880 resultados para Forecasting and replenishment (CPFR)


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For fully three decades there has been an almost steady decline in Maryland's oyster production... are alarmed for its future. Reasons for decline, data supplied,importance of brood oysters and clutch replenishment. Problems of warm weather and bacterial activity as well as tongs grinding the bottom. Conflicts in canning of early season oysters and late season crops like tomatoes. (PDF contains 16 pages)

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The health of the oceans and people are inextricably linked. For many years we focused research and policy on anthropogenic impacts to oceans and coasts. Recently we have started to think about how the health of the oceans affects us. In response to the Oceans and Human Health Act of 2004, a NOAA initiative was created to explore the “One Health” of the oceans and coasts. The Center of Excellence in Oceans and Human Health at Hollings Marine Laboratory (HML) is one of three Centers dedicated to understanding the connections and forecasting changes in ocean and coastal health and human health. The Center at HML is developing new tools and approaches, including sentinel habitats and sentinel species, to evaluate linkages between ecological process and human health and wellbeing. The results provide environmental and public health managers, policy-makers and communities forecasts and assessments to improve ecosystem-based management that protects health and mitigates risks for the oceans, coasts and people.(PDF contains 4 pages)

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The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a pattern of intense rainfall and associated planetary-scale circulations in the tropical atmosphere, with a recurrence interval of 30-90 days. Although the MJO was first discovered 40 years ago, it is still a challenge to simulate the MJO in general circulation models (GCMs), and even with simple models it is difficult to agree on the basic mechanisms. This deficiency is mainly due to our poor understanding of moist convection—deep cumulus clouds and thunderstorms, which occur at scales that are smaller than the resolution elements of the GCMs. Moist convection is the most important mechanism for transporting energy from the ocean to the atmosphere. Success in simulating the MJO will improve our understanding of moist convection and thereby improve weather and climate forecasting.

We address this fundamental subject by analyzing observational datasets, constructing a hierarchy of numerical models, and developing theories. Parameters of the models are taken from observation, and the simulated MJO fits the data without further adjustments. The major findings include: 1) the MJO may be an ensemble of convection events linked together by small-scale high-frequency inertia-gravity waves; 2) the eastward propagation of the MJO is determined by the difference between the eastward and westward phase speeds of the waves; 3) the planetary scale of the MJO is the length over which temperature anomalies can be effectively smoothed by gravity waves; 4) the strength of the MJO increases with the typical strength of convection, which increases in a warming climate; 5) the horizontal scale of the MJO increases with the spatial frequency of convection; and 6) triggered convection, where potential energy accumulates until a threshold is reached, is important in simulating the MJO. Our findings challenge previous paradigms, which consider the MJO as a large-scale mode, and point to ways for improving the climate models.

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This project analyses the influence of the futures market on middle and low income countries. In it, I attempt to show that investments made by large investment funds in this market, as well as by certain pension plans, bring major consequences whose effects are more evident in less developed countries. The cornerstones of the work are as follows; to attempt to see the existing relationship between the commodity futures market and its underlying assets; analysing products such as wheat, rice and corn in-depth, because these are the most basic foodstuffs at a global level; to determine how an increase in trading in these markets can affect the lives of people in the poorest countries; to analyse investor concern regarding the consequences that their investments may have. Throughout the project we will see how large speculators use production forecasting models to determine the shortage of a commodity in order to take a position in the futures market to profit from it. In addition we will see how an increase in trading in this market causes an increase in the price of the underlying asset in the spot market. As for investor concern, I can say it is negligible, but the idea of running pension plans or investment funds that follow some social criteria has been welcomed by those interviewed, which makes me think that different legislation is possible. This legislation will only come into existence if it is demanded by the people. A fact that now becomes complicated because without a minimum financial basis, they cannot even know how the large investment funds trade with hunger in the world. The day when most people understand how large speculators profit from famine will be the day to put pressure on governments to begin to put limits on speculation. This makes financial awareness necessary in order to achieve a curb in excessive speculation.

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We review the progress made in the emerging field of coastal seascape ecology, i.e. the application of landscape ecology concepts and techniques to the coastal marine environment. Since the early 1990s, the landscape ecology approach has been applied in several coastal subtidal and intertidal biogenic habitats across a range of spatial scales. Emerging evidence indicates that animals in these seascapes respond to the structure of patches and patch mosaics in different ways and at different spatial scales, yet we still know very little about the ecological significance of these relationships and the consequences of change in seascape patterning for ecosystem functioning and overall biodiversity. Ecological interactions that occur within patches and among different types of patches (or seascapes) are likely to be critically important in maintaining primary and secondary production, trophic transfer, biodiversity, coastal protection, and supporting a wealth of ecosystem goods and services. We review faunal responses to patch and seascape structure, including effects of fragmentation on 5 focal habitats: seagrass meadows, salt marshes, coral reefs, mangrove forests, and oyster reefs. Extrapolating and generalizing spatial relationships between ecological patterns and processes across scales remains a significant challenge, and we show that there are major gaps in our understanding of these relationships. Filling these gaps will be crucial for managing and responding to an inevitably changing coastal environment. We show that critical ecological thresholds exist in the structural patterning of biogenic ecosystems that, when exceeded, cause abrupt shifts in the distribution and abundance of organisms. A better understanding of faunal–seascape relationships, including the identifications of threshold effects, is urgently needed to support the development of more effective and holistic management actions in restoration, site prioritization, and forecasting the impacts of environmental change.

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Moving ecosystem modeling from research to applications and operations has direct management relevance and will be integral to achieving the water quality and living resource goals of the 2010 Chesapeake Bay Executive Order. Yet despite decades of ecosystem modeling efforts of linking climate to water quality, plankton and fish, ecological models are rarely taken to the operational phase. In an effort to promote operational ecosystem modeling and ecological forecasting in Chesapeake Bay, a meeting was convened on this topic at the 2010 Chesapeake Modeling Symposium (May, 10-11). These presentations show that tremendous progress has been made over the last five years toward the development of operational ecological forecasting models, and that efforts in Chesapeake Bay are leading the way nationally. Ecological forecasts predict the impacts of chemical, biological, and physical changes on ecosystems, ecosystem components, and people. They have great potential to educate and inform not only ecosystem management, but also the outlook and opinion of the general public, for whom we manage coastal ecosystems. In the context of the Chesapeake Bay Executive Order, ecological forecasting can be used to identify favorable restoration sites, predict which sites and species will be viable under various climate scenarios, and predict the impact of a restoration project on water quality.

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We examined movement patterns of sportfish that were tagged in the northern Indian River Lagoon, Florida, between 1990 and 1999 to assess the degree of fish exchange between an estuarine no-take zone (NTZ) and surrounding waters. The tagged f ish were from seven species: red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus); black drum (Pogonias cromis); sheepshead (Archosargus probatocephalus); common snook (Centropomus undecimalis); spotted seatrout (Cynoscion nebulosus); bull shark (Carcharhinus leucas); and crevalle jack (Caranx hippos). A total of 403 tagged fish were recaptured during the study period, including 65 individuals that emigrated from the NTZ and 16 individuals that immigrated into the NTZ from surrounding waters of the lagoon. Migration distances between the original tagging location and the sites where emigrating fish were recaptured were from 0 to 150 km, and these migration distances appeared to be influenced by the proximity of the NTZ to spawning areas or other habitats that are important to specific life-history stages of individual species. Fish that immigrated into the NTZ moved distances ranging from approximately 10 to 75 km. Recapture rates for sportfish species that migrated across the NTZ boundary suggested that more individuals may move into the protected habitats than move out. These data demonstrated that although this estuarine no-take reserve can protect species from fishing, it may also serve to extract exploitable individuals from surrounding fisheries; therefore, if the no-take reserve does function to replenish surrounding fisheries, then increased egg production and larval export may be more important mechanisms of replenishment than the spillover of excess adults from the reserve into fishable areas.

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EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The 1988 summer drought over much of the United States is described in terms of hemispheric mid-tropospheric flow patterns, temperature and precipitation anomalies, and sea surface temperature patterns. This drought was similar to earlier Great Plains droughts, although spatially more extensive than most. Three attempts to predict this drought from antecedent spring were moderately successful, though no one anticipated its severity and extent. ... A modified barotropic model iterating from a mean summer estimate of seasonal forcing from the May mid-tropospheric height pattern was reasonably successful in forecasting the drought. Sea surface temperature indications show that cold water (La Niña) along the equator subsequent to the 1987 El Niño, while contributory, cannot be considered a principal cause of the drought, since earlier cold water episodes did not produce drought, and other drought episodes occurred in the absence of cold equatorial waters.

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The paper presents some results of the research programs which had been performed during 1996-1999 (“Studying of river-sea interaction in the mouth of Tien river” and KHCN.06.08). Based on these results the morphological schemes of the shore areas from Tiengiang to Camau were compiled; causes and mechanics of accumulation and erosion were also determined. These results may be used as scientific basis for forecasting the development of the shoreline, it will contribute to the management, protection and reasonable exploitation the shore areas.