Chow–Liu trees are sufficient predictive models for reproducing key features of functional networks of periictal EEG time-series

Seizure freedom in patients suffering from pharmacoresistant epilepsies is still not achieved in 20–30% of all cases. Hence, current therapies need to be improved, based on a more complete understanding of ictogenesis. In this respect, the analysis of functional networks derived from intracranial electroencephalographic (iEEG) data has recently become a standard tool. Functional networks however are purely descriptive models and thus are conceptually unable to predict fundamental features of iEEG time-series, e.g., in the context of therapeutical brain stimulation. In this paper we present some first steps towards overcoming the limitations of functional network analysis, by showing that its results are implied by a simple predictive model of time-sliced iEEG time-series. More specifically, we learn distinct graphical models (so called Chow–Liu (CL) trees) as models for the spatial dependencies between iEEG signals. Bayesian inference is then applied to the CL trees, allowing for an analytic derivation/prediction of functional networks, based on thresholding of the absolute value Pearson correlation coefficient (CC) matrix. Using various measures, the thus obtained networks are then compared to those which were derived in the classical way from the empirical CC-matrix. In the high threshold limit we find (a) an excellent agreement between the two networks and (b) key features of periictal networks as they have previously been reported in the literature. Apart from functional networks, both matrices are also compared element-wise, showing that the CL approach leads to a sparse representation, by setting small correlations to values close to zero while preserving the larger ones. Overall, this paper shows the validity of CL-trees as simple, spatially predictive models for periictal iEEG data. Moreover, we suggest straightforward generalizations of the CL-approach for modeling also the temporal features of iEEG signals.

Pinus nigra (European black pine) as the dominant species of the last glacial pinewoods in south-western to central Iberia: a morphological study of modern and fossil pollen

Aim Our aim was to discriminate different species of Pinus via pollen analysis in order to assess the responses of particular pine species to orbital and millennial-scale climate changes, particularly during the last glacial period. Location Modern pollen grains were collected from current pine populations along transects from the Pyrenees to southern Iberia and the Balearic Islands. Fossil pine pollen was recovered from the south-western Iberian margin core MD95-2042. Methods We measured a set of morphological traits of modern pollen from the Iberian pine species Pinus nigra, P. sylvestris, P. halepensis, P. pinea and P. pinaster and of fossil pine pollen from selected samples of the last glacial period and the early to mid-Holocene. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was used to establish a model from the modern dataset that discriminates pollen from the different pine species and allows identification of fossil pine pollen at the species level. Results The CART model was effective in separating pollen of P. nigra and P. sylvestris from that of the Mediterranean pine group (P. halepensis, P. pinea and P. pinaster). The pollen of Pinus nigra diverged from that of P. sylvestris by having a more flattened corpus. Predictions using this model suggested that fossil pine pollen is mainly from P. nigra in all the samples analysed. Pinus sylvestris was more abundant in samples from Greenland stadials than Heinrich stadials, whereas Mediterranean pines increased in samples from Greenland interstadials and during the early to mid-Holocene. Main conclusions Morphological parameters can be successfully used to increase the taxonomic resolution of fossil pine pollen at the species level for the highland pines (P. nigra and P. sylvestris) and at the group of species level for the Mediterranean pines. Our study indicates that P. nigra was the dominant component of the last glacial south-western/central Iberian pinewoods, although the species composition of these woodlands varied in response to abrupt climate changes.

Lateglacial and Holocene vegetation belts in the Pirin Mountains (southwestern Bulgaria)

Pollen stratigraphy of a core 270 cm long from Lake Dalgoto at 2310 m in the Northern Pirin Mountains, southern Bulgaria, was treated by optimal partitioning and compared to a broken-stick model to reveal statistically significant pollen zones. The vegetational reconstructions presented here are based on pollen percentages and pollen influx, on comparisons of modern and fossil pollen spectra, and on macrofossil dates from other sites in the mountains. During the Younger Dryas (11000–10200 14C yr BP), an open xerophytic herb vegetation with Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae was widely developed around the lake. Deciduous trees growing at lower elevations contributed to the pollen rain deposited at the higher-elevation sampling sites. Specifically, from 10200 to 8500 yr BP, Quercus, Ulmus, Tilia and Betula expanded rapidly at low and intermediate elevations, and between 8500 and 6500 yr BP they extended to higher elevations close to the upper forest limit, which was formed by Betula pendula at about 1900 m. Coniferous species were limited in the region at this time. After 6500 yr BP, the expansion of conifers (Pinus peuce, P. sylvestris, P. mugo, Abies alba) at high elevations forced the deciduous trees downward. Between 6500 and 3000 yr BP, the forest limit at 2200 m was formed by P. peuce, and A. alba had its maximum vertical range up to 1900 m. Later the abundance and vertical range of P. peuce and A. alba were reduced. After 3000 yr BP, Picea expanded.

A palaeoecological attempt to classify fire sensitivity of trees in the southern Alps

Using pollen percentages and charcoal influx to reconstruct the Holocene vegetation and fire history, we differentiate six possible responses of plants to fire of medium and high frequency: fire-intolerant, fire damaged, fire-sensitive, fire-indifferent, fire-enhanced and fire-adapted. The fire sensitivity of 17 pollen types, representing 20 woody species in the southern Alps, is validated by comparison with today's ecological studies of plant chronosequences. A surprising coincidence of species reaction to fire of medium frequency is character istic for completely different vegetation types, such as woodlands dominated byAbies alba (7000 years ago) andCastanea sativa (today). The temporal persistence of post-fire behaviour of plant taxa up to thousands of years suggests a generally valid species-related fire sensitivity that may be influenced only in part by changing external conditions. A non-analogous behaviour of woody taxa after fire is documented for high fire frequencies. Divergent behaviour patterns of plant taxa in response to medium and high fire frequencies (e.g., increases and decreases ofAlnus glutinosa) also indicate that post-fire plant reactions may change with increasing fire fre quency.

Younger Dryas and Allerød summer temperatures at Gerzensee (Switzerland) inferred from fossil pollen and cladoceran assemblages

Linear- and unimodal-based inference models for mean summer temperatures (partial least squares, weighted averaging, and weighted averaging partial least squares models) were applied to a high-resolution pollen and cladoceran stratigraphy from Gerzensee, Switzerland. The time-window of investigation included the Allerød, the Younger Dryas, and the Preboreal. Characteristic major and minor oscillations in the oxygen-isotope stratigraphy, such as the Gerzensee oscillation, the onset and end of the Younger Dryas stadial, and the Preboreal oscillation, were identified by isotope analysis of bulk-sediment carbonates of the same core and were used as independent indicators for hemispheric or global scale climatic change. In general, the pollen-inferred mean summer temperature reconstruction using all three inference models follows the oxygen-isotope curve more closely than the cladoceran curve. The cladoceran-inferred reconstruction suggests generally warmer summers than the pollen-based reconstructions, which may be an effect of terrestrial vegetation not being in equilibrium with climate due to migrational lags during the Late Glacial and early Holocene. Allerød summer temperatures range between 11 and 12°C based on pollen, whereas the cladoceran-inferred temperatures lie between 11 and 13°C. Pollen and cladocera-inferred reconstructions both suggest a drop to 9–10°C at the beginning of the Younger Dryas. Although the Allerød–Younger Dryas transition lasted 150–160 years in the oxygen-isotope stratigraphy, the pollen-inferred cooling took 180–190 years and the cladoceran-inferred cooling lasted 250–260 years. The pollen-inferred summer temperature rise to 11.5–12°C at the transition from the Younger Dryas to the Preboreal preceded the oxygen-isotope signal by several decades, whereas the cladoceran-inferred warming lagged. Major discrepancies between the pollen- and cladoceran-inference models are observed for the Preboreal, where the cladoceran-inference model suggests mean summer temperatures of up to 14–15°C. Both pollen- and cladoceran-inferred reconstructions suggest a cooling that may be related to the Gerzensee oscillation, but there is no evidence for a cooling synchronous with the Preboreal oscillation as recorded in the oxygen-isotope record. For the Gerzensee oscillation the inferred cooling was ca. 1 and 0.5°C based on pollen and cladocera, respectively, which lies well within the inherent prediction errors of the inference models.

Herbivores limit the population size of big-leaf mahogany trees in an Amazonian forest

The Janzen–Connell hypothesis proposes that specialized herbivores maintain high numbers of tree species in tropical forests by restricting adult recruitment so that host populations remain at low densities. We tested this prediction for the large timber tree species, Swietenia macrophylla, whose seeds and seedlings are preyed upon by small mammals and a host-specific moth caterpillar Steniscadia poliophaea, respectively. At a primary forest site, experimental seed additions to gaps – canopy-disturbed areas that enhance seedling growth into saplings – over three years revealed lower survival and seedling recruitment closer to conspecific trees and in higher basal area neighborhoods, as well as reduced subsequent seedling survival and height growth. When we included these Janzen–Connell effects in a spatially explicit individual-based population model, the caterpillar's impact was critical to limiting Swietenia's adult tree density, with a > 10-fold reduction estimated at 300 years. Our research demonstrates the crucial but oft-ignored linkage between Janzen–Connell effects on offspring and population-level consequences for a long-lived, potentially dominant tree species.

Litter nutrients and retranslocation in a central African rain forest dominated by ectomycorrhizal trees

In the strongly seasonal, but annually very wet, parts of the tropics, low-water availability in the short dry season leads to a semi-deciduous forest, one which is also highly susceptible to nutrient loss from leaching in the long wet season. Patterns in litterfall were compared between forest with low (LEM) and high (HEM) abundances of ectomycorrhizal trees in Korup National Park, Cameroon, over 26 months in 1990–92. Leaf litter was sorted into 26 abundant species which included six ectomycorrhizal species, and of these three were the large grove-forming trees Microberlinia bisulcata, Tetraberlinia bifoliolata and Tetraberlinia moreliana. Larger-tree species shed their leaves with pronounced peaks in the dry season, whereas other species had either weaker dependence, showed several peaks per year, or were wet-season shedders. Although total annual litterfall differed little between forest types, in the HEM forest (dominated by M. bisulcata) the dry-season peak was more pronounced and earlier than that in the LEMforest. Species differed greatly in their mean leaf litterfall nutrient concentrations, with an approx. twofold range for nitrogen and phosphorus, and 2.5–3.5-fold for potassium, magnesium and calcium. In the dry season, LEM and HEM litter showed similar declines in P and N concentration, and increases in K and Mg; some species, especially M. bisculcata, showed strong dry-wet season differences. The concentration of P (but not N) was higher in the leaf litter of ectomycorrhizal than nonectomycorrhizal species. Retranslocation of N and P was lower among the ectomycorrhizal than nonectomycorrhizal species by approx. twofold. It is suggested that, within ectomycorrhizal groves on this soil low in P, a fast decomposition rate with minimal loss of mineralized P is possible due to the relatively high litter P not limiting the cycle at this stage, combined with an efficient recapture of released P by the surface organic layer of ectomycorrhizas and fine roots. This points to a feedback between two essential controlling steps (retranslocation and mineralization) in a tropical rain forest ecosystem dominated by ectomycorrhizal trees.

The palaeolimnology of Soppensee (Central Switzerlabnd), as evidenced by diatom, pollen, and fossil-pigment analyses

The development of Soppensee (Central Switzerland, 596 m a.s.l.) has been reconstructed using algal remains such as diatoms, chlorophytes and fossil pigments, as well as the pollen and spores of macrophytes. Sediment accumulation in Soppensee began at the end of the last glacial period, approximately 15,000 yrs ago. During the Oldest Dryas biozone (> 12,700 radiocarbon yrs B.P.) the lake had low primary productivity. After reforestation with birch and later pine, around 12,700 B.P., phases of summer anoxia occurred in the lake. These anoxic conditions were most probably caused by additional carbon input from the catchment, as well as longer phases of stratification due to reduced wind exposure caused by the sheltering effect of increased tree cover. From the Younger Dryas biozone (10,800 to 10,000 radiocarbon yrs B.P.) onwards, Soppensee became meromictic for several millennia.

Does proximity to conspecific adults influence the establishment of ectomycorrhizal trees in rain forest?

Three ectomycorrhizal legume trees, Microberlinia bisulcata, Tetraberlinia bifoliolata and T. moreliana, form discrete groves in the southern part of Korup National Park, in southwest Cameroon and contribute c. 45–70% of stand basal area locally in a matrix of otherwise species-rich arbuscular mycorrhizal forest. A transplant experiment was performed to assess the importance of ectomycorrhizal infection associated with proximity to parents in seedling establishment of the grove-forming species. Nonectomycorrhizal seedlings of the three species were transplanted into plots of two forest types, one of high (HEM, within-grove) and one of very low (LEM, outside the grove) abundance of all three species as adult trees. For two species (T. moreliana and M. bisulcata) there was no difference in survival over 16 months, but for the third (T. bifoliolata) survival was best in HEM forest, and correlated with the basal area of adult trees of ectomycorrhizal species. Only one species (T. moreliana) increased in biomass over the experimental period; the others declined. There was no effect of forest type on overall growth of any species, but the survivors of two (T. moreliana and M. bisulcata) had heavier stems in the HEM forest. Differences in survival and growth of transplants between the three species were in accord with the ecology of the species as inferred from the frequency distributions of adult tree size in the forest. Seedlings became infected with ectomycorrhizas in both forest types; where there was a difference in extent of infection (T. moreliana) this was not related to survival or growth; and where there was a difference in survival (T. bifoliolata) this was not related to extent of infection. These results confirm that mycorrhizal inoculum associated with conspecific adults is neither a prerequisite nor a guarantee of seedling establishment, but indicates that in some circumstances there might be benefits of being close to parents. Further research is required to unravel the complexities of ectomycorrhizal community structure in this spatially and temporally heterogeneous forest, and to clarify the extent to which the various hosts share ectomycorrhizal partners.

Cutting Arcs For Torus Links And Trees

Among all torus links, we characterise those arising as links of simple plane curve singularities by the property that their fibre surfaces admit only a finite number of cutting arcs that preserve fibredness. The same property allows a characterisation of Coxeter-Dynkin trees (i.e., An , Dn , E6 , E7 and E8 ) among all positive tree-like Hopf plumbings.

The recent eutrophication of Baldeggersee (Switzerland) as assessed by fossil diatom assemblages

Diatom analyses with an annual resolution were carried out on varves of the hypertrophic Baldeggersee (Central Swiss Plateau) for the timespan ad 1885 to 1993. They reveal seven major changes in the dominant planktonic diatoms. As a result of progressive nutrient enrichment, Baldeggersee changed in the 1910s from a Cyclotella to a Tabellaria fenestrata dominated assemblage, and eventually in the 1950s to a Stephanodiscus parvus dominated diatom assemblage. The timing and direction of diatom-assemblage changes in the varved sediment compare well with sedimentological and limnological observations. Partitioning of the variance in the diatom data revealed that TP is a stronger explanatory variable than temperature for these changes. A diatom-inferred total phosphorus (TP) reconstruction indicates three major steps in eutrophication, occurring at 1909, the mid-1950s and the mid-1970s. Comparison with TP measurements in the water column demonstrates that the diatom-TP inference model used is able to hindcast past TP concentrations reliably. The major steps in eutrophication led to decreases in diatom diversity and also resulted in a progressive increase of calcite grain-size. The lake restoration programme established since 1982 shows no direct impact on the composition of the diatom assemblages. However, the decrease in phosphorus loads since the mid-1970s is reflected in the diatom assemblages and in decreasing diatom-inferred TP concentrations.

Development and Light Response of Leaves of Metasequoia and Close Relatives

Metasequoia glyptostroboides is a useful nearest living relative (NLR) of the Eocene fossil Metasequoia. Research on modern Metasequoia might give us some clues about its fossil counterpart. During this study the leaf anatomy of Metasequoia, Glyptostrobus, Sequoia and Taxodium was investigated with light microscopy and transmission electron microscopy. Metasequoia exhibits several characteristics of typical sciaphilic plants, such as slightly arched outer cell walls in the adaxial epidermal cells, strongly arched outer cell walls in the abaxial epidermal cells, mesophyll composed of spongy cells, chloroplasts with well-developed grana not only in mesophyll cells but in both the adaxial and abaxial epidermis. Based on comparison of leaf morphology and anatomy, we conclude that Metasequoia is best adapted to low light intensities, Sequoia and Taxodium are intermediate, and Glyptostrobus is adapted to higher light intensities. The effects of light intensity on mesophyll plastids of Metasequoia leaves were studied with trees grown under different light intensities. Metasequoia had the ability to synthesize chlorophyll under complete darkness and was stressed under high light. These characteristics would provide adaptive advantages for Metasequoia to adapt to low intensity, low angle, polar light at their Eocene high latitude paleoenvironments, particularly during the polar spring when light levels are exceedingly low. It provides evidence to explain why Metasequoia was the dominant tree species in Eocene high latitudes. The thesis is written as an article to be submitted to the American Journal of Botany.