Modelling the conversion of Colombian lowland ecosystems since 1940: Drivers, patterns and rates

In biologically mega-diverse countries that are undergoing rapid human landscape transformation, it is important to understand and model the patterns of land cover change. This problem is particularly acute in Colombia, where lowland forests are being rapidly cleared for cropping and ranching. We apply a conceptual model with a nested set of a priori predictions to analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of land cover change for six 50-100 km(2) case study areas in lowland ecosystems of Colombia. Our analysis included soil fertility, a cost-distance function, and neighbourhood of forest and secondary vegetation cover as independent variables. Deforestation and forest regrowth are tested using logistic regression analysis and an information criterion approach to rank the models and predictor variables. The results show that: (a) overall the process of deforestation is better predicted by the full model containing all variables, while for regrowth the model containing only the auto-correlated neighbourhood terms is a better predictor; (b) overall consistent patterns emerge, although there are variations across regions and time; and (c) during the transformation process, both the order of importance and significance of the drivers change. Forest cover follows a consistent logistic decline pattern across regions, with introduced pastures being the major replacement land cover type. Forest stabilizes at 2-10% of the original cover, with an average patch size of 15.4 (+/- 9.2) ha. We discuss the implications of the observed patterns and rates of land cover change for conservation planning in countries with high rates of deforestation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trace metals in Antarctic ecosystems: Results from the Larsemann Hills, East Antarctica

Sediments, mosses and algae, collected from lake catchments of the Larsemann Hills, East Antarctica, were analysed to establish baseline levels of trace metals (Ag, As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Sb, Pb, Se, V and Zn), and to quantify the extent of trace metal pollution in the area. Both impacted and non-impacted sites were included in the study. Four different leaching solutions (1 M MgCl2, 1 M CH3COONH4, 1 M NH4NO3, and 0.3 N HCl) were tested on the fine fraction (< 63 mu m) of the sediments to extract the mobile fraction of trace metals derived from human impact and from weathering of basement lithologies. Results of these tests indicate that dilute HCl partly dissolves primary minerals present in the sediment, thus leading to an overestimate of the mobile trace metal fraction. Concentrations of trace metals released using the other 3 procedures indicate negligible levels of anthropogenic contribution to the trace metal budget. Data derived from this study and a thorough characterisation of the site allowed the authors to define natural baseline levels of trace metals in sediments, mosses and algae, and their spatial variability across the area. The results show that, with a few notable exceptions, human activities at the research stations have contributed negligible levels (lower than natural variability) of trace metals to the Larsemann Hills ecosystem. This study further demonstrates that anthropogenic sources of trace metals can be correctly identified and quantified only if natural baselines, their variability, and processes controlling the mobility of trace metals in the ecosystem, have been fully characterised. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.