Previsão de carga multinodal utilizando redes neurais de regressão generalizada

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A regional basic income: towards the eradication of extreme poverty in Central America

Incluye Bibliografía

Analysis of extreme events in the Caribbean 1990-2008

This study presents an analysis of extreme events in the Caribbean subregion for the period 1990 to 2008, and forms part of a similar, wider study focused on the Latin America and the Caribbean region (Central America and South America being the other two subregional components). It explores the economic costs of climate change through an examination of adaptation costs to extreme events. ECLAC, through its Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean, is pleased to have been able to undertake this study with the financial support of DFID and to have ensured its successful execution in collaboration with technical expertise from the University of the West Indies.

Axial loads on implant-supported partial fixed prostheses for external and internal hex connections and machined and plastic copings: strain gauge analysis

The aim of this in vitro study was to use strain gauge (SG) analysis to compare the effects of the implant-abutment joint, the coping, and the location of load on strain distribution in the bone around implants supporting 3-unit fixed partial prostheses. Three external hexagon (EH) implants and 3 internal hexagon (IH) implants were inserted into 2 polyurethane blocks. Microunit abutments were screwed onto their respective implant groups. Machined cobalt-chromium copings and plastic copings were screwed onto the abutments, which received standard wax patterns. The wax patterns were cast in a cobalt-chromium alloy (n = 5): group 1 = EH/machined. group 2 = EH/plastic, group 3 = IH/machined, and group 4 = IH/plastic. Four SGs were bonded onto the surface of the block tangentially to the implants. Each metallic structure was screwed onto the abutments and an axial load of 30 kg was applied at 5 predetermined points. The magnitude of microstrain on each SG was recorded in units of microstrain (mu epsilon). The data were analyzed using 3-factor repeated measures analysis of variance and a Tukey test (alpha = 0.05). The results showed statistically significant differences for the type of implant-abutment joint, loading point, and interaction at the implant-abutment joint/loading point. The IH connection showed higher microstrain values than the EH connection. It was concluded that the type of coping did not interfere in the magnitude of microstrain, but the implant/abutment joint and axial loading location influenced this magnitude.

Feasibility Study of Solar Driven Underground Cooling System

In the United States the peak electrical use occurs during the summer. In addition, the building sector consumes a major portion of the annual electrical energy consumption. One of the main energy consuming components in the building sector is the Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) systems. This research studies the feasibility of implementing a solar driven underground cooling system that could contribute to reducing building cooling loads. The developed system consists of an Earth-to-Air Heat Exchanger (EAHE) coupled with a solar chimney that provides a natural cool draft to the test facility building at the Solar Energy Research Test Facility in Omaha, Nebraska. Two sets of tests have been conducted: a natural passively driven airflow test and a forced fan assisted airflow test. The resulting data of the tests has been analyzed to study the thermal performance of the implemented system. Results show that: The underground soil proved to be a good heat sink at a depth of 9.5ft, where its temperature fluctuates yearly in the range of (46.5°F-58.2°F). Furthermore, the coupled system during the natural airflow modes can provide good thermal comfort conditions that comply with ASHRAE standard 55-2004. It provided 0.63 tons of cooling, which almost covered the building design cooling load (0.8 tons, extreme condition). On the other hand, although the coupled system during the forced airflow mode could not comply with ASHRAE standard 55-2004, it provided 1.27 tons of cooling which is even more than the building load requirements. Moreover, the underground soil experienced thermal saturation during the forced airflow mode due to the oversized fan, which extracted much more airflow than the EAHE ability for heat dissipation and the underground soil for heat absorption. In conclusion, the coupled system proved to be a feasible cooling system, which could be further improved with a few design recommendations.

Predicting the behaviour of structures under impact loads using geometrically distorted scaled models

When a scaled structure (model or replica) is used to predict the response of a full-size compound (prototype), the model geometric dimensions should relate to the corresponding prototype dimensions by a single scaling factor. However, owing to manufacturing technical restrictions, this condition cannot be accomplished for some of the dimensions in real structures. Accordingly, the distorted geometry will not comply with the overall geometric scaling factor, infringing the Pi theorem requirements for complete dynamic similarity. In the present study, a method which takes geometrical distortions into account is introduced, leading to a model similar to the prototype. As a means to infer the performance of this method, three analytical problems of structures subjected to dynamic loads are analysed. It is shown that the replica developed applying this technique is able to accurately predict the full-size structure behaviour even when the studied models have some of their dimensions severely distorted. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integration of spatial and temporal models to predict extreme water table depths

The objective of this work was to evaluate extreme water table depths in a watershed, using methods for geographical spatial data analysis. Groundwater spatio-temporal dynamics was evaluated in an outcrop of the Guarani Aquifer System. Water table depths were estimated from monitoring of water levels in 23 piezometers and time series modeling available from April 2004 to April 2011. For generation of spatial scenarios, geostatistical techniques were used, which incorporated into the prediction ancillary information related to the geomorphological patterns of the watershed, using a digital elevation model. This procedure improved estimates, due to the high correlation between water levels and elevation, and aggregated physical sense to predictions. The scenarios showed differences regarding the extreme levels - too deep or too shallow ones - and can subsidize water planning, efficient water use, and sustainable water management in the watershed.

Proactive management of extreme prematurity: disagreement between obstetricians and neonatologists

Objective: To verify, in extremely preterm infants, if disagreement between obstetricians and neonatologists regarding proactive management is associated with early death. Study Design: Prospective cohort of 484 infants with 23(0/7) to 26(6/7) weeks, without malformations, born from January 2006 to December 2009 in eight Brazilian hospitals. Pro-active management was defined as indication of >= 1 dose of antenatal steroid or cesarean section (obstetrician) and resuscitation at birth according to the international guidelines (neonatologist). Main outcome was neonatal death in the first 24 h of life. Result: Obstetricians and neonatologists disagreed in 115 (24%) patients: only neonatologists were proactive in 107 of them. Disagreement between professionals increased 2.39 times the chance of death in the first day (95% confidence interval 1.40 to 4.09), adjusted for center and maternal/neonatal clinical conditions. Conclusion: In infants with 23 to 26 weeks of gestation, disagreement between obstetricians and neonatologists, translated as lack of antenatal steroids and/or vaginal delivery, despite resuscitation procedures, increases the odds of death in the first day. Journal of Perinatology (2012) 32, 913-919; doi:10.1038/jp.2012.28; published online 29 March 2012

A large Cervidae Holocene accumulation in Eastern Brazil: an example of extreme taphonomical control in a cave environment

A remarkable cervid bone accumulation occurs at a single passage (named Cervid Passage; CP) at Lapa Nova, a maze cave in eastern Brazil. CP lies away from cave entrances, is a typical pitfall passage and contains bone remains of at least 121 cervids, besides few bats, peccaries and rodents remains. There is no evidence of water (or sediment) flow at the site and in general bones lack post depositional alterations and display anatomical proximity, suggesting that the majority of the remains found inside CP (mainly cervids) are due to animals that after entering the cave got trapped in the site. Observations suggest that two entrances could have provided access to cervids (and the few other animals, besides bats), either by falling inside the cave or by entering by their own free will. Once inside the cave, the maze pattern would make route finding difficult, and of all passage intersections, only the one leading to CP would result in a non-return situation, starving the animal to death. Radiocarbon dates suggest that animal entrapment occurred during at least 5 thousand years, during the Holocene. The reasons why mainly cervids were found are unknown but they are probably related to the biology of this group coupled with the fact that caves provide several specific taphonomic processes that may account for a strong bias in bone accumulation. Indeed, the frequent occurrence of Cervidae in both the fossil and sub-fossil record in Brazilian caves may be related to an overall high faunal abundance or may suggest that these animals were especially prone to enter caves, perhaps in search of nutrients (as cave saltpetre) or water.

Extreme bariatric endoscopy: stenting to reconnect the pouch to the gastrojejunostomy after a Roux-en-Y gastric bypass

Among the possible complications of bariatric surgery, fistula and partial dehiscence of the gastric suture are well known. Reoperation often is required but results in significant morbidity. Endoscopic treatment of some bariatric complications is feasible and efficient. A modified metallic stent was placed between the gastroaesophageal junction and the alimentary jejunal limb, allowing the passage of a nasoenteric feeding tube into the jejunal limb. Endoscopy showed disruption of nearly the entire staple line at the gastric pouch. The modified stent was placed and allowed wound healing. After 31 days, the stent had migrated and was removed endoscopically. Total clousure of the fistula was reported 30 days afterward. Endoscopic treatment of some bariatric surgery complications is feasible and has been reported previously. This report presents a case of a serious leakage treated by placement of a self-expandable metal stent to bridge the fistula.

An Extreme Case of Plant-Insect Codiversification: Figs and Fig-Pollinating Wasps

It is thought that speciation in phytophagous insects is often due to colonization of novel host plants, because radiations of plant and insect lineages are typically asynchronous. Recent phylogenetic comparisons have supported this model of diversification for both insect herbivores and specialized pollinators. An exceptional case where contemporaneous plant-insect diversification might be expected is the obligate mutualism between fig trees (Ficus species, Moraceae) and their pollinating wasps (Agaonidae, Hymenoptera). The ubiquity and ecological significance of this mutualism in tropical and subtropical ecosystems has long intrigued biologists, but the systematic challenge posed by >750 interacting species pairs has hindered progress toward understanding its evolutionary history. In particular, taxon sampling and analytical tools have been insufficient for large-scale cophylogenetic analyses. Here, we sampled nearly 200 interacting pairs of fig and wasp species from across the globe. Two supermatrices were assembled: on an average, wasps had sequences from 77% of 6 genes (5.6 kb), figs had sequences from 60% of 5 genes (5.5 kb), and overall 850 new DNA sequences were generated for this study. We also developed a new analytical tool, Jane 2, for event-based phylogenetic reconciliation analysis of very large data sets. Separate Bayesian phylogenetic analyses for figs and fig wasps under relaxed molecular clock assumptions indicate Cretaceous diversification of crown groups and contemporaneous divergence for nearly half of all fig and pollinator lineages. Event-based cophylogenetic analyses further support the codiversification hypothesis. Biogeographic analyses indicate that the present-day distribution of fig and pollinator lineages is consistent with a Eurasian origin and subsequent dispersal, rather than with Gondwanan vicariance. Overall, our findings indicate that the fig-pollinator mutualism represents an extreme case among plant-insect interactions of coordinated dispersal and long-term codiversification.

HIV-1 Proviral DNA Loads (as Determined by Quantitative PCR) in Patients Subjected to Structured Treatment Interruption after Antiretroviral Therapy Failure

The impact of Structured Treatment Interruption (STI) in peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) proviral reservoirs in 41 highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART)-treated viremic individuals at baseline and 12 weeks after STI was determined using quantitative PCR (qPCR). Viral load increased 0.7 log(10) and CD4 decreased 97.5 cells/mm(3) after 12 weeks. A total of 28 of the 41 individuals showed an increased proviral load, 19 with a statistically significant increase above 10%. An increase in active viral replication is an important factor in the replenishment of the proviral reservoir even for short time periods.

Effectiveness of a long-term use of a minimalist footwear versus habitual shoe on pain, function and mechanical loads in knee osteoarthritis: a randomized controlled trial

Background: Recent studies have shown an important reduction of joint overload during locomotion in elderly women with knee osteoarthritis (OA) after short- term use of minimalist shoes. Our aim is to investigate the chronic effect of inexpensive and minimalist footwear on the clinical and functional aspects of OA and gait biomechanics of elderly women with knee OA. Methods/Design: Fifty-six elderly women with knee OA grade 2 or 3 (Kellgren and Lawrence) are randomized into blocks and allocated to either the intervention group, which will use flexible, non-heeled shoes-Moleca (R)-for six months for at least six hours daily, or the control group, which could not use these shoes. Neither group is undergoing physical therapy treatment throughout the intervention period. Moleca (R) is a women's double canvas, flexible, flat walking shoe without heels, with a 5-mm anti-slip rubber sole and a 3-mm internal wedge of ethylene vinyl acetate. Both groups will be followed for six months and will be assessed at baseline condition, after three months, and after six months (end of intervention). All the assessments will be performed by a physiotherapist that is blind to the group allocation. The primary outcome is the pain Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis (WOMAC) score. The secondary outcomes are global WOMAC score; joint stiffness and disability WOMAC scores; knee pain with a visual analogue scale; walking distance in the six-minute walk test; Lequesne score; amount and frequency (number of days) of paracetamol (500 mg) intake over six months; knee adduction moment during gait; global medical assessment score; and global patient auto-assessment score. At baseline, all patients receive a diary to record the hours of daily use of the footwear intervention; every two weeks, the same physiotherapist makes phone calls to all patients in order to verify adherence to treatment. The statistical analysis will be based on intention to treat analysis, as well as general linear models of analysis of variance for repeated measure to detect treatment-time interactions (alpha = 5%). Discussion: This is the first randomized, clinical trial protocol to assess the chronic effect of minimalist footwear on the clinical and functional aspects and gait biomechanics of elderly women with knee osteoarthritis. We expect that the use of Moleca (R) shoes for six months will provide pain relief, reduction of the knee adduction moment when walking, and improve joint function in elderly women with knee OA, and that the treatment, thus, can be considered another inexpensive and easy-to-use option for conservative OA treatment.

Statistical assessment of annual patterns in coastal extreme wave conditions

[EN]The annual cycle in extreme values of significant wave height is examined by transforming the timing ofthe storm peaks in a circular variable, with the aim of taking advantage of the many tests devised to explore uniformity on the circle. The use of four different but complementary uniformity tests makes possible a robust assessment of the annual cycle statistical significance. Seasonality of storms in a long time series of significant wave heights, measured in a coastal zone, is examined. The presence of a seasonal pattem is statistically beyond doubt.