Bottom-up modelling of energy demand and technical energy savings potential in the Irish residential sector

The International Energy Agency has repeatedly identified increased end-use energy efficiency as the quickest, least costly method of green house gas mitigation, most recently in the 2012 World Energy Outlook, and urges all governing bodies to increase efforts to promote energy efficiency policies and technologies. The residential sector is recognised as a major potential source of cost effective energy efficiency gains. Within the EU this relative importance can be seen from a review of the National Energy Efficiency Action Plans (NEEAP) submitted by member states, which in all cases place a large emphasis on the residential sector. This is particularly true for Ireland whose residential sector has historically had higher energy consumption and CO2 emissions than the EU average and whose first NEEAP targeted 44% of the energy savings to be achieved in 2020 from this sector. This thesis develops a bottom-up engineering archetype modelling approach to analyse the Irish residential sector and to estimate the technical energy savings potential of a number of policy measures. First, a model of space and water heating energy demand for new dwellings is built and used to estimate the technical energy savings potential due to the introduction of the 2008 and 2010 changes to part L of the building regulations governing energy efficiency in new dwellings. Next, the author makes use of a valuable new dataset of Building Energy Rating (BER) survey results to first characterise the highly heterogeneous stock of existing dwellings, and then to estimate the technical energy savings potential of an ambitious national retrofit programme targeting up to 1 million residential dwellings. This thesis also presents work carried out by the author as part of a collaboration to produce a bottom-up, multi-sector LEAP model for Ireland. Overall this work highlights the challenges faced in successfully implementing both sets of policy measures. It points to the wide potential range of final savings possible from particular policy measures and the resulting high degree of uncertainty as to whether particular targets will be met and identifies the key factors on which the success of these policies will depend. It makes recommendations on further modelling work and on the improvements necessary in the data available to researchers and policy makers alike in order to develop increasingly sophisticated residential energy demand models and better inform policy.

Climate and energy scenarios for Ireland to 2050 using the Irish TIMES energy systems model

Due to growing concerns regarding the anthropogenic interference with the climate system, countries across the world are being challenged to develop effective strategies to mitigate climate change by reducing or preventing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The European Union (EU) is committed to contribute to this challenge by setting a number of climate and energy targets for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 and then agreeing effort sharing amongst Member States. This thesis focus on one Member State, Ireland, which faces specific challenges and is not on track to meet the targets agreed to date. Before this work commenced, there were no projections of energy demand or supply for Ireland beyond 2020. This thesis uses techno-economic energy modelling instruments to address this knowledge gap. It builds and compares robust, comprehensive policy scenarios, providing a means of assessing the implications of different future energy and emissions pathways for the Irish economy, Ireland’s energy mix and the environment. A central focus of this thesis is to explore the dynamics of the energy system moving towards a low carbon economy. This thesis develops an energy systems model (the Irish TIMES model) to assess the implications of a range of energy and climate policy targets and target years. The thesis also compares the results generated from the least cost scenarios with official projections and target pathways and provides useful metrics and indications to identify key drivers and to support both policy makers and stakeholder in identifying cost optimal strategies. The thesis also extends the functionality of energy system modelling by developing and applying new methodologies to provide additional insights with a focus on particular issues that emerge from the scenario analysis carried out. Firstly, the thesis develops a methodology for soft-linking an energy systems model (Irish TIMES) with a power systems model (PLEXOS) to improve the interpretation of the electricity sector results in the energy system model. The soft-linking enables higher temporal resolution and improved characterisation of power plants and power system operation Secondly, the thesis develops a methodology for the integration of agriculture and energy systems modelling to enable coherent economy wide climate mitigation scenario analysis. This provides a very useful starting point for considering the trade-offs between the energy system and agriculture in the context of a low carbon economy and for enabling analysis of land-use competition. Three specific time scale perspectives are examined in this thesis (2020, 2030, 2050), aligning with key policy target time horizons. The results indicate that Ireland’s short term mandatory emissions reduction target will not be achieved without a significant reassessment of renewable energy policy and that the current dominant policy focus on wind-generated electricity is misplaced. In the medium to long term, the results suggest that energy efficiency is the first cost effective measure to deliver emissions reduction; biomass and biofuels are likely to be the most significant fuel source for Ireland in the context of a low carbon future prompting the need for a detailed assessment of possible implications for sustainability and competition with the agri-food sectors; significant changes are required in infrastructure to deliver deep emissions reductions (to enable the electrification of heat and transport, to accommodate carbon capture and storage facilities (CCS) and for biofuels); competition between energy and agriculture for land-use will become a key issue. The purpose of this thesis is to increase the evidence-based underpinning energy and climate policy decisions in Ireland. The methodology is replicable in other Member States.

On the modelling of the thermal interactions between a spray curtain and an impinging cold gas cloud

A mixed Lagrangian-Eulerian model of a Water Curtain barrier is presented. The heat, mass and momentum processes are modelled in a Lagrangian framework for the dispersed phase and in an Eulerian framework for the carrier phase. The derivation of the coupling source terms is illustrated with reference to a given carrier phase cell. The turbulent character of the flow is treated with a single equation model, modified to directly account for the influence of the particles on the flow. The model is implemented in the form of a 2 D incompressible Navier Stokes solver, coupled to an adaptive Rung Kutta method for the Lagrangian sub-system. Simulations of a free standing full cone water spray show satisfactory agreement with experiment. Predictions of a Water Curtain barrier impacted by a cold gas cloud point to markedly different flow fields for the upward and downward configurations, which could influence the effectiveness of chemical absorption in the liquid phase.

Temporal modelling of short-term rainfall using Cox processes

We study two marked point process models based on the Cox process. These models are used to describe the probabilistic structure of the rainfall intensity process. Mathematical formulation of the models is described and some second-moment characteristics of the rainfall depth, and aggregated processes are considered. The derived second-order properties of the accumulated rainfall amounts at different levels of aggregation are used in order to examine the model fit. A brief data analysis is presented. Copyright © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Finite volume methods applied to the computational modelling of welding phenomena

This paper presents the computational modelling of welding phenomena within a versatile numerical framework. The framework embraces models from both the fields of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and computational solid mechanics (CSM). With regard to the CFD modelling of the weld pool fluid dynamics, heat transfer and phase change, cell-centred finite volume (FV) methods are employed. Additionally, novel vertex-based FV methods are employed with regard to the elasto-plastic deformation associated with the CSM. The FV methods are included within an integrated modelling framework, PHYSICA, which can be readily applied to unstructured meshes. The modelling techniques are validated against a variety of reference solutions.

Computational modelling of particle degradation in dilute phase pneumatic conveyors

The aim of this paper is to develop a mathematical model with the ability to predict particle degradation during dilute phase pneumatic conveying. A numerical procedure, based on a matrix representation of degradation processes, is presented to determine the particle impact degradation propensity from a small number of particle single impact tests carried out in a new designed laboratory scale degradation tester. A complete model of particle degradation during dilute phase pneumatic conveying is then described, where the calculation of degradation propensity is coupled with a flow model of the solids and gas phases in the pipeline. Numerical results are presented for degradation of granulated sugar in an industrial scale pneumatic conveyor.

Modelling the wave soldering process

Compuational fluid dynamics (CFD) is used to help understand the gas flow characteristics in the wave soldering process. CFD has the ability to calculate (1) heal transfer, (2) fluid dynamics, and (3) oxygen concentration throughout the wave soldering machine. Understanding the impact of fluid dynamics on oxygen concentration is important as excessive oxygen at the solder bath can lead to high dross contents and hence poor solder joint quality on the printed circuit board. This paper describes the CFD modelling approach and illustrates its capability for a machine which has nitrogen injectors near the solder bath. Different magnitiutes of nitrogen flow rates are investigated and it is demonstrated how these effect the oxygen concentration at the bath surface.

Review of the technology and reliability issues arising as optical interconnects migrate onto the circuit board

Light has the greatest information carrying potential of all the perceivable interconnect mediums; consequently, optical fiber interconnects rapidly replaced copper in telecommunications networks, providing bandwidth capacity far in excess of its predecessors. As a result the modern telecommunications infrastructure has evolved into a global mesh of optical networks with VCSEL’s (Vertical Cavity Surface Emitting Lasers) dominating the short-link markets, predominately due to their low-cost. This cost benefit of VCSELs has allowed optical interconnects to again replace bandwidth limited copper as bottlenecks appear on VSR (Very Short Reach) interconnects between co-located equipment inside the CO (Central-Office). Spurred by the successful deployment in the VSR domain and in response to both intra-board backplane applications and inter-board requirements to extend the bandwidth between IC’s (Integrated Circuits), current research is migrating optical links toward board level USR (Ultra Short Reach) interconnects. Whilst reconfigurable Free Space Optical Interconnect (FSOI) are an option, they are complicated by precise line-of-sight alignment conditions hence benefits exist in developing guided wave technologies, which have been classified into three generations. First and second generation technologies are based upon optical fibers and are both capable of providing a suitable platform for intra-board applications. However, to allow component assembly, an integral requirement for inter-board applications, 3rd generation Opto-Electrical Circuit Boards (OECB’s) containing embedded waveguides are desirable. Currently, the greatest challenge preventing the deployment of OECB’s is achieving the out-of-plane coupling to SMT devices. With the most suitable low-cost platform being to integrate the optics into the OECB manufacturing process, several research avenues are being explored although none to date have demonstrated sufficient coupling performance. Once in place, the OECB assemblies will generate new reliability issues such as assembly configurations, manufacturing tolerances, and hermetic requirements that will also require development before total off-chip photonic interconnection can truly be achieved

Modelling the tilt-casting process for the tranquil filling of titanium alloy turbine blades

The tilt-casting method is used to achieve tranquil filling of gamma-TiAl turbine blades. The reactive alloy is melted in a cold crucible using an induction coil and then the complete crucible-mould- running system assembly is rotated through 180degrees to transfer the metal into the mould. The induction current is ramped down gradually as the rotation starts and the mould is preheated to maintain superheat. The liquid metal then enters the mould and the gas within it (argon) escapes through the inlet aperture and through auxiliary vents. Solidification starts as soon the metal enters the mould and it is important to account for this effect to predict and prevent misruns. The rotation rate has to be controlled carefully to allow sufficient time for gas evacuation, but at the same time preserve superheat. This 3-phase system is modelled using the FV method, with a fast implicit numerical scheme used to capture the transient liquid free surface. The enthalpy method is used to model solidification and predict defects such as trapped bubbles, macro-porosity or surface connected porosity. Modeling is used to support an experimental program for the development of a production method for gamma-TiAl blades, with a target length of 40cm. The experiments provide validation for the model and the model in turn optimizes the tilt-casting process. The work is part of the EU project IMPRESS.

Consistent increase in dimethyl sulphide (DMS) in response to high CO2 in five shipboard bioassays from contrasting NW European waters

The ubiquitous marine trace gas dimethyl sulphide (DMS) comprises the greatest natural source of sulphur to the atmosphere and is a key player in atmospheric chemistry and climate. We explore the short term response of DMS and its algal precursor dimethyl sulphoniopropionate (DMSP) production and cycling to elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and ocean acidification (OA) in five highly replicated 96 h shipboard bioassay experiments from contrasting sites in NW European shelf waters. In general, the response to OA throughout this region showed little variation, despite encompassing a range of biological and biogeochemical conditions. We observed consistent and marked increases in DMS concentrations relative to ambient controls, and decreases in DMSP concentrations. Quantification of rates of specific DMSP synthesis by phytoplankton and bacterial DMS gross production/consumption suggest algal processes dominated the CO2 response, likely due to a physiological response manifested as increases in direct cellular exudation of DMS and/or DMSP lyase enzyme activities. The variables and rates we report increase our understanding of the processes behind the response to OA. This could provide the opportunity to improve upon mesocosm-derived empirical modelling relationships, and move towards a mechanistic approach for predicting future DMS concentrations.

Modelling the Influence of Major Baltic Inflows on Near-Bottom Conditions at the Entrance of the Gulf of Finland

A coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model was implemented in order to estimate the effects of Major Baltic Inflows on the near-bottom hydrophysical and biogeochemical conditions in the northern Baltic Proper and the western Gulf of Finland during the period 1991�2009. We compared results of a realistic reference run to the results of an experimental run where Major Baltic Inflows were suppressed. Further to the expected overall decrease in bottom salinity, this modelling experiment confirms that in the absence of strong saltwater inflows the deep areas of the Baltic Proper would become more anoxic, while in the shallower areas (western Gulf of Finland) near-bottom average conditions improve. Our experiment revealed that typical estuarine circulation results in the sporadic emergence of short-lasting events of near-bottom anoxia in the western Gulf of Finland due to transport of water masses from the Baltic Proper. Extrapolating our results beyond the modelled period, we speculate that the further deepening of the halocline in the Baltic Proper is likely to prevent inflows of anoxic water to the Gulf of Finland and in the longer term would lead to improvement in near-bottom conditions in the Baltic Proper. Our results reaffirm the importance of accurate representation of salinity dynamics in coupled Baltic Sea models serving as a basis for credible hindcast and future projection simulations of biogeochemical conditions.

Modelling large-scale CO2 leakages in the North Sea

A three dimensional hydrodynamic model with a coupled carbonate speciation sub-model is used to simulate large additions of CO2into the North Sea, representing leakages at potential carbon sequestration sites. A range of leakage scenarios are conducted at two distinct release sites, allowing an analysis of the seasonal, inter-annual and spatial variability of impacts to the marine ecosystem. Seasonally stratified regions are shown to be more vulnerable to CO2release during the summer as the added CO2remains trapped beneath the thermocline, preventing outgasing to the atmosphere. On average, CO2 injected into the northern North Sea is shown to reside within the water column twice as long as an equivalent addition in the southern North Sea before reaching the atmosphere. Short-term leakages of 5000 tonnes CO2over a single day result in substantial acidification at the release sites (up to -1.92 pH units), with significant perturbations (greater than 0.1 pH units) generally confined to a 10 km radius. Long-term CO2leakages sustained for a year may result in extensive plumes of acidified seawater, carried by major advective pathways. Whilst such scenarios could be harmful to marine biota over confined spatial scales, continued unmitigated CO2emissions from fossil fuels are predicted to result in greater and more long-lived perturbations to the carbonate system over the next few decades.

Modelling of Unsteady Gas-Dynamic Flow in a Pipe and at its Exit Using CFD

Traditionally the simulation of the thermodynamic aspects of the internal combustion engine has been undertaken using one-dimensional gas-dynamic models to represent the intake and exhaust systems. CFD analysis of engines has been restricted to modelling of in-cylinder flow structures. With the increasing accessibility of CFD software it is now worth considering its use for complete gas-dynamic engine simulation. This paper appraises the accuracy of various CFD models in comparison to a 1D gas-dynamic simulation. All of the models are compared to experimental data acquired on an apparatus that generates a single gas-dynamic pressure wave. The progress of the wave along a constant area pipe and its subsequent reflection from the open pipe end are recorded with a number of high speed pressure transducers. It was found that there was little to choose between the accuracy of the 1D model and the best CFD model. The CFD model did not require experimentally derived loss coefficients to accurately represent the open pipe end; however, it took several hundred times longer to complete its analysis. The best congruency between the CFD models and the experimental data was achieved using the RNG k-e turbulence model. The open end of the pipe was most effectively represented by surrounding it with a relatively small volume of cells connected to the rest of the environment using a pressure boundary.

Integration Of Strength and Process Modelling of Friction-Stir-Welded Fuselage Panels

In order to reduce potential uncertainties and conservatism in welded panel analysis procedures, understanding of the relationships between welding process parameters and static strength is required. The aim of this study is to determine and characterize the key process induced properties of advanced welding assembly methods on stiffened panel local buckling and collapse performance. To this end, an in-depth experimental and computational study of the static strength of a friction stir welded fuselage skin-stiffener panel subjected to compression loading has been undertaken. Four welding process effects, viz. the weld joint width, the width of the weld Heat Affected Zone, the strength of material within the weld Heat Affected Zone and the magnitude of welding induced residual stress, are investigated. A fractional factorial experiment design method (Taguchi) has been applied to identify the relative importance of each welding process effect and investigate effect interactions on both local skin buckling and crippling collapse performance. For the identified dominant welding process effects, parametric studies have been undertaken to identify critical welding process effect magnitudes and boundaries. The studies have shown that local skin buckling is principally influenced by the magnitude of welding induced residual stress and that the strength of material in the Heat Affected Zone and the magnitude of the welding induced residual stress have the greatest influence on crippling collapse behavior.


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