The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system

ERA-Interim is the latest global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The ERA-Interim project was conducted in part to prepare for a new atmospheric reanalysis to replace ERA-40, which will extend back to the early part of the twentieth century. This article describes the forecast model, data assimilation method, and input datasets used to produce ERA-Interim, and discusses the performance of the system. Special emphasis is placed on various difficulties encountered in the production of ERA-40, including the representation of the hydrological cycle, the quality of the stratospheric circulation, and the consistency in time of the reanalysed fields. We provide evidence for substantial improvements in each of these aspects. We also identify areas where further work is needed and describe opportunities and objectives for future reanalysis projects at ECMWF

Decision making for HVAC&R system selection for a typical office building in the UK

Demands for thermal comfort, better indoor air quality together with lower environmental impacts have had ascending trends in the last decade. In many circumstances, these demands could not be fully covered through the soft approach of bioclimatic design like optimisation of the building orientation and internal layout. This is mostly because of the dense urban environment and building internal energy loads. In such cases, heating, ventilation, air-conditioning and refrigeration (HVAC&R) systems make a key role to fulfill the requirements of indoor environment. Therefore, it is required to select the most proper HVAC&R system. In this study, a robust decision making approach for HVAC&R system selection is proposed. Technical performance, economic aspect and environmental impacts of 36 permutations of primary and secondary systems are taken into account to choose the most proper HVAC&R system for a case study office building. The building is a representative for the dominant form of office buildings in the UK. Dynamic performance evaluation of HVAC&R alternatives using TRNSYS package together with life cycle energy cost analysis provides a reliable basis for decision making. Six scenarios broadly cover the decision makers' attitudes on HVAC&R system selection which are analysed through Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). One of the significant outcomes reveals that, despite both the higher energy demand and more investment requirements associated with compound heating, cooling and power system (CCHP); this system is one of the top ranked alternatives due to the lower energy cost and C02 emissions. The sensitivity analysis reveals that in all six scenarios, the first five top ranked alternatives are not changed. Finally, the proposed approach and the results could be used by researchers and designers especially in the early stages of a design process in which all involved bodies face the lack of time, information and tools for evaluation of a variety of systems.

Building the foundations for a market-oriented planning system in Bulgaria

Planning is highly conditioned by the relationships between the market, state and politics. This becomes particularly clear in looking at the changes taking place in the countries of the former Communist block as they attempt to establish a new set of relationships. The old power structures have been dislodged and old laws discarded. This paper examines the situation in Bulgaria and explores the preconditions for setting up a new planning system there. The first section outlines the political changes since 1989 and shows how political instability has effected the pace of change. The establishment of a market in land and property is a second precondition for the planning system there and moves in this direction are presented, including restitution policies. Finally the issues raised by the early attempts towards a new planning system are discussed. This paper is the first of a series looking at the countries of Eastern Europe and the author would welcome comments from others working in this field.

Fetal programming effects of testosterone on the reward system and behavioral approach tendencies in humans

BACKGROUND: Sex differences are present in many neuropsychiatric conditions that affect emotion and approach-avoidance behavior. One potential mechanism underlying such observations is testosterone in early development. Although much is known about the effects of testosterone in adolescence and adulthood, little is known in humans about how testosterone in fetal development influences later neural sensitivity to valenced facial cues and approach-avoidance behavioral tendencies. METHODS: With functional magnetic resonance imaging we scanned 25 8-11-year-old children while viewing happy, fear, neutral, or scrambled faces. Fetal testosterone (FT) was measured via amniotic fluid sampled between 13 and 20 weeks gestation. Behavioral approach-avoidance tendencies were measured via parental report on the Sensitivity to Punishment and Sensitivity to Rewards questionnaire. RESULTS: Increasing FT predicted enhanced selectivity for positive compared with negatively valenced facial cues in reward-related regions such as caudate, putamen, and nucleus accumbens but not the amygdala. Statistical mediation analyses showed that increasing FT predicts increased behavioral approach tendencies by biasing caudate, putamen, and nucleus accumbens but not amygdala to be more responsive to positive compared with negatively valenced cues. In contrast, FT was not predictive of behavioral avoidance tendencies, either through direct or neurally mediated paths. CONCLUSIONS: This work suggests that testosterone in humans acts as a fetal programming mechanism on the reward system and influences behavioral approach tendencies later in life. As a mechanism influencing atypical development, FT might be important across a range of neuropsychiatric conditions that asymmetrically affect the sexes, the reward system, emotion processing, and approach behavior.

August Thienemann and Loch Lomond - an approach to the design of a system for monitoring the state of north-temperate standing waters

Limnologists had an early preoccupation with lake classification. It gave a necessary structure to the many chemical and biological observations that were beginning to form the basis of one of the earliest truly environmental sciences. August Thienemann was the doyen of such classifiers and his concept with Einar Naumann of oligotrophic and eutrophic lakes remains central to the world-view that limnologists still have. Classification fell into disrepute, however, as it became clear that there would always be lakes that deviated from the prescriptions that the classifiers made for them. Continua became the de rigeur concept and lakes were seen as varying along many chemical, biological and geographic axes. Modern limnologists are comfortable with this concept. That all lakes are different guarantees an indefinite future for limnological research. For those who manage lakes and the landscapes in which they are set, however, it is not very useful. There may be as many as 300000 standing water bodies in England and Wales alone and maybe as many again in Scotland. More than 80 000 are sizable (> 1 ha). Some classification scheme to cope with these numbers is needed and, as human impacts on them increase, a system of assessing and monitoring change must be built into such a scheme. Although ways of classifying and monitoring running waters are well developed in the UK, the same is not true of standing waters. Sufficient understanding of what determines the nature and functioning of lakes exists to create a system which has intellectual credibility as well as practical usefulness. This paper outlines the thinking behind a system which will be workable on a north European basis and presents some early results.

The coupled δ13C-radiocarbon systematics of three Late Glacial/early Holocene speleothems: insights into soil and caveprocesses at climatic transitions

The coupled δ13C-radiocarbon systematics of threeEuropean stalagmites deposited during the Late Glacial and early Holocene were investigated to understand better how the carbon isotope systematics of speleothems respond to climate transitions. The emphasis is on understanding how speleothems may record climate-driven changes in the proportions of biogenic (soil carbon) and limestone bedrock derived carbon. At two of the three sites, the combined δ13C and 14C data argue against greater inputs of limestone carbon as the sole cause of the observed shift to higher δ13C during the cold Younger Dryas. In these stalagmites (GAR-01 from La Garma cave, N. Spain and So-1 from Sofular cave, Turkey), the combined changes in δ13C and initial 14C activities suggest enhanced decomposition of old stored, more recalcitrant, soil carbon at the onset of the warmer early Holocene. Alternative explanations involving gradual temporal changes between open- and closed-system behaviour during the Late Glacial are difficult to reconcile with observed changes in speleothem δ13C and the growth rates. In contrast, a stalagmite from Pindal cave (N. Spain) indicates an abrupt change in carbon inputs linked to local hydrological and disequilibrium isotope fractionation effects, rather than climate change. For the first time, it is shown that while the initial 14C activities of all three stalagmites broadly follow the contemporaneous atmospheric 14C trends (the Younger Dryas atmospheric 14C anomaly can be clearly discerned), subtle changes in speleothem initial 14C activities are linked to climate-driven changes in soil carbon turnover at a climate transition.

Indian summer monsoon variations could have affected the early Holocene woodland expansion in the Near East

Postglacial expansion of deciduous oak woodlands of the Zagros—Anti-Taurus Mountains, a major biome of the Near East, was delayed until the middle Holocene at ~6300 cal. yr BP. The current hypotheses explain this delay as a consequence of a regional aridity during the early Holocene, slow migration rates of forest trees, and/or a long history of land use and agro-pastoralism in this region. In the present paper, support is given to a hypothesis that suggests different precipitation seasonalities during the early Holocene compared with the late Holocene. The oak species of the Zagros—Anti-Taurus Mts, particularly Quercus brantii Lindl., are strongly dependent on spring precipitation for regeneration and are sensitive to a long dry season. Detailed analysis of modern atmospheric circulation patterns in SW Asia during the late spring suggests that the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) intensification can modify the amount of late spring and/or early summer rainfall in western/northwestern Iran and eastern Anatolia, which could in turn have controlled the development of the Zagros—Anti-Taurus deciduous oak woodlands. During the early Holocene, the northwestward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) could have displaced the subtropical anticyclonic belt or associated high pressure ridges to the northwest. The latter could, in turn, have prevented the southeastward penetration of low pressure systems originating from the North Atlantic and Black Sea regions. Such atmospheric configuration could have reduced or eliminated the spring precipitation creating a typical Mediterranean continental climate characterized by winter-dominated precipitation. This scenario highlights the complexity of biome response to climate system interactions in transitional climatic and biogeographical regions.

Use of high-resolution NWP rainfall and river flow forecasts for advance warning of the Carlisle flood, north-west England

On the 8 January 2005 the city of Carlisle in north-west England was severely flooded following 2 days of almost continuous rain over the nearby hills. Orographic enhancement of the rain through the seeder–feeder mechanism led to the very high rainfall totals. This paper shows the impact of running the Met Office Unified Model (UM) with a grid spacing of 4 and 1 km compared to the 12 km available at the time of the event. These forecasts, and forecasts from the Nimrod nowcasting system, were fed into the Probability Distributed Model (PDM) to predict river flow at the outlets of two catchments important for flood warning. The results show the benefit of increased resolution in the UM, the benefit of coupling the high-resolution rainfall forecasts to the PDM and the improvement in timeliness of flood warning that might have been possible. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

The European Flood Alert System and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management

Although ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are increasingly promoted as the scientific state-of-the-art for operational flood forecasting, the communication, perception, and use of the resulting alerts have received much less attention. Using a variety of qualitative research methods, including direct user feedback at training workshops, participant observation during site visits to 25 forecasting centres across Europe, and in-depth interviews with 69 forecasters, civil protection officials, and policy makers involved in operational flood risk management in 17 European countries, this article discusses the perception, communication, and use of European Flood Alert System (EFAS) alerts in operational flood management. In particular, this article describes how the design of EFAS alerts has evolved in response to user feedback and desires for a hydrographic-like way of visualizing EFAS outputs. It also documents a variety of forecaster perceptions about the value and skill of EFAS forecasts and the best way of using them to inform operational decision making. EFAS flood alerts were generally welcomed by flood forecasters as a sort of ‘pre-alert’ to spur greater internal vigilance. In most cases, however, they did not lead, by themselves, to further preparatory action or to earlier warnings to the public or emergency services. Their hesitancy to act in response to medium-term, probabilistic alerts highlights some wider institutional obstacles to the hopes in the research community that EPS will be readily embraced by operational forecasters and lead to immediate improvements in flood incident management. The EFAS experience offers lessons for other hydrological services seeking to implement EPS operationally for flood forecasting and warning. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Direct experimental evidence that early-life farm environment influences regulation of immune responses

Background: In mammals, early-life environmental variations appear to affect microbial colonization and therefore competent immune development, and exposure to farm environments in infants has been inversely correlated with allergy development. Modelling these effects using manipulation of neonatal rodents is difficult due to their dependency on the mother, but the relatively independent piglet is increasingly identified as a valuable translational model for humans. This study was designed to correlate immune regulation in piglets with early-life environment. Methods: Piglets were nursed by their mother on a commercial farm, while isolatorreared siblings were formula fed. Fluorescence immunohistology was used to quantify T-reg and effector T-cell populations in the intestinal lamina propria and the systemic response to food proteins was quantified by capture ELISA. Results: There was more CD4+ and CD4+CD25+ effector T-cell staining in the intestinal mucosa of the isolator-reared piglets compared with their farm-reared counterparts. In contrast, these isolator-reared piglets had a significantly reduced CD4+CD25+Foxp3+ regulatory T-cell population compared to farm-reared littermates, resulting in a significantly higher T-reg-to-effector ratio in the farm animals. Consistent with these findings, isolator-reared piglets had an increased serum IgG anti-soya response to novel dietary soya protein relative to farm-reared piglets. Conclusion: Here, we provide the first direct evidence, derived from intervention, that components of the early-life environment present on farms profoundly affects both local development of regulatory components of the mucosal immune system and immune responses to food proteins at weaning. We propose that neonatal piglets provide a tractable model which allows maternal and treatment effects to be statistically separated.

Restricting microbial exposure in early life negates the immune benefits associated with gut colonization in environments of high microbial diversity

Background: Acquisition of the intestinal microbiota in early life corresponds with the development of the mucosal immune system. Recent work on caesarean-delivered infants revealed that early microbial composition is influenced by birthing method and environment. Furthermore, we have confirmed that early-life environment strongly influences both the adult gut microbiota and development of the gut immune system. Here, we address the impact of limiting microbial exposure after initial colonization on the development of adult gut immunity. Methodology/Principal Findings: Piglets were born in indoor or outdoor rearing units, allowing natural colonization in the immediate period after birth, prior to transfer to high-health status isolators. Strikingly, gut closure and morphological development were strongly affected by isolator-rearing, independent of indoor or outdoor origins of piglets. Isolator-reared animals showed extensive vacuolation and disorganization of the gut epithelium, inferring that normal gut closure requires maturation factors present in maternal milk. Although morphological maturation and gut closure were delayed in isolatorreared animals, these hard-wired events occurred later in development. Type I IFN, IL-22, IL-23 and Th17 pathways were increased in indoor-isolator compared to outdoor-isolator animals during early life, indicating greater immune activation in pigs originating from indoor environments reflecting differences in the early microbiota. This difference was less apparent later in development due to enhanced immune activation and convergence of the microbiota in all isolator-reared animals. This correlated with elevation of Type I IFN pathways in both groups, although T cell pathways were still more affected in indoor-reared animals. Conclusions/Significance: Environmental factors, in particular microbial exposure, influence expression of a large number of immune-related genes. However, the homeostatic effects of microbial colonization in outdoor environments require sustained microbial exposure throughout development. Gut development in high-hygiene environments negatively impacts on normal succession of the gut microbiota and promotes innate immune activation which may impair immune homeostasis.

Dissociating between object affordances and spatial compatibility effects using early response components

Perception and action are tightly linked: objects may be perceived not only in terms of visual features, but also in terms of possibilities for action. Previous studies showed that when a centrally located object has a salient graspable feature (e.g., a handle), it facilitates motor responses corresponding with the feature's position. However, such so-called affordance effects have been criticized as resulting from spatial compatibility effects, due to the visual asymmetry created by the graspable feature, irrespective of any affordances. In order to dissociate between affordance and spatial compatibility effects, we asked participants to perform a simple reaction-time task to typically graspable and non-graspable objects with similar visual features (e.g., lollipop and stop sign). Responses were measured using either electromyography (EMG) on proximal arm muscles during reaching-like movements, or with finger key-presses. In both EMG and button press measurements, participants responded faster when the object was either presented in the same location as the responding hand, or was affordable, resulting in significant and independent spatial compatibility and affordance effects, but no interaction. Furthermore, while the spatial compatibility effect was present from the earliest stages of movement preparation and throughout the different stages of movement execution, the affordance effect was restricted to the early stages of movement execution. Finally, we tested a small group of unilateral arm amputees using EMG, and found residual spatial compatibility but no affordance, suggesting that spatial compatibility effects do not necessarily rely on individuals’ available affordances. Our results show dissociation between affordance and spatial compatibility effects, and suggest that rather than evoking the specific motor action most suitable for interaction with the viewed object, graspable objects prompt the motor system in a general, body-part independent fashion

Demand response from the non-domestic sector: early UK experiences and future opportunities

Demand response is believed by some to become a major contributor towards system balancing in future electricity networks. Shifting or reducing demand at critical moments can reduce the need for generation capacity, help with the integration of renewables, support more efficient system operation and thereby potentially lead to cost and carbon reductions for the entire energy system. In this paper we review the nature of the response resource of consumers from different non-domestic sectors in the UK, based on extensive half hourly demand profiles and observed demand responses. We further explore the potential to increase the demand response capacity through changes in the regulatory and market environment. The analysis suggests that present demand response measures tend to stimulate stand-by generation capacity in preference to load shifting and we propose that extended response times may favour load based demand response, especially in sectors with significant thermal loads.

Mid-Holocene land-surface conditions in northern Africa and the Arabian peninsula: a data set for the analysis of biogeophysical feedbacks in the climate system

Large changes in the extent of northern subtropical arid regions during the Holocene are attributed to orbitally forced variations in monsoon strength and have been implicated in the regulation of atmospheric trace gas concentrations on millenial timescales. Models that omit biogeophysical feedback, however, are unable to account for the full magnitude of African monsoon amplification and extension during the early to middle Holocene (˜9500–5000 years B.P.). A data set describing land-surface conditions 6000 years B.P. on a 1° × 1° grid across northern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula has been prepared from published maps and other sources of palaeoenvironmental data, with the primary aim of providing a realistic lower boundary condition for atmospheric general circulation model experiments similar to those performed in the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. The data set includes information on the percentage of each grid cell occupied by specific vegetation types (steppe, savanna, xerophytic woods/scrub, tropical deciduous forest, and tropical montane evergreen forest), open water (lakes), and wetlands, plus information on the flow direction of major drainage channels for use in large-scale palaeohydrological modeling.

The mirror neuron system as revealed through neonatal imitation: presence from birth, predictive power, and evidence of plasticity

There is strong evidence that neonates imitate previously unseen behaviors. These behaviors are predominantly used in social interactions, demonstrating neonates’ ability and motivation to engage with others. Research on neonatal imitation can provide a wealth of information about the early mirror neuron system (MNS): namely, its functional characteristics, its plasticity from birth, and its relation to skills later in development. Though numerous studies document the existence of neonatal imitation in the laboratory, little is known about its natural occurrence during parent-infant interactions and its plasticity as a consequence of experience. We review these critical aspects of imitation, which we argue are necessary for understanding the early action-perception system. We address common criticisms and misunderstandings about neonatal imitation and discuss methodological differences among studies. Recent work reveals that individual differences in neonatal imitation positively correlate with later social, cognitive, and motor development. We propose that such variation in neonatal imitation could reflect important individual differences of the MNS. Although postnatal experience is not necessary for imitation, we present evidence that neonatal imitation is influenced by experience in the first week of life.