Multivariate ARIMA Compositional Time Series Analysis

A compositional time series is obtained when a compositional data vector is observed atdifferent points in time. Inherently, then, a compositional time series is a multivariatetime series with important constraints on the variables observed at any instance in time.Although this type of data frequently occurs in situations of real practical interest, atrawl through the statistical literature reveals that research in the field is very much in itsinfancy and that many theoretical and empirical issues still remain to be addressed. Anyappropriate statistical methodology for the analysis of compositional time series musttake into account the constraints which are not allowed for by the usual statisticaltechniques available for analysing multivariate time series. One general approach toanalyzing compositional time series consists in the application of an initial transform tobreak the positive and unit sum constraints, followed by the analysis of the transformedtime series using multivariate ARIMA models. In this paper we discuss the use of theadditive log-ratio, centred log-ratio and isometric log-ratio transforms. We also presentresults from an empirical study designed to explore how the selection of the initialtransform affects subsequent multivariate ARIMA modelling as well as the quality ofthe forecasts

Compositional Time Series: An Application

The composition of the labour force is an important economic factor for a country.Often the changes in proportions of different groups are of interest.I this paper we study a monthly compositional time series from the Swedish LabourForce Survey from 1994 to 2005. Three models are studied: the ILR-transformed series,the ILR-transformation of the compositional differenced series of order 1, and the ILRtransformationof the compositional differenced series of order 12. For each of thethree models a VAR-model is fitted based on the data 1994-2003. We predict the timeseries 15 steps ahead and calculate 95 % prediction regions. The predictions of thethree models are compared with actual values using MAD and MSE and the predictionregions are compared graphically in a ternary time series plot.We conclude that the first, and simplest, model possesses the best predictive power ofthe three models

Novel (60%) and recurrent (40%) androgen receptor gene mutations in a series of 59 patients with a 46,XY disorder of sex development.

BACKGROUND Androgen receptor (AR) gene mutations are the most frequent cause of 46,XY disorders of sex development (DSD) and are associated with a variety of phenotypes, ranging from phenotypic women [complete androgen insensitivity syndrome (CAIS)] to milder degrees of undervirilization (partial form or PAIS) or men with only infertility (mild form or MAIS). OBJECTIVE The aim of the study was to characterize the contribution of the AR gene to the molecular cause of 46,XY DSD in a series of Spanish patients. SETTING We studied a series of 133 index patients with 46,XY DSD in whom gonads were differentiated as testes, with phenotypes including varying degrees of undervirilization, and in whom the AR gene was the first candidate for a molecular analysis. METHODS The AR gene was sequenced (exons 1 to 8 with intronic flanking regions) in all patients and in family members of 61% of AR-mutated gene patients. RESULTS AR gene mutations were found in 59 individuals (44.4% of index patients), of whom 46 (78%) were CAIS and 13 (22%) PAIS. Fifty-seven different mutations were found: 21.0% located in exon 1, 15.8% in exons 2 and 3, 57.9% in exons 4-8, and 5.3% intronic. Twenty-three mutations (40.4%) had been previously described and 34 (59.6%) were novel. CONCLUSIONS AR gene mutation is the most frequent cause of 46,XY DSD, with a clearly higher frequency in the complete phenotype. Mutations spread along the whole coding sequence, including exon 1. This series shows that 60% of mutations detected during the period 2002-2009 were novel.

Increased epidermal expression and absence of mutations in CARD14 in a series of patients with sporadic pityriasis rubra pilaris.

Pityriasis rubra pilaris (PRP; MIM 173200) encompasses a spectrum of rare chronic papulosquamous inflammatory disorders, which have been classified into 6 subtypes(1) . Clinical features include palmoplantar keratoderma and follicular hyperkeratotic papules which coalesce into large, scaly, erythematous plaques, with frequent progression to exfoliative erythroderma. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Musical training intensity yields opposite effects on grey matter density in cognitive versus sensorimotor networks.

Using optimized voxel-based morphometry, we performed grey matter density analyses on 59 age-, sex- and intelligence-matched young adults with three distinct, progressive levels of musical training intensity or expertise. Structural brain adaptations in musicians have been repeatedly demonstrated in areas involved in auditory perception and motor skills. However, musical activities are not confined to auditory perception and motor performance, but are entangled with higher-order cognitive processes. In consequence, neuronal systems involved in such higher-order processing may also be shaped by experience-driven plasticity. We modelled expertise as a three-level regressor to study possible linear relationships of expertise with grey matter density. The key finding of this study resides in a functional dissimilarity between areas exhibiting increase versus decrease of grey matter as a function of musical expertise. Grey matter density increased with expertise in areas known for their involvement in higher-order cognitive processing: right fusiform gyrus (visual pattern recognition), right mid orbital gyrus (tonal sensitivity), left inferior frontal gyrus (syntactic processing, executive function, working memory), left intraparietal sulcus (visuo-motor coordination) and bilateral posterior cerebellar Crus II (executive function, working memory) and in auditory processing: left Heschl's gyrus. Conversely, grey matter density decreased with expertise in bilateral perirolandic and striatal areas that are related to sensorimotor function, possibly reflecting high automation of motor skills. Moreover, a multiple regression analysis evidenced that grey matter density in the right mid orbital area and the inferior frontal gyrus predicted accuracy in detecting fine-grained incongruities in tonal music.

Series enlazadas de empleo y VAB para España, 1955-2010 (RegDat_Nac versión 3.0)

En este trabajo se elaboran series de distintos agregados de empleo y de VAB a precios corrientes y constantes para el conjunto de España durante el período 1955-2010. Las series se construyen mediante el enlace de diversas bases de la CNE y de la Contabilidad Trimestral, introduciéndose también una corrección tentativa para reconciliar las series de empleo de la CNE con las de la EPA.

Series enlazadas de los principales agregados nacionales de la EPA,1964-2009 (RegDat_EPA_nac_v10)

En el presente trabajo se recopilan y extienden diversas series históricas de los principales agregados nacionales de la Encuesta de Población Activa (EPA) y se construyen nuevas series anuales homogéneas de las mismas variables para el período 1964-2009 corrigiendo algunas de las rupturas que persisten en las series históricas más recientes del INE.

Series enlazadas de empleo y VAB para España, 1955-2010 (RegDat_Nac versión 3.1)

En este trabajo se elaboran series homogéneas de distintos agregados de empleo y de VAB a precios corrientes y constantes para el conjunto de España durante el período 1955-2010. Las series se construyen mediante el enlace de diversas bases de la CNE y de la Contabilidad Trimestral, introduciéndose también una corrección tentativa para reconciliar las series de empleo de la CNE con las de la EPA.

Tapia's syndrome: pathogenetic mechanisms, diagnostic management, and proper treatment: a case series.

BACKGROUND Tapia's syndrome is an uncommon disease described in 1904 by Antonio Garcia Tapia, a Spanish otolaryngologist. It is characterized by concomitant paralysis of the hypoglossal (XIIth) and pneumogastric (Xth) nerves. Only 69 cases have been described in the literature. Typically, the reported patients presented with a history of orotracheal intubation. Common symptoms are dysphonia, tongue deviation toward the affected side, lingual motility disturbance, and swallowing difficulty. CASE PRESENTATION In the report, we describe three cases of Tapia's syndrome in three Caucasian patients who underwent surgery with general anesthesia. Two of these patients underwent neck abscess drainage, and the third had an open reduction of a shoulder fracture. The clinical symptoms of Tapia's syndrome appeared after extubation. All three of our patients recovered their lost function at 3 months after diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS We underline the importance of performing airway endoscopy and a specific program of swallowing rehabilitation for the proper management of Tapia's syndrome.

Safety and efficacy in gamma knife radiosurgery for trigeminal neuralgia due to megadolichbasilar artery compression: a prospective series of 29 consecutive patients

Purpose: To analyse prospectively the long-term results of Gamma Knife surgery (GKS) in patients with trigeminal neuralgia secondary to megadolichobasilar artery (MBA). Methods: Between December 1992 and November 2010, 33 consecutive patients presenting with ITN secondary to MBA were operated by GKS and followed prospectively in Timone University Hospital. The follow up is at least of 1 year in 29 patients. The median age was 74.90 years (range 51 to 90). The GKS typically was performed using MR and CT imaging guidance and a single 4 mm isocenter. The median of the prescription dose (at the 100%) was 90 Gy (range 80 to 90). The target was placed on the cisternal portion of the Vth nerve. Clinical and dosimetric parameters were analyzed. GKS was the first surgical procedure in 23 patients (79.31%). Results: The median follow- up period was 46.12 months (range 12.95 to 157.93). All the 29 patients (100%) were initially pain free in a median time of 13.5 days (range 0 to 240). The probability of remaining pain free at 0.5, 1, 2 years was 93.1%, 79.3% and 75.7% respectively, reaching at this time the flat part of the curve. Seven patients (24.13%) experienced a recurrence with a median delay of 10.75 months (range 3.77 to 12.62). The actuarial rate of recurrence was not higher than in our population with essential TN although atypical pain was associated with a much higher risk of recurrence (HR= 6.92, p= 0.0117). The hypoesthesia actuarial rates at 0.5 years was 4.3% and at 1 year reach 13% and remains stable till 12 years with a median delay of onset of 7 (5, 12) months. Female patients had a statistically much lower probability of developing a facial numbness (p of 0.03). No patient reported a bothersome hypoesthesia. Conclusion: Retrogaserian, high dose GKS, turned out to be very safe with only 13.04% hypoesthesia, which was never disabling (0%), while achieving high quality pain control. The majority of the patients demonstrated a prolonged effect of radiosurgery in absence of any trigeminal nerve disturbance.

Palliative care and prehospital emergency medicine: analysis of a case series.

Palliative care, which is intended to keep patients at home as long as possible, is increasingly proposed for patients who live at home, with their family, or in retirement homes. Although their condition is expected to have a lethal evolution, the patients-or more often their families or entourages-are sometimes confronted with sudden situations of respiratory distress, convulsions, hemorrhage, coma, anxiety, or pain. Prehospital emergency services are therefore often confronted with palliative care situations, situations in which medical teams are not skilled and therefore frequently feel awkward.We conducted a retrospective study about cases of palliative care situations that were managed by prehospital emergency physicians (EPs) over a period of 8 months in 2012, in the urban region of Lausanne in the State of Vaud, Switzerland.The prehospital EPs managed 1586 prehospital emergencies during the study period. We report 4 situations of respiratory distress or neurological disorders in advanced cancer patients, highlighting end-of-life and palliative care situations that may be encountered by prehospital emergency services.The similarity of the cases, the reasons leading to the involvement of prehospital EPs, and the ethical dilemma illustrated by these situations are discussed. These situations highlight the need for more formal education in palliative care for EPs and prehospital emergency teams, and the need to fully communicate the planning and implementation of palliative care with patients and patients' family members.