analyzer range at idle. The engine parameters and emissions did not increase or decrease significantly with decreasing temperature. The average idle engine speed did increase as the ambient temperature decreased. The Arctic Cat snowmobile (carbureted two-stroke) was equipped with a choke lever to assist cold-starts. The choke was operated in the same manor for both fuels. Lower levels of CO emissions with E15 fuel were observed yet the THC emissions exceeded the analyzer range. The engine had a slightly lower speed with E15.

Ultrasonic acoustic emissions in drought-stressed trees - more than signals from cavitation?

Ultrasonic acoustic emission (UAE) in trees is often related to collapsing water columns in the flow path as a result of tensions that are too strong (cavitation). However, in a decibel (dB) range below that associated with cavitation, a close relationship was found between UAE intensities and stem radius changes. • UAE was continuously recorded on the stems of mature field-grown trees of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens) at a dry inner-Alpine site in Switzerland over two seasons. The averaged 20-Hz records were related to microclimatic conditions in air and soil, sap-flow rates and stem-radius fluctuations de-trended for growth (ΔW). • Within a low-dB range (27 ± 1 dB), UAE regularly increased and decreased in a diurnal rhythm in parallel with ΔW on cloudy days and at night. These low-dB emissions were interrupted by UAE abruptly switching between the low-dB range and a high-dB range (36 ± 1 dB) on clear, sunny days, corresponding to the widely supported interpretation of UAE as sound from cavitations. • It is hypothesized that the low-dB signals in drought-stressed trees are caused by respiration and/or cambial growth as these physiological activities are tissue water-content dependent and have been shown to produce courses of CO2 efflux similar to our courses of ΔW and low-dB UAE.

Comparison of the immediate effects of gaseous ozone and chlorhexidine gel on bacteria in cavitated carious lesions in children in vivo

Clinical application of ozone gas has been shown to arrest the progression of dentinal caries in children. In this study, we compare the immediate effects of gaseous ozone and chlorhexidine gel on bacteria in cavitated carious lesions in children. Forty children, each with at least two open occlusal carious lesions, were enrolled in the study. Two teeth were chosen randomly. In one lesion, overlying soft biological material was removed, whilst the other lesion was not excavated. Cavities were rinsed with sterile water and dried with air. A standardised sample was taken from the mesial part of each lesion. Then, gaseous ozone (HealOzone) or 1% chlorhexidine gel (Corsodyl) was applied for 30 s on both lesions of 20 children each, and a second sample was taken from the distal part of each lesion. The anaerobic microbiota was cultivated; the number of colony forming units was calculated per milligram sample. The two-sided paired t test showed no significant (P > 0.05) differences in the reduction of total bacterial counts per milligram comparing samples before and after ozone or chlorhexidine application. The tests also showed no statistically significant difference whether the superficial decayed dentine had been removed before ozone or with chlorhexidine treatment or not. It can be concluded that gaseous ozone or chlorhexidine gel application for 30 s to deep occlusal carious cavities had no significant immediate antimicrobial effects whether the superficial decayed layers dentine were removed or not.

Engaging Local Communities in Low Emissions Land-Use Planning: a Case Study from Laos

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and enhancing forest carbon stocks (REDD+) is a performance-based payment mechanism currently being debated in international and national environmental policy and planning forums. As the mechanism is based on conditionality, payments must reflect land stewards’ level of compliance with carbon-efficient management practices. However, lack of clarity in land governance and carbon rights could undermine REDD+ implementation. Strategies are needed to avoid perverse incentives resulting from the commoditization of forest carbon stocks and, importantly, to identify and secure the rights of legitimate recipients of future REDD+ payments. We propose a landscape-level approach to address potential conflicts related to carbon tenure and REDD+ benefit sharing. We explore various land-tenure scenarios and their implications for carbon ownership in the context of a research site in northern Laos. Our case study shows that a combination of relevant scientific tools, knowledge, and participatory approaches can help avoid the marginalization of rural communities during the REDD+ process. The findings demonstrate that participatory land-use planning is an important step in ensuring that local communities are engaged in negotiating REDD+ schemes and that such negotiations are transparent. Local participation and agreements on land-use plans could provide a sound basis for developing efficient measurement, reporting, and verification systems for REDD+.

Impact of delay in reducing carbon dioxide emissions

Recent downward revisions in the climate response to rising CO2 levels, and opportunities for reducing non-CO2 climate warming, have both been cited as evidence that the case for reducing CO2 emissions is less urgent than previously thought. Evaluating the impact of delay is complicated by the fact that CO2 emissions accumulate over time, so what happens after they peak is as relevant for long-term warming as the size and timing of the peak itself. Previous discussions have focused on how the rate of reduction required to meet any given temperature target rises asymptotically the later the emissions peak. Here we focus on a complementary question: how fast is peak CO2-induced warming increasing while mitigation is delayed, assuming no increase in rates of reduction after the emissions peak? We show that this peak-committed warming is increasing at the same rate as cumulative CO2 emissions, about 2% per year, much faster than observed warming, independent of the climate response.

Net CO 2 surface emissions at Bern, Switzerland inferred from ambient observations of CO 2 , δ(O 2 /N 2 ), and 222 Rn using a customized radon tracer inversion

The 222Radon tracer method is a powerful tool to estimate local and regional surface emissions of, e.g., greenhouse gases. In this paper we demonstrate that in practice, the method as it is commonly used, produces inaccurate results in case of nonhomogeneously spread emission sources, and we propose a different approach to account for this. We have applied the new methodology to ambient observations of CO2 and 222Radon to estimate CO2 surface emissions for the city of Bern, Switzerland. Furthermore, by utilizing combined measurements of CO2 and δ(O2/N2) we obtain valuable information about the spatial and temporal variability of the main emission sources. Mean net CO2 emissions based on 2 years of observations are estimated at (11.2 ± 2.9) kt km−2 a−1. Oxidative ratios indicate a significant influence from the regional biosphere in summer/spring and fossil fuel combustion processes in winter/autumn. Our data indicate that the emissions from fossil fuels are, to a large degree, related to the combustion of natural gas which is used for heating purposes.

Flux and resident injection in gaseous advection experiments

The occurrence of gaseous pollutants in soils has stimulated many experimental activities, including forced ventilation in the field as well as laboratory transport experiments with gases. The dispersion coefficient in advective-dispersive gas phase transport is often dominated by molecular diffusion, which leads to a large overall dispersivity gamma. Under such conditions it is important to distinguish between flux and resident modes of solute injection and detection. The influence of the inlet type oil the macroscopic injection mode was tested in two series of column experiments with gases at different mean flow velocities nu. First we compared infinite resident and flux injections, and second, semi-infinite resident and flux injections. It is shown that the macroscopically apparent injection condition depends on the geometry of the inlet section. A reduction of the cross-sectional area of the inlet relative to that of the column is very effective in excluding the diffusive solute input, thus allowing us to use the solutions for a flux Injection also at rather low mean flow velocities nu. If the whole cross section of a column is exposed to a large reservoir like that of ambient air, a semi-infinite resident injection is established, which can be distinguished from a flux injection even at relatively high velocities nu, depending on the mechanical dispersivity of the porous medium.

Impact of an abrupt cooling event on interglacial methane emissions in northern peatlands

Rapid changes in atmospheric methane (CH4), temperature and precipitation are documented by Greenland ice core data both for glacial times (the so called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events) as well as for a cooling event in the early Holocene (the 8.2 kyr event). The onsets of D-O warm events are paralleled by abrupt increases in CH4 by up to 250 ppb in a few decades. Vice versa, the 8.2 kyr event is accompanied by an intermittent decrease in CH4 of about 80 ppb over 150 yr. The abrupt CH4 changes are thought to mainly originate from source emission variations in tropical and boreal wet ecosystems, but complex process oriented bottom-up model estimates of the changes in these ecosystems during rapid climate changes are still missing. Here we present simulations of CH4 emissions from northern peatlands with the LPJ-Bern dynamic global vegetation model. The model represents CH4 production and oxidation in soils and transport by ebullition, through plant aerenchyma, and by diffusion. Parameters are tuned to represent site emission data as well as inversion-based estimates of northern wetland emissions. The model is forced with climate input data from freshwater hosing experiments using the NCAR CSM1.4 climate model to simulate an abrupt cooling event. A concentration reduction of ~10 ppb is simulated per degree K change of mean northern hemispheric surface temperature in peatlands. Peatland emissions are equally sensitive to both changes in temperature and in precipitation. If simulated changes are taken as an analogy to the 8.2 kyr event, boreal peatland emissions alone could only explain 23 of the 80 ppb decline in atmospheric methane concentration. This points to a significant contribution to source changes from low latitude and tropical wetlands to this event.

Independent variations of CH₄ emissions and isotopic composition over the past 160,000 years

During the last glacial cycle, greenhouse gas concentrations fluctuated on decadal and longer timescales. Concentrations of methane, as measured in polar ice cores, show a close connection with Northern Hemisphere temperature variability, but the contribution of the various methane sources and sinks to changes in concentration is still a matter of debate. Here we assess changes in methane cycling over the past 160,000 years by measurements of the carbon isotopic composition delta C-13 of methane in Antarctic ice cores from Dronning Maud Land and Vostok. We find that variations in the delta C-13 of methane are not generally correlated with changes in atmospheric methane concentration, but instead more closely correlated to atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We interpret this to reflect a climatic and CO2-related control on the isotopic signature of methane source material, such as ecosystem shifts in the seasonally inundated tropical wetlands that produce methane. In contrast, relatively stable delta C-13 values occurred during intervals of large changes in the atmospheric loading of methane. We suggest that most methane sources-most notably tropical wetlands-must have responded simultaneously to climate changes across these periods.

Allowable carbon emissions lowered by multiple climate targets

Climate targets are designed to inform policies that would limit the magnitude and impacts of climate change caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other substances. The target that is currently recognized by most world governments1 places a limit of two degrees Celsius on the global mean warming since preindustrial times. This would require large sustained reductions in carbon dioxide emissions during the twenty-first century and beyond2, 3, 4. Such a global temperature target, however, is not sufficient to control many other quantities, such as transient sea level rise5, ocean acidification6, 7 and net primary production on land8, 9. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) in an observation-informed Bayesian approach, we show that allowable carbon emissions are substantially reduced when multiple climate targets are set. We take into account uncertainties in physical and carbon cycle model parameters, radiative efficiencies10, climate sensitivity11 and carbon cycle feedbacks12, 13 along with a large set of observational constraints. Within this framework, we explore a broad range of economically feasible greenhouse gas scenarios from the integrated assessment community14, 15, 16, 17 to determine the likelihood of meeting a combination of specific global and regional targets under various assumptions. For any given likelihood of meeting a set of such targets, the allowable cumulative emissions are greatly reduced from those inferred from the temperature target alone. Therefore, temperature targets alone are unable to comprehensively limit the risks from anthropogenic emissions.