The empirical analysis of cigarette tax avoidance and illicit trade in Vietnam, 1998-2010.

Illicit trade carries the potential to magnify existing tobacco-related health care costs through increased availability of untaxed and inexpensive cigarettes. What is known with respect to the magnitude of illicit trade for Vietnam is produced primarily by the industry, and methodologies are typically opaque. Independent assessment of the illicit cigarette trade in Vietnam is vital to tobacco control policy. This paper measures the magnitude of illicit cigarette trade for Vietnam between 1998 and 2010 using two methods, discrepancies between legitimate domestic cigarette sales and domestic tobacco consumption estimated from surveys, and trade discrepancies as recorded by Vietnam and trade partners. The results indicate that Vietnam likely experienced net smuggling in during the period studied. With the inclusion of adjustments for survey respondent under-reporting, inward illicit trade likely occurred in three of the four years for which surveys were available. Discrepancies in trade records indicate that the value of smuggled cigarettes into Vietnam ranges from $100 million to $300 million between 2000 and 2010 and that these cigarettes primarily originate in Singapore, Hong Kong, Macao, Malaysia, and Australia. Notable differences in trends over time exist between the two methods, but by comparison, the industry estimates consistently place the magnitude of illicit trade at the upper bounds of what this study shows. The unavailability of annual, survey-based estimates of consumption may obscure the true, annual trend over time. Second, as surveys changed over time, estimates relying on them may be inconsistent with one another. Finally, these two methods measure different components of illicit trade, specifically consumption of illicit cigarettes regardless of origin and smuggling of cigarettes into a particular market. However, absent a gold standard, comparisons of different approaches to illicit trade measurement serve efforts to refine and improve measurement approaches and estimates.

Public goods and procreation.

Procreation is the ultimate public goods problem. Each new child affects the welfare of many other people, and some (but not all) children produce uncompensated value that future people will enjoy. This essay addresses challenges that arise if we think of procreation and parenting as public goods. These include whether individual choices are likely to lead to a socially desirable outcome, and whether changes in laws, social norms, or access to genetic engineering and embryo selection might improve the aggregate outcome of our reproductive choices.

Introduction: The apparel industry and North American economic integration

The economic and social consequences of international trade agreements have become a major area of inquiry in development studies in recent years. As evidenced by the energetic protests surrounding the Seattle meeting of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December 1999 and the controversy about China's admission to the WTO, such agreements have also become a focus of political conflict in both the developed and developing countries. At issue are questions of job gains and job losses in different regions, prices paid by consumers, acceptable standards for wages and working conditions in transnational manufacturing industries, and the quality of the environment. All these concerns have arisen with regard to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and can be addressed through an examination of changes in the dynamics of the apparel industry in the post-NAFTA period.1 In this book, we examine the evolution of the apparel industry in North America in order to address some of these questions as they pertain to North America, with an eye toward the broader implications of our findings. We also consider the countries of the Caribbean Basin and Central America, whose textile and apparel goods are now allowed to enter the U.S. market on the same basis as those from Canada and Mexico (Odessey 2000). © 2009 by Temple University Press. All rights reserved.

Empirical measurement of illicit tobacco trade in the Philippines.

Cigarette smuggling reduces the price of cigarettes, thwarts youth access restrictions, reduces government revenue, and undercuts the ability of taxes to reduce consumption. The tobacco industry often opposes increases to tobacco taxes on the claim that greater taxes induce more smuggling. To date, little is known about the magnitude of smuggling in the Philippines. his information is necessary to effectively address illicit trade and to measure the impacts of tax changes and the introduction of secure tax markings on illicit trade. This study employs two gap discrepancy methods to estimate the magnitude of illicit trade in cigarettes for the Philippines between 1994 and 2009. First, domestic consumption is compared with tax-paid sales to measure the consumption of illicit cigarettes. Second, imports recorded by the Philippines are compared with exports to the Philippines by trade partners to measure smuggling. Domestic consumption fell short of tax-paid sales for all survey years. The magnitude of these differences and a comparison with a prevalence survey for 2009 suggest a high level of survey under-reporting of smoking. In the late 1990s and the mid 2000s, the Philippines experienced two sharp declines in trade discrepancies, from a high of $750 million in 1995 to a low of $133.7 million in 2008. Discrepancies composed more than one-third of the domestic market in 1995, but only 10 percent in 2009. Hong Kong, Singapore, and China together account for more than 80 percent of the cumulative discrepancies over the period and 74 percent of the discrepancy in 2009. The presence of large discrepancies supports the need to implement an effective tax marking and tobacco track and trace system to reduce illicit trade and support tax collection. The absence of a relation between tax changes and smuggling suggests that potential increases in the excise tax should not be discouraged by illicit trade. Finally, the identification of specific trade partners as primary sources for illicit trade may facilitate targeted efforts in cooperation with these governments to reduce illicit trade.

Earliness penalties on a single machine subject to precedence constraints: SLK due date assignment

The paper considers the single machine due date assignment and scheduling problems with n jobs in which the due dates are to be obtained from the processing times by adding a positive slack q. A schedule is feasible if there are no tardy jobs and the job sequence respects given precedence constraints. The value of q is chosen so as to minimize a function ϕ(F,q) which is non-decreasing in each of its arguments, where F is a certain non-decreasing earliness penalty function. Once q is chosen or fixed, the corresponding scheduling problem is to find a feasible schedule with the minimum value of function F. In the case of arbitrary precedence constraints the problems under consideration are shown to be NP-hard in the strong sense even for F being total earliness. If the precedence constraints are defined by a series-parallel graph, both scheduling and due date assignment problems are proved solvable in time, provided that F is either the sum of linear functions or the sum of exponential functions. The running time of the algorithms can be reduced to if the jobs are independent. Scope and purpose We consider the single machine due date assignment and scheduling problems and design fast algorithms for their solution under a wide range of assumptions. The problems under consideration arise in production planning when the management is faced with a problem of setting the realistic due dates for a number of orders. The due dates of the orders are determined by increasing the time needed for their fulfillment by a common positive slack. If the slack is set to be large enough, the due dates can be easily maintained, thereby producing a good image of the firm. This, however, may result in the substantial holding cost of the finished products before they are brought to the customer. The objective is to explore the trade-off between the size of the slack and the arising holding costs for the early orders.

The 2001 World Trade Centre evacuation

The WTC evacuation of 11 September 2001 provides an unrepeatable opportunity to probe into and understand the very nature of evacuation dynamics and with this improved understanding, contribute to the design of safer, more evacuation efficient, yet highly functional, high rise buildings. Following 9/11 the Fire Safety Engineering Group (FSEG) of the University of Greenwich embarked on a study of survivor experiences from the WTC Twin Towers evacuation. The experiences were collected from published accounts appearing in the print and electronic mass media and are stored in a relational data base specifically developed for this purpose. Using these accounts and other available sources of information FSEG also undertook a series of numerical simulations of the WTC North Tower. This paper represents an overview of the results from both studies.

Approximating the evacuation of the World Trade Center North Tower using computer simulation

This article concerns an investigation of the full scale evacuation of a building with a configuration similar to that of the World Trade Center (WTC) North Tower using computer simulation. A range of evacuation scenarios is explored in order to better understand the evacuation of the WTC on 11 September 2001. The analysis makes use of response time data derived from a study of published WTC survivor accounts. Geometric details of the building are obtained from architects' plans while the total building population used in the scenarios is based on estimates produced by the National Institute of Standards and Technology formal investigation into the evacuation. This paper attempts to approximate the events of 11 September 2001 and pursue several `what if' questions concerning the evacuation. In particular, the study explores the likely outcome had a single staircase survived intact from top to bottom. More generally, this paper explores issues associated with the practical limits of building size that can be expected to be efficiently evacuated using stairs alone.

Trade unions, civil society organisations and health reforms

This article provides an analysis of resistance to neoliberalism and commodification in the public healthcare sector as seen from a trade union perspective. It uses recent research on social-movement unionism and new labour internationalism to structure a series of case studies examining resistance to different dimensions of healthcare commodification in four countries. The range of alliances trade unions are making do not fit tidily into one model, but give insights into the movement elements of trade unionism. This dimension must be strengthened, but can also be in tension with collective bargaining and other institutional processes. How to constantly reconcile these different positions is the future challenge facing trade unions.

Developing global trade union "space"

International unions and international solidarity strategies have been changing partly as a response to changes in the global economy. Global union federations have played an important role in expanding communication and developing alliances with other social movements. One of the issues facing trade unions wanting to be effective at an international level is to what extent national concerns can inform and even be transcended by international perspectives. Proposals for studying the global labor force "horizontally", that is, according to different categories and forms of work rather than on a nation-by-nation basis, demonstrates a recognition of global- national dimensions (Harrod and O'Brien 2002:49). This paper will discuss the development of a global trade union "space", which enables national and global unions to work together effectively, using a series of case studies drawn from the experience of global and European public service unions.