Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

Use of a saline gradient for the diagnosis of schistosomiasis

The development of novel methods for parasitological diagnosis that are both highly sensitive and low in cost has been strongly recommended by the World Health Organization. In this study, a new technique for diagnosis of schistosomiasis mansoni is proposed based on the differential sedimentation of eggs when subjected to a slow continuous flux of 3% saline solution through a porous plaque. This influx suspends low-density faecal material, effectively cleaning the sample. The remaining sediment covering the porous plaque surface is then transferred to a glass slide and examined under a bright field microscope. Twelve Kato-Katz slides were used for comparison in the present study. Our results suggest that the saline gradient method detects a signifi-cantly higher number of eggs than the 12 Kato-Katz slides (p < 0.0001). We also found microscopic inspection to be quicker and easier with our newly described method. After cleaning the sample, the obtained sediment can also be conserved in a 10% formaldehyde solution and examined for at least 45 days later without statistically significant egg count differences.

Evaluation pré-TAVI : comparaison entre le scanner cardiaque et l'échocardiographie.

Objectifs: Comparer le CT et l'échocardiographie cardiaques pour l'évaluation pré-interventionnelle des patients éligibles pour un remplacement aortique percutané (TAVI). Matériels et méthodes: Trente patients (15F/15H, âge 84±7y) éligibles pour un TAVI par voie transfémorale (n=15) ou transapicale (n=15) ont bénéficié d'un CT pré-procédural pour évaluer le diamètre (DCT) valvulaire aortique. Une échographie trans-thoracique pré et post-TAVI a été effectuée pour évaluer le gradient trans-valvulaire (Gmax) et la différence (ΔGmax), et une échographie trans-oesophagienne (ETO) pour confirmer le diamètre valvulaire (DUS). Le test-t de Student, le test de Lin (ρc) et le test de Bland-Altman (LOA) ont été utilisés pour les comparaisons. Résultats: Le DCT était similaire chez les patients bénéficiant d'un TAVI transfémoral ou transapical (22.9±3.0mm vs. 21.2±1.5mm,p=0.06). Le DCT était plus bas que le DUS (22.2±2.6mm vs. 23.3±2.1mm,p=0.017) et l'agrément entre DCT et DUS était modéré (ρc=0.62,différence moyenne=-1.1±1.9mm, 95%LOA:-4.8-2.6). Le Gmax pré-TAVI était similaire chez les patients ayant un TAVI transfémoral ou transapical (70.8±33.7 vs. 86.3±24.0mmHg,p=0.17). Le Gmax post-TAVI était plus bas que le Gmax pré-TAVI (78.5±29.7 vs. 16.8±5.1mmHg,p<0.001). Le ΔGmax était similaire pour les TAVI transfémoraux ou transapicaux (46.3±28.6 vs. 70.4±25.1 mmHg,p=0.05). Conclusion: Le CT cardiaque représente une alternative non-invasive à l'ETO pour l'évaluation pré-TAVI du diamètre valvulaire aortique.

Policy gradient based Reinforcement Learning for real autonomous underwater cable tracking

This paper proposes a field application of a high-level reinforcement learning (RL) control system for solving the action selection problem of an autonomous robot in cable tracking task. The learning system is characterized by using a direct policy search method for learning the internal state/action mapping. Policy only algorithms may suffer from long convergence times when dealing with real robotics. In order to speed up the process, the learning phase has been carried out in a simulated environment and, in a second step, the policy has been transferred and tested successfully on a real robot. Future steps plan to continue the learning process on-line while on the real robot while performing the mentioned task. We demonstrate its feasibility with real experiments on the underwater robot ICTINEU AUV

Positive contrast visualization of nitinol devices using susceptibility gradient mapping.

MRI visualization of devices is traditionally based on signal loss due to T(2)* effects originating from local susceptibility differences. To visualize nitinol devices with positive contrast, a recently introduced postprocessing method is adapted to map the induced susceptibility gradients. This method operates on regular gradient-echo MR images and maps the shift in k-space in a (small) neighborhood of every voxel by Fourier analysis followed by a center-of-mass calculation. The quantitative map of the local shifts generates the positive contrast image of the devices, while areas without susceptibility gradients render a background with noise only. The positive signal response of this method depends only on the choice of the voxel neighborhood size. The properties of the method are explained and the visualizations of a nitinol wire and two stents are shown for illustration.

Reliability and validity of physiological data obtained within a cycle-run transition test in age-group triathletes.

This study examined the validity and reliability of a sequential "Run-Bike-Run" test (RBR) in age-group triathletes. Eight Olympic distance (OD) specialists (age 30.0 ± 2.0 years, mass 75.6 ± 1.6 kg, run VO2max 63.8 ± 1.9 ml· kg(-1)· min(-1), cycle VO2peak 56.7 ± 5.1 ml· kg(-1)· min(-1)) performed four trials over 10 days. Trial 1 (TRVO2max) was an incremental treadmill running test. Trials 2 and 3 (RBR1 and RBR2) involved: 1) a 7-min run at 15 km· h(-1) (R1) plus a 1-min transition to 2) cycling to fatigue (2 W· kg(-1) body mass then 30 W each 3 min); 3) 10-min cycling at 3 W· kg(-1) (Bsubmax); another 1-min transition and 4) a second 7-min run at 15 km· h(-1) (R2). Trial 4 (TT) was a 30-min cycle - 20-min run time trial. No significant differences in absolute oxygen uptake (VO2), heart rate (HR), or blood lactate concentration ([BLA]) were evidenced between RBR1 and RBR2. For all measured physiological variables, the limits of agreement were similar, and the mean differences were physiologically unimportant, between trials. Low levels of test-retest error (i.e. ICC <0.8, CV<10%) were observed for most (logged) measurements. However [BLA] post R1 (ICC 0.87, CV 25.1%), [BLA] post Bsubmax (ICC 0.99, CV 16.31) and [BLA] post R2 (ICC 0.51, CV 22.9%) were least reliable. These error ranges may help coaches detect real changes in training status over time. Moreover, RBR test variables can be used to predict discipline specific and overall TT performance. Cycle VO2peak, cycle peak power output, and the change between R1 and R2 (deltaR1R2) in [BLA] were most highly related to overall TT distance (r = 0.89, p < 0. 01; r = 0.94, p < 0.02; r = 0.86, p < 0.05, respectively). The percentage of TR VO2max at 15 km· h(-1), and deltaR1R2 HR, were also related to run TT distance (r = -0.83 and 0.86, both p < 0.05).

Intrinsic test of independence in contingency tables

A condition needed for testing nested hypotheses from a Bayesianviewpoint is that the prior for the alternative model concentratesmass around the small, or null, model. For testing independencein contingency tables, the intrinsic priors satisfy this requirement.Further, the degree of concentration of the priors is controlled bya discrete parameter m, the training sample size, which plays animportant role in the resulting answer regardless of the samplesize.In this paper we study robustness of the tests of independencein contingency tables with respect to the intrinsic priors withdifferent degree of concentration around the null, and comparewith other “robust” results by Good and Crook. Consistency ofthe intrinsic Bayesian tests is established.We also discuss conditioning issues and sampling schemes,and argue that conditioning should be on either one margin orthe table total, but not on both margins.Examples using real are simulated data are given

An indirect immunofluorescence antibody test employing whole eggs as the antigen for the diagnosis of abdominal angiostrongyliasis

Abdominal angiostrongyliasis is a potentially fatal zoonotic disease with a broad geographical distribution throughout Central and South America. This study assessed the performance of Angiostrongylus costaricensis eggs as the antigen in an indirect immunofluorescence assay for the determination of parasite-specific IgG and IgG1 antibodies. For prevalence studies, an IgG antibody titre > 16 was identified as the diagnostic threshold with the best performance, providing 93.7% sensitivity and 84.6% specificity. Cross reactivity was evaluated with 65 additional samples from patients with other known parasitic infections. Cross reactivity was observed only in samples from individuals infected with Strongyloides stercoralis. For clinical diagnosis, we recommend the determination of IgG only as a screening test. IgG1 determination may be used to increase the specificity of the results for patients with a positive screening test.

Tire-breeding mosquitoes of public health importance along an urbanisation gradient in Buenos Aires, Argentina

Used vehicle tires are a source of mosquito vectors and a means of their introduction and expansion. With the aim of assessing the effects of urbanisation on the main mosquito vectors in temperate Argentina, the infestation levels of Aedes aegypti (L.) and Culex pipiens L. were studied in used tires from highly urbanised cities to low-urbanised small towns in Buenos Aires. Immatures of both species accounted for 96% of the 9,722 individuals collected; the total individuals collected represented seven species. The percentage of water-filled tires containing mosquitoes [container index (CI)] was 33% and the percentage of infested sites [site index (SI)] was 65.2%. These indexes decreased significantly from low to high urbanisation levels for both mosquito species. The relative abundance (RA) of Ae. aegypti immatures was slightly higher toward large cities, but showed no difference for Cx. pipiens. The CI of shaded tires was significantly higher than the CI of exposed tires for both mosquito species. There was no difference in RA values between shaded and sunlit tires. The CI and the SI were highest during the summer across the urbanisation levels, except for Cx. pipiens, which continued to increase during the autumn in small towns. Results related to urbanisation gradient, sunlit exposure and seasonality are discussed.