'Catching them young':inspiring future engineers, an exploratory study

The requirement that primary school children appreciate fully the pivotal role played by engineering in the sustainable development of future society is reflected in the literature with much attention being paid to the need to spark childrens engineering imagination early-on in their school careers. Moreover, UK policy documents highlight the value of embedding engineering into the school curriculum, arguing that programmes aimed at inspiring children through a process of real-life learning experiences are vital pedagogical tools in promoting engineering to future generations. Despite such attention, engineering education at school-level remains sporadic, often reliant on individual engineering-entrepreneurs such as teachers who, through personal interest, get children involved in what are usually extra-curriculum, time-limited engineering focused programmes and competitions. This paper briefly discusses an exploratory study aimed at investigating the issues surrounding embedding engineering into the primary school curriculum. It gives some insight into the perceptions of various stakeholders in respect of the viability and value of introducing engineering education into the primary school curriculum from the age of 6 or 7. A conceptual framework of primary level engineering education, bringing together the theoretical, pedagogical and policy related phenomena influencing the development of engineering education is proposed. The paper concludes by arguing that in order to avert future societal disaster, childrens engineering imagination needs to be ignited from an early age and that to do this primary engineering education needs to be given far more educational, social and political attention. © 2009 Authors.

Engineering the future! Innovation in learning & teaching:an empirical approach

Learning and teaching approaches to engineering are generally perceived to be difficult and academically challenging. Such challenges are reflected in high levels of student attrition and failure. In addressing this issue, a unique approach to engineering education has been developed by one of the paper authors. This approach, which is suitable for undergraduate and postgraduate levels, brings together pedagogic and engineering epistemologies in an empirically grounded framework. It is underpinned by three distinctive concepts: Relationships, Variety & Alignment. Based upon research, the R + V + A approach to engineering education provides a learning and teaching strategy which in enhancing the student experience increases retention and positively impacts student success. In discussing the emergent findings of a study into the pedagogical value of the approach the paper makes a significant contribution to academic theory and practice in this area.

Artificial neural network application in short-term prediction in an oscillating water column

Oscillating Water Column (OWC) is one type of promising wave energy devices due to its obvious advantage over many other wave energy converters: no moving component in sea water. Two types of OWCs (bottom-fixed and floating) have been widely investigated, and the bottom-fixed OWCs have been very successful in several practical applications. Recently, the proposal of massive wave energy production and the availability of wave energy have pushed OWC applications from near-shore to deeper water regions where floating OWCs are a better choice. For an OWC under sea waves, the air flow driving air turbine to generate electricity is a random process. In such a working condition, single design/operation point is nonexistent. To improve energy extraction, and to optimise the performance of the device, a system capable of controlling the air turbine rotation speed is desirable. To achieve that, this paper presents a short-term prediction of the random, process by an artificial neural network (ANN), which can provide near-future information for the control system. In this research, ANN is explored and tuned for a better prediction of the airflow (as well as the device motions for a wide application). It is found that, by carefully constructing ANN platform and optimizing the relevant parameters, ANN is capable of predicting the random process a few steps ahead of the real, time with a good accuracy. More importantly, the tuned ANN works for a large range of different types of random, process.

Occupant location prediction in smart buildings using association rule mining

Heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC) systems are significant consumers of energy, however building management systems do not typically operate them in accordance with occupant movements. Due to the delayed response of HVAC systems, prediction of occupant locations is necessary to maximize energy efficiency. We present an approach to occupant location prediction based on association rule mining, allowing prediction based on historical occupant locations. Association rule mining is a machine learning technique designed to find any correlations which exist in a given dataset. Occupant location datasets have a number of properties which differentiate them from the market basket datasets that association rule mining was originally designed for. This thesis adapts the approach to suit such datasets, focusing the rule mining process on patterns which are useful for location prediction. This approach, named OccApriori, allows for the prediction of occupants’ next locations as well as their locations further in the future, and can take into account any available data, for example the day of the week, the recent movements of the occupant, and timetable data. By integrating an existing extension of association rule mining into the approach, it is able to make predictions based on general classes of locations as well as specific locations.

Dynamic Programming Approaches for Estimating and Applying Large-scale Discrete Choice Models

People go through their life making all kinds of decisions, and some of these decisions affect their demand for transportation, for example, their choices of where to live and where to work, how and when to travel and which route to take. Transport related choices are typically time dependent and characterized by large number of alternatives that can be spatially correlated. This thesis deals with models that can be used to analyze and predict discrete choices in large-scale networks. The proposed models and methods are highly relevant for, but not limited to, transport applications. We model decisions as sequences of choices within the dynamic discrete choice framework, also known as parametric Markov decision processes. Such models are known to be difficult to estimate and to apply to make predictions because dynamic programming problems need to be solved in order to compute choice probabilities. In this thesis we show that it is possible to explore the network structure and the flexibility of dynamic programming so that the dynamic discrete choice modeling approach is not only useful to model time dependent choices, but also makes it easier to model large-scale static choices. The thesis consists of seven articles containing a number of models and methods for estimating, applying and testing large-scale discrete choice models. In the following we group the contributions under three themes: route choice modeling, large-scale multivariate extreme value (MEV) model estimation and nonlinear optimization algorithms. Five articles are related to route choice modeling. We propose different dynamic discrete choice models that allow paths to be correlated based on the MEV and mixed logit models. The resulting route choice models become expensive to estimate and we deal with this challenge by proposing innovative methods that allow to reduce the estimation cost. For example, we propose a decomposition method that not only opens up for possibility of mixing, but also speeds up the estimation for simple logit models, which has implications also for traffic simulation. Moreover, we compare the utility maximization and regret minimization decision rules, and we propose a misspecification test for logit-based route choice models. The second theme is related to the estimation of static discrete choice models with large choice sets. We establish that a class of MEV models can be reformulated as dynamic discrete choice models on the networks of correlation structures. These dynamic models can then be estimated quickly using dynamic programming techniques and an efficient nonlinear optimization algorithm. Finally, the third theme focuses on structured quasi-Newton techniques for estimating discrete choice models by maximum likelihood. We examine and adapt switching methods that can be easily integrated into usual optimization algorithms (line search and trust region) to accelerate the estimation process. The proposed dynamic discrete choice models and estimation methods can be used in various discrete choice applications. In the area of big data analytics, models that can deal with large choice sets and sequential choices are important. Our research can therefore be of interest in various demand analysis applications (predictive analytics) or can be integrated with optimization models (prescriptive analytics). Furthermore, our studies indicate the potential of dynamic programming techniques in this context, even for static models, which opens up a variety of future research directions.

Future CO2-induced ocean acidification mediates the physiological performance of a green tide alga Ulva prolifera

The oceans take up more than 1 million tons of CO2 from the air per hour, about one-quarter of the anthropogenically released amount, leading to disrupted seawater chemistry due to increasing CO2 emissions. Based on the fossil fuel-intensive CO2 emission scenario (A1F1; Houghton et al., 2001), the H+ concentration or acidity of surface seawater will increase by about 150% (pH drop by 0.4) by the end of this century, the process known as ocean acidification (OA; Sabine et al., 2004; Doney et al., 2009; Gruber et al., 2012). Seawater pH is suggested to decrease faster in the coastal waters than in the pelagic oceans due to the interactions of hypoxia, respiration, and OA (Cai et al., 2011). Therefore, responses of coastal algae to OA are of general concern, considering the economic and social services provided by the coastal ecosystem that is adjacent to human living areas and that is dependent on coastal primary productivity. On the other hand, dynamic environmental changes in the coastal waters can interact with OA (Beardall et al., 2009).

The Optimality of Decision Making During Motor Learning

In our daily lives, we often must predict how well we are going to perform in the future based on an evaluation of our current performance and an assessment of how much we will improve with practice. Such predictions can be used to decide whether to invest our time and energy in learning and, if we opt to invest, what rewards we may gain. This thesis investigated whether people are capable of tracking their own learning (i.e. current and future motor ability) and exploiting that information to make decisions related to task reward. In experiment one, participants performed a target aiming task under a visuomotor rotation such that they initially missed the target but gradually improved. After briefly practicing the task, they were asked to select rewards for hits and misses applied to subsequent performance in the task, where selecting a higher reward for hits came at a cost of receiving a lower reward for misses. We found that participants made decisions that were in the direction of optimal and therefore demonstrated knowledge of future task performance. In experiment two, participants learned a novel target aiming task in which they were rewarded for target hits. Every five trials, they could choose a target size which varied inversely with reward value. Although participants’ decisions deviated from optimal, a model suggested that they took into account both past performance, and predicted future performance, when making their decisions. Together, these experiments suggest that people are capable of tracking their own learning and using that information to make sensible decisions related to reward maximization.

Do we need to rethink our waterways? Values of ageing waterways in current and future society

In the past canals were developed, and some rivers were heavily altered, driven by the need for good transportation infrastructure. Major investments were made in navigation locks, weirs and artificial embankments, and many of these assets are now reaching the end of their technical lifetime. Since then the concept of integrated water resource management (IWRM) emerged as a concept to manage and develop water-bodies in general. Two pressing problems arise from these developments: (1) major reinvestment is needed in order to maintain the transportation function of these waterways, and (2), it is not clear how the implementation of the concept of IWRM can be brought into harmony with such reinvestment. This paper aims to illustrate the problems in capital-intensive parts of waterway systems, and argues for exploring value-driven solutions that rely on the inclusion of multiple values, thus solving both funding problems and stakeholder conflicts. The focus on value in cooperative strategies is key to defining viable implementation strategies for waterway projects.

Television history: archives, excavation and the future. A discussion

This article considers possible futures for television (TV) studies, imagining how the discipline might evolve more productively over the next 10 years and what practical steps are necessary to move towards those outcomes. Conducted as a round-table discussion between leading figures in television history and archives, the debate focuses on the critical issue of archives, considering and responding to questions of access/inaccessibility, texts/contexts, commercial/symbolic value, impact and relevance. These questions reflect recurrent concerns when selecting case studies for historical TV research projects: how difficult is it to access the material (when it survives)? What obstacles might be faced (copyright, costs, etc.) when disseminating findings to a wider public? The relationship between the roles of ‘researcher’ and ‘archivist’ appears closer and more mutually supportive in TV studies than in other academic disciplines, with many people in practice straddling the traditional divide between the two roles, combining specialisms that serve to further scholarship and learning as well as the preservation of, and broad public engagements with, collections. The Research Excellence Framework’s imperative for academic researchers to achieve ‘impact’ in broader society encourages active and creative collaboration with those based in public organizations, such as the British Film Institute (BFI), who have a remit to reach a wider public. The discussion identifies various problems and successes experienced in collaboration between the academic, public and commercial sectors in the course of recent and ongoing research projects in TV studies.

MicroRNAs in Parasitic Helminthiases: Current Status and Future Perspectives

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) play a variety of roles in diverse biological processes at the post-transcriptional regulatory level. Although numerous miRNAs have been identified in parasitic helminths, we still know little about their biological functions. As molecular signatures that can be stably detectable in serum and plasma, worm-derived miRNAs have shown promise as markers for the early detection of particular helminth infections. In addition, host miRNAs are dysregulated during the development of pathology associated with helminthiases and show potential as therapeutic intervention targets. This review discusses the possible biological roles of helminth miRNAs, the prediction of their specific targets, their application in diagnosis and anti-pathology therapy interventions, and the potential functions of miRNAs in extracellular vesicle cargo, such as exosomes, in helminth-host interplay.

Optimization and Prediction of Mechanical and Thermal Properties of Graphene/LLDPE Nanocomposites by Using Artificial Neural Networks

The focus of this work is to develop the knowledge of prediction of the physical and chemical properties of processed linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE)/graphene nanoplatelets composites. Composites made from LLDPE reinforced with 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10 wt% grade C graphene nanoplatelets (C-GNP) were processed in a twin screw extruder with three different screw speeds and feeder speeds (50, 100, and 150 rpm). These applied conditions are used to optimize the following properties: thermal conductivity, crystallization temperature, degradation temperature, and tensile strength while prediction of these properties was done through artificial neural network (ANN). The three first properties increased with increase in both screw speed and C-GNP content. The tensile strength reached a maximum value at 4 wt% C-GNP and a speed of 150 rpm as this represented the optimum condition for the stress transfer through the amorphous chains of the matrix to the C-GNP. ANN can be confidently used as a tool to predict the above material properties before investing in development programs and actual manufacturing, thus significantly saving money, time, and effort.

Essential scientific mapping of the value chain of thermochemical converted second-generation bio-fuels

As the largest contributor to renewable energy, biomass (especially lignocellulosic biomass) has significant potential to address atmospheric emission and energy shortage issues. The bio-fuels derived from lignocellulosic biomass are popularly referred to as second-generation bio-fuels. To date, several thermochemical conversion pathways for the production of second-generation bio-fuels have shown commercial promise; however, most of these remain at various pre-commercial stages. In view of their imminent commercialization, it is important to conduct a profound and comprehensive comparison of these production techniques. Accordingly, the scope of this review is to fill this essential knowledge gap by mapping the entire value chain of second-generation bio-fuels, from technical, economic, and environmental perspectives. This value chain covers i) the thermochemical technologies used to convert solid biomass feedstock into easier-to-handle intermediates, such as bio-oil, syngas, methanol, and Fischer-Tropsch fuel; and ii) the upgrading technologies used to convert intermediates into end products, including diesel, gasoline, renewable jet fuels, hydrogen, char, olefins, and oxygenated compounds. This review also provides an economic and commercial assessment of these technologies, with the aim of identifying the most adaptable technology for the production of bio-fuels, fuel additives, and bio-chemicals. A detailed mapping of the carbon footprints of the various thermochemical routes to second-generation bio-fuels is also carried out. The review concludes by identifying key challenges and future trends for second-generation petroleum substitute bio-fuels.

Identifying the Impact of Incomplete Datasets on Process Cycle Time Prediction in an Aerospace Assembly Line

Supply Chain Simulation (SCS) is applied to acquire information to support outsourcing decisions but obtaining enough detail in key parameters can often be a barrier to making well informed decisions.
One aspect of SCS that has been relatively unexplored is the impact of inaccurate data around delays within the SC. The impact of the magnitude and variability of process cycle time on typical performance indicators in a SC context is studied.
System cycle time, WIP levels and throughput are more sensitive to the magnitude of deterministic deviations in process cycle time than variable deviations. Manufacturing costs are not very sensitive to these deviations.
Future opportunities include investigating the impact of process failure or product defects, including logistics and transportation between SC members and using alternative costing methodologies.

Troponin I and cardiovascular risk prediction in the general population: the BiomarCaRE consortium

AIMS: Our aims were to evaluate the distribution of troponin I concentrations in population cohorts across Europe, to characterize the association with cardiovascular outcomes, to determine the predictive value beyond the variables used in the ESC SCORE, to test a potentially clinically relevant cut-off value, and to evaluate the improved eligibility for statin therapy based on elevated troponin I concentrations retrospectively.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Based on the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project, we analysed individual level data from 10 prospective population-based studies including 74 738 participants. We investigated the value of adding troponin I levels to conventional risk factors for prediction of cardiovascular disease by calculating measures of discrimination (C-index) and net reclassification improvement (NRI). We further tested the clinical implication of statin therapy based on troponin concentration in 12 956 individuals free of cardiovascular disease in the JUPITER study. Troponin I remained an independent predictor with a hazard ratio of 1.37 for cardiovascular mortality, 1.23 for cardiovascular disease, and 1.24 for total mortality. The addition of troponin I information to a prognostic model for cardiovascular death constructed of ESC SCORE variables increased the C-index discrimination measure by 0.007 and yielded an NRI of 0.048, whereas the addition to prognostic models for cardiovascular disease and total mortality led to lesser C-index discrimination and NRI increment. In individuals above 6 ng/L of troponin I, a concentration near the upper quintile in BiomarCaRE (5.9 ng/L) and JUPITER (5.8 ng/L), rosuvastatin therapy resulted in higher absolute risk reduction compared with individuals <6 ng/L of troponin I, whereas the relative risk reduction was similar.

CONCLUSION: In individuals free of cardiovascular disease, the addition of troponin I to variables of established risk score improves prediction of cardiovascular death and cardiovascular disease.

Proposing the deep dynamic Bayesian network as a future computer based medical system

The development of new learning models has been of great importance throughout recent years, with a focus on creating advances in the area of deep learning. Deep learning was first noted in 2006, and has since become a major area of research in a number of disciplines. This paper will delve into the area of deep learning to present its current limitations and provide a new idea for a fully integrated deep and dynamic probabilistic system. The new model will be applicable to a vast number of areas initially focusing on applications into medical image analysis with an overall goal of utilising this approach for prediction purposes in computer based medical systems.