937 resultados para Error correction model


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The Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) was a large, dynamic ice sheet in the early Holocene. The glacial events through Hudson Strait leading to its eventual demise are recorded in the well-dated Labrador shelf core, MD99-2236 from the Cartwright Saddle. We develop a detailed history of the timing of ice-sheet discharge events from the Hudson Strait outlet of the LIS during the Holocene using high-resolution detrital carbonate, ice rafted detritus (IRD), d18O, and sediment color data. Eight detrital carbonate peaks (DCPs) associated with IRD peaks and light oxygen isotope events punctuate the MD99-2236 record between 11.5 and 8.0 ka. We use the stratigraphy of the DCPs developed from MD99-2236 to select the appropriate DeltaR to calibrate the ages of recorded glacial events in Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait such that they match the DCPs in MD99-2236. We associate the eight DCPs with H0, Gold Cove advance, Noble Inlet advance, initial retreat of the Hudson Strait ice stream (HSIS) from Hudson Strait, opening of the Tyrrell Sea, and drainage of glacial lakes Agassiz and Ojibway. The opening of Foxe Channel and retreat of glacial ice from Foxe Basin are represented by a shoulder in the carbonate data. DeltaR of 350 years applied to the radiocarbon ages constraining glacial events H0 through the opening of the Tyrell Sea provided the best match with the MD99-2236 DCPs; DeltaR values and ages from the literature are used for the younger events. A very close age match was achieved between the 8.2 ka cold event in the Greenland ice cores, DCP7 (8.15 ka BP), and the drainage of glacial lakes Agassiz and Ojibway. Our stratigraphic comparison between the DCPs in MD99-2236 and the calibrated ages of Hudson Strait/Bay deglacial events shows that the retreat of the HSIS, the opening of the Tyrell Sea, and the catastrophic drainage of glacial lakes Agassiz and Ojibway at 8.2 ka are separate events that have been combined in previous estimates of the timing of the 8.2 ka event from marine records. SW Iceland shelf core MD99-2256 documents freshwater entrainment into the subpolar gyre from the Hudson Strait outlet via the Labrador, North Atlantic, and Irminger currents. The timing of freshwater release from the LIS Hudson Strait outlet in MD99-2236 matches evidence for freshwater forcing and LIS icebergs carrying foreign minerals to the SW Iceland shelf between 11.5 and 8.2 ka. The congruency of these records supports the conclusion of the entrainment of freshwater from the retreat of the LIS through Hudson Strait into the subpolar gyre and provides specific time periods when pulses of LIS freshwater were present to influence climate.

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The potential use of stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios (d13C, d15N) of fish gills for studies on fish feeding ecology was evaluated by comparing the d13C and d15N of gill tissue with the more commonly used white muscle tissue. To account for the effect of lipid content on the d13C signatures, a study-specific lipid correction model based on C:N ratios was developed and applied to the bulk d13C data. For the majority of species in the study, we found no significant difference in d13C values between gill and muscle tissue after correction, but several species showed a small (0.3-1.4 per mil) depletion in 13C in white muscle compared to gill tissue. The average species difference in d15N between muscle and gill tissue ranged from -0.2 to 1.6 per mil for the different fish species with muscle tissue generally more enriched in 15N. The d13C values of muscle and gill were strongly linearly correlated (R**2 = 0.85) over a large isotopic range (13 per mil), suggesting that both tissues can be used to determine long-term feeding or migratory habits of fish. Muscle and gill tissue bulk d15N values were also strongly positively correlated (R**2= 0.76) but with a small difference between muscle and gill tissue. This difference indicates that the bulk d15N of the two tissue types may be influenced by different isotopic turnover rates or a different composition of amino acids.

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Thirty years after oxygen isotope records from microfossils deposited in ocean sediments confirmed the hypothesis that variations in the Earth's orbital geometry control the ice ages (Hays et al., 1976, doi:10.1126/science.194.4270.1121), fundamental questions remain over the response of the Antarctic ice sheets to orbital cycles (Raymo and Huybers, 2008, doi:10.1038/nature06589). Furthermore, an understanding of the behaviour of the marine-based West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) during the 'warmer-than-present' early-Pliocene epoch (~5-3 Myr ago) is needed to better constrain the possible range of ice-sheet behaviour in the context of future global warming (Solomon et al., 2007). Here we present a marine glacial record from the upper 600 m of the AND-1B sediment core recovered from beneath the northwest part of the Ross ice shelf by the ANDRILL programme and demonstrate well-dated, ~40-kyr cyclic variations in ice-sheet extent linked to cycles in insolation influenced by changes in the Earth's axial tilt (obliquity) during the Pliocene. Our data provide direct evidence for orbitally induced oscillations in the WAIS, which periodically collapsed, resulting in a switch from grounded ice, or ice shelves, to open waters in the Ross embayment when planetary temperatures were up to ~3° C warmer than today ( Kim and Crowley, 2000, doi:10.1029/1999PA000459) and atmospheric CO2 concentration was as high as ~400 p.p.m.v. (van der Burgh et al., 1993, doi:10.1126/science.260.5115.1788, Raymo et al., 1996, doi:10.1016/0377-8398(95)00048-8). The evidence is consistent with a new ice-sheet/ice-shelf model (Pollard and DeConto, 2009, doi:10.1038/nature07809) that simulates fluctuations in Antarctic ice volume of up to +7 m in equivalent sea level associated with the loss of the WAIS and up to +3 m in equivalent sea level from the East Antarctic ice sheet, in response to ocean-induced melting paced by obliquity. During interglacial times, diatomaceous sediments indicate high surface-water productivity, minimal summer sea ice and air temperatures above freezing, suggesting an additional influence of surface melt (Huybers, 2006, doi:10.1126/science.1125249) under conditions of elevated CO2.

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This paper will look at the benefits and limitations of content distribution using Forward Error Correction (FEC) in conjunction with the Transmission Control Protocol (TCP). FEC can be used to reduce the number of retransmissions which would usually result from a lost packet. The requirement for TCP to deal with any losses is then greatly reduced. There are however side-effects to using FEC as a countermeasure to packet loss: an additional requirement for bandwidth. When applications such as real-time video conferencing are needed, delay must be kept to a minimum, and retransmissions are certainly not desirable. A balance, therefore, between additional bandwidth and delay due to retransmissions must be struck. Our results show that the throughput of data can be significantly improved when packet loss occurs using a combination of FEC and TCP, compared to relying solely on TCP for retransmissions. Furthermore, a case study applies the result to demonstrate the achievable improvements in the quality of streaming video perceived by end users.

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In this work, we present an adaptive unequal loss protection (ULP) scheme for H264/AVC video transmission over lossy networks. This scheme combines erasure coding, H.264/AVC error resilience techniques and importance measures in video coding. The unequal importance of the video packets is identified in the group of pictures (GOP) and the H.264/AVC data partitioning levels. The presented method can adaptively assign unequal amount of forward error correction (FEC) parity across the video packets according to the network conditions, such as the available network bandwidth, packet loss rate and average packet burst loss length. A near optimal algorithm is developed to deal with the FEC assignment for optimization. The simulation results show that our scheme can effectively utilize network resources such as bandwidth, while improving the quality of the video transmission. In addition, the proposed ULP strategy ensures graceful degradation of the received video quality as the packet loss rate increases. © 2010 IEEE.

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We develop a framework for estimating the quality of transmission (QoT) of a new lightpath before it is established, as well as for calculating the expected degradation it will cause to existing lightpaths. The framework correlates the QoT metrics of established lightpaths, which are readily available from coherent optical receivers that can be extended to serve as optical performance monitors. Past similar studies used only space (routing) information and thus neglected spectrum, while they focused on oldgeneration noncoherent networks. The proposed framework accounts for correlation in both the space and spectrum domains and can be applied to both fixed-grid wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) and elastic optical networks. It is based on a graph transformation that exposes and models the interference between spectrum-neighboring channels. Our results indicate that our QoT estimates are very close to the actual performance data, that is, to having perfect knowledge of the physical layer. The proposed estimation framework is shown to provide up to 4 × 10-2 lower pre-forward error correction bit error ratio (BER) compared to theworst-case interference scenario,which overestimates the BER. The higher accuracy can be harvested when lightpaths are provisioned with low margins; our results showed up to 47% reduction in required regenerators, a substantial savings in equipment cost.

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We quantify the error statistics and patterning effects in a 5x 40 Gbit/s WDM RZ-DBPSK SMF/DCF fibre link using hybrid Raman/EDFA amplification. We propose an adaptive constrained coding for the suppression of errors due to patterning effects. It is established, that this coding technique can greatly reduce the bit error rate (BER) value even for large BER (BER > 101). The proposed approach can be used in the combination with the forward error correction schemes (FEC) to correct the errors even when real channel BER is outside the FEC workspace.

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My dissertation has three chapters which develop and apply microeconometric tech- niques to empirically relevant problems. All the chapters examines the robustness issues (e.g., measurement error and model misspecification) in the econometric anal- ysis. The first chapter studies the identifying power of an instrumental variable in the nonparametric heterogeneous treatment effect framework when a binary treat- ment variable is mismeasured and endogenous. I characterize the sharp identified set for the local average treatment effect under the following two assumptions: (1) the exclusion restriction of an instrument and (2) deterministic monotonicity of the true treatment variable in the instrument. The identification strategy allows for general measurement error. Notably, (i) the measurement error is nonclassical, (ii) it can be endogenous, and (iii) no assumptions are imposed on the marginal distribution of the measurement error, so that I do not need to assume the accuracy of the measure- ment. Based on the partial identification result, I provide a consistent confidence interval for the local average treatment effect with uniformly valid size control. I also show that the identification strategy can incorporate repeated measurements to narrow the identified set, even if the repeated measurements themselves are endoge- nous. Using the the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972, I demonstrate that my new methodology can produce nontrivial bounds for the return to college attendance when attendance is mismeasured and endogenous.

The second chapter, which is a part of a coauthored project with Federico Bugni, considers the problem of inference in dynamic discrete choice problems when the structural model is locally misspecified. We consider two popular classes of estimators for dynamic discrete choice models: K-step maximum likelihood estimators (K-ML) and K-step minimum distance estimators (K-MD), where K denotes the number of policy iterations employed in the estimation problem. These estimator classes include popular estimators such as Rust (1987)’s nested fixed point estimator, Hotz and Miller (1993)’s conditional choice probability estimator, Aguirregabiria and Mira (2002)’s nested algorithm estimator, and Pesendorfer and Schmidt-Dengler (2008)’s least squares estimator. We derive and compare the asymptotic distributions of K- ML and K-MD estimators when the model is arbitrarily locally misspecified and we obtain three main results. In the absence of misspecification, Aguirregabiria and Mira (2002) show that all K-ML estimators are asymptotically equivalent regardless of the choice of K. Our first result shows that this finding extends to a locally misspecified model, regardless of the degree of local misspecification. As a second result, we show that an analogous result holds for all K-MD estimators, i.e., all K- MD estimator are asymptotically equivalent regardless of the choice of K. Our third and final result is to compare K-MD and K-ML estimators in terms of asymptotic mean squared error. Under local misspecification, the optimally weighted K-MD estimator depends on the unknown asymptotic bias and is no longer feasible. In turn, feasible K-MD estimators could have an asymptotic mean squared error that is higher or lower than that of the K-ML estimators. To demonstrate the relevance of our asymptotic analysis, we illustrate our findings using in a simulation exercise based on a misspecified version of Rust (1987) bus engine problem.

The last chapter investigates the causal effect of the Omnibus Budget Reconcil- iation Act of 1993, which caused the biggest change to the EITC in its history, on unemployment and labor force participation among single mothers. Unemployment and labor force participation are difficult to define for a few reasons, for example, be- cause of marginally attached workers. Instead of searching for the unique definition for each of these two concepts, this chapter bounds unemployment and labor force participation by observable variables and, as a result, considers various competing definitions of these two concepts simultaneously. This bounding strategy leads to partial identification of the treatment effect. The inference results depend on the construction of the bounds, but they imply positive effect on labor force participa- tion and negligible effect on unemployment. The results imply that the difference- in-difference result based on the BLS definition of unemployment can be misleading

due to misclassification of unemployment.

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Spectral CT using a photon counting x-ray detector (PCXD) shows great potential for measuring material composition based on energy dependent x-ray attenuation. Spectral CT is especially suited for imaging with K-edge contrast agents to address the otherwise limited contrast in soft tissues. We have developed a micro-CT system based on a PCXD. This system enables full spectrum CT in which the energy thresholds of the PCXD are swept to sample the full energy spectrum for each detector element and projection angle. Measurements provided by the PCXD, however, are distorted due to undesirable physical eects in the detector and are very noisy due to photon starvation. In this work, we proposed two methods based on machine learning to address the spectral distortion issue and to improve the material decomposition. This rst approach is to model distortions using an articial neural network (ANN) and compensate for the distortion in a statistical reconstruction. The second approach is to directly correct for the distortion in the projections. Both technique can be done as a calibration process where the neural network can be trained using 3D printed phantoms data to learn the distortion model or the correction model of the spectral distortion. This replaces the need for synchrotron measurements required in conventional technique to derive the distortion model parametrically which could be costly and time consuming. The results demonstrate experimental feasibility and potential advantages of ANN-based distortion modeling and correction for more accurate K-edge imaging with a PCXD. Given the computational eciency with which the ANN can be applied to projection data, the proposed scheme can be readily integrated into existing CT reconstruction pipelines.

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Atomic ions trapped in micro-fabricated surface traps can be utilized as a physical platform with which to build a quantum computer. They possess many of the desirable qualities of such a device, including high fidelity state preparation and readout, universal logic gates, long coherence times, and can be readily entangled with each other through photonic interconnects. The use of optical cavities integrated with trapped ion qubits as a photonic interface presents the possibility for order of magnitude improvements in performance in several key areas of their use in quantum computation. The first part of this thesis describes the design and fabrication of a novel surface trap for integration with an optical cavity. The trap is custom made on a highly reflective mirror surface and includes the capability of moving the ion trap location along all three trap axes with nanometer scale precision. The second part of this thesis demonstrates the suitability of small micro-cavities formed from laser ablated fused silica substrates with radii of curvature in the 300-500 micron range for use with the mirror trap as part of an integrated ion trap cavity system. Quantum computing applications for such a system include dramatic improvements in the photonic entanglement rate up to 10 kHz, the qubit measurement time down to 1 microsecond, and the measurement error rates down to the 10e-5 range. The final part of this thesis details a performance simulator for exploring the physical resource requirements and performance demands to scale such a quantum computer to sizes capable of performing quantum algorithms beyond the limits of classical computation.

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The study examines the short-run and long-run causality running from real economic growth to real foreign direct investment inflows (RFDI). Other variables such as education (involving combination of primary, secondary and tertiary enrolment as a proxy to education), real development finance, unskilled labour, to real RFDI inflows are included in the study. The time series data covering the period of 1983 -2013 are examined. First, I applied Augmented Dicky-Fuller (ADF) technique to test for unit root in variables. Findings shows all variables integrated of order one [I(1)]. Thereafter, Johansen Co-integration Test (JCT) was conducted to establish the relationship among variables. Both trace and maximum Eigen value at 5% level of significance indicate 3 co-integrated equations. Vector error correction method (VECM) was applied to capture short and long-run causality running from education, economic growth, real development finance, and unskilled labour to real foreign direct investment inflows in the Republic of Rwanda. Findings shows no short-run causality running from education, real development finance, real GDP and unskilled labour to real FDI inflows, however there were existence of long-run causality. This can be interpreted that, in the short-run; education, development finance, finance and economic growth does not influence inflows of foreign direct investment in Rwanda; but it does in long-run. From the policy perspective, the Republic of Rwanda should focus more on long term goal of investing in education to improve human capital, undertake policy reforms that promotes economic growth, in addition to promoting good governance to attract development finance – especially from Nordics countries (particularly Norway and Denmark).

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Data from the World Federation of Exchanges show that Brazil’s Sao Paulo stock exchange is one of the largest worldwide in terms of market value. Thus, the objective of this study is to obtain univariate and bivariate forecasting models based on intraday data from the futures and spot markets of the BOVESPA index. The interest is to verify if there exist arbitrage opportunities in Brazilian financial market. To this end, three econometric forecasting models were built: ARFIMA, vector autoregressive (VAR), and vector error correction (VEC). Furthermore, it presents the results of a Granger causality test for the aforementioned series. This type of study shows that it is important to identify arbitrage opportunities in financial markets and, in particular, in the application of these models on data of this nature. In terms of the forecasts made with these models, VEC showed better results. The causality test shows that futures BOVESPA index Granger causes spot BOVESPA index. This result may indicate arbitrage opportunities in Brazil.