Examining the predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 using multiple NWP systems

The first multi-model study to estimate the predictability of a boreal Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is performed using five NWP systems. During the 2012-2013 boreal winter, anomalous upward propagating planetary wave activity was observed towards the end of December, which followed by a rapid deceleration of the westerly circulation around 2 January 2013, and on 7 January 2013 the zonal mean zonal wind at 60°N and 10 hPa reversed to easterly. This stratospheric dynamical activity was followed by an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet stream and by a high pressure anomaly over the North Atlantic, which resulted in severe cold conditions in the UK and Northern Europe. In most of the five models, the SSW event was predicted 10 days in advance. However, only some ensemble members in most of the models predicted weakening of westerly wind when the models were initialized 15 days in advance of the SSW. Further dynamical analysis of the SSW shows that this event was characterized by the anomalous planetary wave-1 amplification followed by the anomalous wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere, which resulted in a split vortex occurring between 6 January 2013 and 8 January 2013. The models have some success in reproducing wave-1 activity when initialized 15 days in advance, they but generally failed to produce the wave-2 activity during the final days of the event. Detailed analysis shows that models have reasonably good skill in forecasting tropospheric blocking features that stimulate wave-2 amplification in the troposphere, but they have limited skill in reproducing wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere.

Política de turismo e desenvolvimento: uma avaliação do prodetur ii em Parnamirim/RN (2005-2012)

A dissertação avalia a efetividade do Programa de Desenvolvimento do Turismo na segunda fase (2005-2012) no município de Parnamirim/RN, busca-se verificar se este contribui para o desenvolvimento. Especificamente objetivou: a) Descrever as características e as ações do Programa de Desenvolvimento do Turismo no município de Parnamirim/RN; b) Identificar as percepções dos gestores públicos; da iniciativa privada e da sociedade civil a respeito da efetividade das ações do PRODETUR em Parnamirim e das repercussões do programa na qualidade de vida da população local; e c) Identificar as efetivações do PRODETUR na vida da população local que tenha participado de alguma ação do programa. Para tais pretensões, o percurso envolvendo a emergência e a consolidação do fenômeno turístico no seio da sociedade moderna, bem como o momento de intervenção do Estado no setor foi importante para verificar quais características estão imbuídas nas políticas públicas de turismo. Aliado a discussão do desenvolvimento para além do viés economicista, tendo as contribuições de Amartya Sen (desenvolvimento como liberdade) eixo norteador. Para a avaliação propriamente dita foram utilizadas as falas dos diversos atores locais envolvidos com o programa, compreendendo: gestão pública do turismo, iniciativa privada, sociedade civil e população local. Além de dados secundários coletados em instituições como IBGE e Secretaria Municipal/ Estadual de Turismo. Os resultados encontrados com a pesquisa nos mostraram que o PRODETUR II contribui com alguns elementos que podem cooperar para o desenvolvimento de Parnamirim/RN, pois este ocasiona efetivações significativas em cada bairro pesquisado. No entanto, é relevante observar que esses elementos estão aquém das reais possibilidades, uma vez que os resultados do programa poderiam ter sido mais substanciais. Neste sentido, ressaltamos que o fortalecimento da gestão pública e a mobilização da população local são elementos imprescindíveis para maior efetividade do PRODETUR nas próximas etapas

Rejeição e voto em eleição contemporânea: um estudo de caso da eleição à prefeitura do município de Natal/RN (2012)

Given the importance that political science and social sciences give studies of voting behavior, this study sought to fill this academic discussion another important element that makes up this complex set. From the campaign trail to City Christmas in 2012 work has been undertaken analysis of rejection in the first and second rounds of this election. For this analysis we used two sources of data: quantitative research, conducted by Search Consult the first and second rounds of elections, and the use of focus group technique, performed in the second round of elections. Knowing the various factors that may affect the voting decision, but also the dynamism that pervades a political dispute, seek, with this work, contribute to the deepening of the rejection of studies, aiming to bring subsidies presenting information to better explain the behavior studies election. The results showed that there is a less expressive, the chamda strong rejection. We speak of that rejection based on a political, historical and ideological. The reason for the weak presence of strong rejection seems to be little involvement of voters with politics and, consequently, low knowledge about politics and politicians. We observe, however, evidence of rejection volatile. We refer here to a kind of rejection that develops during the election process depending on the preference of the voter and according to the circumstances of the campaign. The data also lead us to conclude that television is as an instrument for the dissemination of ideas that can contribute in shaping the opinion of viewers. The role of political parties in representing the interests of the people have lost their strength in recent years. The data also show that, to the extent that increases the preference of voters in the electoral process, also increases its rejection

Desenvolvimento e autonomia das mulheres: uma avaliação do POPMR na região oeste potiguar - 2008/2012

The dissertation evaluates about Rural Women s Productive Organization Program effectiveness of Western Rio Grande do Norte(2008-2012). Specifically, it has aimed to: 1) Describe about Rural Women s Productive Organization Program characteristics in Western Potiguar Region; 2) Investigate which social economic changes the program has caused in Rural Women s lives from Western Potiguar Region; 3) Evaluate whether women s participation in the feminist social movement has contributed in order to facilitate access to the program; 4) evaluate whether rural women s participation from western Potiguar region in POPMR has provoked some questions in relation to labor sexual division in policy all female users or whether it has amplified their capacities for their economical autonomy conquest. The evaluation has been as reference the development concept as freedom according to Amartya Sen (2000) and labor sex division sustained by separation and hierarchy activities performed by men and women according to Kergoat (2009). The qualitative character investigation was made up by a bibliographical and documental research, semi-structured interviews and focal group. The interviews with female mediator agents and female public managers have demonstrated the paths how to create the program by explaining the difficulties and possibilities. The research was concluded with focal groups that had accessed POPMR in western region. With the methodological instruments used, it was possible to achieve the results: The research data show that POPMR has contributed for the region development specifically by expanding rural women s capacities. However, there are still some difficulties which could be overcome with a state actualization, as policies for home labor and home labor care socialization. In this way, the infrastructure construction for production and reproduction must be based on a kind of legislation for a small production which are indispensable elements for a bigger effective policy for women in a rural environment

Uma análise sociodemográfica dos cuidadores formais de idosos institucionalizados no município de Natal/RN, 2012

The aging population and individual have been the subject of a multitude of studies nowadays. This is probably due to the impact of this phenomenon in various sectors of society, like social security, social assistance and public health. The process of aging of the individual imply the demand for specific services, considering the limitations and vulnerabilities of the individual at that stage of life cycle. The growth of the elderly contingent in the last decades raises challenges for policymakers, the family and also for the society at large. In this scenario, long-stay institutions for the elderly (LSIEs) appear as an option to aid and support the elderly and their family, assisting in all or part in the activities of daily living and self-care. Inside these LSIEs we find the professional responsible for the direct care of the elderly, the formal caregiver. In this context, this dissertation presents two main objectives: an analysis of the phenomenon of population aging in a given brazilian municipality Natal / RN, based on the Demographic Censuses of 2000 e 2010; and a social, demographic and economic characterization of the Formal caregiver for the institutionalized elderly in the municipality, evaluating aspects of his quality of life and also analyzing the institutions where they are inserted. Furthermore, we intend to identify demographic, socioeconomic and quality of life factors that are correlated with caregivers quitting the job. The data used in the second part of this work comes from the research project named Long-Stay Institutions for Elderly: abandonment or a family need? . This survey interviewed 92 caregivers in eleven LSIEs in Natal/RN. In the data treatment logistic regressions, cluster analysis and statistical tests were used. The survey revealed that aging in Natal is more pronounced in the older, more traditional districts: Petrópolis, Lagoa Seca and Tirol. It also allowed a broad characterization of the formal caregivers in LSIEs. Most of these professionals are female. The educational level is predominantly complete high school and more. Most caregivers reported being married or in union, or have ever been in a union. Family monthly income is under three times the minimum wage. The mean age is of 37.4 years. The mean time of work as a caregiver was 5.93 years. The associations showed that being woman, not being single, having caregiving training and physical limitations (regarding quality of life) are related to wanting to quit the caregiving job. As for the characterization of the LSIEs, it was found that the philanthropic ones are older and have most (62.5%) of the institutionalized elderly. The institutions managers gave social interaction and affinity with the elderly as the main criteria with which to evaluate and hire caregivers. It is intended with this study to contribute to improving the quality of life of the elderly and their caregiver, providing information on aspects of institutionalization of elderly both in the philanthropic and particular institutions, in Natal/RN; this dissertation may also be used as a starting point for later works

Crescimento econômico e restrição externa da economia brasileira: uma análise do padrão das exportações em relação ao BRIC e do Sistema de Inovação do Brasil (1980-2012)

This Master s Thesis aims to use the theoretical models of growth with restricted balance of payments, specifically Kaldor (1970) and Thirlwall (1979) models, to analyze the behavior and the pattern of specialization of Brazilian exports and imports in the last years. It is observed that, in some periods, the pattern of specialization has contributed in restricting long-term growth of the Brazilian economy. It has been hypothesized that overall this is due to lack of structural transformation policies. To achieve this goal, it analyzed the performance of Brazilian exports and imports disaggregating them according to their technological content. The basis for comparison was a group of countries to which Brazil is inserted in, the BRIC. In this regard, the work is a comparative analysis by using descriptive statistics. It is concluded that the low rate of GDP growth experienced by Brazil since the 1980s can be explained in part by the decoupling of the Brazilian National Innovation System (NIS) and the Brazilian productive structure. This would be reducing the income elasticity of exports and raising imports, causing a pattern of specialization intensive primary commodities and labor and low-skill labor

Fatores que influenciam na efetivação de ações para o desenvolvimento do turismo municipal: uma análise da regionalização do turismo no Rio Grande do Norte no ano de 2012

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

O espaço do consumo e o consumo do espaço no município de Macaíba-RN a partir das festas de Vaquejada (1980-2012)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe 2013: tres décadas de crecimiento económico desigual e inestable

Incluye Bibliografía

Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2013: Three decades of uneven and unstable growth

Includes bibliography

Temario provisional

TEMARIO PROVISIONAL 1. Elección de la Mesa 2. Aprobación del temario provisional y organización de los trabajos del trigésimo tercer período de sesiones 3. Presentación y análisis del documento titulado "La hora de la igualdad: brechas por cerrar, caminos por abrir" 4. Informe de actividades de la CEPAL realizadas desde su trigésimo segundo período de sesiones 5. Proyecto de programa de trabajo del sistema de la CEPAL, 2012-2013 6. Calendario de conferencias de la CEPAL propuesto para el período 2010-2012 7. Comité de Cooperación Sur-Sur 8. Otros asuntos 9. Consideración y aprobación de las resoluciones del trigésimo tercer período de sesiones de la CEPAL

Orçamento participativo em Fortaleza/CE: construção de uma nova cultura política? (Gestão: PT – 2005 a 2008 e de 2009 a 2012)

Pós-graduação em Ciências Sociais - FFC

Policiamento ambiental: políticas públicas e tráfico de animais silvestres (oeste do Estado de São Paulo, 1998 a 2012)

Pós-graduação em História - FCLAS

El patrón alimentario del libre comercio

Incluye Bibliografía. Premio internacional de investigación en desarrollo económico Juan F. Noyola 2012-2013, 1er. lugar.

Estudo econômico da América Latina e do Caribe 2013: três décadas de crescimento desigual e inestável

A edição número 65 do Estudo Econômico da América Latina e do Caribe corresponde ao biênio 2012 2013. Tal como as edições anteriores, na primeira parte se analisa o desempenho recente das economias da região e suas perspectivas para o ano, e na segunda se discutem aspectos de longo prazo do desenvolvimento econômico da América Latina e do Caribe. Finalmente, na página web da CEPAL (www.cepal.org) podem-se consultar as notas de países, onde se analisa a conjuntura das economias da América Latina e do Caribe durante 2012 e o primeiro semestre de 2013, bem como o anexo estatístico, em que se mostra a evolução dos principais indicadores econômicos. Os quadros do anexo estatístico permitem visualizar rapidamente a informação dos últimos anos e criar quadros em folhas de cálculo eletrônicas.