Oral melatonin reduces blood coagulation activity: a placebo-controlled study in healthy young men

Melatonin has previously been suggested to affect hemostatic function but studies on the issue are scant. We hypothesized that, in humans, oral administration of melatonin is associated with decreased plasma levels of procoagulant hemostatic measures compared with placebo medication and that plasma melatonin concentration shows an inverse association with procoagulant measures. Forty-six healthy men (mean age 25 +/- 4 yr) were randomized, single-blinded, to either 3 mg of oral melatonin (n = 25) or placebo medication (n = 21). One hour thereafter, levels of melatonin, fibrinogen, and D-dimer as well as activities of coagulation factor VII (FVII:C) and VIII (FVIII:C) were measured in plasma. Multivariate analysis of covariance and regression analysis controlled for age, body mass index, mean arterial blood pressure, heart rate, and norepinephrine plasma level. Subjects on melatonin had significantly lower mean levels of FVIII:C (81%, 95% CI 71-92 versus 103%, 95% CI 90-119; P = 0.018) and of fibrinogen (1.92 g/L, 95% CI 1.76-2.08 versus 2.26 g/L, 95% CI 2.09-2.43; P = 0.007) than those on placebo explaining 14 and 17% of the respective variance. In all subjects, increased plasma melatonin concentration independently predicted lower levels of FVIII:C (P = 0.037) and fibrinogen (P = 0.022) explaining 9 and 11% of the respective variance. Melatonin medication and plasma concentration were not significantly associated with FVII:C and D-dimer levels. A single dose of oral melatonin was associated with lower plasma levels of procoagulant factors 60 min later. There might be a dose-response relationship between the plasma concentration of melatonin and coagulation activity.

Effects of Toll-like receptor 2 agonist Pam(3)CysSK(4) on inflammation and brain damage in experimental pneumococcal meningitis

TLR2 signaling participates in the pathogenesis of pneumococcal meningitis. In infant rats, the TLR2 agonist Pam(3)CysSK(4) was applied intracisternally (0.5 microg in 10 microl saline) alone or after induction of pneumococcal meningitis to investigate the effect of TLR2 activation on cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) inflammation and hippocampal apoptosis. A dose effect of Pam(3)CysSK(4) on apoptosis was investigated by intracisternal application of 0.5 microg in 10 microl saline and 40 microg in 20 microl saline. Pam(3)CysSK(4) neither induced apoptosis in sham-operated mice nor aggravated apoptosis in acute infection. However, Pam(3)CysSK(4) induced pleocytosis, TNF-alpha and MMP-9 in CSF in sham-infection but not during acute meningitis. We conclude that TLR2 signaling triggered by Pam(3)CysSK(4) at a dosage capable to induce a neuroinflammatory response does not induce hippocampal apoptosis in the infant rat model of experimental pneumococcal meningitis.

Simulation of Drosophila circadian oscillations, mutations, and light responses by a model with VRI, PDP-1, and CLK.

A model of Drosophila circadian rhythm generation was developed to represent feedback loops based on transcriptional regulation of per, Clk (dclock), Pdp-1, and vri (vrille). The model postulates that histone acetylation kinetics make transcriptional activation a nonlinear function of [CLK]. Such a nonlinearity is essential to simulate robust circadian oscillations of transcription in our model and in previous models. Simulations suggest that two positive feedback loops involving Clk are not essential for oscillations, because oscillations of [PER] were preserved when Clk, vri, or Pdp-1 expression was fixed. However, eliminating positive feedback by fixing vri expression altered the oscillation period. Eliminating the negative feedback loop in which PER represses per expression abolished oscillations. Simulations of per or Clk null mutations, of per overexpression, and of vri, Clk, or Pdp-1 heterozygous null mutations altered model behavior in ways similar to experimental data. The model simulated a photic phase-response curve resembling experimental curves, and oscillations entrained to simulated light-dark cycles. Temperature compensation of oscillation period could be simulated if temperature elevation slowed PER nuclear entry or PER phosphorylation. The model makes experimental predictions, some of which could be tested in transgenic Drosophila.

Laser-induced transient grating analysis of dynamics of interaction between sensory rhodopsin II D75N and the HtrII transducer.

The interaction between sensory rhodopsin II (SRII) and its transducer HtrII was studied by the time-resolved laser-induced transient grating method using the D75N mutant of SRII, which exhibits minimal visible light absorption changes during its photocycle, but mediates normal phototaxis responses. Flash-induced transient absorption spectra of transducer-free D75N and D75N joined to 120 amino-acid residues of the N-terminal part of the SRII transducer protein HtrII (DeltaHtrII) showed only one spectrally distinct K-like intermediate in their photocycles, but the transient grating method resolved four intermediates (K(1)-K(4)) distinct in their volumes. D75N bound to HtrII exhibited one additional slower kinetic species, which persists after complete recovery of the initial state as assessed by absorption changes in the UV-visible region. The kinetics indicate a conformationally changed form of the transducer portion (designated Tr*), which persists after the photoreceptor returns to the unphotolyzed state. The largest conformational change in the DeltaHtrII portion was found to cause a DeltaHtrII-dependent increase in volume rising in 8 micros in the K(4) state and a drastic decrease in the diffusion coefficient (D) of K(4) relatively to those of the unphotolyzed state and Tr*. The magnitude of the decrease in D indicates a large structural change, presumably in the solvent-exposed HAMP domain of DeltaHtrII, where rearrangement of interacting molecules in the solvent would substantially change friction between the protein and the solvent.

Long-lasting hyperexcitability induced by depolarization in the absence of detectable Ca2+ signals.

Learning and memory depend on neuronal alterations induced by electrical activity. Most examples of activity-dependent plasticity, as well as adaptive responses to neuronal injury, have been linked explicitly or implicitly to induction by Ca(2+) signals produced by depolarization. Indeed, transient Ca(2+) signals are commonly assumed to be the only effective transducers of depolarization into adaptive neuronal responses. Nevertheless, Ca(2+)-independent depolarization-induced signals might also trigger plastic changes. Establishing the existence of such signals is a challenge because procedures that eliminate Ca(2+) transients also impair neuronal viability and tolerance to cellular stress. We have taken advantage of nociceptive sensory neurons in the marine snail Aplysia, which exhibit unusual tolerance to extreme reduction of extracellular and intracellular free Ca(2+) levels. The axons of these neurons exhibit a depolarization-induced memory-like hyperexcitability that lasts a day or longer and depends on local protein synthesis for induction. Here we show that transient localized depolarization of these axons in an excised nerve-ganglion preparation or in dissociated cell culture can induce short- and intermediate-term axonal hyperexcitability as well as long-term protein synthesis-dependent hyperexcitability under conditions in which Ca(2+) entry is prevented (by bathing in nominally Ca(2+) -free solutions containing EGTA) and detectable Ca(2+) transients are eliminated (by adding BAPTA-AM). Disruption of Ca(2+) release from intracellular stores by pretreatment with thapsigargin also failed to affect induction of axonal hyperexcitability. These findings suggest that unrecognized Ca(2+)-independent signals exist that can transduce intense depolarization into adaptive cellular responses during neuronal injury, prolonged high-frequency activity, or other sustained depolarizing events.

IMMUNOGLOBULINS IN PERIODONTAL DISEASE

Periodontal disease is the major cause of tooth loss in man. The initial histological picture of the inflamed gingiva is characteristic of local inflammatory reaction involving polymorphonuclear leukocytes, vasculitis and localized tissue loss. Subsequent clinical stages of periodontal disease (mild gingivitis) show histological evidence of the involvement of the immune response with initial accumulation of macrophages, and lymphocytes devoid of surface staining immunoglobulins (presumably T cells). As the disease progresses, a predominance of surface and cytoplasmic staining lymphocytes and plasma cells are seen (severe gingivitis and periodontitis). Whether the occurrence of the immunoglobulin positive lymphocytes and the concurrent loss of collagen and resorption of alveolar bone seen in periodontitis is indicative of a direct cause and effect relationship has been a controversy.^ The majority of investigations in the periodontal field have involved the use of peripheral blood lymphocytes or serum. Blastogenic responses of peripheral blood lymphocytes and serum antibody titers from periodontal patients to a variety of oral bacteria have not shown any correlation between response and the severity of disease. The need to study the local immune response in inflamed gingiva is apparent. Since there are no baseline studies on the functional capabilities of the lymphoid cells present in gingiva from periodontitis patients, an in depth study involving the role of the immunoglobulin positive lymphocytes was investigated.^ Inflamed gingiva from four clinically defined periodontal disease states (mild gingivitis, severe gingivitis, periodontitis and severe periodontitis) were placed in gingival organ cultures. Class specific immunoglobulins were quantitated in gingival organ culture supernatants using an indirect sandwich technique. A significant difference in mean levels of IgA and IgG was seen between mild gingivitis and periodontitis (P < .00l, P = .001), as well as in IgG levels between periodontitis and severe periodontitis (P = .001). The predominance of IgG in gingival organ culture supernatants and the statistically significant findings that the overall mean levels of IgG between mild gingivitis and periodontitis (P = .014) and between severe periodontitis and periodontitis (P = .001) suggested a possible indicator of periodontal disease. The presence of IgG in gingival organ culture supernatants was shown to be a product of actively secreting plasma cells. The incorporation of radiolabelled amino acids into IgG was noted over a seven-day period with a peak response at day 4-5. The inhibition of IgG synthesis by cyclohexamide confirmed the contention that IgG was a product of de novo synthesis and not serum derived.^ The specificity of immunoglobulins derived from gingival organ cultures were studied using a whole bacterial agglutination test. Oral bacteria frequently cultured from periodontal patients were assessed for their ability to be agglutinated by gingival organ culture supernatants. A positive correlation of antibody titer and severity of disease was seen with five strains of Actinomyces viscosus, two of Actinomyces naeslundii and one Actinomyces israelii. The agglutination of bacteria was shown to be due to the specific interaction of immunoglobulin and cell-wall antigen. ^

Chemical Composition of Fresh Snow from Glaciar Marinelli, Tierra Del Fuego, Chile

A fresh-snow sampling campaign was conducted during the late austral summer of 2006 in the accumulation zone of Glaciar Marinelli, located in the Cordillera Darwin, Tierra del Fuego, Chile. Snow samples were analyzed for stable isotopes (delta(18)O, major soluble ions (Na', K', Ca, Mg, a NO(3)(-), SO(4)(2-), MS(-)) and major and trace elements (Na, Mg, Al, Fe, Ca, Sr, Cd, Cs, Ba, La, Ce, Pr, Dy, Ho, Er, Bi, U, As, Ti, V, Cr, Mn). The dominance of marine chemistry resembles that in studies from Patagonian glaciers. Snow chemistry was dominantly loaded by marine species (Cl(-), Na(+) and ssSO(4)(2-)), while contributions of crustal species (e.g. Al and Fe) were very low. Empirical orthogonal function analysis suggests two possible dust sources, one represented by Al and Fe and the other by La, Ce and Pr. Enrichment-factor calculations suggest the majority of elements are within average upper-crustal ratios, but major enrichments of Bi and Cd (hundreds of times) suggest possible anthropogenic sources. Linear correlation of delta(18)O and barometric pressure (r = 0.60, p < 0.007) suggests a potential 'amount effect' relationship between depleted delta(18)O ratios and stronger storm conditions (e.g. greater precipitation). The snow-chemistry records from Glaciar Marinelli are the first measured in Tierra del Fuego, the southernmost glaciated region outside Antarctica.

Effectiveness of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs for the treatment of pain in knee and hip osteoarthritis: a network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are the backbone of osteoarthritis pain management. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of different preparations and doses of NSAIDs on osteoarthritis pain in a network meta-analysis. METHODS For this network meta-analysis, we considered randomised trials comparing any of the following interventions: NSAIDs, paracetamol, or placebo, for the treatment of osteoarthritis pain. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and the reference lists of relevant articles for trials published between Jan 1, 1980, and Feb 24, 2015, with at least 100 patients per group. The prespecified primary and secondary outcomes were pain and physical function, and were extracted in duplicate for up to seven timepoints after the start of treatment. We used an extension of multivariable Bayesian random effects models for mixed multiple treatment comparisons with a random effect at the level of trials. For the primary analysis, a random walk of first order was used to account for multiple follow-up outcome data within a trial. Preparations that used different total daily dose were considered separately in the analysis. To assess a potential dose-response relation, we used preparation-specific covariates assuming linearity on log relative dose. FINDINGS We identified 8973 manuscripts from our search, of which 74 randomised trials with a total of 58 556 patients were included in this analysis. 23 nodes concerning seven different NSAIDs or paracetamol with specific daily dose of administration or placebo were considered. All preparations, irrespective of dose, improved point estimates of pain symptoms when compared with placebo. For six interventions (diclofenac 150 mg/day, etoricoxib 30 mg/day, 60 mg/day, and 90 mg/day, and rofecoxib 25 mg/day and 50 mg/day), the probability that the difference to placebo is at or below a prespecified minimum clinically important effect for pain reduction (effect size [ES] -0·37) was at least 95%. Among maximally approved daily doses, diclofenac 150 mg/day (ES -0·57, 95% credibility interval [CrI] -0·69 to -0·46) and etoricoxib 60 mg/day (ES -0·58, -0·73 to -0·43) had the highest probability to be the best intervention, both with 100% probability to reach the minimum clinically important difference. Treatment effects increased as drug dose increased, but corresponding tests for a linear dose effect were significant only for celecoxib (p=0·030), diclofenac (p=0·031), and naproxen (p=0·026). We found no evidence that treatment effects varied over the duration of treatment. Model fit was good, and between-trial heterogeneity and inconsistency were low in all analyses. All trials were deemed to have a low risk of bias for blinding of patients. Effect estimates did not change in sensitivity analyses with two additional statistical models and accounting for methodological quality criteria in meta-regression analysis. INTERPRETATION On the basis of the available data, we see no role for single-agent paracetamol for the treatment of patients with osteoarthritis irrespective of dose. We provide sound evidence that diclofenac 150 mg/day is the most effective NSAID available at present, in terms of improving both pain and function. Nevertheless, in view of the safety profile of these drugs, physicians need to consider our results together with all known safety information when selecting the preparation and dose for individual patients. FUNDING Swiss National Science Foundation (grant number 405340-104762) and Arco Foundation, Switzerland.

Environmental and behavioral risk factors for moderate or severe rotavirus diarrhea in children less than 24 months

On a global basis rotaviruses are the most important agents involved in childhood diarrhea. In developing countries they account for 6% of all diarrheas and 20% of all diarrhea related deaths of children under 5 years of age, with over 1 billion episodes and over 4 million deaths annually. Given the disease burden, there is a need for better understanding the risk factors involved in rotavirus disease, to identify areas of intervention. In order to provide this information, two areas were developed: a review of the literature, examining the causal evidence for rotavirus diarrhea and a case comparison study. The case comparison study analyzed two areas: identifying climate factors and, identifying environmental and behavioral risk factors. The literature review showed that few analytical studies have identified specific risk factors such as home environment, and a winter seasonal trend for temperate areas, but in key areas evidence is contradictory. The case comparison study for climate factors demonstrated that seasonality occurs in a tropical country like Venezuela and that a complex interplay between weather conditions contribute to the seasonal pattern. A positive association between rain fall (OR 4.1); dew point (OR 2.3) and temperature differential during the day (OR 1.4) and, an inverse association with temperature (OR 0.5) and relative humidity (OR 0.8) was found. This information is useful in understanding the seasonal pattern of rotavirus and for planning health care needs. The second analysis demonstrated that environmental variables such as crowding (OR 14.3), contact with someone with an infectious disease (OR 4.9) and animal ownership (OR 2.3) were important. Restricting the analysis to animal owners demonstrated that living In a rural settling (OR 13.8), defecating in inappropriate places (OR 7.2), crowding(4.2) and indoor animals (4.0) are of importance. Behavioral variables identified were: lack of breast feeding (OR 4.0) and visiting when someone was sick (OR 3.4). Biological and demographic variables of importance were: age, with a dose response relationship; undernurishment (OR 11.3) and household per capita monthly income less than US $ 16.30 (OR 8.5). Using a diarrhea compeer group we found that, although some of the previous variables were of importance, no major differences were found. These findings are important in identifying paths for prevention and further research. ^

Monitoring of industrial exposure for chloracne

This study (1) established comedogenicity dose response curves for the pure compounds of 3,3$\sp\prime$,4,4$\sp\prime$-tetrachloroazobenzene (TCAB) and 3,3$\sp\prime$,4,4$\sp\prime$-tetrachloroazoxybenzene (TCAOB) individually and as a couple-compound using a rabbit ear model; (2) used a rabbit ear model to establish comedogenicity potential for TCAB and TCAOB as they existed in a given industrial herbicide manufacture process; (3) evaluated actual environmental contamination in a herbicide industrial setting by air monitoring and wipe sampling; (4) biologically monitored potentially exposed workers for alterations in follicular orifice size as an index of actual exposure to chloracnegenic compounds; and (5) biologically monitored potentially exposed workers for changes in weight, cholesterol, triglycerides and blood sugar.^ A silastic monomer mold (an objective measure) was used to measure change in follicular orifice size over time. This required taking impressions of (1) skin of the forehead and right and left malar crescents of workers and (2) the skin of the external ear of the rabbit. Molds were stained using a solution of hematoxylin and digitized using a Nikon UFX microscope (magnification 300 X), a drawing tube and a digitizing tablet attached to an IBM Personal Computer. Comedogenicity assays were used to establish dose-response curves for TCAB, TCAOB and the couple-compound TCAB + TCAOB.^ No evidence of chloracne or toxicity was observed in any of the workers. Nor, was there a statistically significant increase in size of follicular orifice means measured over time. This was attributed to extensive personal and environmental hygiene programs along with teaching the workers about chloracne, its cause and its prevention. These programs may have been the greatest factor in preventing the development of chloracne in this group of workers. Monitoring of the plant environment showed relatively high concentrations of the couple-compound (TCAB + TCAOB). Comedogenicity assays showed a linear dose-response relationship over time for TCAB, TCAOB and the couple-compound. An antagonistic action was found for the TCAB/TCAOB of the couple-compound; such action may provide some protection to workers in this type of setting. It is speculated that the observed antagonistic action may be due to the difference in binding affinities of TCAB/TCAOB for receptor sites. ^

Leukemia and occupational exposure to electromagnetic fields: An incident case-control study

The existence of an association between leukemia and electromagnetic fields (EMF) is still controversial. The results of epidemiologic studies of leukemia in occupational groups with exposure to EMF are inconsistent. Weak associations have been seen in a few studies. EMF assessment is lacking in precision. Reported dose-response relationships have been based on qualitative levels of exposure to EMF without regard to duration of employment or EMF intensity on the jobs. Furthermore, potential confounding factors in the associations were not often well controlled. The current study is an analysis of the data collected from an incident case-control study. The primary objective was to test the hypothesis that occupational exposure to EMF is associated with leukemia, including total leukemia (TL), myelogenous leukemia (MYELOG) and acute non-lymphoid leukemia (ANLL). Potential confounding factors: occupational exposure to benzene, age, smoking, alcohol consumption, and previous medical radiation exposures were controlled in multivariate logistic regression models. Dose-response relationships were estimated by cumulative occupational exposure to EMF, taking into account duration of employment and EMF intensity on the jobs. In order to overcome weaknesses of most previous studies, special efforts were made to improve the precision of EMF assessment. Two definitions of EMF were used and result discrepancies using the two definitions were observed. These difference raised a question as to whether the workers at jobs with low EMF exposure should be considered as non-exposed in future studies. In addition, the current study suggested use of lifetime cumulative EMF exposure estimates to determine dose-response relationship. The analyses of the current study suggest an association between ANLL and employment at selected jobs with high EMF exposure. The existence of an association between three types of leukemia and broader categories of occupational EMF exposure, is still undetermined. If an association does exist between occupational EMF exposure and leukemia, the results of the current study suggest that EMF might only be a potential factor in the promotion of leukemia, but not its initiation. ^

Genetic susceptibility, cigarette smoking, and wood dust exposure in lung cancer: Case control analyses

This case control study was conducted to assess the association between lung cancer risk, mutagen sensitivity (a marker of cancer susceptibility), and a putative lung carcinogen, wood dust exposure. There were 165 cases (98 African-Americans, 67 Mexican-Americans) with newly diagnosed, previously untreated lung cancer, and 239 controls, frequency-matched on age, sex, and ethnicity.^ Mutagen sensitivity ($\ge$1 break/cell) was associated with a statistically significant elevated risk for lung cancer (odds ratio (OR) = 4.1, 95% confidence limits (CL) = 2.3,7.2). Wood dust exposure was also a significant predictor of risk (OR = 2.8, 95% CL = 1.2,6.6) after controlling for smoking and mutagen sensitivity. When stratified by ethnicity, wood dust exposure was a significant risk factor for African-Americans (OR = 4.0, 95% CL = 1.4,11.5), but not for Mexican-Americans (OR = 1.5, 95% CL = 0.3,7.1). Stratified analysis suggested a greater than multiplicative interaction between wood dust exposure and both mutagen sensitivity and smoking.^ The cases had significantly more breaks on chromosomes 4 and 5 than the controls did with ORs of 4.9 (95% CL = 2.0, 11.7) and 3.9 (95% CL = 1.6, 9.3), respectively. Breaks at 4p14, 4q27, 4q31, 5q21-22, 5q31, and 5q33 were significantly more common in lung cancer patients than in controls. Lung cancer risk had a dose-response relationship with breaks on chromosomes 4 and 5. Cigarette smoking had a strong interaction with breaks on chromosomes 2, 4, and 5.^ In a molecular cytogenetic study, using chromosome painting and G-banding, we showed that: (1) the proportion of chromosome 5 abnormalities surviving as chromosome-type aberrations remained significantly higher in cells of lung cancer cases (14%) than in controls (5%) (P $<$ 0.001). However, no significant differences were detected in chromosome 4 abnormalities between cases and controls; (2) the proportion of chromosome 5q13-22 abnormalities was 5.3% in the cases and 0.7% in the controls (P $<$ 0.001). 5q13-22 regions represented 40% of all abnormalities on chromosome 5 in the cases and only 14% in the controls.^ This study suggests that mutagen sensitivity, wood dust exposure, and cigarette smoking were independent risk factors for lung cancer, and the susceptibility of particular chromosome loci to mutagenic damage may be a genetic marker for specific types of lung cancer. ^

The role of serotonin in depression and clotting in the coronary artery disease population

Background: The mechanisms underlying the relationship between depression and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) remain unclear. Platelet serotonin has been associated with both depression and coronary artery disease in stable outpatients. Understanding the association between depression and platelet serotonin, during ACS, may explain some of the acute cardiovascular events seen in some individuals with depression. ^ Objectives: This study was designed to evaluate whether levels of platelet serotonin, during ACS, differ between individuals who screen positive for depression and individuals who screen negative for depression and to determine if a dose-response relationship exists between depressive symptoms and platelet serotonin levels. ^ Methods: In this cross-sectional study, data was collected on 51 patients hospitalized for ACS. Multiple linear regression models were used to determine if a relationship exists between depression and platelet serotonin levels. ^ Results: Of the 51 ACS patients, 24 screened positive for depression and 27 screened negative for depression. Platelet serotonin levels were not significantly different between the depressed group (942.10 ± 461.3) and the non-depressed group (1192.41 ± 764.3) (p= .293 and β= -4.093) and a dose-response relationship between depressive symptoms and platelet serotonin levels was not found (p= .250 and β= -.254). ^ Discussion: In this study, a relationship between depression and platelet serotonin levels was not found. Future research should focus on gaining a better understanding of the variables that may influence platelet serotonin levels in the ACS population. ^

A comparison of worker risk of injury while working on fully automated side loaders and other residential collection trucks at a large solid waste collection company

The study aim was to determine whether using automated side loader (ASL) trucks in higher proportions compared to other types of trucks for residential waste collection results in lower injury rates (from all causes). The primary hypothesis was that the risk of injury to workers was lower for those who work with ASL trucks than for workers who work with other types of trucks used in residential waste collection. To test this hypothesis, data were collected from one of the nation’s largest companies in the solid waste management industry. Different local operating units (i.e. facilities) in the company used different types of trucks to varying degrees, which created a special opportunity to examine refuse collection injuries and illnesses and the risk reduction potential of ASL trucks.^ The study design was ecological and analyzed end-of-year data provided by the company for calendar year 2007. During 2007, there were a total of 345 facilities which provided residential services. Each facility represented one observation.^ The dependent variable – injury and illness rate, was defined as a facility’s total case incidence rate (TCIR) recorded in accordance with federal OSHA requirements for the year 2007. The TCIR is the rate of total recordable injury and illness cases per 100 full-time workers. The independent variable, percent of ASL trucks, was calculated by dividing the number of ASL trucks by the total number of residential trucks at each facility.^ Multiple linear regression models were estimated for the impact of the percent of ASL trucks on TCIR per facility. Adjusted analyses included three covariates: median number of hours worked per week for residential workers; median number of months of work experience for residential workers; and median age of residential workers. All analyses were performed with the statistical software, Stata IC (version 11.0).^ The analyses included three approaches to classifying exposure, percent of ASL trucks. The first approach included two levels of exposure: (1) 0% and (2) >0 - <100%. The second approach included three levels of exposure: (1) 0%, (2) ≥ 1 - < 100%, and (3) 100%. The third approach included six levels of exposure to improve detection of a dose-response relationship: (1) 0%, (2) 1 to <25%, (3) 25 to <50%, (4) 50 to <75%, (5) 75 to <100%, and (6) 100%. None of the relationships between injury and illness rate and percent ASL trucks exposure levels was statistically significant (i.e., p<0.05), even after adjustment for all three covariates.^ In summary, the present study shows that there is some risk reduction impact of ASL trucks but not statistically significant. The covariates demonstrated a varied yet more modest impact on the injury and illness rate but again, none of the relationships between injury and illness rate and the covariates were statistically significant (i.e., p<0.05). However, as an ecological study, the present study also has the limitations inherent in such designs and warrants replication in an individual level cohort design. Any stronger conclusions are not suggested.^

Bayesian Adaptive Designs for Early Phase Clinical Trials

My dissertation focuses mainly on Bayesian adaptive designs for phase I and phase II clinical trials. It includes three specific topics: (1) proposing a novel two-dimensional dose-finding algorithm for biological agents, (2) developing Bayesian adaptive screening designs to provide more efficient and ethical clinical trials, and (3) incorporating missing late-onset responses to make an early stopping decision. Treating patients with novel biological agents is becoming a leading trend in oncology. Unlike cytotoxic agents, for which toxicity and efficacy monotonically increase with dose, biological agents may exhibit non-monotonic patterns in their dose-response relationships. Using a trial with two biological agents as an example, we propose a phase I/II trial design to identify the biologically optimal dose combination (BODC), which is defined as the dose combination of the two agents with the highest efficacy and tolerable toxicity. A change-point model is used to reflect the fact that the dose-toxicity surface of the combinational agents may plateau at higher dose levels, and a flexible logistic model is proposed to accommodate the possible non-monotonic pattern for the dose-efficacy relationship. During the trial, we continuously update the posterior estimates of toxicity and efficacy and assign patients to the most appropriate dose combination. We propose a novel dose-finding algorithm to encourage sufficient exploration of untried dose combinations in the two-dimensional space. Extensive simulation studies show that the proposed design has desirable operating characteristics in identifying the BODC under various patterns of dose-toxicity and dose-efficacy relationships. Trials of combination therapies for the treatment of cancer are playing an increasingly important role in the battle against this disease. To more efficiently handle the large number of combination therapies that must be tested, we propose a novel Bayesian phase II adaptive screening design to simultaneously select among possible treatment combinations involving multiple agents. Our design is based on formulating the selection procedure as a Bayesian hypothesis testing problem in which the superiority of each treatment combination is equated to a single hypothesis. During the trial conduct, we use the current values of the posterior probabilities of all hypotheses to adaptively allocate patients to treatment combinations. Simulation studies show that the proposed design substantially outperforms the conventional multi-arm balanced factorial trial design. The proposed design yields a significantly higher probability for selecting the best treatment while at the same time allocating substantially more patients to efficacious treatments. The proposed design is most appropriate for the trials combining multiple agents and screening out the efficacious combination to be further investigated. The proposed Bayesian adaptive phase II screening design substantially outperformed the conventional complete factorial design. Our design allocates more patients to better treatments while at the same time providing higher power to identify the best treatment at the end of the trial. Phase II trial studies usually are single-arm trials which are conducted to test the efficacy of experimental agents and decide whether agents are promising to be sent to phase III trials. Interim monitoring is employed to stop the trial early for futility to avoid assigning unacceptable number of patients to inferior treatments. We propose a Bayesian single-arm phase II design with continuous monitoring for estimating the response rate of the experimental drug. To address the issue of late-onset responses, we use a piece-wise exponential model to estimate the hazard function of time to response data and handle the missing responses using the multiple imputation approach. We evaluate the operating characteristics of the proposed method through extensive simulation studies. We show that the proposed method reduces the total length of the trial duration and yields desirable operating characteristics for different physician-specified lower bounds of response rate with different true response rates.