The economic determinants of the Brazilian nominal term structure of interest rates

The purpose of this study is to identify the effects of monetary policy and macroeconomic shocks on the dynamics of the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. We estimate a near-VAR model under the identification scheme proposed by Christiano et al. (1996, 1999). The results resemble those of the US economy: monetary policy shocks that flatten the term structure of interest rates. We find that monetary policy shocks in Brazil explain a significantly larger share of the dynamics of the term structure than in the USA. Finally, we analyse the importance of standard macroeconomic variables (e. g. GDP, inflation and measure of country risk) to the dynamics of the term structure in Brazil.

Petroleum royalties and regional development in Brazil: The economic growth of recipient towns

In 1997, Brazil approved law n(cr) 9478, establishing new rules for sharing petroleum royalties with Brazilian municipalities. The goal of this paper is to evaluate whether royalties distributed under the new law have contributed for the development of benefited municipalities. For that the difference-indifferences estimator (diff-in-diff) is used, which compares the evolution of the economic product into the municipality affected by the new law with the unaffected ones, by exploring the new legislation as an exogenous change. The data refer to the municipal gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate before and after the event. Results are surprising, showing that royalty receivers grew less than municipalities that did not receive such resources. The difference is small but statistically significant. In general, an increase of one real in royalties per capita reduces the growth rate of the municipal product in 0.002 percentile points. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing the ex ante economic impacts of transportation infrastructure policies in Brazil

This paper uses a fully operational inter-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model implemented for the Brazilian economy, based on previous work by Haddad and Hewings, in order to assess the likely economic effects of road transportation policy changes in Brazil. Among the features embedded in this framework, modelling of external scale economies and transportation costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. The model is calibrated for 109 regions. The explicit modelling of transportation costs built into the inter-regional CGE model, based on origin-destination flows, which takes into account the spatial structure of the Brazilian economy, creates the capability of integrating the inter-regional CGE model with a geo-coded transportation network model enhancing the potential of the framework in understanding the role of infrastructure on regional development. The transportation model used is the so-called Highway Development and Management, developed by the World Bank, implemented using the software TransCAD. Further extensions of the current model specification for integrating other features of transport planning in a continental industrialising country like Brazil are discussed, with the goal of building a bridge between conventional transport planning practices and the innovative use of CGE models. In order to illustrate the analytical power of the integrated system, the authors present a set of simulations, which evaluate the ex ante economic impacts of physical/qualitative changes in the Brazilian road network (for example, a highway improvement), in accordance with recent policy developments in Brazil. Rather than providing a critical evaluation of this debate, they intend to emphasise the likely structural impacts of such policies. They expect that the results will reinforce the need to better specifying spatial interactions in inter-regional CGE models.

Prevalence and comorbidity of behavioral problems of children aged three to six: Results of the Braunschweiger Kindergartenstudie

Prevalence and comorbidity of behavioral problems of children aged three to six: Results of the Braunschweiger Kindergartenstudie Objectives: To analyze the frequency of behavioral and emotional problems and comorbidity of kindergarten children in Braunschweig as rated by their parents. Method: The analysis is part of the Braunschweiger Kindergartenstudie. In a sample of N = 809 children aged three to six the parents rated their children using a modified version of the Child Behavior Checklist/CBCL 4-18. Results: The prevalence rates range from 0.5% to 5.0%. The most frequent behavioral problems in kindergarten children were aggressive behavior and attention problems, followed by social problems. The study also provides bidirectional comorbidity rates. Conclusion: Finally the prevalence rates and the implications of the findings for prevention of behavioral problems in children are discussed.

Economic performance of Brazilian manufacturing firms: a counterfactual analysis of innovation impacts

This article assesses if innovators outperform non-innovators in Brazilian manufacturing during 1996-2002. To do so, we begin with a simple theoretical model and test the impacts of technological innovation (treatment) on innovating firms (treated) by employing propensity score matching techniques. Correcting for the survivorship bias in the period, it was verified that, on an average, the accomplishment of technological innovations produces positive and significant impacts on the employment, the net revenue, the labor productivity, the capital productivity, and market share of the firms. However, this result was not observed for the mark-up. Especially, the net revenue reflects more robustly the impacts of the innovations. Quantitatively speaking, innovating firms experienced a 10.8-12.5 percentage points (p.p. henceforth) higher growth on employment, a 18.1-21.7 p.p. higher growth on the net revenue, a 10.8-11.9 p.p. higher growth on labor productivity, a 11.8-12.0 p.p. higher growth on capital productivity, and a 19.9-24.3 p.p. higher growth on their market share, relative to the average of the non-innovating firms in the control group. It was also observed that the conjunction of product and process innovations, relative to other forms of innovation, presents the stronger impacts on the performance of Brazilian firms.

Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Teen Triple P: A universal approach to reducing risk factors for behavioural and emotional problems in adolescents at the transition to high school

Teen Triple P is a multilevel system of intervention that is designed to provide parents with specific strategies to promote the positive development of their teenage children as they make the transition into high school and through puberty. The program is based on a combination of education about the developmental needs of adolescents, skills training to improve communication and problem-solving, plus specific modules to deal with common problems encountered by parents and adolescents that can escalate into major conflict and violence. It is designed to increase the engagement of parents of adolescent and pre-adolescent children by providing them with easy access to evidencebased parenting advice and support. This paper presents data collected as part of a survey of over 1400 students in first year high school at 9 Brisbane schools. The survey instrument was constructed to obtain students' reports about behaviour which is known to be associated with their health and wellbeing, and also on the extent to which their parents promoted or discouraged such behaviour at home, at school, and in their social and recreational activities in the wider community. Selected data from the survey were extracted and presented to parents at a series of parenting seminars held at the schools to promote appropriate parenting of teenagers. The objectives were to provide parents with accurate data about teenagers' behaviour, and about teenagers' reports of how they perceived their parents' behaviour. Normative data on parent and teenager behaviour will be presented from the survey as well as psychometric data relating to the reliability and validity of this new measure. Implications of this strategy for increasing parent engagement in parenting programs that aim to reduce behavioural and emotional problems in adolescents will be discussed.

Numerical modelling of chemical effects of magma solidification problems in porous rocks

The solidification of intruded magma in porous rocks can result in the following two consequences: (1) the heat release due to the solidification of the interface between the rock and intruded magma and (2) the mass release of the volatile fluids in the region where the intruded magma is solidified into the rock. Traditionally, the intruded magma solidification problem is treated as a moving interface (i.e. the solidification interface between the rock and intruded magma) problem to consider these consequences in conventional numerical methods. This paper presents an alternative new approach to simulate thermal and chemical consequences/effects of magma intrusion in geological systems, which are composed of porous rocks. In the proposed new approach and algorithm, the original magma solidification problem with a moving boundary between the rock and intruded magma is transformed into a new problem without the moving boundary but with the proposed mass source and physically equivalent heat source. The major advantage in using the proposed equivalent algorithm is that a fixed mesh of finite elements with a variable integration time-step can be employed to simulate the consequences and effects of the intruded magma solidification using the conventional finite element method. The correctness and usefulness of the proposed equivalent algorithm have been demonstrated by a benchmark magma solidification problem. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Prevalence of Alcohol-Related Problems in an Elderly Population and Their Association With Cognitive Impairment and Dementia

Background: Studies investigating the association between alcohol use and cognitive disorders in the elderly population have produced divergent results. Moreover, the role of alcohol in cognitive dysfunction is not clear. The aims of this study were to estimate the prevalence of alcohol-related problems in an elderly population from Brazil and to investigate their association with cognitive and functional impairment (CFI) and dementia. Methods: A community-based cross-sectional study was performed. A sample of 1,145 elderly people was examined in 2 phases. Several instruments were utilized in the first phase: the CAGE questionnaire was used to identify potential cases of alcohol-related problems, and a screening test for dementia was used to estimate CFI. The CAMDEX interview (Cambridge Examination) and DSM-IV (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition) criteria were used for the clinical diagnosis of dementia in the second phase. Results: ""Heavy alcohol use"" (CAGE >= 2) was found in 92 subjects (prevalence: 8.2%). It was associated with gender (males, p < 0.001), low education (only in females, p = 0.002), and low socioeconomic level (p = 0.001, in females; p = 0.002, in males). The Mini Mental State Examination exhibited a nonlinear relationship with alcohol-related problems in females; ""mild-moderate alcohol use"" (CAGE < 2) presented the highest score. A significant association between alcohol-related problems and cognitive dysfunction was found only in females. ""Heavy alcohol use"" was associated with higher CFI and dementia rates compared to ""mild-moderate alcohol use"" (p = 0.003 and p < 0.001, respectively). ""Mild-moderate alcohol use"" had a tendency of association with lower CFI and dementia rates when compared to ""no alcohol use"" (p = 0.063 and 0.050, respectively). Conclusion: Our findings suggest that alcohol use does not have a linear relationship with cognitive decline.

Effectiveness of the CAGE questionnaire, gamma-glutamyltransferase and mean corpuscular volume of red blood cells as markers for alcohol-related problems in the workplace

Objective: To evaluate the usefulness of gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) and mean corpuscular volume (MCV), as well as that of the CAGE questionnaire, in workplace screening for alcohol abuse/dependence. Methods: A total of 183 male employees were submitted to structured interviews (Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV 2.0 and CAGE questionnaire). Blood samples were collected. Diagnostic accuracy and odds ratio were determined for the CAGE, GGT and MCV. Results: The CAGE questionnaire presented the best sensitivity for alcohol dependence (91%; specificity, 87.8%) and for alcohol abuse (87.5%, specificity, 80.9%), which increased when the questionnaire was used in combination with GGT (sensitivity, 100% and 87.5%, respectively; specificity, 68% and 61.5, respectively). CAGE positive results and/or alterations in GGT were less likely to occur among employees not presenting alcohol abuse/ dependence than among those presenting such abuse (OR for CAGE = 13, p < 0.05; OR for CAGE-GGT = 11, p < 0.05) or dependence (OR for CAGE = 76, p < 0.0 1; OR for GGT = 5, p < 0.0 1). Employees not presenting alcohol abuse/dependence were also several times more likely to present negative CAGE or GGT results. Conclusions: The use short, simple questionnaires, combined with that of low-cost biochemical markers, such as GGT, can serve as an initial screening for alcohol-related problems, especially for employees in hazardous occupations. The data provided can serve to corroborate clinical findings. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.