Aseismic deformation in subduction megathrusts : central Andes and north-east Japan

We aim to characterize fault slip behavior during all stages of the seismic cycle in subduction megathrust environments with the eventual goal of understanding temporal and spatial variations of fault zone rheology, and to infer possible causal relationships between inter-, co- and post-seismic slip, as well as implications for earthquake and tsunami hazard. In particular we focus on analyzing aseismic deformation occurring during inter-seismic and post-seismic periods of the seismic cycle. We approach the problem using both Bayesian and optimization techniques. The Bayesian approach allows us to completely characterize the model parameter space by searching a posteriori estimates of the range of allowable models, to easily implement any kind of physically plausible a priori information and to perform the inversion without regularization other than that imposed by the parameterization of the model. However, the Bayesian approach computational expensive and not currently viable for quick response scenarios. Therefore, we also pursue improvements in the optimization inference scheme. We present a novel, robust and yet simple regularization technique that allows us to infer robust and somewhat more detailed models of slip on faults. We apply such methodologies, using simple quasi-static elastic models, to perform studies of inter- seismic deformation in the Central Andes subduction zone, and post-seismic deformation induced by the occurrence of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan. For the Central Andes, we present estimates of apparent coupling probability of the subduction interface and analyze its relationship to past earthquakes in the region. For Japan, we infer high spatial variability in material properties of the megathrust offshore Tohoku. We discuss the potential for a large earthquake just south of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake where our inferences suggest dominantly aseismic behavior.

Which policy option can be more cost-effective in promoting the use of energy efficient appliances in Europe? A comparison of energy taxes, subsidies, tax credits and bans.

4 p.

The Uniform World Model: A Methodology for Predicting the Health Impacts of Air Pollution

47 p.

The changing ecosystem of Lake Victoria, East Africa

Dramatic changes are occurring in the Lake Victoria ecosystem. Two-thirds of the endemic haplochromine cichlid species, of international interest for studies of evolution, have disappeared, an event associated with the sudden population explosion of piscivorous Nile perch (Lates: order Perciformes, family Centropomidae) introduced to the lake some thirty years ago. The total fish yield has, however, increased 5-fold from 1970 to 1990, but this yield is now dominated by just three fish species: the introduced Nile perch (Lates niloticus), Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus), and a small endemic pelagic cyprinid (Rastrineobola argentea); these three have replaced a multispecies fishery. Contemporaneously the lake is becoming increasingly eutrophic with associated deoxygenation of the bottom waters, thereby reducing fish habitats. Conditions appear to be unstable.

The contrasting invertebrate fauna of freshwater habitats in the Swavesey fens of East Anglia

During July and August 1988, 21 ponds and 33 ditch sites were sampled at Swavesey fens in East Anglia. Water from each site was collected and analysed at monthly intervals in the year preceding faunal sampling. Temperature and oxygen were measured on site. The "quality" of the faunal community was assessed by three approaches: a modification of the BMWP scoring system (Biological Monitoring Working Party); faunal richness was calculated as the number of faunal "groups" at each site; and by using Simpson's index of diversity. Statistical analysis was carried out to explore the relationships between sites, environmental variables and faunal diversity. The survey clearly showed the detrimental effects of elevated nitrate and phosphate from agricultural sources and the localised impacts of treated sewage effluent on invertebrates in ditches.

Habitat use by 0+ cyprinid fish in the River Great Ouse, East Anglia

This study was designed to examine the habitat use of several species of 0+ cyprinid in the regulated River Great Ouse and to determine the reasons for specific habitat use. In general, all fish species were found associated with the marginal zone, with little diel variation. Use of shallow habitats in the presence of macrophytes correlated well with the distribution of zooplankton in the river channel, the preferred food source of 0+ cyprinids. During the early to late larval phase, all species fed upon rotifers and diatoms. Cladocera, particularly Alona spp. and Chydorus spp., and early instar larvae of Chironomidae, then became prevalent in the diet along with small numbers of Copepoda. Models were developed to determine habitat availability over a range of discharges, using the physical habitat simulation (PHABSIM) component of the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology (IFIM). The results of this analysis revealed that habitat suitable for 0+ fishes comprised a relatively small percentage of the main channel and generally decreased with discharge.

A chemical survey of standing waters in south-east England, with reference to acidification and eutrophication

This study looks at the distribution and magnitude of acidification and eutrophication in south-east England where there are no natural lakes but a large number of shallow artificial ponds. The study area is defined as the region lying within a 100 km radius of central London but excluding the area within the M25 motorway. Water samples were taken from 120 sites between mid-January and the end of February 1990, with a subsequent monthly survey of a subset of 31 of these waters. Twelve chemical variables were measured in the laboratory using standard techniques. PH values for the full dataset ranged from 3.2 to 8.4, although the majority of sites had pH values in the range 7.0 to 8.5; only five sites had a pH of less than 6.0. The five low pH sites expectedly had low alkalinities and are the only sites with values below 0.1 meq per litre. Concentrations of calcium, sodium, potassium, magnesium, chloride, sulphate and nitrate had normal distributions. The majority of sites had total phosphorus concentrations in the range 25 to 200 mu g per litre, although 10 sites had concentrations above 400 mu g per litre. The low number of acid sites suggests that surface water acidity is not a widespread regional problem in south-east England. However the survey shows that a large number of standing waters in the region have high total phosphorus and nitrate concentrations, and 89% may be considered moderately to considerably eutrophic.

The mayflies (Ephemeroptera) of the upper River Sigi, north-east Tanzania

The work reported here results from material collected by the author made during 12 years residence in the East Usambaras in the 1950s and early 1960s, as well as a more recent visit. The faunal list the author has compiled comprises 45 species. As well as named species known to occur in the torrential section of the River Sigi, it includes those that are distinct but insufficiently well defined at present to have been formally described. For the sake of completeness, five species of Cloeon and one of Procloeon known to occur in ponds and pools formed by the damming of end-streams in forest clearings, have been included.

Creation of temporary ponds for amphibians in northern and central Europe

More than 4000 ponds have been created or restored in Denmark since 1985 as part of a large-scale pond-digging programme to protect endangered amphibians in particular and pond flora and fauna in general. Most ponds are created on private land with public financing. The programme was triggered by, among other factors, a drastic decline in amphibian populations in Denmark between 1940 and 1980. However, in recent years there has been an increased awareness in Denmark that temporary ponds are important for the conservation of some of the most rare amphibian species, such as fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina, natterjack toad Bufo calamita and green toad Bufo viridis. Other rare species such as moor frog Rana arvalis and European tree frog Hyla arborea also benefit from temporary ponds. The last 15 years of work on the conservation of endangered species and their habitats has resulted in a last-minute rescue and a subsequent growth in the size of most Danish populations of fire-bellied toad and green toad; some populations of the relatively more common natterjack toad have also increased. The creation of temporary ponds plays an important role in the success of these three species. The creation of ponds to help restore viable populations of the most rare amphibians has not been easy. To study the conditions that may need to be created, Danish herpetologists searched for areas with temporary ponds that had good water quality, natural hydrological conditions and a management regime influenced by traditional agricultural methods. The paper gives an overview of pond creation and restoration projects in Denmark and Poland and their significance for amphibian diversity.

Comparative studies on the structure of an upland African stream ecosystem

Upland stream systems have been extensively investigated in Europe, North America and Australasia and many of the central ideas concerning their function are based on these systems. One central paradigm, the river continuum concept is ultimately derived from those North American streams whose catchments remain forested with native vegetation. Streams of the tropics may or may not fit the model. They have been little studied. The Amani Nature Reserve in the East Usambara Mountains of north-eastern Tanzania offers an opportunity to bring these naturally forested systems to the attention of the ecological community. This article describes a comparison made between two lengths of the River Dodwe in this area. The work was carried out by a group of postgraduate students from eighteen European and African countries with advice from five staff members, as part of a course organised by the Tropical Biology Association. Rigorous efforts were made to standardise techniques, in a situation where equipment and laboratory facilities were very basic, through a management structure and deliberate allocation of work to specialists in each area.The article offers a summary of invertebrate communities found in the stream and its biomass. Crabs seem to be the key organism in both sections of the streams.

Hydrillae (Hydrocharitaceae) in Europe. [translation of key to Hydrilla only] [Translation from: Goettinger Floristische Rundbriefe 14 33-56, 1980]

This partial translation of a bigger publication provides an identification key to the aquatic plant Hydrillae (Hydrocharitaceae) in Europe. Illustrations are included.

Dynamics of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in Present and Future Climates

This thesis aims at enhancing our fundamental understanding of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and mechanisms implicated in its climatology in present-day and warmer climates. We focus on the most prominent feature of the EASM, i.e., the so-called Meiyu-Baiu (MB), which is characterized by a well-defined, southwest to northeast elongated quasi-stationary rainfall band, spanning from eastern China to Japan and into the northwestern Pacific Ocean in June and July.

We begin with an observational study of the energetics of the MB front in present-day climate. Analyses of the moist static energy (MSE) budget of the MB front indicate that horizontal advection of moist enthalpy, primarily of dry enthalpy, sustains the front in a region of otherwise negative net energy input into the atmospheric column. A decomposition of the horizontal dry enthalpy advection into mean, transient, and stationary eddy fluxes identifies the longitudinal thermal gradient due to zonal asymmetries and the meridional stationary eddy velocity as the most influential factors determining the pattern of horizontal moist enthalpy advection. Numerical simulations in which the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is either retained or removed show that the TP influences the stationary enthalpy flux, and hence the MB front, primarily by changing the meridional stationary eddy velocity, with reinforced southerly wind on the northwestern flank of the north Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) over the MB region and northerly wind to its north. Changes in the longitudinal thermal gradient are mainly confined to the near downstream of the TP, with the resulting changes in zonal warm air advection having a lesser impact on the rainfall in the extended MB region.

Similar mechanisms are shown to be implicated in present climate simulations in the Couple Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. We find that the spatial distribution of the EASM precipitation simulated by different models is highly correlated with the meridional stationary eddy velocity. The correlation becomes more robust when energy fluxes into the atmospheric column are considered, consistent with the observational analyses. The spread in the area-averaged rainfall amount can be partially explained by the spread in the simulated globally-averaged precipitation, with the rest primarily due to the lower-level meridional wind convergence. Clear relationships between precipitation and zonal and meridional eddy velocities are observed.

Finally, the response of the EASM to greenhouse gas forcing is investigated at different time scales in CMIP5 model simulations. The reduction of radiative cooling and the increase in continental surface temperature occur much more rapidly than changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Without changes in SSTs, the rainfall in the monsoon region decreases (increases) over ocean (land) in most models. On longer time scales, as SSTs increase, rainfall changes are opposite. The total response to atmospheric CO^2 forcing and subsequent SST warming is a large (modest) increase in rainfall over ocean (land) in the EASM region. Dynamic changes, in spite of significant contributions from the thermodynamic component, play an important role in setting up the spatial pattern of precipitation changes. Rainfall anomalies over East China are a direct consequence of local land-sea contrast, while changes in the larger-scale oceanic rainfall band are closely associated with the displacement of the larger-scale NPSH. Numerical simulations show that topography and SST patterns play an important role in rainfall changes in the EASM region.

Microorganisms of the East African Great Lakes and their response to environmental changes

We have reviewed the phytoplankton composition and succession in the East African Great Lakes, their response to environmental changes, and the communities of microorganisms of the microbial food web. Recent studies in some great lakes, as well as progress in understanding phytoplankton succession and response to environmental factors, enable us to update knowledge of the phytoplankton ecology of these lakes. In particular, we present information indicating that phytoplankton composition in lakes Tanganyika and Kivu may reflect recent changes as a result of global warming or species introduction. We also stress the importance of microbes (at the base of the food web) in these systems and suggest that the microbial food web, which has been mostly overlooked until recently, may play a very large role in determining productivity and nutrient cycling in these large lakes.

Darwin Scientific Foundation, Inc. and Galapagos Darwin Trust, Europe

From a special issue: A Brief History of the Charles Darwin Foundation for the Galapagos Islands 1959-1988