Co-eruptive and inter-eruptive surface deformation measured by satellite radar interferometry at Nyamuragira volcano, D.R. Congo, 1996 to 2010.

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurements of surface deformation at Nyamuragira Volcano between 1996 and 2010 reveal a variety of co-eruptive and inter-eruptive signals. During 7 of the 8 eruptions in this period deformation was measured that is consistent with the emplacement of shallow near-vertical dykes feeding the eruptive fissures and associated with a NNW-trending fissure zone that traverses the summit caldera. Between eruptions the caldera and the summit part of this fissure zone subsided gradually (b3–5 cm/year). We also find evidence of post-eruption subsidence around the sites of the main vents of some flank eruptions (2002, 2004, 2006, and 2010). In the 6 months prior to the 2010 eruption a10-km wide zone centred on the caldera inflated by 1–2 cm. The low magnitude of this signal suggests that the presumed magma reservoir at 3–8 km depth contains highly compressible magma with little stored elastic strain energy. To the north of the caldera the fissure zone splits into WNW and NE branches around a zone that has a distinct InSAR signal. We interpret this zone to represent an elevated, 'stable' block of basement rocks buried by lavas within the Rift Zone.

Storing and manipulating environmental big data with JASMIN

JASMIN is a super-data-cluster designed to provide a high-performance high-volume data analysis environment for the UK environmental science community. Thus far JASMIN has been used primarily by the atmospheric science and earth observation communities, both to support their direct scientific workflow, and the curation of data products in the STFC Centre for Environmental Data Archival (CEDA). Initial JASMIN configuration and first experiences are reported here. Useful improvements in scientific workflow are presented. It is clear from the explosive growth in stored data and use that there was a pent up demand for a suitable big-data analysis environment. This demand is not yet satisfied, in part because JASMIN does not yet have enough compute, the storage is fully allocated, and not all software needs are met. Plans to address these constraints are introduced.

The role of sky conditions on gross primary production in a mixed deciduous forest

The role of different sky conditions on diffuse PAR fraction (ϕ), air temperature (Ta), vapor pressure deficit (vpd) and GPP in a deciduous forest is investigated using eddy covariance observations of CO2 fluxes and radiometer and ceilometer observations of sky and PAR conditions on hourly and growing season timescales. Maximum GPP response occurred under moderate to high PAR and ϕ and low vpd. Light response models using a rectangular hyperbola showed a positive linear relation between ϕ and effective quantum efficiency (α = 0.023ϕ + 0.012, r2 = 0.994). Since PAR and ϕ are negatively correlated, there is a tradeoff between the greater use efficiency of diffuse light and lower vpd and the associated decrease in total PAR available for photosynthesis. To a lesser extent, light response was also modified by vpd and Ta. The net effect of these and their relation with sky conditions helped enhance light response under sky conditions that produced higher ϕ. Six sky conditions were classified from cloud frequency and ϕ data: optically thick clouds, optically thin clouds, mixed sky (partial clouds within hour), high, medium and low optical aerosol. The frequency and light responses of each sky condition for the growing season were used to predict the role of changing sky conditions on annual GPP. The net effect of increasing frequency of thick clouds is to decrease GPP, changing low aerosol conditions has negligible effect. Increases in the other sky conditions all lead to gains in GPP. Sky conditions that enhance intermediate levels of ϕ, such as thin or scattered clouds or higher aerosol concentrations from volcanic eruptions or anthropogenic emissions, will have a positive outcome on annual GPP, while an increase in cloud cover will have a negative impact. Due to the ϕ/PAR tradeoff and since GPP response to changes in individual sky conditions differ in sign and magnitude, the net response of ecosystem GPP to future sky conditions is non-linear and tends toward moderation of change.

Observations of the eruption of the Sarychev volcano and simulations using the HadGEM2 climate model

In June 2009 the Sarychev volcano located in the Kuril Islands to the northeast of Japan erupted explosively, injecting ash and an estimated 1.2 ± 0.2 Tg of sulfur dioxide into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, making it arguably one of the 10 largest stratospheric injections in the last 50 years. During the period immediately after the eruption, we show that the sulfur dioxide (SO2) cloud was clearly detected by retrievals developed for the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) satellite instrument and that the resultant stratospheric sulfate aerosol was detected by the Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imaging System (OSIRIS) limb sounder and CALIPSO lidar. Additional surface‐based instrumentation allows assessment of the impact of the eruption on the stratospheric aerosol optical depth. We use a nudged version of the HadGEM2 climate model to investigate how well this state‐of‐the‐science climate model can replicate the distributions of SO2 and sulfate aerosol. The model simulations and OSIRIS measurements suggest that in the Northern Hemisphere the stratospheric aerosol optical depth was enhanced by around a factor of 3 (0.01 at 550 nm), with resultant impacts upon the radiation budget. The simulations indicate that, in the Northern Hemisphere for July 2009, the magnitude of the mean radiative impact from the volcanic aerosols is more than 60% of the direct radiative forcing of all anthropogenic aerosols put together. While the cooling induced by the eruption will likely not be detectable in the observational record, the combination of modeling and measurements would provide an ideal framework for simulating future larger volcanic eruptions.

Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall

The Sahelian drought of the 1970s–1990s was one of the largest humanitarian disasters of the past 50 years, causing up to 250,000 deaths and creating 10 million refugees1. It has been attributed to natural variability2–5, overgrazing6 and the impact of industrial emissions of sulphur dioxide7,8. Each mechanism can influence the Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient, which is strongly coupled to Sahelian precipitation2,3. We suggest that sporadic volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere also strongly influence this gradient and cause Sahelian drought. Using de-trended observations from 1900 to 2010, we show that three of the four driest Sahelian summers were preceded by substantial Northern Hemisphere volcanic eruptions. We use a state-ofthe- art coupled global atmosphere–ocean model to simulate both episodic volcanic eruptions and geoengineering by continuous deliberate injection into the stratosphere. In either case, large asymmetric stratospheric aerosol loadings concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere are a harbinger of Sahelian drought whereas those concentrated in the Southern Hemisphere induce a greening of the Sahel. Further studies of the detailed regional impacts on the Sahel and other vulnerable areas are required to inform policymakers in developing careful consensual global governance before any practical solar radiation management geoengineering scheme is implemented.

The heliospheric magnetic field

The heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) is the extension of the coronal magnetic field carried out into the solar system by the solar wind. It is the means by which the Sun interacts with planetary magnetospheres and channels charged particles propagating through the heliosphere. As the HMF remains rooted at the solar photosphere as the Sun rotates, the large-scale HMF traces out an Archimedean spiral. This pattern is distorted by the interaction of fast and slow solar wind streams, as well as the interplanetary manifestations of transient solar eruptions called coronal mass ejections. On the smaller scale, the HMF exhibits an array of waves, discontinuities, and turbulence, which give hints to the solar wind formation process. This review aims to summarise observations and theory of the small- and large-scale structure of the HMF. Solar-cycle and cycle-to-cycle evolution of the HMF is discussed in terms of recent spacecraft observations and pre-spaceage proxies for the HMF in geomagnetic and galactic cosmic ray records.

Reconciliation of halogen-induced ozone loss with the total-column ozone record

The observed depletion of the ozone layer from the 1980s onwards is attributed to halogen source gases emitted by human activities. However, the precision of this attribution is complicated by year-to-year variations in meteorology, that is, dynamical variability, and by changes in tropospheric ozone concentrations. As such, key aspects of the total-column ozone record, which combines changes in both tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, remain unexplained, such as the apparent absence of a decline in total-column ozone levels before 1980, and of any long-term decline in total-column ozone levels in the tropics. Here we use a chemistry–climate model to estimate changes in halogen-induced ozone loss between 1960 and 2010; the model is constrained by observed meteorology to remove the effects of dynamical variability, and driven by emissions of tropospheric ozone precursors to separate out changes in tropospheric ozone. We show that halogen-induced ozone loss closely followed stratospheric halogen loading over the studied period. Pronounced enhancements in ozone loss were apparent in both hemispheres following the volcanic eruptions of El Chichon and, in particular, Mount Pinatubo, which significantly enhanced stratospheric aerosol loads. We further show that approximately 40% of the long-term non-volcanic ozone loss occurred before 1980, and that long-term ozone loss also occurred in the tropical stratosphere. Finally, we show that halogen-induced ozone loss has declined by over 10% since stratospheric halogen loading peaked in the late 1990s, indicating that the recovery of the ozone layer is well underway.

Secondary cyclogenesis along an occluded front leading to damaging wind gusts: windstorm Kyrill, January 2007

Windstorm Kyrill affected large parts of Europe in January 2007 and caused widespread havoc and loss of life. In this study the formation of a secondary cyclone, Kyill II, along the occluded front of the mature cyclone Kyrill and the occurrence of severe wind gusts as Kyrill II passed over Germany are investigated with the help of high-resolution regional climate model simulations. Kyrill underwent an explosive cyclogenesis south of Greenland as the storm crossed polewards of an intense upper-level jet stream. Later in its life cycle secondary cyclogenesis occurred just west of the British Isles. The formation of Kyrill II along the occluded front was associated (a) with frontolytic strain and (b) with strong diabatic heating in combination with a developing upper-level shortwave trough. Sensitivity studies with reduced latent heat release feature a similar development but a weaker secondary cyclone, revealing the importance of diabatic processes during the formation of Kyrill II. Kyrill II moved further towards Europe and its development was favored by a split jet structure aloft, which maintained the cyclone’s exceptionally deep core pressure (below 965 hPa) for at least 36 hours. The occurrence of hurricane force winds related to the strong cold front over North and Central Germany is analyzed using convection-permitting simulations. The lower troposphere exhibits conditional instability, a turbulent flow and evaporative cooling. Simulation at high spatio-temporal resolution suggests that the downward mixing of high momentum (the wind speed at 875 hPa widely exceeded 45 m s-1) accounts for widespread severe surface wind gusts, which is in agreement with observed widespread losses.

Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models

Observational analyses of running 5-year ocean heat content trends (Ht) and net downward top of atmosphere radiation (N) are significantly correlated (r~0.6) from 1960 to 1999, but a spike in Ht in the early 2000s is likely spurious since it is inconsistent with estimates of N from both satellite observations and climate model simulations. Variations in N between 1960 and 2000 were dominated by volcanic eruptions, and are well simulated by the ensemble mean of coupled models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We find an observation-based reduction in N of -0.31±0.21 Wm-2 between 1999 and 2005 that potentially contributed to the recent warming slowdown, but the relative roles of external forcing and internal variability remain unclear. While present-day anomalies of N in the CMIP5 ensemble mean and observations agree, this may be due to a cancellation of errors in outgoing longwave and absorbed solar radiation.

Capturing and sharing our collective expertise on climate data: the CHARMe project

For users of climate services, the ability to quickly determine the datasets that best fit one's needs would be invaluable. The volume, variety and complexity of climate data makes this judgment difficult. The ambition of CHARMe ("Characterization of metadata to enable high-quality climate services") is to give a wider interdisciplinary community access to a range of supporting information, such as journal articles, technical reports or feedback on previous applications of the data. The capture and discovery of this "commentary" information, often created by data users rather than data providers, and currently not linked to the data themselves, has not been significantly addressed previously. CHARMe applies the principles of Linked Data and open web standards to associate, record, search and publish user-derived annotations in a way that can be read both by users and automated systems. Tools have been developed within the CHARMe project that enable annotation capability for data delivery systems already in wide use for discovering climate data. In addition, the project has developed advanced tools for exploring data and commentary in innovative ways, including an interactive data explorer and comparator ("CHARMe Maps") and a tool for correlating climate time series with external "significant events" (e.g. instrument failures or large volcanic eruptions) that affect the data quality. Although the project focuses on climate science, the concepts are general and could be applied to other fields. All CHARMe system software is open-source, released under a liberal licence, permitting future projects to re-use the source code as they wish.

Sensitivity of OMI SO2 measurements to variable eruptive behaviour at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Since 2004, the satellite-borne Ozone Mapping Instrument (OMI) has observed sulphur dioxide (SO2) plumes during both quiescence and effusive eruptive activity at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. On average, OMI detected a SO2 plume 4-6 times more frequently during effusive periods than during quiescence in the 2008-2010 period. The increased ability of OMI to detect SO2 during eruptive periods is mainly due to an increase in plume altitude rather than a higher SO2 emission rate. Three styles of eruptive activity cause thermal lofting of gases (Vulcanian explosions; pyroclastic flows; a hot lava dome) and the resultant plume altitudes are estimated from observations and models. Most lofting plumes from Soufrière Hills are derived from hot domes and pyroclastic flows. Although Vulcanian explosions produced the largest plumes, some produced only negligible SO2 signals detected by OMI. OMI is most valuable for monitoring purposes at this volcano during periods of lava dome growth and during explosive activity.

Exploiting thermally-reversible chemistry for controlling the crosslinking of polymer networks

High explosives are highly sensitive to accidental detonation by impact, fire, shrapnel and small arms fire. This sensitivity can be reduced by storing the energetic material within a rubbery polymer matrix and are known as plastic bonded explosives (PBX). The current procedure used to manufacture PBX involves mixing the energetic material with a hydroxy-functionalised aliphatic polymer. Upon the addition of an isocyanate crosslinker an immediate polymerisation occurs and thus the rapidly curing mixture must be used to fill the missile or shells, referred to as ‘stores’. This process can lead to poor distribution of the crosslinker resulting in the formation of an inhomogeneously crosslinked matrix and the formation of voids. One solution to this problem involves containing the crosslinker within polyurethane microcapsules that are uniformly dispersed in the explosive-polymer mixture. Upon the application of a stimulus the crosslinker can be released from the microcapsules and the formation of a uniformly crosslinked PBX achieved. Herein is reported the design and synthesis of polyurethane microcapsules that release isocyanate crosslinkers when desired using a thermal stimulus. This has been achieved by exploiting the thermally-reversible nature of oxime-urethane and Diels-Alder adducts that have been incorporated into the shell wall of the microcapsules. An alternative approach to controlling the polymerisation of PBX materials has also been achieved using thermally-reversible blocked isocyanates that regenerate the isocyanate crosslinker when exposed to heat.

Climate variability and socio-environmental changes in the northern Aegean (NE Mediterranean) during the last 1500 years

We provide new evidence on sea surface temperature (SST) variations and paleoceanographic/paleoenvironmental changes over the past 1500 years for the north Aegean Sea (NE Mediterranean). The reconstructions are based on multiproxy analyses, obtained from the high resolution (decadal to multidecadal) marine record M2 retrieved from the Athos basin. Reconstructed SSTs show an increase from ca. 850 to 950 AD and from ca. 1100 to 1300 AD. A cooling phase of almost 1.5 �C is observed from ca. 1600 AD to 1700 AD. This seems to have been the starting point of a continuous SST warming trend until the end of the reconstructed period, interrupted by two prominent cooling events at 1832 ± 15 AD and 1995 ± 1 AD. Application of an adaptive Kernel smoothing suggests that the current warming in the reconstructed SSTs of the north Aegean might be unprecedented in the context of the past 1500 years. Internal variability in atmospheric/oceanic circulations systems as well as external forcing as solar radiation and volcanic activity could have affected temperature variations in the north Aegean Sea over the past 1500 years. The marked temperature drop of approximately ~2 �C at 1832 ± 15 yr AD could be related to the 1809 АD ‘unknown’ and the 1815 AD Tambora volcanic eruptions. Paleoenvironmental proxy-indices of the M2 record show enhanced riverine/continental inputs in the northern Aegean after ca. 1450 AD. The paleoclimatic evidence derived from the M2 record is combined with a socio-environmental study of the history of the north Aegean region. We show that the cultivation of temperature-sensitive crops, i.e. walnut, vine and olive, co-occurred with stable and warmer temperatures, while its end coincided with a significant episode of cooler temperatures. Periods of agricultural growth in Macedonia coincide with periods of warmer and more stable SSTs, but further exploration is required in order to identify the causal links behind the observed phenomena. The Black Death likely caused major changes in agricultural activity in the north Aegean region, as reflected in the pollen data from land sites of Macedonia and the M2 proxy-reconstructions. Finally, we conclude that the early modern peaks in mountain vegetation in the Rhodope and Macedonia highlands, visible also in the M2 record, were very likely climate-driven.

Revisiting 2D numerical models for the 19th century outbursts of eta Carinae

We present here new results of two-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations of the eruptive events of the 1840s (the great) and the 1890s (the minor) eruptions suffered by the massive star eta Carinae (Car). The two bipolar nebulae commonly known as the Homunculus and the little Homunculus (LH) were formed from the interaction of these eruptive events with the underlying stellar wind. We assume here an interacting, non-spherical multiple-phase wind scenario to explain the shape and the kinematics of both Homunculi, but adopt a more realistic parametrization of the phases of the wind. During the 1890s eruptive event, the outflow speed decreased for a short period of time. This fact suggests that the LH is formed when the eruption ends, from the impact of the post-outburst eta Car wind (that follows the 1890s event) with the eruptive flow (rather than by the collision of the eruptive flow with the pre-outburst wind, as claimed in previous models; Gonzalez et al.). Our simulations reproduce quite well the shape and the observed expansion speed of the large Homunculus. The LH (which is embedded within the large Homunculus) becomes Rayleigh-Taylor unstable and develop filamentary structures that resemble the spatial features observed in the polar caps. In addition, we find that the interior cavity between the two Homunculi is partially filled by material that is expelled during the decades following the great eruption. This result may be connected with the observed double-shell structure in the polar lobes of the eta Car nebula. Finally, as in previous work, we find the formation of tenuous, equatorial, high-speed features that seem to be related to the observed equatorial skirt of eta Car.

Upper-mantle seismic structure beneath SE and Central Brazil from P- and S-wave regional traveltime tomography

We present models for the upper-mantle velocity structure beneath SE and Central Brazil using independent tomographic inversions of P- and S-wave relative arrival-time residuals (including core phases) from teleseismic earthquakes. The events were recorded by a total of 92 stations deployed through different projects, institutions and time periods during the years 1992-2004. Our results show correlations with the main tectonic structures and reveal new anomalies not yet observed in previous works. All interpretations are based on robust anomalies, which appear in the different inversions for P-and S-waves. The resolution is variable through our study volume and has been analyzed through different theoretical test inversions. High-velocity anomalies are observed in the western portion of the Sao Francisco Craton, supporting the hypothesis that this Craton was part of a major Neoproterozoic plate (San Franciscan Plate). Low-velocity anomalies beneath the Tocantins Province (mainly fold belts between the Amazon and Sao Francisco Cratons) are interpreted as due to lithospheric thinning, which is consistent with the good correlation between intraplate seismicity and low-velocity anomalies in this region. Our results show that the basement of the Parana Basin is formed by several blocks, separated by suture zones, according to model of Milani & Ramos. The slab of the Nazca Plate can be observed as a high-velocity anomaly beneath the Parana Basin, between the depths of 700 and 1200 km. Further, we confirm the low-velocity anomaly in the NE area of the Parana Basin which has been interpreted by VanDecar et al. as a fossil conduct of the Tristan da Cunha Plume related to the Parana flood basalt eruptions during the opening of the South Atlantic.