Contextual factors multiplex to control multisensory processes.

This study analyzed high-density event-related potentials (ERPs) within an electrical neuroimaging framework to provide insights regarding the interaction between multisensory processes and stimulus probabilities. Specifically, we identified the spatiotemporal brain mechanisms by which the proportion of temporally congruent and task-irrelevant auditory information influences stimulus processing during a visual duration discrimination task. The spatial position (top/bottom) of the visual stimulus was indicative of how frequently the visual and auditory stimuli would be congruent in their duration (i.e., context of congruence). Stronger influences of irrelevant sound were observed when contexts associated with a high proportion of auditory-visual congruence repeated and also when contexts associated with a low proportion of congruence switched. Context of congruence and context transition resulted in weaker brain responses at 228 to 257 ms poststimulus to conditions giving rise to larger behavioral cross-modal interactions. Importantly, a control oddball task revealed that both congruent and incongruent audiovisual stimuli triggered equivalent non-linear multisensory interactions when congruence was not a relevant dimension. Collectively, these results are well explained by statistical learning, which links a particular context (here: a spatial location) with a certain level of top-down attentional control that further modulates cross-modal interactions based on whether a particular context repeated or changed. The current findings shed new light on the importance of context-based control over multisensory processing, whose influences multiplex across finer and broader time scales.

Modelling the consequences of a reduction in alcohol consumption among patients with alcohol dependence based on real-life observational data.

BACKGROUND: Most available pharmacotherapies for alcohol-dependent patients target abstinence; however, reduced alcohol consumption may be a more realistic goal. Using randomized clinical trial (RCT) data, a previous microsimulation model evaluated the clinical relevance of reduced consumption in terms of avoided alcohol-attributable events. Using real-life observational data, the current analysis aimed to adapt the model and confirm previous findings about the clinical relevance of reduced alcohol consumption. METHODS: Based on the prospective observational CONTROL study, evaluating daily alcohol consumption among alcohol-dependent patients, the model predicted the probability of drinking any alcohol during a given day. Predicted daily alcohol consumption was simulated in a hypothetical sample of 200,000 patients observed over a year. Individual total alcohol consumption (TAC) and number of heavy drinking days (HDD) were derived. Using published risk equations, probabilities of alcohol-attributable adverse health events (e.g., hospitalizations or death) corresponding to simulated consumptions were computed, and aggregated for categories of patients defined by HDDs and TAC (expressed per 100,000 patient-years). Sensitivity analyses tested model robustness. RESULTS: Shifting from >220 HDDs per year to 120-140 HDDs and shifting from 36,000-39,000 g TAC per year (120-130 g/day) to 15,000-18,000 g TAC per year (50-60 g/day) impacted substantially on the incidence of events (14,588 and 6148 events avoided per 100,000 patient-years, respectively). Results were robust to sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: This study corroborates the previous microsimulation modeling approach and, using real-life data, confirms RCT-based findings that reduced alcohol consumption is a relevant objective for consideration in alcohol dependence management to improve public health.

Development of a population-based cost-effectiveness model of chronic graft versus host disease in Spain

Chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGvHD) is the leading cause of late nonrelapse mortality (transplant-related mortality) after hematopoietic stem cell transplant. Given that there are a wide range of treatment options for cGvHD, assessment of the associated costs and efficacy can help clinicians and health care providers allocate health care resources more efficiently. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of extracorporeal photopheresis (ECP) compared with rituximab (Rmb) and with imatinib (Imt) in patients with cGvHD at 5 years from the perspective of the Spanish National Health System. METHODS: The model assessed the incremental cost-effectiveness/utility ratio of ECP versus Rmb or Imt for 1000 hypothetical patients by using microsimulation cost-effectiveness techniques. Model probabilities were obtained from the literature. Treatment pathways and adverse events were evaluated taking clinical opinion and published reports into consideration. Local data on costs (2010 Euros) and health care resources utilization were validated by the clinical authors. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to assess the robustness of the model. RESULTS: The greater efficacy of ECP resulted in a gain of 0.011 to 0.024 quality-adjusted life-year in the first year and 0.062 to 0.094 at year 5 compared with Rmb or Imt. The results showed that the higher acquisition cost of ECP versus Imt was compensated for at 9 months by greater efficacy; this higher cost was partially compensated for ( 517) by year 5 versus Rmb. After 9 months, ECP was dominant (cheaper and more effective) compared with Imt. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of ECP versus Rmb was 29,646 per life-year gained and 24,442 per quality-adjusted life-year gained at year 2.5. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed the results. The main study limitation was that to assess relative treatment effects, only small studies were available for indirect comparison. CONCLUSION: ECP as a third-line therapy for cGvHD is a more cost-effective strategy than Rmb or Imt.

Dismissal of the illusion of uncertainty in the assessment of a likelihood ratio

The use of the Bayes factor (BF) or likelihood ratio as a metric to assess the probative value of forensic traces is largely supported by operational standards and recommendations in different forensic disciplines. However, the progress towards more widespread consensus about foundational principles is still fragile as it raises new problems about which views differ. It is not uncommon e.g. to encounter scientists who feel the need to compute the probability distribution of a given expression of evidential value (i.e. a BF), or to place intervals or significance probabilities on such a quantity. The article here presents arguments to show that such views involve a misconception of principles and abuse of language. The conclusion of the discussion is that, in a given case at hand, forensic scientists ought to offer to a court of justice a given single value for the BF, rather than an expression based on a distribution over a range of values.

A Meta-Analysis of Trabecular Bone Score in Fracture Risk Prediction and Its Relationship to FRAX.

Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level textural index of bone microarchitecture derived from lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. TBS is a bone mineral density (BMD)-independent predictor of fracture risk. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine whether TBS predicted fracture risk independently of FRAX probability and to examine their combined performance by adjusting the FRAX probability for TBS. We utilized individual-level data from 17,809 men and women in 14 prospective population-based cohorts. Baseline evaluation included TBS and the FRAX risk variables, and outcomes during follow-up (mean 6.7 years) comprised major osteoporotic fractures. The association between TBS, FRAX probabilities, and the risk of fracture was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and for each sex and expressed as the gradient of risk (GR; hazard ratio per 1 SD change in risk variable in direction of increased risk). FRAX probabilities were adjusted for TBS using an adjustment factor derived from an independent cohort (the Manitoba Bone Density Cohort). Overall, the GR of TBS for major osteoporotic fracture was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-1.53) when adjusted for age and time since baseline and was similar in men and women (p > 0.10). When additionally adjusted for FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture, TBS remained a significant, independent predictor for fracture (GR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.24-1.41). The adjustment of FRAX probability for TBS resulted in a small increase in the GR (1.76, 95% CI 1.65-1.87 versus 1.70, 95% CI 1.60-1.81). A smaller change in GR for hip fracture was observed (FRAX hip fracture probability GR 2.25 vs. 2.22). TBS is a significant predictor of fracture risk independently of FRAX. The findings support the use of TBS as a potential adjustment for FRAX probability, though the impact of the adjustment remains to be determined in the context of clinical assessment guidelines. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

The chemistry of peroxynitrite, a biological toxin

Oxyradicals play a tole in several diseases. While for several decades the hydroxyl radical - produced via the Fenton reaction - has been considered the species that initiates oxyradical damage, new findings suggest that much of this damage can be ascribed to peroxynitrite, O=NOO-, formed from the reaction of the superoxide anion with nitrogen monoxide near activated macrophages. The rate constant for the reaction of this reaction has been investigated by flash photolysis and was found to be significantly higher than previously described in the literature, 1.9 x 10(10) M-1s-1. Studies of the isomerization to nitrate resulted in the discovery of a complex between peroxynitrite and its protonated form with a stability constant of 1 x 10(4) M-1. Some of the harmful reaction of peroxynitrous acid have been ascribed to the hydroxyl radical as a product of homolysis of the O-O bond during the conversion to nitrate. Kinetics of the isomerization reaction as a function of pressure show that the activation volume is only +1.5+1.0 ml mol-1, which is inconsistent with homolysis. Instead, an intermediate, possibly a distorted trans-isomer of O=NOOH could be responsible for the harmful reactions of peroxynitrite.

Statistical Methods for Conservation and Alignment Quality in Proteins

Construction of multiple sequence alignments is a fundamental task in Bioinformatics. Multiple sequence alignments are used as a prerequisite in many Bioinformatics methods, and subsequently the quality of such methods can be critically dependent on the quality of the alignment. However, automatic construction of a multiple sequence alignment for a set of remotely related sequences does not always provide biologically relevant alignments.Therefore, there is a need for an objective approach for evaluating the quality of automatically aligned sequences. The profile hidden Markov model is a powerful approach in comparative genomics. In the profile hidden Markov model, the symbol probabilities are estimated at each conserved alignment position. This can increase the dimension of parameter space and cause an overfitting problem. These two research problems are both related to conservation. We have developed statistical measures for quantifying the conservation of multiple sequence alignments. Two types of methods are considered, those identifying conserved residues in an alignment position, and those calculating positional conservation scores. The positional conservation score was exploited in a statistical prediction model for assessing the quality of multiple sequence alignments. The residue conservation score was used as part of the emission probability estimation method proposed for profile hidden Markov models. The results of the predicted alignment quality score highly correlated with the correct alignment quality scores, indicating that our method is reliable for assessing the quality of any multiple sequence alignment. The comparison of the emission probability estimation method with the maximum likelihood method showed that the number of estimated parameters in the model was dramatically decreased, while the same level of accuracy was maintained. To conclude, we have shown that conservation can be successfully used in the statistical model for alignment quality assessment and in the estimation of emission probabilities in the profile hidden Markov models.

Drivers and Barriers of Collaboration in the Value Chain of Paperboard-Packed Consumer Goods

Value chain collaboration has been a prevailing topic for research, and there is a constantly growing interest in developing collaborative models for improved efficiency in logistics. One area of collaboration is demand information management, which enables improved visibility and decrease of inventories in the value chain. Outsourcing of non-core competencies has changed the nature of collaboration from intra-enterprise to cross-enterprise activity, and this together with increasing competition in the globalizing markets have created a need for methods and tools for collaborative work. The retailer part in the value chain of consumer packaged goods (CPG) has been studied relatively widely, proven models have been defined, and there exist several best practice collaboration cases. The information and communications technology has developed rapidly, offering efficient solutions and applications to exchange information between value chain partners. However, the majority of CPG industry still works with traditional business models and practices. This concerns especially companies operating in the upstream of the CPG value chain. Demand information for consumer packaged goods originates at retailers' counters, based on consumers' buying decisions. As this information does not get transferred along the value chain towards the upstream parties, each player needs to optimize their part, causing safety margins for inventories and speculation in purchasing decisions. The safety margins increase with each player, resulting in a phenomenon known as the bullwhip effect. The further the company is from the original demand information source, the more distorted the information is. This thesis concentrates on the upstream parts of the value chain of consumer packaged goods, and more precisely the packaging value chain. Packaging is becoming a part of the product with informative and interactive features, and therefore is not just a cost item needed to protect the product. The upstream part of the CPG value chain is distinctive, as the product changes after each involved party, and therefore the original demand information from the retailers cannot be utilized as such – even if it were transferred seamlessly. The objective of this thesis is to examine the main drivers for collaboration, and barriers causing the moderate adaptation level of collaborative models. Another objective is to define a collaborative demand information management model and test it in a pilot business situation in order to see if the barriers can be eliminated. The empirical part of this thesis contains three parts, all related to the research objective, but involving different target groups, viewpoints and research approaches. The study shows evidence that the main barriers for collaboration are very similar to the barriers in the lower part of the same value chain; lack of trust, lack of business case and lack of senior management commitment. Eliminating one of them – the lack of business case – is not enough to eliminate the two other barriers, as the operational model in this thesis shows. The uncertainty of the future, fear of losing an independent position in purchasing decision making and lack of commitment remain strong enough barriers to prevent the implementation of the proposed collaborative business model. The study proposes a new way of defining the value chain processes: it divides the contracting and planning process into two processes, one managing the commercial parts and the other managing the quantity and specification related issues. This model can reduce the resistance to collaboration, as the commercial part of the contracting process would remain the same as in the traditional model. The quantity/specification-related issues would be managed by the parties with the best capabilities and resources, as well as access to the original demand information. The parties in between would be involved in the planning process as well, as their impact for the next party upstream is significant. The study also highlights the future challenges for companies operating in the CPG value chain. The markets are becoming global, with toughening competition. Also, the technology development will most likely continue with a speed exceeding the adaptation capabilities of the industry. Value chains are also becoming increasingly dynamic, which means shorter and more agile business relationships, and at the same time the predictability of consumer demand is getting more difficult due to shorter product life cycles and trends. These changes will certainly have an effect on companies' operational models, but it is very difficult to estimate when and how the proven methods will gain wide enough adaptation to become standards.

Monte Carlo simulation of x-ray spectra generated by kilo-electron-volt electrons

We present a general algorithm for the simulation of x-ray spectra emitted from targets of arbitrary composition bombarded with kilovolt electron beams. Electron and photon transport is simulated by means of the general-purpose Monte Carlo code PENELOPE, using the standard, detailed simulation scheme. Bremsstrahlung emission is described by using a recently proposed algorithm, in which the energy of emitted photons is sampled from numerical cross-section tables, while the angular distribution of the photons is represented by an analytical expression with parameters determined by fitting benchmark shape functions obtained from partial-wave calculations. Ionization of K and L shells by electron impact is accounted for by means of ionization cross sections calculated from the distorted-wave Born approximation. The relaxation of the excited atoms following the ionization of an inner shell, which proceeds through emission of characteristic x rays and Auger electrons, is simulated until all vacancies have migrated to M and outer shells. For comparison, measurements of x-ray emission spectra generated by 20 keV electrons impinging normally on multiple bulk targets of pure elements, which span the periodic system, have been performed using an electron microprobe. Simulation results are shown to be in close agreement with these measurements.

Dissulfeto de molibdênio, um material multifuncional e surpreendente

The aim of this work is to review the chemical and physical properties of layered molybdenum disulfide. The three polymorphic/polytypic modifications of the compound were found, the polytypes 2H (molybdenite) and 3R are semiconductors while the polymorph 1T is an electronic conductor. 2H-MoS2 has several important industrial applications as hydrotreatment catalysts, energy storage devices, solar cells, solid lubricants, among others. When intercalated, the 2H phase changes to a distorted 1T phase, producing unstable intercalation compounds that can be exfoliated in solution, producing single layers and consequently nanocomposites. The direct synthesis of the 1T phase produces stable intercalation compounds. Recently molybdenum disulfide was prepared as nanotubes and fulerene-like structures that bring new insights in the investigation of this important material.

Hankintojen johtamisen riskikartoitus: Case tutkimus

Tutkielma käsittelee kohdeyrityksen hankintatoimen riskitekijöitä sekä riskienhallintaa. Tutkielmassa tehdään kohdeyritykselle riskikartoitus sekä analysoidaan tärkeimpiä riskitekijöitä ja tunnistetaan kohdeyritykselle uusia riskinäkökulmia. Tässä tutkielmassa emipiirinen osuus keskittyy kohdeyrityksen tämänhetkiseen riskienhallintaan sekä riskitekijöihin, joita yritys kohtaa. Teoreettinen osuus toimii tutkielman viitekehyksenä riskitekijöiden ja riskienhallinnan osalta sekä antaa työkalut tutkielman empiiriselle analyysille. Tutkimus on toteutettu kvalitatiivisena haastattelututkimuksena sekä analysoitu teoreettisten mallien avulla. Työssä esitetään teoreettisia riskimalleja ja työkaluja riskienhallinnalle sekä riskiprosessille. Lisäksi esitetään kohdeyrityksen riskien arviointitaulukko sekä riskikartoitustaulukot. Riskille ominaista on sen toteutumisesta aiheutuneet vahingot tai kustannukset. Hankintatoimen riskit ovat lähinnä liiketoiminnallisia riskejä, joiden taustalla nähdään aina olevan tuotto-odotuksia. Riskienhallinnalla tarkoitetaan toimia joita tehdään riskien toteutumisen todennäköisyyden minimoimiseksi sekä toteutumisesta koituvien kustannuksien ja vahinkojen minimoimiseksi.

Synthesis, structure and physicochemical properties of zinc and copper complexes based on sulfonamides containing 8-aminoquinoline ligands

Sulfonamides obtained by reaction of 8-aminoquinoline with 4-nitrobenzenesulfonylchloride and 2,4,6-triisopropylbenzenesulfonyl chloride were used to synthesize coordination compounds with CuII and ZnII with a ML2 composition. Determination of the crystal structures of the resulting zinc and copper complexes by X-ray diffraction show a distorted tetrahedral environment for the [Cu(qnbsa)2], [Cu(qibsa)2] and [Zn(qibsa)2] complexes in which the sulfonamide group acts as a bidentate ligand through the nitrogen atoms from the sulfonamidate and quinoline groups. The complex [Zn(qnbsa)2] crystallizes with a water molecule from the solvent and the Zn is five-coordinated and shows a bipyramidal-trigonal geometry. The electrochemical and electronic spectroscopy properties of the copper complexes are also discussed.

Simulação Monte Carlo no ensino de luminescência e cinética de decaimento de estados excitados

A software based in the Monte Carlo method have been developed aiming the teaching of important cases of mechanisms found in luminescence and in excited states decay kinetics, including: multiple decays, consecutive decays and coupled systems decays. The Monte Carlo Method allows the student to easily simulate and visualize the luminescence mechanisms, focusing on the probabilities of the related steps. The software CINESTEX was written for FreeBASIC compiler; it assumes first-order kinetics and any number of excited states, where the pathways are allowed with probabilities assigned by the user.

Crystal structures of 5-chloro-2-methoxybenzoates of Mn(II), Co(II), Ni(II) and Zn(II)

The crystal and molecular structures of [bis(5-chloro-2-methoxybenzoate)tetraaquamanganese(II)], [pentaaqua(5-chloro-2-methoxybenzoato)cobalt(II)] (5-chloro-2-methoxybenzoate), [pentaaqua(5-chloro-2-methoxybenzoato)nickel(II)] (5-chloro-2-methoxybenzoate) and [aquabis(5-chloro-2-methoxybenzoate)zinc(II)] monohydrate were determined by a single-crystal X-ray analysis. Mn(H2O)4L2 (where L = C8H6ClO3) crystallizes in the monoclinic system, space group P21/c. [Co(H2O)5L]L and [Ni(H2O)5L]L both are isostructural, space group P212121. The crystals of [Zn(H2O)L2] H2O are monoclinic, space group Pc. Mn(II) ion is positioned at the crystallographic symmetry center. Mn(II) and Co(II) ions adopt the distorted octahedral coordination but Zn(II) tetrahedral one.The carboxylate groups in the complexes with M(II) cations function as monodentate, bidentate and/or free COO-groups. The ligands exist in the crystals as aquaanions. The complexes of 5-chloro-2-methoxybenzoates with Mn(II), Co(II) and Zn(II) form bilayer structure.

Biheterocyclic ligands: synthesis, characterization and coordinating properties of bis(4-amino-5-mercapto-1,2,4-triazol-3-yl) alkanes with transition metal ions and their thermokinetic and biological studies

The Co(II), Ni(II) and Cu(II) metal ions complexes of Bis(4-amino-5-mercapto-1,2,4-triazol-3-yl) alkanes (BATs) have been prepared and characterized by elemental analysis, conductivity measurements infrared, magnetic susceptibility, the electronic spectral data and thermal studies. Based on spectral and magnetic results, the ligands are tetradentate coordinating through the N and S-atoms of BATs; six-coordinated octahedral or distorted octahedral and some times four-coordinated square planar were proposed for these complexes. Activation energies computed for the thermal decomposition steps were compared. The ligands and their metal complexes were tested in vitro for their biological effects. Their activities against two gram-positive, two gram-negative bacteria and two fungal species were found to vary from moderate to very strong.