985 resultados para Error estimate.


Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Although growth rate and age data are essential for leatherback management, estimates of these demographic parameters remain speculative due to the cryptic life history of this endangered species. Skeletochronological analysis of scleral ossicles obtained from 8 captive, known-age and 33 wild leatherbacks originating from the western North Atlantic was conducted to characterize the ossicles and the growth marks within them. Ages were accurately estimated for the known-age turtles, and their growth mark attributes were used to calibrate growth mark counts for the ossicles from wild specimens. Due to growth mark compaction and resorption, the number of marks visible at ossicle section tips was consistently and significantly greater than the number visible along the lateral edges, demonstrating that growth mark counts should be performed at the tips so that age is not underestimated. A correction factor protocol that incorporated the trajectory of early growth increments was used to estimate the number of missing marks in those ossicles exhibiting resorption, which was then added to the number of observed marks to obtain an age estimate for each turtle. A generalized smoothing spline model, von Bertalanffy growth curve, and size-at-age function were used to obtain estimates of age at maturity for leatherbacks in the western North Atlantic. Results of these analyses suggest that median age at maturation for leatherbacks in this part of the world may range from 24.5 to 29 yr. These age estimates are much greater than those proposed in previous studies and have significant implications for population management and recovery.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

An assessment of the total biomass of shortbelly rockfish (Sebastes jordani) off the central California coast is presented that is based on a spatially extensive but temporally restricted ichthyoplankton survey conducted during the 1991 spawning season. Contemporaneous samples of adults were obtained by trawl sampling in the study region. Daily larval production (7.56 × 1010 larvae/d) and the larval mortality rate (Z=0.11/d) during the cruise were estimated from a larval “catch curve,” wherein the logarithm of total age-specific larval abundance was regressed against larval age. For this analysis, larval age compositions at each of the 150 sample sites were determined by examination of otolith microstructure from subsampled larvae (n=2203), which were weighted by the polygonal Sette-Ahlstrom area surrounding each station. Female population weight-specific fecundity was estimated through a life table analysis that incorporated sex-specific differences in adult growth rate, female maturity, fecundity, and natural mortality (M). The resulting statistic (102.17 larvae/g) was insensitive to errors in estimating M and to the pattern of recruitment. Together, the two analyses indicated that a total biomass equal to 1366 metric tons (t)/d of age-1+ shortbelly rockfish (sexes combined) was needed to account for the observed level of spawning output during the cruise. Given the long-term seasonal distribution of spawning activity in the study area, as elucidated from a retrospective examination of California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigation (CalCOFI) ichthyoplankton samples from 1952 to 1984, the “daily” total biomass was expanded to an annual total of 67,392 t. An attempt to account for all sources of error in the derivation of this estimate was made by application of the delta-method, which yielded a coefficient of variation of 19%. The relatively high precision of this larval production method, and the rapidity with which an absolute biomass estimate can be obtained, establishes that, for some species of rockfish (Sebastes spp.), it is an attractive alternative to traditional age-structured stock assessments.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Each spring horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus L.) emerge from Delaware Bay to spawn and deposit their eggs on the foreshore of sandy beaches (Shuster and Botton, 1985; Smith et al., 2002a). From mid-May to early June, migratory shorebirds stopover in Delaware Bay and forage heavily on horseshoe crab eggs that have been transported up onto the beach (Botton et al., 1994; Burger et al., 1997; Tsipoura and Burger, 1999). Thus, estimating the quantity of horseshoe crab eggs in Delaware Bay beaches can be useful for monitoring spawning activity and assessing the amount of forage available to migratory shorebirds.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Otolith thermal marking is an efficient method for mass marking hatchery-reared salmon and can be used to estimate the proportion of hatchery fish captured in a mixed-stock fishery. Accuracy of the thermal pattern classification depends on the prominence of the pattern, the methods used to prepare and view the patterns, and the training and experience of the personnel who determine the presence or absence of a particular pattern. Estimating accuracy rates is problematic when no secondary marking is available and no error-free standards exist. Agreement measures, such as kappa (κ), provide a relative measure of the reliability of the determinations when independent readings by two readers are available, but the magnitude of κ can be influenced by the proportion of marked fish. If a third reader is used or if two or more groups of paired readings are examined, latent class models can provide estimates of the error rates of each reader. Applications of κ and latent class models are illustrated by a program providing contribution estimates of hatchery-reared chum and sockeye salmon in Southeast Alaska.