Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.

The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

Slip complexity in earthquake fault models.

We summarize studies of earthquake fault models that give rise to slip complexities like those in natural earthquakes. For models of smooth faults between elastically deformable continua, it is critical that the friction laws involve a characteristic distance for slip weakening or evolution of surface state. That results in a finite nucleation size, or coherent slip patch size, h*. Models of smooth faults, using numerical cell size properly small compared to h*, show periodic response or complex and apparently chaotic histories of large events but have not been found to show small event complexity like the self-similar (power law) Gutenberg-Richter frequency-size statistics. This conclusion is supported in the present paper by fully inertial elastodynamic modeling of earthquake sequences. In contrast, some models of locally heterogeneous faults with quasi-independent fault segments, represented approximately by simulations with cell size larger than h* so that the model becomes "inherently discrete," do show small event complexity of the Gutenberg-Richter type. Models based on classical friction laws without a weakening length scale or for which the numerical procedure imposes an abrupt strength drop at the onset of slip have h* = 0 and hence always fall into the inherently discrete class. We suggest that the small-event complexity that some such models show will not survive regularization of the constitutive description, by inclusion of an appropriate length scale leading to a finite h*, and a corresponding reduction of numerical grid size.

The organization of seismicity on fault networks.

Although models of homogeneous faults develop seismicity that has a Gutenberg-Richter distribution, this is only a transient state that is followed by events that are strongly influenced by the nature of the boundaries. Models with geometrical inhomogeneities of fracture thresholds can limit the sizes of earthquakes but now favor the characteristic earthquake model for large earthquakes. The character of the seismicity is extremely sensitive to distributions of inhomogeneities, suggesting that statistical rules for large earthquakes in one region may not be applicable to large earthquakes in another region. Model simulations on simple networks of faults with inhomogeneities of threshold develop episodes of lacunarity on all members of the network. There is no validity to the popular assumption that the average rate of slip on individual faults is a constant. Intermediate term precursory activity such as local quiescence and increases in intermediate-magnitude activity at long range are simulated well by the assumption that strong weakening of faults by injection of fluids and weakening of asperities on inhomogeneous models of fault networks is the dominant process; the heat flow paradox, the orientation of the stress field, and the low average stress drop in some earthquakes are understood in terms of the asperity model of inhomogeneous faulting.

Geometric incompatibility in a fault system.

Interdependence between geometry of a fault system, its kinematics, and seismicity is investigated. Quantitative measure is introduced for inconsistency between a fixed configuration of faults and the slip rates on each fault. This measure, named geometric incompatibility (G), depicts summarily the instability near the fault junctions: their divergence or convergence ("unlocking" or "locking up") and accumulation of stress and deformations. Accordingly, the changes in G are connected with dynamics of seismicity. Apart from geometric incompatibility, we consider deviation K from well-known Saint Venant condition of kinematic compatibility. This deviation depicts summarily unaccounted stress and strain accumulation in the region and/or internal inconsistencies in a reconstruction of block- and fault system (its geometry and movements). The estimates of G and K provide a useful tool for bringing together the data on different types of movement in a fault system. An analog of Stokes formula is found that allows determination of the total values of G and K in a region from the data on its boundary. The phenomenon of geometric incompatibility implies that nucleation of strong earthquakes is to large extent controlled by processes near fault junctions. The junctions that have been locked up may act as transient asperities, and unlocked junctions may act as transient weakest links. Tentative estimates of K and G are made for each end of the Big Bend of the San Andreas fault system in Southern California. Recent strong earthquakes Landers (1992, M = 7.3) and Northridge (1994, M = 6.7) both reduced K but had opposite impact on G: Landers unlocked the area, whereas Northridge locked it up again.

Multiwavelength study of quiescent states of MrK 421 with unprecedented hard x-Ray coverage provided by NuStar in 2013

We present coordinated multiwavelength observations of the bright, nearby BL Lacertae object Mrk 421 taken in 2013 January–March, involving GASP-WEBT, Swift, NuSTAR, Fermi-LAT, MAGIC, VERITAS, and other collaborations and instruments, providing data from radio to very high energy (VHE) γ-ray bands. NuSTAR yielded previously unattainable sensitivity in the 3–79 keV range, revealing that the spectrum softens when the source is dimmer until the X-ray spectral shape saturates into a steep G » 3 power law, with no evidence for an exponential cutoff or additional hard components up "aprox" 80keV. For the first time, we observed both the synchrotron and the inverse-Compton peaks of the spectral energy distribution (SED) simultaneously shifted to frequencies below the typical quiescent state by an order of magnitude. The fractional variability as a function of photon energy shows a double-bump structure that relates to the two bumps of the broadband SED. In each bump, the variability increases with energy, which, in the framework of the synchrotron self-Compton model, implies that the electrons with higher energies are more variable. The measured multi band variability, the significant X-ray-toVHE correlation down to some of the lowest fluxes ever observed in both bands, the lack of correlation between optical/UV and X-ray flux, the low degree of polarization and its significant (random) variations, the short estimated electron cooling time, and the significantly longer variability timescale observed in the NuSTAR light curves point toward in situ electron acceleration and suggest that there are multiple compact regions contributing to the broadband emission of Mrk 421 during low-activity states.

Genetically Modified Food in the US and the UK: proponents, dissenters and media coverage

This research is a qualitative study examining the communication surrounding the issue of genetically modified food in the UK and the UK from October, 2011 through September, 2012. Material from biotechnology industry organizations, industry-funded non-profits, groups campaigning against the continued use of the technology, and mainstream media coverage of the issue in both countries during this time was examined using thematic analysis. The issue is analyzed through the lenses of Herman and Chomsky's propaganda model, agenda building and framing theory. The research finds support for agenda building as well as a modernized understanding of the propaganda model, which the researcher argues are complementary theories.

Fault location in power distribution networks with distributed generation.

This research presents the development and implementation of fault location algorithms in power distribution networks with distributed generation units installed along their feeders. The proposed algorithms are capable of locating the fault based on voltage and current signals recorded by intelligent electronic devices installed at the end of the feeder sections, information to compute the loads connected to these feeders and their electric characteristics, and the operating status of the network. In addition, this work presents the study of analytical models of distributed generation and load technologies that could contribute to the performance of the proposed fault location algorithms. The validation of the algorithms was based on computer simulations using network models implemented in ATP, whereas the algorithms were implemented in MATLAB.

Fail-Safe Testing of Web Applications

This dissertation introduces an approach to generate tests to test fail-safe behavior for web applications. We apply the approach to a commercial web application. We build models for both behavioral and mitigation requirements. We create mitigation tests from an existing functional black box test suite by determining failure type and points of failure in the test suite and weaving required mitigation based on weaving rules to generate a test suite that tests proper mitigation of failures. A genetic algorithm (GA) is used to determine points of failure and type of failure that needs to be tested. Mitigation test paths are woven into the behavioral test at the point of failure based on failure specific weaving rules. A simulator was developed to evaluate choice of parameters for the genetic algorithm. We showed how to tune the fitness function and performed tuning experiments for GA to determine what values to use for exploration weight and prospecting weight. We found that higher defect densities make prospecting and mining more successful, while lower mitigation defect densities need more exploration. We compare efficiency and effectiveness of the approach. First, the GA approach is compared to random selection. The results show that the GA performance was better than random selection and that the approach was robust when the search space increased. Second, we compare the GA against four coverage criteria. The results of comparison show that test requirements generated by a genetic algorithm (GA) are more efficient than three of the four coverage criteria for large search spaces. They are equally effective. For small search spaces, the genetic algorithm is less effective than three of the four coverage criteria. The fourth coverage criteria is too weak and unable to find all defects in almost all cases. We also present a large case study of a mortgage system at one of our industrial partners and show how we formalize the approach. We evaluate the use of a GA to create test requirements. The evaluation includes choice of initial population, multiplicity of runs and a discussion of the cost of evaluating fitness. Finally, we build a selective regression testing approach based on types of changes (add, delete, or modify) that could occur in the behavioral model, the fault model, the mitigation models, the weaving rules, and the state-event matrix. We provide a systematic method by showing the formalization steps for each type of change to the various models.

Knowledge and attitudes of Spanish adolescent girls towards human papillomavirus infection: where to intervene to improve vaccination coverage

Background: HPV vaccine coverage is far from ideal in Valencia, Spain, and this could be partially related to the low knowledge about the disease and the vaccine, therefore we assessed these, as well as the attitude towards vaccination in adolescent girls, and tried to identify independently associated factors that could potentially be modified by an intervention in order to increase vaccine coverage. Methods: A cross sectional study was conducted in a random selection of schools of the Spanish region of Valencia. We asked mothers of 1278 girls, who should have been vaccinated in the 2011 campaign, for informed consent. Those that accepted their daughters’ participation, a questionnaire regarding the Knowledge of HPV infection and vaccine was passed to the girls in the school. Results: 833 mothers (65.1%) accepted participation. All their daughters’ responded the questionnaire. Of those, 89.9% had heard about HPV and they associated it to cervical cancer. Only 14% related it to other problems like genital warts. The knowledge score of the girls who had heard about HPV was 6.1/10. Knowledge was unrelated to the number of contacts with the health system (Pediatrician or nurse), and positively correlated with the discussions with classmates about the vaccine. Adolescents Spanish in origin or with an older sister vaccinated, had higher punctuation. 67% of the girls thought that the vaccine prevented cancer, and 22.6% felt that although prevented cancer the vaccine had important safety problems. 6.4% of the girls rejected the vaccine for safety problems or for not considering themselves at risk of infection. 71.5% of the girls had received at least one vaccine dose. Vaccinated girls scored higher knowledge (p = 0.05). Conclusion: Knowledge about HPV infection and vaccine was fair in adolescents of Valencia, and is independent to the number of contacts with the health system, it is however correlated to the conversations about the vaccine with their peers and the vaccination status. An action to improve HPV knowledge through health providers might increase vaccine coverage in the adolescents.

Barriers and facilitators to effective coverage of Intimate Partner Violence services for immigrant women in Spain

Objective: To explore service providers’ perceptions in order to identify barriers and facilitators to effective coverage of Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) services for immigrant women in Spain, according to the different categories proposed in Tanahashi's model of effective coverage. Methods: A qualitative study based on 29 in-depth personal interviews and four group interviews with a total of 43 professionals working in public services (social and health-care services, women's refuges, the police force, the judiciary) and NGOs in Barcelona, Madrid, Valencia and Alicante (Spain) in 2011. Findings: Current IPV services in Spain partially fail in their coverage of abused immigrant women due to barriers of (i) availability, such as the inexistence of culturally appropriate services; (ii) accessibility, as having a residence permit is a prerequisite for women's access to different services and rights; (iii) acceptability, such as women's lack of confidence in the effectiveness of services; and (iv) effectiveness, for example, lack of specific training among professionals on the issues of IPV and immigration. However, interviewees also identified facilitators, such as the enabling environment promoted by the Spanish Law on Gender-Based Violence (1/2004), and the impetus it has provided for the development of other specific legislative tools to address IPV in immigrant populations in Spain (availability, accessibility and effectiveness). Conclusion: Whilst not dismissing cultural barriers, aspects related to service structure are identified by providers as the main barriers and facilitators to immigrant women use of IPV services. Despite noteworthy achievements, improvements are still required in terms of mainstreaming assistance tailored to immigrant women's needs in IPV policies and services.

Erosion of universal health coverage in Spain

Whereas the recent UN resolution urges governments to accelerate progress towards universal access to affordable and quality health-care services, the Spanish Government, bypassing the parliamentary procedure, enacted a Royal Decree to limit access to free services at the point of delivery for all-undermining the principle of universal coverage. Spanish health and social service budgets have been subjected to large cuts (13,7% in 2012 and 16,2% in 2013) with some regions imposing additional budget cuts.

Coverage and invariance for the biological control of pests in mediterranean greenhouses

A major problem related to the treatment of ecosystems is that they have no available mathematical formalization. This implies that many of their properties are not presented as short, rigorous modalities, but rather as long expressions which, from a biological standpoint, totally capture the significance of the property, but which have the disadvantage of not being sufficiently manageable, from a mathematical standpoint. The interpretation of ecosystems through networks allows us to employ the concepts of coverage and invariance alongside other related concepts. The latter will allow us to present the two most important relations in an ecosystem – predator–prey and competition – in a different way. Biological control, defined as “the use of living organisms, their resources or their products to prevent or reduce loss or damage caused by pests”, is now considered the environmentally safest and most economically advantageous method of pest control (van Lenteren, 2011). A guild includes all those organisms that share a common food resource (Polis et al., 1989), which in the context of biological control means all the natural enemies of a given pest. There are several types of intraguild interactions, but the one that has received most research attention is intraguild predation, which occurs when two organisms share the same prey while at the same time participating in some kind of trophic interaction. However, this is not the only intraguild relationship possible, and studies are now being conducted on others, such as oviposition deterrence. In this article, we apply the developed concepts of structural functions, coverage, invariant sets, etc. (Lloret et al., 1998, Esteve and Lloret, 2006a, Esteve and Lloret, 2006b and Esteve and Lloret, 2007) to a tritrophic system that includes aphids, one of the most damaging pests and a current bottleneck for the success of biological control in Mediterranean greenhouses.

Coverage and invariability in fuzzy systems

This paper presents a new complex system systemic. Here, we are working in a fuzzy environment, so we have to adapt all the previous concepts and results that were obtained in a non-fuzzy environment, for this fuzzy case. The direct and indirect influences between variables will provide the basis for obtaining fuzzy and/or non-fuzzy relationships, so that the concepts of coverage and invariability between sets of variables will appear naturally. These two concepts and their interconnections will be analyzed from the viewpoint of algebraic properties of inclusion, union and intersection (fuzzy and non-fuzzy), and also for the loop concept, which, as we shall see, will be of special importance.

3D geometry of growth strata in a fault-propagation fold: insights into space–time evolution of the Crevillente Fault (Abanilla-Alicante sector), Betic Cordillera, Spain

This work presents a 3D geometric model of growth strata cropping out in a fault-propagation fold associated with the Crevillente Fault (Abanilla-Alicante sector) from the Bajo Segura Basin (eastern Betic Cordillera, southern Spain). The analysis of this 3D model enables us to unravel the along-strike and along-section variations of the growth strata, providing constraints to assess the fold development, and hence, the fault kinematic evolution in space and time. We postulate that the observed along-strike dip variations are related to lateral variation in fault displacement. Along-section variations of the progressive unconformity opening angles indicate greater fault slip in the upper Tortonian–Messinian time span; from the Messinian on, quantitative analysis of the unconformity indicate a constant or lower tectonic activity of the Crevillente Fault (Abanilla-Alicante sector); the minor abundance of striated pebbles in the Pliocene-Quaternary units could be interpreted as a decrease in the stress magnitude and consequently in the tectonic activity of the fault. At a regional scale, comparison of the growth successions cropping out in the northern and southern limits of the Bajo Segura Basin points to a southward migration of deformation in the basin. This means that the Bajo Segura Fault became active after the Crevillente Fault (Abanilla-Alicante sector), for which activity on the latter was probably decreasing according to our data. Consequently, we propose that the seismic hazard at the northern limit of the Bajo Segura Basin should be lower than at the southern limit.

Why EU promotion is at odds with successful crisis management: public relations, news coverage, and the Aceh Monitoring Mission. EU Centre in Singapore Working Paper No. 10, September 2012

The EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and its accompanying Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) missions can be tools used to increase the international profile of the European Union. Nevertheless, CSDP missions garner little news coverage. This article argues that the very nature of the missions themselves makes them poor vehicles for EU promotion for political, institutional, and logistical reasons. By definition, they are conducted in the middle of crises, making news coverage politically sensitive. The very act of reporting could undermine the mission. Institutionally, all CSDP missions are intergovernmental, making press statements slow, overly bureaucratic, and of little interest to journalists. Logistically, the missions are often located in remote, undeveloped parts of the world, making it difficult and expensive for European and international journalists to cover. Moreover, these regions in crisis seldom have a thriving, local free press. Using the Aceh Monitoring Mission (AMM) as a case study, the author concludes that although a mission may do good, CSDP missions cannot fulfil the political function of raising the profile of the EU.