Les derniers écueils vers la parité politique en Belgique: Une analyse des élections régionales de 2004

In Belgium, gender-parity has been compulsory for all party lists (in local, regional, federal and European elections) for several years. As a result, the proportion of women has risen from a fourth up to a third of the deputies. Yet, strict parity is still far from realised. This article seeks to establish what causes this glass ceiling, namely the parties' reluctance to place female candidates in the top positions or even as the front-runner. In a proportional representation system with half-open lists, and especially when the constituencies are small, this automatically leads to a smaller proportion of women among the elected deputies. One important reason for the parties' reluctance to rank female candidates higher is their assumption that women are less effective as "election locomotives" than men. However, the analysis of the Belgian election results makes clear that this is not the case. Female candidates in top positions are as successful as their male counterparts. © (2008) Swiss Political Science Review.

Distributed belief revision as applied within a descriptive model of jury deliberations

Belief revision is a well-research topic within AI. We argue that the new model of distributed belief revision as discussed here is suitable for general modelling of judicial decision making, along with extant approach as known from jury research. The new approach to belief revision is of general interest, whenever attitudes to information are to be simulated within a multi-agent environment with agents holding local beliefs yet by interaction with, and influencing, other agents who are deliberating collectively. In the approach proposed, it's the entire group of agents, not an external supervisor, who integrate the different opinions. This is achieved through an election mechanism, The principle of "priority to the incoming information" as known from AI models of belief revision are problematic, when applied to factfinding by a jury. The present approach incorporates a computable model for local belief revision, such that a principle of recoverability is adopted. By this principle, any previously held belief must belong to the current cognitive state if consistent with it. For the purposes of jury simulation such a model calls for refinement. Yet we claim, it constitutes a valid basis for an open system where other AI functionalities (or outer stiumuli) could attempt to handle other aspects of the deliberation which are more specifi to legal narrative, to argumentation in court, and then to the debate among the jurors.

Emergence: a paradigm for robust and scalable distributed applications

Natural distributed systems are adaptive, scalable and fault-tolerant. Emergence science describes how higher-level self-regulatory behaviour arises in natural systems from many participants following simple rulesets. Emergence advocates simple communication models, autonomy and independence, enhancing robustness and self-stabilization. High-quality distributed applications such as autonomic systems must satisfy the appropriate nonfunctional requirements which include scalability, efficiency, robustness, low-latency and stability. However the traditional design of distributed applications, especially in terms of the communication strategies employed, can introduce compromises between these characteristics. This paper discusses ways in which emergence science can be applied to distributed computing, avoiding some of the compromises associated with traditionally-designed applications. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this paradigm, an emergent election algorithm is described and its performance evaluated. The design incorporates nondeterministic behaviour. The resulting algorithm has very low communication complexity, and is simultaneously very stable, scalable and robust.

Natural inspiration for self-adaptive systems

The emergent behaviour of autonomic systems, together with the scale of their deployment, impedes prediction of the full range of configuration and failure scenarios; thus it is not possible to devise management and recovery strategies to cover all possible outcomes. One solution to this problem is to embed self-managing and self-healing abilities into such applications. Traditional design approaches favour determinism, even when unnecessary. This can lead to conflicts between the non-functional requirements. Natural systems such as ant colonies have evolved cooperative, finely tuned emergent behaviours which allow the colonies to function at very large scale and to be very robust, although non-deterministic. Simple pheromone-exchange communication systems are highly efficient and are a major contribution to their success. This paper proposes that we look to natural systems for inspiration when designing architecture and communications strategies, and presents an election algorithm which encapsulates non-deterministic behaviour to achieve high scalability, robustness and stability.

Postcolonial futures: postcolonial literature and the Obama moment

Since the late 1970s the western academy has encouraged the development of postcolonial literary theory and the formulation of a postcolonial literary canon existing outside the prescriptive narratives of the ‘mother’ country and empire. Having lost faith in the binary oppositions underpinning such narratives, we turned to alternative fictions that contested the construction of the ‘other’, the world divided between the ‘West and the Rest’. The publication of Edward Said’s Orientalism in 1978 marked the beginning of the discipline now known as postcolonial studies with its new ways of understanding ‘the west’s’ relationship with ‘the east’ and, by extension, all the former colonies of empire. Despite these radical origins, however, postcolonialism’s more recent emphasis on the psychological and its affirmation of the hybrid text and self has, for many, served to obscure real economic social realities that have very little to do with the magical or wondrous textual expression of a postcolonial identity. This paper considers problems associated with defining the postcolonial and proposes that, in a literary context, we broaden its meaning to include texts traditionally outside the category of postcolonial literature. To extend the meaning of postcolonial is timely as we are now witnessing its relocation from ‘margin’ to ‘centre’ with the election of Barack Obama. This moment may be seen as a disruption of conventional understandings of what constitutes postcolonial literature, essentially as oppositional discourse that could only define itself as peripheral to, or ‘post’, metropolitan and economic concerns. [From the Author]

Bolsa Familia Program and school enrolment: An analysis of the 2010 Brazilian demographic census

The Bolsa Família Program goal is to promote social development and poverty reduction, through the direct transfer of conditional cash, in association with other social programs. This study aims to analyze whether Bolsa Família had an association with children’s school attendance, which is one of the educational conditions of the program. Our main hypothesis is that children living in households receiving Bolsa Família had greater chances of attending school. Data from the Ministry of Social Development and Combating Famine indicated that children living in households with Bolsa Família had greater school enrolment levels. By using data from the 2010 Demographic Census, collected by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), some descriptive analyzes and binary logistic regression models were performed for different thresholds of household per capita income. These estimates were made by comparing children who lived in households receiving Bolsa Família to those children not receiving the program. We took into consideration characteristics about the household, mothers, and children. The results were clustered by the municipality of residence of the child. In all income thresholds, children benefi ting from Bolsa Família were more likely to be enrolled in school, compared to children not receiving the benefi t.

Crystal structure and ab initio calculations of a cyano-carbamimidic acid ethyl ester

The structure of one tautomer (amine form) of cyano-carbamimidic acid ethyl ester or (amino-ethoxy-methylidene)aminoformonitrile (CAS: 13947-84-7) was determined by single crystal X-ray diffraction. Ab initio quantum chemical calculations at the B3LYP, MP2 and G3 levels were performed to investigate the stability and the formation of the different tautomers and conformers. The calculations indicate that the amine form is the more stable tautomer, showing a high degree of election conjugation. The most stable amine conformer located by the calculations corresponds to the crystallized structure. On the contrary, in the less stable imine form, the conjugation is separated by a N2-C2 single bond. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Order without law? An anatomy of Hamas security: The Executive Force (Tanfithya)

In the struggle to assert and consolidate its power, the Hamas movement of the Palestinian territories has devised several strategies for control. In recognition that control of security remains a key goal for any power-seeker, following its election victory in January 2006, Hamas entered into a fierce and ultimately successful conflict with Fatah for control of the Palestinian Authority Ministry of Interior and Palestinian Security Forces (PSF) in the Gaza Strip. One way in which Hamas was able to achieve this objective was through the creation of its own internal ‘police’ force called the Tanfithya (Executive Force or EF). This article details an anatomy of the EF and the implications of this force in terms of Hamas' confrontation with opponents and its attempts at governance. It also examines the extent to which the EF can be considered to be a model of Islamic policing and its impact on secular rivals in the Gaza Strip.

Northern Ireland: The Politics of Constraint

The article surveys the interrupted experience of devolution in Northern Ireland since 1999 and draws a number of comparisons between the first devolved Assembly and Executive and their successors elected in 2007. It underlines the significance of the changed political, electoral and paramilitary context in the period leading up to the 2007 Assembly election which, together with a number of procedural changes effected by the 2006 St Andrews Agreement, enabled the restoration of power-sharing devolution to occur. Against the background of its legislative and policy record and the wider altered state of Northern Ireland, it concludes that the contrived consociational model of governance can work, up to a point, but perhaps as much because of the politics of constraint than consociationalism's much vaunted promise to reflect and engender the politics of accommodation.

Realising political equality: the European Court of Human Rights and positive obligations in a democracy'

The European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) speaks of the importance of an “effective political democracy” in its Preamble, though it is only in Article 3 of Protocol 1 (P1-3) that we find a right to free elections. This paper discusses the role of “positive obligations” under P1-3. This paper outlines the positive obligations in P1-3 focusing on obligations where the state is required to do more than just change the law. This may mean providing resources or facilities, adopting regulatory frameworks or creating new institutions. The paper highlights specific positive obligations that need to be further developed in the jurisprudence of the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR). Sometimes these can be developed by analogy with positive obligations recognised in other areas of ECtHR jurisprudence. However, beyond these cases, states should ensure that members of vulnerable and disadvantaged minorities are able to participate in the electoral process and should ensure that dominant political groups cannot abuse their political power to exclude other parties unfairly. This is necessary to realise equal political rights. The second section of this paper sketches some preliminary points about the Strasbourg institutions’ approach to P1-3. After that, the third section identifies circumstances where the ECtHR should apply a more intense scrutiny in P1-3 cases. The fourth, fifth and sixth sections look at positive obligations relating to the right to vote, the right to run for election and the regulation of political parties.

James Croll, metaphysical geologist

James Croll (1821–90) occupies a prominent position in the history of physical geology, and his pioneering work on the causes of long-term climate change has been widely discussed. During his life he benefited from the patronage of leading men of science; his participation in scientific debates was widely acknowledged, not least through his election as a Fellow of the Royal Society in 1876. For all that, the intellectual contribution that Croll himself considered to be of most significance—his articles and two books on metaphysics—has attracted very little attention. In addressing this neglect, it is argued here that Croll's interest in metaphysics, grounded in his commitment to a Calvinist form of Christianity, was central to his life and thought. Examining together Croll's geophysical and metaphysical writings offers a different and fruitful way of understanding his scientific career and points to the wider significance of metaphysics in late-Victorian scientific culture.

Attitudes towards women in politics: Gender, generation and party identification in Ireland

This article analyzes the effects of gender, generation and party support towards a greater inclusion of women in politics in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. It explores attitudes on this issue using the same question in the Irish National Election Study (INES) and the Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey (NILT). The article documents a consistent gender gap in both polities that persists across the generations, despite controls for socio-demographic factors. It also reveals an unexpected generational effect that we explain as the enduring legacy of politicization to women’s rights during the 1970s. Support among party identifiers for more women in politics follows predictable lines, yet gender and generational patterns persist. The gender gap and generational patterns found in the two polities on the island provide reason for concern among those committed to gender equality in representation.

After the Party the Hangover?: An Analysis of ‘Post-Celtic Tiger’ Ireland in the Light of the February 2011 elections’

The election of February 2011 was dominated by the International Monetary Fund/European Central Bank bailout of November 2010, the state of the public finances, the ongoing Irish banking crisis, and the disastrous state of the economy with rising unemployment, emigration and collapsing international competiveness. After years of phenomenal economic growth (at least as measured by orthodox economic measurements such as gross domestic product (GDP) and foreign direct investment), known as the 'Celtic Tiger‘, during which a bloated construction industry accounted for a quarter of GDP and Irish banks sank nearly a third of their lending in construction projects, Ireland has entered a 'post-Celtic Tiger‘ era. This article offers a critical analysis outlining some political, economic and cultural issues of this election as heralding a decisive stage in the 'post-Celtic Tiger' development of the Republic of Ireland, and suggests that what is required at this present historical moment is that a different development model be articulated by the Irish state and wider society.

The Veil of Kyoto and the politics of greenhouse gas mitigation in Australia

This paper investigates how the Kyoto Protocol has framed political discourse and policy development of greenhouse gas mitigation in Australia. We argue that ‘Kyoto’ has created a veil over the climate issue in Australia in a number of ways. Firstly, its symbolic power has distracted attention from actual environmental outcomes while its accounting rules obscure the real level of carbon emissions and structural trends at the nation-state level. Secondly, a public policy tendency to commit to far off emission targets as a compromise to implementing legislation in the short term has also emerged on the back of Kyoto-style targets. Thirdly, Kyoto’s international flexibility mechanisms can lead to the diversion of mitigation investment away from the nation-state implementing carbon legislation. A final concern of the Kyoto approach is how it has shifted focus away from Australia as the world’s largest coal exporter towards China, its primary customer. While we recognise the crucial role aspirational targets and timetables play in capturing the imagination and coordinating action across nations, our central theme is that ‘Kyoto’ has overshadowed the implementation of other policies in Australia. Understanding how ‘Kyoto’ has framed debate and policy is thus crucial to promoting environmentally effective mitigation measures as nation-states move forward from COP15 in Copenhagen to forge a post-Kyoto international agreement. Recent elections in 2009 in Japan and America and developments at COP15 suggest positive scope for international action on climate change. However, the lesson from the 2007 election and subsequent events in Australia is a caution against elevating the symbolism of ‘Kyoto-style’ targets and timetables above the need for implementation of mitigation policies at the nation-state level

Transforming the Irish Presidency: Activist Presidents and Gender Politics, 1990-2011

The election of two energetic women in succession to the office of President of Ireland challenged the notion that the presidency was a long-service reward for retiring politicians. Mary Robinson and Mary McAleese broke the male domination of the office, interpreted its functions in a more dynamic manner, and utilised the ‘soft power’ of the presidency with skill. Yet, as individuals they were very different in political focus, experience and ideological disposition. This article charts their respective backgrounds and discusses the context in which each woman came to the presidency. It explores their vision for the office. Focusing on the potential for harnessing the soft power of the presidency, it argues that Robinson adopted a classical representative view of the office, whereas McAleese chose a facilitatory style of leadership. The article concludes that in their different ways, Robinson and McAleese contributed to reshaping the office, utilising its symbolic potential and soft power to make it a more meaningful and fit-for-purpose political institution for the twenty-first century. © 2012 Political Studies Association of Ireland.