Web based expert elicitation of uncertainties in environmental model inputs

When constructing and using environmental models, it is typical that many of the inputs to the models will not be known perfectly. In some cases, it will be possible to make observations, or occasionally physics-based uncertainty propagation, to ascertain the uncertainty on these inputs. However, such observations are often either not available or even possible, and another approach to characterising the uncertainty on the inputs must be sought. Even when observations are available, if the analysis is being carried out within a Bayesian framework then prior distributions will have to be specified. One option for gathering or at least estimating this information is to employ expert elicitation. Expert elicitation is well studied within statistics and psychology and involves the assessment of the beliefs of a group of experts about an uncertain quantity, (for example an input / parameter within a model), typically in terms of obtaining a probability distribution. One of the challenges in expert elicitation is to minimise the biases that might enter into the judgements made by the individual experts, and then to come to a consensus decision within the group of experts. Effort is made in the elicitation exercise to prevent biases clouding the judgements through well-devised questioning schemes. It is also important that, when reaching a consensus, the experts are exposed to the knowledge of the others in the group. Within the FP7 UncertWeb project (http://www.uncertweb.org/), there is a requirement to build a Webbased tool for expert elicitation. In this paper, we discuss some of the issues of building a Web-based elicitation system - both the technological aspects and the statistical and scientific issues. In particular, we demonstrate two tools: a Web-based system for the elicitation of continuous random variables and a system designed to elicit uncertainty about categorical random variables in the setting of landcover classification uncertainty. The first of these examples is a generic tool developed to elicit uncertainty about univariate continuous random variables. It is designed to be used within an application context and extends the existing SHELF method, adding a web interface and access to metadata. The tool is developed so that it can be readily integrated with environmental models exposed as web services. The second example was developed for the TREES-3 initiative which monitors tropical landcover change through ground-truthing at confluence points. It allows experts to validate the accuracy of automated landcover classifications using site-specific imagery and local knowledge. Experts may provide uncertainty information at various levels: from a general rating of their confidence in a site validation to a numerical ranking of the possible landcover types within a segment. A key challenge in the web based setting is the design of the user interface and the method of interacting between the problem owner and the problem experts. We show the workflow of the elicitation tool, and show how we can represent the final elicited distributions and confusion matrices using UncertML, ready for integration into uncertainty enabled workflows.We also show how the metadata associated with the elicitation exercise is captured and can be referenced from the elicited result, providing crucial lineage information and thus traceability in the decision making process.

Collaborative alliances and organisational innovation : a study of the innovation process

Despite the voluminous studies written about organisational innovation over the last 30-40 years our understanding of this phenomenon continues to be inconsistent and inconclusive (Wolfe, 1994). An assessment of the theoretical and methodological issues influencing the explanatory utility of many studies has led scholars (e.g. Slappendel, 1996) to re-evaluate the assumptions used to ground studies. Building on these criticisms the current study contributes to the development of an interactive perspective of organisational innovation. This work contributes empirically and theoretically to an improved understanding of the innovation process and the interaction between the realm of action and the mediating effects of pre-existing contingencies i.e. social control, economic exchange and the communicability of knowledge (Scarbrough, 1996). Building on recent advances in institutional theory (see Barley, 1986; 1990; Barley and Tolbert, 1997) and critical theory (Morrow, 1994, Sayer, 1992) the study aims to demonstrate, via longitudinal intensive research, the process through which ideas are translated into reality. This is significant because, despite a growing recognition of the implicit link between the strategic conduct of actors and the institutional realm in organisational analysis, there are few examples that theorise and empirically test these connections. By assessing an under researched example of technology transfer; the government's Teaching Company Scheme (TCS) this project provides a critique of the innovation process that contributes to theory and our appreciation of change in the UK government's premier technology transfer scheme (QR, 1996). Critical moments during the translation of ideas illustrate how elements that are linked to social control, economic exchange and communicability mediate the innovation process. Using analytical categories i.e. contradiction, slippage and dysfunctionality these are assessed in relation to the actions (coping strategies) of programme members over a two-year period. Drawing on Giddens' (1995) notion of the duality of structure this study explores the nature of the relationship between the task environment and institutional environment demonstrating how and why knowledge is both an enabler and barrier to organisational innovation.

The evolving role of information specialists:change agents in process redesign

The research investigates the past, present and potential future role of Information Specialists (ISps) in process oriented companies. It tests the proposition that ISps in companies that have undertaken formal process reengineering exercises are likely to become more proactive and more business oriented (as opposed to technically oriented) than they had previously been when their organisations were organised along traditional, functional lines. A review of existing literature in the area of Business Process Reengineering and Information Management reveals a lack of consensus amongst researchers concerning the appropriate role for ISps during and after BPR. Opinion is divided as to whether IS professionals should reactively support BPR or whether IT/IS developments should be driving these initiatives. A questionnaire based ‘Descriptive Survey’ with 60 respondents is used as a first stage of primary data gathering. This is followed by follow-up interviews with 20 of the participating organisations to gather further information on their experiences. The final stage of data collection consists of further in-depth interview with four case study companies to provide an even richer picture of their experiences. The results of the questionnaire are analysed and displayed in the form of simple means, frequencies and bar graphs. The ‘NU-DIST’ computer based discourse analysis package was tried in relation to summarising the interview findings, but this proved cumbersome and a visual collation method is preferred. Overall, the researcher contends that the supposition outlined above is proven, and she concludes the research by suggesting the implications of these findings. In particular she offers a ‘Framework for Understanding and Action’ which is deemed to be relevant to both practitioners and future researchers.

A configuration framework of manufacturing strategy paradigm in state owned enterprises within China's petrochemical industry:building context-embedded configurations for the paradigm of strategic manufacturing management from exploratory case studies

The role of the production system as a key determinant of competitive performance of business operations- has long been the subject of industrial organization research, even predating the .explicit conceptua1isation of manufacturing, strategy in the literature. Particular emergent production issues such as the globalisation of production, global supply chain management, management of integrated manufacturing and a growing e~busjness environment are expected to critically influence the overall competitive performance and therefore the strategic success of the organization. More than ever, there is a critical need to configure and improve production system and operations competence in a strategic way so as to contribute to the long-term competitiveness of the organization. In order to operate competitively and profitably, manufacturing companies, no matter how well managed, all need a long-term 'strategic direction' for the development of operations competence in order to consistently produce more market value with less cost towards a leadership position. As to the long-term competitiveness, it is more important to establish a dynamic 'strategic perspective' for continuous operational improvements in pursuit of this direction, as well as ongoing reviews of the direction in relation to the overall operating context. However, it also clear that the 'existing paradigm of manufacturing strategy development' is incapable of adequately responding to the increasing complexities and variations of contemporary business operations. This has been factually reflected as many manufacturing companies are finding that methodologies advocated in the existing paradigm for developing manufacturing strategy have very limited scale and scope for contextual contingency in empirical application. More importantly, there has also emerged a deficiency in the multidimensional and integrative profile from a theoretical perspective when operationalising the underlying concept of strategic manufacturing management established in the literature. The point of departure for this study was a recognition of such contextual and unitary limitations in the existing paradigm of manufacturing strategy development when applied to contemporary industrial organizations in general, and Chinese State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) in particular. As China gradually becomes integrated into the world economy, the relevance of Western management theory and its paradigm becomes a practical matter as much as a theoretical issue. Since China markedly differs from Western countries in terms of culture, society, and political and economic systems, it presents promising grounds to test and refine existing management theories and paradigms with greater contextual contingency and wider theoretical perspective. Under China's ongoing programmes of SOE reform, there has been an increased recognition that strategy development is the very essence of the management task for managers of manufacturing companies in the same way as it is for their counterparts in Western economies. However, the Western paradigm often displays a rather naive and unitary perspective of the nature of strategic management decision-making, one which largely overlooks context-embedded factors and social/political influences on the development of manufacturing strategy. This thesis studies the successful experiences of developing manufacturing strategy from five high-performing large-scale SOEs within China’s petrochemical industry. China’s petrochemical industry constitutes a basic heavy industrial sector, which has always been a strategic focus for reform and development by the Chinese government. Using a confirmation approach, the study has focused on exploring and conceptualising the empirical paradigm of manufacturing strategy development practiced by management. That is examining the ‘empirical specifics’ and surfacing the ‘managerial perceptions’ of content configuration, context of consideration, and process organization for developing a manufacturing strategy during the practice. The research investigation adopts a qualitative exploratory case study methodology with a semi-structural front-end research design. Data collection follows a longitudinal and multiple-case design and triangulates case evidence from sources including qualitative interviews, direct observation, and a search of documentations and archival records. Data analysis follows an investigative progression from a within-case preliminary interpretation of facts to a cross-case search for patterns through theoretical comparison and analytical generalization. The underlying conceptions in both the literature of manufacturing strategy and related studies in business strategy were used to develop theoretical framework and analytical templates applied during data collection and analysis. The thesis makes both empirical and theoretical contributions to our understanding of 'contemporary management paradigm of manufacturing strategy development'. First, it provides a valuable contextual contingency of the 'subject' using the business setting of China's SOEs in petrochemical industry. This has been unpacked into empirical configurations developed for its context of consideration, its content and process respectively. Of special note, a lean paradigm of business operations and production management discovered at case companies has significant implications as an emerging alternative for high-volume capital intensive state manufacturing in China. Second, it provides a multidimensional and integrative theoretical profile of the 'subject' based upon managerial perspectives conceptualised at case companies when operationalising manufacturing strategy. This has been unpacked into conceptual frameworks developed for its context of consideration, its content constructs, and its process patterns respectively. Notably, a synergies perspective towards the operating context, competitive priorities and competence development of business operations and production management has significant implications for implementing a lean manufacturing paradigm. As a whole, in so doing, the thesis established a theoretical platform for future refinement and development of context-specific methodologies for developing manufacturing strategy.

Development of multiphase and multiscale mathematical models for thermal spray process

High velocity oxyfuel (HVOF) thermal spraying is one of the most significant developments in the thermal spray industry since the development of the original plasma spray technique. The first investigation deals with the combustion and discrete particle models within the general purpose commercial CFD code FLUENT to solve the combustion of kerosene and couple the motion of fuel droplets with the gas flow dynamics in a Lagrangian fashion. The effects of liquid fuel droplets on the thermodynamics of the combusting gas flow are examined thoroughly showing that combustion process of kerosene is independent on the initial fuel droplet sizes. The second analysis copes with the full water cooling numerical model, which can assist on thermal performance optimisation or to determine the best method for heat removal without the cost of building physical prototypes. The numerical results indicate that the water flow rate and direction has noticeable influence on the cooling efficiency but no noticeable effect on the gas flow dynamics within the thermal spraying gun. The third investigation deals with the development and implementation of discrete phase particle models. The results indicate that most powder particles are not melted upon hitting the substrate to be coated. The oxidation model confirms that HVOF guns can produce metallic coating with low oxidation within the typical standing-off distance about 30cm. Physical properties such as porosity, microstructure, surface roughness and adhesion strength of coatings produced by droplet deposition in a thermal spray process are determined to a large extent by the dynamics of deformation and solidification of the particles impinging on the substrate. Therefore, is one of the objectives of this study to present a complete numerical model of droplet impact and solidification. The modelling results show that solidification of droplets is significantly affected by the thermal contact resistance/substrate surface roughness.

The mathematical modelling of the environmental performance of buildings as an aid in the design process

This thesis is a theoretical study of the accuracy and usability of models that attempt to represent the environmental control system of buildings in order to improve environmental design. These models have evolved from crude representations of a building and its environment through to an accurate representation of the dynamic characteristics of the environmental stimuli on buildings. Each generation of models has had its own particular influence on built form. This thesis analyses the theory, structure and data of such models in terms of their accuracy of simulation and therefore their validity in influencing built form. The models are also analysed in terms of their compatability with the design process and hence their ability to aid designers. The conclusions are that such models are unlikely to improve environmental performance since: a the models can only be applied to a limited number of building types, b they can only be applied to a restricted number of the characteristics of a design, c they can only be employed after many major environmental decisions have been made, d the data used in models is inadequate and unrepresentative, e models do not account for occupant interaction in environmental control. It is argued that further improvements in the accuracy of simulation of environmental control will not significantly improve environmental design. This is based on the premise that strategic environmental decisions are made at the conceptual stages of design whereas models influence the detailed stages of design. It is hypothesised that if models are to improve environmental design it must be through the analysis of building typologies which provides a method of feedback between models and the conceptual stages of design. Field studies are presented to describe a method by which typologies can be analysed and a theoretical framework is described which provides a basis for further research into the implications of the morphology of buildings on environmental design.

A review of the information-gathering process for the provision of medicines for self-medication via community pharmacies in developing countries

Background: Currently, no review has been completed regarding the information-gathering process for the provision of medicines for self-medication in community pharmacies in developing countries. Objective: To review the rate of information gathering and the types of information gathered when patients present for self-medication requests. Methods: Six databases were searched for studies that described the rate of information gathering and/or the types of information gathered in the provision of medicines for self-medication in community pharmacies in developing countries. The types of information reported were classified as: signs and symptoms, patient identity, action taken, medications, medical history, and others. Results: Twenty-two studies met the inclusion criteria. Variations in the study populations, types of scenarios, research methods, and data reporting were observed. The reported rate of information gathering varied from 18% to 97%, depending on the research methods used. Information on signs and symptoms and patient identity was more frequently reported to be gathered compared with information on action taken, medications, and medical history. Conclusion: Evidence showed that the information-gathering process for the provision of medicines for self-medication via community pharmacies in developing countries is inconsistent. There is a need to determine the barriers to appropriate information-gathering practice as well as to develop strategies to implement effective information-gathering processes. It is also recommended that international and national pharmacy organizations, including pharmacy academics and pharmacy researchers, develop a consensus on the types of information that should be reported in the original studies. This will facilitate comparison across studies so that areas that need improvement can be identified. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.

Building belief in organizational learning: the role of organizational learning efficacy

There appears to be a missing dimension in OL literature to embrace the collective experience of emotion, both within groups and communities and also across the organization as a whole. The concept of OL efficacy- as a stimulus offering energy and direction for learning - remains unexplored. This research involved engaging with a company we have called ‘Electroco’ in depth to create a rich and nuanced representation of OL and members’ perceptions of OL over an extended time-frame (five years). We drew upon grounded theory research methodology (Locke, 2001), to elicit feedback from the organization, which was then used to inform future research plans and/ or refine emerging ideas. The concept of OL efficacy gradually emerged as a factor to be considered when exploring the relationship between individual learning and OL. . Bearing in mind Bandura’s (1982) conceptualization of self-efficacy (linked with mastery, modelling, verbal persuasion and emotional arousal), we developed a coding strategy encompassing these four factors as conceptualized at the organizational level. We added a fifth factor: ‘control of OL.’ We focused on feelings across the organization and the extent of consensus or otherwise around these five attributes. The construct has potential significance for how people are managed in many ways. Not only is OL efficacy is difficult for competitors to copy (arising as it does from the collective experience of working within a specific context); the self-efficacy concept suggests that success can be engineered with ‘small wins’ to reinforce mastery perceptions. Leaders can signal the importance of interaction with the external context, and encourage reflection on the strategies adopted by competitors or benchmark organizations (modelling). The theory also underlines the key role managers may play in persuading others about their organization’s propensity to learn (by focusing on success stories, for example). Research is set to continue within other sectors, including the high-performance financial service sector as well as the health-care technology sector.

A simultaneous examination of the effects of salesperson relationship-building activities and marketing activities on retail buyers' purchase decisions

Firms’ contemporary selling practices often not only demand that salespeople meet sales quotas, but also that they build strong, profitable relationships with customers. Given the belief that relationship-building activities can develop closer customer ties and improve sales performance, scholars have increasingly studied salesperson behaviors aimed at nurturing buyer-salesperson relations. However, while previous sales research has investigated the effects of a number of relational activities on performance outcomes in isolation, knowledge about their effectiveness in comparison to other important performance drivers is virtually absent. The present study provides some first theoretical and empirical insights into this research gap by simultaneously examining the role of specific salesperson relationship-building activities, and product-focused variables, in retail buyers’ new product purchase decisions. Following an extensive literature review, a two-part qualitative field study was conducted to explore salesperson relationship-building activities that are regarded as important by retail buyers. Two key relational behaviors were suggested by the customer-centric and retail industry-specific data; salesperson consultation (communication-based) and salesperson helping behavior (action-based). Drawing on this as well as extant literature, a conceptual framework was developed concerning the influences of these relationship-building activities and other product-focused factors on retail buyers’ new product acceptance. The study’s quantitative component contained a mail and web survey of U.S. retail buyers, resulting in a total dataset of 192 responses. After a comprehensive measure validation process, the theoretical hypotheses were tested using logistic regression analysis. Contrary to existing assertions, the results suggest that salesperson relationship-building activities themselves do not directly and/or indirectly influence purchase decisions, but instead can moderate the effects of product-focused determinants on retail buyers’ new product selections. Data on actual purchase decisions provide a high level of external validity to the findings. The study closes with a concluding discussion, including theoretical and managerial implications of the findings, limitations of the research, and directions for future inquiry.

Using the Business Process Execution Language for Managing Scientific Processes

This paper describes the use of the Business Process Execution Language for Web Services (BPEL4WS/BPEL) for managing scientific workflows. This work is result of our attempt to adopt Service Oriented Architecture in order to perform Web services – based simulation of metal vapor lasers. Scientific workflows can be more demanding in their requirements than business processes. In the context of addressing these requirements, the features of the BPEL4WS specification are discussed, which is widely regarded as the de-facto standard for orchestrating Web services for business workflows. A typical use case of calculation the electric field potential and intensity distributions is discussed as an example of building a BPEL process to perform distributed simulation constructed by loosely-coupled services.

Conceptual Building Information Modelling Framework for Whole‐house Refurbishment based on LCC and LCA

The UK government aims at achieving 80% CO2 emission reduction by 2050 which requires collective efforts across all the UK industry sectors. In particular, the housing sector has a large potential to contribute to achieving the aim because the housing sector alone accounts for 27% of the total UK CO2 emission, and furthermore, 87% of the housing which is responsible for current 27% CO2 emission will still stand in 2050. Therefore, it is essential to improve energy efficiency of existing housing stock built with low energy efficiency standard. In order for this, a whole‐house needs to be refurbished in a sustainable way by considering the life time financial and environmental impacts of a refurbished house. However, the current refurbishment process seems to be challenging to generate a financially and environmentally affordable refurbishment solution due to the highly fragmented nature of refurbishment practice and a lack of knowledge and skills about whole‐house refurbishment in the construction industry. In order to generate an affordable refurbishment solution, diverse information regarding costs and environmental impacts of refurbishment measures and materials should be collected and integrated in right sequences throughout the refurbishment project life cycle among key project stakeholders. Consequently, various researchers increasingly study a way of utilizing Building Information Modelling (BIM) to tackle current problems in the construction industry because BIM can support construction professionals to manage construction projects in a collaborative manner by integrating diverse information, and to determine the best refurbishment solution among various alternatives by calculating the life cycle costs and lifetime CO2 performance of a refurbishment solution. Despite the capability of BIM, the BIM adoption rate is low with 25% in the housing sector and it has been rarely studied about a way of using BIM for housing refurbishment projects. Therefore, this research aims to develop a BIM framework to formulate a financially and environmentally affordable whole‐house refurbishment solution based on the Life Cycle Costing (LCC) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methods simultaneously. In order to achieve the aim, a BIM feasibility study was conducted as a pilot study to examine whether BIM is suitable for housing refurbishment, and a BIM framework was developed based on the grounded theory because there was no precedent research. After the development of a BIM framework, this framework was examined by a hypothetical case study using BIM input data collected from questionnaire survey regarding homeowners’ preferences for housing refurbishment. Finally, validation of the BIM framework was conducted among academics and professionals by providing the BIM framework and a formulated refurbishment solution based on the LCC and LCA studies through the framework. As a result, BIM was identified as suitable for housing refurbishment as a management tool, and it is timely for developing the BIM framework. The BIM framework with seven project stages was developed to formulate an affordable refurbishment solution. Through the case study, the Building Regulation is identified as the most affordable energy efficiency standard which renders the best LCC and LCA results when it is applied for whole‐house refurbishment solution. In addition, the Fabric Energy Efficiency Standard (FEES) is recommended when customers are willing to adopt high energy standard, and the maximum 60% of CO2 emissions can be reduced through whole‐house fabric refurbishment with the FEES. Furthermore, limitations and challenges to fully utilize BIM framework for housing refurbishment were revealed such as a lack of BIM objects with proper cost and environmental information, limited interoperability between different BIM software and limited information of LCC and LCA datasets in BIM system. Finally, the BIM framework was validated as suitable for housing refurbishment projects, and reviewers commented that the framework can be more practical if a specific BIM library for housing refurbishment with proper LCC and LCA datasets is developed. This research is expected to provide a systematic way of formulating a refurbishment solution using BIM, and to become a basis for further research on BIM for the housing sector to resolve the current limitations and challenges. Future research should enhance the BIM framework by developing more detailed process map and develop BIM objects with proper LCC and LCA Information.

“This beer is off!”:building a dialogue game for servitization

Purpose: Development and evaluation of a prototype dialogue game for servitization is reported. Design/methodology/approach: This paper reports the design of the iServe game, from user centered design, through implementation using the Unity games engine to evaluation, a process which took 270 researcher hours. Findings: No relationship was found between either age or gaming experience and usability. Participants who identified themselves as non-experts in servitization recognized the potential of the game to teach servitization concepts to other novice learners. Originality/value: The potential of business games for education and executive development has been recognized but factors, including high development cost, inhibit their uptake. Games engines offer a potential solution.

Use of Start Pages for Building a Mashup Personal Learning Environment to Support Self-Organized Learners

The paper explores the functionalities of eight start pages and considers their usefulness when used as a mashable platform for deployment of personal learning environments (PLE) for self-organized learners. The Web 2.0 effects and eLearning 2.0 strategies are examined from the point of view of how they influence the methods of gathering and capturing data, information and knowledge, and the learning process. Mashup technology is studied in order to see what kind of components can be used in PLE realization. A model of a PLE for self-organized learners is developed and it is used to prototype a personal learning and research environment in the start pages Netvibes, Pageflakes and iGoogle.

Building democratic institutions in Mexico

The purpose of this study is to explore the process of building democratic institutions in Mexico, to examine how political parties shape the process of democratization, and how this process determines the degree of party system institutionalization.^ The appearance of competitive politics brought new challenges and opportunities to parties in Mexico. The aim was to identify how the broader political and economic environment has challenged Mexico's political party system, and specifically the transformation of Mexico's political party system.^ This research illustrates the logic of the deductive model, beginning with general, theoretical expectations about democratization and the economic reform. The empirical data were analyzed to determine whether the deductive expectations were supported by empirical reality. This study offers a comprehensive analysis that conciliates the 'political opening' that has produced favorable conditions for democratization and social integration, and the 'economic opening' that has counteracted since it generated social exclusionary processes. ^

Building better relationships workshop: An intervention fostering identity formation and interpersonal development in middle adolescents

The aim of this study was to further knowledge development concerning the formation of a sense of identity and intimacy. This study drew on the growing recognition by many researchers in the psychosocial development field of the need to target interventions at the interface of the development of identity and intimacy. The specific aim of the study was to address the question of whether it would be possible to develop intervention procedures for fostering identity and intimacy exploration and development. Using both qualitative and quantitative measurements, the results appeared to clearly support an affirmative answer to this question. A total of sixty-three middle adolescent students from an urban, public high school participated in this study. Twenty-nine participants in the treatment group and 34 participants in the comparison group were pre- and post tested on measures of identity and intimacy. Participants in this study consisted of multiethnic, urban youth that presented themselves for relationship counseling. Repeated measures analysis of variance's (RMANOVA's), used to evaluate the impact of the intervention on the quantitative measures of identity and intimacy exploration, clearly supported the efficacy of the intervention. In addition, the findings also provided tentative support for the view that the increase in exploration that results from entering a period of active exploration is associated with a “loosening” of commitment. Finally, the findings of this study also contributed to the empirical knowledge-base about procedures for intervening with respect to the process of intimacy development. More specifically, both the qualitative and quantitative findings of this study began to shed some light on the potential impact of exploration for interpersonal insight as that as a process for fostering intimacy development. ^