Iowa’s Bridge and Highway Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Pilot, HEPN-707, 2015

The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) is responsible for approximately 4,100 bridges and structures that are a part of the state’s primary highway system, which includes the Interstate, US, and Iowa highway routes. A pilot study was conducted for six bridges in two Iowa river basins—the Cedar River Basin and the South Skunk River Basin—to develop a methodology to evaluate their vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather. The six bridges had been either closed or severely stressed by record streamflow within the past seven years. An innovative methodology was developed to generate streamflow scenarios given climate change projections. The methodology selected appropriate rainfall projection data to feed into a streamflow model that generated continuous peak annual streamflow series for 1960 through 2100, which were used as input to PeakFQ to estimate return intervals for floods. The methodology evaluated the plausibility of rainfall projections and credibility of streamflow simulation while remaining consistent with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) protocol for estimating the return interval for floods. The results were conveyed in an innovative graph that combined historical and scenario-based design metrics for use in bridge vulnerability analysis and engineering design. The pilot results determined the annual peak streamflow response to climate change likely will be basin-size dependent, four of the six pilot study bridges would be exposed to increased frequency of extreme streamflow and would have higher frequency of overtopping, the proposed design for replacing the Interstate 35 bridges over the South Skunk River south of Ames, Iowa is resilient to climate change, and some Iowa DOT bridge design policies could be reviewed to consider incorporating climate change information.

Evaluation of Long-Term Field Performance of Cold In-Place Recycled Roads: Field and Laboratory Testing, TR-502, 2007

Cold in-place recycling (CIR) has become an attractive method for rehabilitating asphalt roads that have good subgrade support and are suffering distress related to non-structural aging and cracking of the pavement layer. Although CIR is widely used, its use could be expanded if its performance were more predictable. Transportation officials have observed roads that were recycled under similar circumstances perform very differently for no clear reason. Moreover, a rational mix design has not yet been developed, design assumptions regarding the structural support of the CIR layer remain empirical and conservative, and there is no clear understanding of the cause-effect relationships between the choices made during the design/construction process and the resulting performance. The objective of this project is to investigate these relationships, especially concerning the age of the recycled pavement, cumulative traffic volume, support conditions, aged engineering properties of the CIR materials, and road performance. Twenty-four CIR asphalt roads constructed in Iowa from 1986 to 2004 were studied: 18 were selected from a sample of roads studied in a previous research project (HR-392), and 6 were selected from newer CIR projects constructed after 1999. This report describes the results of comprehensive field and laboratory testing for these CIR asphalt roads. The results indicate that the modulus of the CIR layer and the air voids of the CIR asphalt binder were the most important factors affecting CIR pavement performance for high-traffic roads. For low-traffic roads, the wet indirect tensile strength significantly affected pavement performance. The results of this research can help identify changes that should be made with regard to design, material selection, and construction in order to improve the performance and cost-effectiveness of future recycled roads.

Evaluation of Long-Term Field Performance of Cold In-Place Recycled Roads: Summary Report, TR-502, 2007

Cold in-place recycling (CIR) has become an attractive method for rehabilitating asphalt roads that have good subgrade support and are suffering distress related to non-structural aging and cracking of the pavement layer. Although CIR is widely used, its use could be expanded if its performance were more predictable. Transportation officials have observed roads that were recycled under similar circumstances perform very differently for no clear reason. Moreover, a rational mix design has not yet been developed, design assumptions regarding the structural support of the CIR layer remain empirical and conservative, and there is no clear understanding of the cause-effect relationships between the choices made during the design/construction process and the resulting performance. The objective of this project is to investigate these relationships, especially concerning the age of the recycled pavement, cumulative traffic volume, support conditions, aged engineering properties of the CIR materials, and road performance. Twenty-four CIR asphalt roads constructed in Iowa from 1986 to 2004 were studied: 18 were selected from a sample of roads studied in a previous research project (HR-392), and 6 were selected from newer CIR projects constructed after 1999. This report summarizes the results of a comprehensive program of field distress surveys, field testing, and laboratory testing for these CIR asphalt roads. The results of this research can help identify changes that should be made with regard to design, material selection, and construction in order to lengthen the time between rehabilitation cycles and improve the performance and cost-effectiveness of future recycled roads.

Manual of Laboratory Mix Design Procedure for Cold In-Place Recycling using Foamed Asphalt (CIR-foam), TR-474, 2007

The objective is to determine the optimum percentage of water needed to produce the best foam properties for a given asphalt binder. The optimum water content is determined by achieving the maximum expansion ratio and half-life of the foamed asphalt. Expansion ratio is defined as the maximum volume over its original volume and half-life is defined as the time in seconds for foam to become a half of its maximum volume.

Examination of Curing Criteria for Cold In-Place Recycling, TR-553, 2008

Cold In-Place Recycling (CIR) has been used widely in rehabilitating the rural highways because it improves a long-term pavement performance. A CIR layer is normally covered by a hot mix asphalt (HMA) overlay in order to protect it from water ingress and traffic abrasion and obtain the required pavement structure and texture. Curing is the term currently used for the period of time that a CIR layer should remain exposed to drying conditions before an HMA overlay is placed. The industry standard for curing time is 10 days to 14 days or a maximum moisture content of 1.5 percent, which appear to be very conservative. When the exposed CIR layer is required to carry traffic for many weeks before the wearing surface is placed, it increases the risk of a premature failure in both CIR layer and overlay. This study was performed to explore technically sound ways to identify minimum in-place CIR properties necessary to permit placement of the HMA overlay. To represent the curing process of CIR pavement in the field construction, three different laboratory curing procedures were examined: 1) uncovered, 2) semi-covered and 3) covered specimens. The indirect tensile strength of specimens in all three curing conditions did not increase during an early stage of curing but increased during a later stage of curing usually when the moisture content falls below 1.5%. Dynamic modulus and flow number increased as curing time increased and moisture contents decreased. For the same curing time, CIR-foam specimens exhibited the higher tensile strength and less moisture content than CIR-emulsion. The laboratory test results concluded that the method of curing temperature and length of the curing period significantly affect the properties of the CIR mixtures. The moisture loss index was developed to predict the moisture condition in the field and, in the future, this index be calibrated with the measurements of temperature and moisture of a CIR layer in the field.

Examination of Curing Criteria for Cold In-Place Recycling Phase 2: Measuring Temperature, Moisture, Deflection and Distress from CIR Test Section, TR-590, 2009

The previous research performed laboratory experiments to measure the impacts of the curing on the indirect tensile strength of both CIR-foam and CIR-emulsion mixtures. However, a fundamental question was raised during the previous research regarding a relationship between the field moisture content and the laboratory moisture content. Therefore, during this research, both temperature and moisture conditions were measured in the field by embedding the sensors at a midpoint and a bottom of the CIR layer. The main objectives of the research are to: (1) measure the moisture levels throughout a CIR layer and (2) develop a moisture loss index to determine the optimum curing time of CIR layer before HMA overlay. To develop a set of moisture loss indices, the moisture contents and temperatures of CIR-foam and CIR-emulsion layers were monitored for five months. Based on the limited field experiment, the following conclusions are derived: 1. The moisture content of the CIR layer can be monitored accurately using the capacitance type moisture sensor. 2. The moisture loss index for CIR layers is a viable tool in determining the optimum timing for an overlay without measuring actual moisture contents. 3. The modulus back-calculated based on the deflection measured by FWD seemed to be in a good agreement with the stiffness measured by geo-gauge. 4. The geo-gauge should be considered for measuring the stiffness of CIR layer that can be used to determine the timing of an overlay. 5. The stiffness of CIR-foam layer increased as a curing time increased and it seemed to be more influenced by a temperature than moisture content. The developed sets of moisture loss indices based on the field measurements will help pavement engineers determine an optimum timing of an overlay without continually measuring moisture conditions in the field using a nuclear gauge.

Examination of Curing Criteria for Cold In-Place Recycling (Phase 3: Calibration of Moisture Loss Indices and Development of Stiffness Gain Model), TR-609, 2011

In the previous study, moisture loss indices were developed based on the field measurements from one CIR-foam and one CIR-emulsion construction sites. To calibrate these moisture loss indices, additional CIR construction sites were monitored using embedded moisture and temperature sensors. In addition, to determine the optimum timing of an HMA overlay on the CIR layer, the potential of using the stiffness of CIR layer measured by geo-gauge instead of the moisture measurement by a nuclear gauge was explored. Based on the monitoring the moisture and stiffness from seven CIR project sites, the following conclusions are derived: 1. In some cases, the in-situ stiffness remained constant and, in other cases, despite some rainfalls, stiffness of the CIR layers steadily increased during the curing time. 2. The stiffness measured by geo-gauge was affected by a significant amount of rainfall. 3. The moisture indices developed for CIR sites can be used for predicting moisture level in a typical CIR project. The initial moisture content and temperature were the most significant factors in predicting the future moisture content in the CIR layer. 4. The stiffness of a CIR layer is an extremely useful tool for contractors to use for timing their HMA overlay. To determine the optimal timing of an HMA overlay, it is recommended that the moisture loss index should be used in conjunction with the stiffness of the CIR layer.

Field Evaluation of Cold In-Place Recycling of Asphalt Concrete, HR-303, Construction Report, 1990

There are still many vintage portland cement concrete (PCC) pavements, 18 ft wide (5.4 m), dating back to pre-World War II era in use today. Successive overlays have been placed to cover joints and to improve rideability. The average thickness of the existing asphalt cement concrete (ACC) along route E66 in Tama County, Iowa, was 6.13 in. (15.6 cm). The rehabilitation strategy called for widening the base using the top 3 in. (7.6 cm) of the existing ACC by a recycling process involving cold milling and mixing with additional emulsion/rejuvenator. The material was then placed into a widening trench and compacted to match the level of the milled surface. This project was undertaken to develop a rehabilitation methodology to widen these older pavements economically and to have a finished surface capable of carrying traffic with little or no additional work.

Rice yield estimation based on weather conditions and on technological level of production systems in Brazil

The objective of this work was to evaluate an estimation system for rice yield in Brazil, based on simple agrometeorological models and on the technological level of production systems. This estimation system incorporates the conceptual basis proposed by Doorenbos & Kassam for potential and attainable yields with empirical adjusts for maximum yield and crop sensitivity to water deficit, considering five categories of rice yield. Rice yield was estimated from 2000/2001 to 2007/2008, and compared to IBGE yield data. Regression analyses between model estimates and data from IBGE surveys resulted in significant coefficients of determination, with less dispersion in the South than in the North and Northeast regions of the country. Index of model efficiency (E1') ranged from 0.01 in the lower yield classes to 0.45 in higher ones, and mean absolute error ranged from 58 to 250 kg ha‑1, respectively.

Fatigue Analysis of Welded Cruciform Joints with Cold Laps

Työssä on tutkittu vetojännityskuormituksen alaisena olevien hitsattujen kuormaa kantamattomien X-liitosten hitsin paikallisen geometrian variaation vaikutusta väsymislujuuteen. Muuttujina olivat reunan pyöristyssäde, kylmäjuoksun suuruus ja kylkikulma. Geometristen muuttujien parametrinen riippuvuussuhde on analysoitu usealla elementtimallilla. Väsymistarkastelu on suoritettu käyttämällä lineaaris-elastista murtumismekaniikkaa (LEFM) tasovenymätilassa ja materiaalina terästä. Särönkasvun suunnan ennustamisessaon käytetty maksimipääjännityskriteeriä sekä jännitysintensiteettikertoimet on määritetty J-integraalilla. Särön ydintymisvaihetta ei ole otettu huomioon. Rakenteen on oletettu olevan hitsatussa tilassa ja jännitysheilahdus on kokonaan tehollinen. Särön kasvunopeuden ennustamiseen on käytetty Paris'n lakia. Väsymislujuustulokset on esitetty karakteristisina väsymisluokkina (FAT) ja sovitettu parametriseksi yhtälöksi. Lopuksi väsymisanalyysin ennustamia tuloksia on verrattu saatavilla oleviin väsytystestituloksiin.

Population genetics of Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) in the Jura and the Pyrenees: a non-invasive approach to avian conservation genetics

RÉSUMÉ Le Grand tétras est un galliforme de montagne apparenté au faisan et au tétras lyre. Il est distribué de manière continue à travers la toundra et les montagnes de moyenne altitude en Europe de l'ouest. Toutefois, les populations d'Europe de l'ouest ont subi un déclin constant au cours des derniers siècles. Les causes de ce déclin sont probablement liées à l'activité humaine, telle .que l'élevage ou le tourisme, qui ont engendré une modification et une fragmentation de l'habitat de l'espèce. Malheureusement, les populations soumises à de forts déclins démographiques peuvent subir des effets génétiques (augmentation de la consanguinité et perte de diversité génétique) pouvant diminuer leur potentiel de reproduction et conduire irrémédiablement à l'extinction. Cette thèse présente les analyses conduites dans le but d'estimer l'impact du déclin démographique des populations de Grand tétras sur l'étendue et la distribution de leur variabilité génétique dans le Jura et dans les Pyrénées. Du fait de la législation locale protégeant les tétraonidés en général, mais également en raison de la biologie très cryptique du Grand tétras, l'ensemble des analyses de cette étude a été réalisé à partir de matériel génétique extrait des fientes (ou échantillonnage génétique non invasif). Dans la première partie de l'étude, je détaille les protocoles d'extraction. d'ADN et d'amplification par PCR modifiés à partir des protocoles classiques utilisant des échantillons conventionnels, riches en ADN. L'utilisation d'ADN fécal impose des contraintes dues à la mauvaise qualité et à la faible quantité du matériel génétique à disposition dans les fientes. Ces contraintes ont pu être partiellement contournées en réalisant des répétitions multiples du génotypage afin d'obtenir un degré de fiabilité suffisante. J'ai également analysé les causes de la dégradation de l'ADN dans les excréments. Parmi les causes les plus communes, telles que l'activité bactérienne, l'hydrolyse spontanée et la dégradation enzymatique par les DNases libres, c'est ce dernier facteur qui apparaît comme étant la cause majeure et la plus rapide responsable de la dégradation de la qualité des échantillons. La rapidité de l'action enzymatique suggère que les plans d'échantillonnages de excréments sur le terrain pourraient être optimisés en les réalisant dans des conditions climatiques froides et sèches, favorisant ainsi l'inhibition des DNases. La seconde partie de la thèse est une étude par simulation visant à déterminer la capacité du logiciel Structure à identifier les structures génétiques complexes et hiérarchiques fréquemment rencontrées dans les populations naturelles, et ce en utilisant différents types de marqueurs génétiques. Les troisième et quatrième parties de cette thèse décrivent le statut génétique des populations résiduelles du Jura et des Pyrénées à partir de l'analyse de 11 loci microsatellites. Nous n'avons pas pu mettre en évidence dans les deux populations des effets liés à la consanguinité ou à la réduction de la diversité génétique. De plus, la différenciation génétique entre les patches d'habitats favorables reste modérée et corrélée à la distance géographique, ce qui suggère que la dispersion d'individus entre les patches a été importante au moins pendant ces dernières générations. La comparaison des paramètres de la diversité génétique avec ceux d'autres populations de Grand tétras, ou d'autres espèces proches, indique que la population du Jura a retenu une proportion importante de sa diversité originelle. Ces résultats suggèrent que le déclin récent des populations a jusqu'ici eu un impact modéré sur les facteurs génétiques et que ces populations semblent avoir conservé le potentiel génétique nécessaire à leur survie à long terme. Finalement, en cinquième partie, l'analyse de l'apparentement entre les mâles qui participent à la parade sur les places de chant (leks) indique que ces derniers sont distribués en agrégats de manière non aléatoire, préférentiellement entre individus apparentés. De plus, la corrélation entre les distances génétique et géographique entre les leks est en accord avec les motifs d'isolement par la distance mis en évidence à d'autres niveaux hiérarchiques (entre patches d'habitat et populations), ainsi qu'avec les études menées sur d'autres espèces ayant choisi ce même système de reproduction. En conclusion, cette première étude basée uniquement sur de l'ADN nucléaire aviaire extrait à partir de fèces a fourni des informations nouvelles qui n'auraient pas pu être obtenues par une méthode d'observation sur le terrain ou d'échantillonnage génétique classique. Aucun oiseau n'a été dérangé ou capturé, et les résultats sont comparables à d'autres études concernant des espèces proches. Néanmoins, la taille de ces populations approche des niveaux au-dessous desquels la survie à long terme est fortement incertaine. La persistance de la diversité génétique pour les prochaines générations reste en conséquence liée à la survie des adultes et à une reprise du succès de la reproduction. ABSTRACT Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) is a large grouse that is continuously distributed across the tundra and the mid-high mountains of Western Europe. However, the populations in Western Europe have been showing a constant decline during the last decades. The causes for this decline are possibly related to human activities, such as cattle breeding and tourism that have both led to habitat modification and fragmentation. Unfortunately, populations that have undergone drastic demographic bottlenecks often go through genetic processes of inbreeding and loss of diversity that decrease their fitness and eventually lead to extinction. This thesis presents the investigations conducted to estimate the impact of the demographic decline of capercaillie populations on the extent and distribution of their genetic variability in the Jura and in the Pyrenees mountains. Because grouse are protected by wildlife legislation, and also because of the cryptic behaviour of capercaillie, all DNA material used in this study was extracted from faeces (non-invasive genetic sampling). In the first part of my thesis, I detail the protocols of DNA extraction and PCR amplification adapted from classical methods using conventional DNA-rich samples. The use of faecal DNA imposes specific constraints due to the low quantity and the highly degraded genetic material available. These constraints are partially overcome by performing multiple genotyping repetitions to obtain sufficient reliability. I also investigate the causes of DNA degradation in faeces. Among the main degraders, namely bacterial activity, spontaneous hydrolysis, and free-¬DNase activities, the latter was pointed out as the most important according to our experiments. These enzymes degrade DNA very rapidly, and, as a consequence, faeces sampling schemes must be planned preferably in cold and dry weather conditions, allowing for enzyme activity inhibition. The second part of the thesis is a simulation study aiming to assess the capacity of the software Structure to detect population structure in hierarchical models relevant to situations encountered in wild populations, using several genetic markers. The methods implemented in Structure appear efficient in detecting the highest hierarchical structure. The third and fourth parts of the thesis describe the population genetics status of the remaining Jura and Pyrenees populations using 11 microsatellite loci. In either of these populations, no inbreeding nor reduced genetic diversity was detected. Furthermore, the genetic differentiation between patches defined by habitat suitability remains moderate and correlated with geographical distance, suggesting that significant dispersion between patches was at work at least until the last generations. The comparison of diversity indicators with other species or other populations of capercaillie indicate that population in the Jura has retained a large part of its original genetic diversity. These results suggest that the recent decline has had so forth a moderate impact on• genetic factors and that these populations might have retained the potential for long term survival, if the decline is stopped. Finally, in the fifth part, the analysis of relatedness between males participating in the reproduction parade, or lek, indicate that capercaillie males, like has been shown for some other grouse species, gather on leks• among individuals that are more related than the average of the population. This pattern appears to be due to both population structure and kin-association. As a conclusion, this first study relying exclusively on nuclear DNA extracted from faeces has provided novel information that was not available through field observation or classical genetic sampling. No bird has been captured or disturbed, and the results are consistent with other studies of closely related species. However, the size of these populations is approaching thresholds below which long-term survival is unlikely. The persistence of genetic diversity for the forthcoming generations remains therefore bond to adult survival and to the increase of reproduction success.

Introducing massively parallel computers into operational weather forecasting

Numerical weather prediction and climate simulation have been among the computationally most demanding applications of high performance computing eversince they were started in the 1950's. Since the 1980's, the most powerful computers have featured an ever larger number of processors. By the early 2000's, this number is often several thousand. An operational weather model must use all these processors in a highly coordinated fashion. The critical resource in running such models is not computation, but the amount of necessary communication between the processors. The communication capacity of parallel computers often fallsfar short of their computational power. The articles in this thesis cover fourteen years of research into how to harness thousands of processors on a single weather forecast or climate simulation, so that the application can benefit as much as possible from the power of parallel high performance computers. The resultsattained in these articles have already been widely applied, so that currently most of the organizations that carry out global weather forecasting or climate simulation anywhere in the world use methods introduced in them. Some further studies extend parallelization opportunities into other parts of the weather forecasting environment, in particular to data assimilation of satellite observations.

Effect of humic substances and weather conditions on leaf biochemical changes of fertigated guava tree, during orchard establishment

In São Francisco Valley, Northeast Brazil, humic substances have been used by growers in fertigated fruit crops, due to its improvements on soil conditions and in plant nutrient uptake, metabolism and growth, reported from different growing places and crops. Nevertheless, little information about plant response to humic substance usage for local soil, weather and cropping system conditions is known. Hence, the metabolic response of guava tree during the orchard establishment to fertigation with humic substances and its correlation to the weather conditions were evaluated in Petrolina, State of Pernambuco. The treatments were manure application in soil combined with mineral fertilizers and humic substances applied through water of irrigation. The results showed that the fertigation treatments and plant age did not present conclusive effects in guava leaf contents of carbohydrates, proteins and amino acids. On the other side, the leaf contents of these compounds were influenced by the weather conditions.