dissertação A avaliação do grau de orientação para o mercado em micro e pequenas empresas comerciais e prestadoras de serviço

Dissertação apresentada ao Programa de Pós-Graduação em Administração da Universidade Municipal de São Caetano do Sul para a obtenção do título de Mestre em Administração.

EULAR Recommendations for Women's Health and the Management of Family Planning, Assisted Reproduction, Pregnancy and Menopause in Patients with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus and/or Antiphospholipid Syndrome

OBJECTIVES: Develop recommendations for women's health issues and family planning in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and/or antiphospholipid syndrome (APS). METHODS: Systematic review of evidence followed by modified Delphi method to compile questions, elicit expert opinions and reach consensus. RESULTS: Family planning should be discussed as early as possible after diagnosis. Most women can have successful pregnancies and measures can be taken to reduce the risks of adverse maternal or fetal outcomes. Risk stratification includes disease activity, autoantibody profile, previous vascular and pregnancy morbidity, hypertension and the use of drugs (emphasis on benefits from hydroxychloroquine and antiplatelets/anticoagulants). Hormonal contraception and menopause replacement therapy can be used in patients with stable/inactive disease and low risk of thrombosis. Fertility preservation with gonadotropin-releasing hormone analogues should be considered prior to the use of alkylating agents. Assisted reproduction techniques can be safely used in patients with stable/inactive disease; patients with positive antiphospholipid antibodies/APS should receive anticoagulation and/or low-dose aspirin. Assessment of disease activity, renal function and serological markers is important for diagnosing disease flares and monitoring for obstetrical adverse outcomes. Fetal monitoring includes Doppler ultrasonography and fetal biometry, particularly in the third trimester, to screen for placental insufficiency and small for gestational age fetuses. Screening for gynaecological malignancies is similar to the general population, with increased vigilance for cervical premalignant lesions if exposed to immunosuppressive drugs. Human papillomavirus immunisation can be used in women with stable/inactive disease. CONCLUSIONS: Recommendations for women's health issues in SLE and/or APS were developed using an evidence-based approach followed by expert consensus.

A long-term energy efficiency prediction model for the Brazilian automotive industry

According to law number 12.715/2012, Brazilian government instituted guidelines for a program named Inovar-Auto. In this context, energy efficiency is a survival requirement for Brazilian automotive industry from September 2016. As proposed by law, energy efficiency is not going to be calculated by models only. It is going to be calculated by the whole universe of new vehicles registered. In this scenario, the composition of vehicles sold in market will be a key factor on profits of each automaker. Energy efficiency and its consequences should be taken into consideration in all of its aspects. In this scenario, emerges the following question: which is the efficiency curve of one automaker for long term, allowing them to adequate to rules, keep balancing on investment in technologies, increasing energy efficiency without affecting competitiveness of product lineup? Among several variables to be considered, one can highlight the analysis of manufacturing costs, customer value perception and market share, which characterizes this problem as a multi-criteria decision-making. To tackle the energy efficiency problem required by legislation, this paper proposes a framework of multi-criteria decision-making. The proposed framework combines Delphi group and Analytic Hierarchy Process to identify suitable alternatives for automakers to incorporate in main Brazilian vehicle segments. A forecast model based on artificial neural networks was used to estimate vehicle sales demand to validate expected results. This approach is demonstrated with a real case study using public vehicles sales data of Brazilian automakers and public energy efficiency data.

Étude des besoins décisionnels des aînés atteints de la maladie d’Alzheimer et de leurs proches aidants pour favoriser la prise de décision partagée en soins de première ligne

L’objectif de cette étude était d’évaluer les besoins décisionnels et de prioriser cinq décisions difficiles et fréquentes des aînés atteints de la maladie d’Alzheimer (MA) et leurs proches pour développer un programme de formation axé sur la décision partagée combiné avec des outils d’aide à la décision. Un sondage électronique de type Delphi avec 33 experts a permis d’établir un consensus sur cinq décisions. Les résultats concernent la décision des proches de recourir à une intervention de soutien (sélectionné par 83% des experts), la décision de recourir à des interventions pour réduire l’agitation, l’agressivité et les symptômes psychotiques (79%), déterminer l’objectif des soins chez les aînés atteints de la MA au stade avancé (66%), arrêter ou non la conduite automobile (66%) et établir ou non un régime de protection (62%). L’identification de ces besoins décisionnels médicaux et psychosociaux pourra aiguiller différentes parties prenantes dans le développement d’interventions pour faciliter la prise de décision. Mots clés : maladie d’Alzheimer, proches aidants, soins de première ligne, décision partagée, analyse de besoins, méthode Delphi

Plan estratégico de gestión humana en STRACON GyM S.A.

El presente trabajo tiene como alcance la elaboración de un plan estratégico de recursos humanos para ser implementado en la empresa STRACON GyM durante el periodo comprendido entre los años 2015 y 2019. Como base metodológica no se contempla la recolección de muestras desde la perspectiva del enfoque cuantitativo, pues se carece de dichos elementos de medición para formular las hipótesis del planeamiento. En ese sentido, es conveniente utilizar la metodología cualitativa para entregar un documento de tipo consultoría que aborde una problemática inicial (necesidad de cumplir los objetivos estratégicos de la empresa) desde la gestión de personas, y que proponga, con suficiente base teórica, las estrategias de recursos humanos apropiadas para la consecución de las metas del negocio. Se complementará este enfoque utilizando el método Delphi, que permitirá predecir de manera sistemática los efectos de la implementación del plan de recursos humanos propuesto. De esta manera, los cuestionarios formulados a los expertos en identificación de las necesidades del negocio al interno de la organización, volverán a ser consultados por estos mismos para establecer una conceptualización firme sobre la problemática a abordar en la gestión de personas dentro de STRACON GyM, y de esa manera sustentar, sobre la base de los modelos teóricos consultados, las mejores propuestas que compondrán el plan referido. Para una mejor precisión conceptual, se utilizará el término Gestión Humana en lugar de Recursos Humanos, puesto que considera que las personas que contribuyen al logro de los éxitos empresariales no son meramente recursos y mucho menos gastos, sino seres humanos con talentos, a los que hay que dirigir en el ámbito laboral, de acuerdo con estrategias y tácticas de gestión de personas para aprovechar al máximo sus capacidades y desarrollar sus potencialidades, ya que son ellos los que generan y sostienen el valor en una organización.  

Anexos. Discernimiento: evolución del pensamiento crítico en la educación superior : el proyecto de la Universidad Icesi

Contiene: Anexo I Breve revisión de la literatura -- Anexo II Informe Delphi --Destrezas y subdestrezas intelectuales para el pensamiento crítico -- Descripciones de consenso – Anexo III Disposición al pensamiento crítico. Instrumento utilizado CCTDI -- Ficha técnica -- Anexo IV Valores y capacidades profesionales -- Universidad Icesi -- Anexo V Procesamiento de Cohortes -- Anexo VI Tratamiento estadístico de resultados.

Enfermeiros da Viatura Médica de Emergência e Reanimação: Que competências?

Em Portugal, embora já exista a recomendação de que parte dos enfermeiros perten-centes à equipa de enfermagem no meio pré-hospitalar deva ser especializada na pes-soa em situação crítica, e de já existir um Regulamento das Competências Específicas do Enfermeiro Especialista em Enfermagem em Pessoa em Situação Crítica, este abrange competências que não lhes são específicas e ignora algumas habilidades e conhecimentos subjacentes à sua atividade. Assim, e apesar da Ordem dos Enfermeiros reconhecer o enquadramento dos Enfermeiros na Emergência Pré-hospitalar como van-tajosa, as competências que lhes são reconhecidas, bem como os critérios de seleção dos enfermeiros integrados na Viatura Médica de Emergência e Reanimação são pouco claros e variáveis. Procurou-se desta forma delinear um estudo que fosse de encontro à necessidade de conhecer a especificidade das competências dos enfermeiros que exercem no meio pré-hospitalar, nomeadamente na Viatura Médica de Emergência e Reanimação. Para a realização deste estudo optou-se por uma abordagem à técnica de Delphi, tendo assim criado numa primeira fase uma lista de competências baseada na literatura cien-tífica existente sobre o tema; e numa segunda fase, foi submetida ao painel de peritos previamente selecionado. O painel foi constituído por 28 enfermeiros com experiência na VMER e com um papel de relevância profissional na Formação na área da emergên-cia e/ou na área da gestão/coordenação de equipas. Seguindo todos os passos reco-mendados para a realização do painel, no final da primeira ronda obteve-se um con-senso de 100% das competências. No entanto, face à necessidade de reformular duas competências, por sugestão dos peritos, houve necessidade de realizar uma segunda ronda. No final deste processo, obteve-se uma lista constituída por 77 competências específi-cas dos enfermeiros ao exercício da VMER, divididas em 6 Domínios: Responsabilidade Profissional, Ética e Legal, Melhoria da Qualidade, Gestão dos Cuidados, Desenvolvi-mento das Aprendizagens Profissionais, Domínio Técnico da Prestação de Cuidados à Pessoa em Situação Crítica e Domínio Técnico da Condução em Marcha de Emergên-cia.

Errores humanos autorreferenciados por los peatones del sistema vial de la ciudad de Bahía Blanca, Argentina: estudio descriptivo observacional

Introducción: los peatones representan el 22% del total mundial de fallecimientos por colisiones viales. Constituyen la población más vulnerable del sistema vial. Objetivo: describir los tipos de errores humanos autorreferenciados por los peatones que circularon en el sistema vial de la ciudad de Bahía Blanca durante el período septiembre del 2014 a abril del 2015. Metodología: estudio descriptivo observacional de corte transversal. Muestra por conveniencia. Se confeccionó una encuesta estructurada en base al Driver Behaviour Questionnaire en la versión traducida al español. Se validó mediante el método Delphi. Se analizó con software stadístico SPSS. Resultados: el 46,5% refiere no mirar a ambos lados de la calle antes de cruzar. El 22,3% refiere no ver cuando está saliendo un auto de un garaje y debe frenar bruscamente. El 32,2% refiere cruzar la calle hablando por teléfono celular y no darse cuenta si viene un vehículo. El 89,2% refiere cruzar a la vereda de enfrente por la mitad de la calle. El 69,7% refiere cruzar la calle aunque el semáforo peatonal esté en rojo. Conclusiones: las conductas que se observan en el estudio demuestran la inobservancia de las normas por parte de los peatones. Muchas de dichas conductas son condiciones que podrían generar una colisión con lesiones graves. El foco de la intervención debería orientarse al control más estricto de los peatones cuando circulan por el sistema vial.

Considering climate change in the development of marine protected areas

Marine ecosystems are facing a diverse range of threats, including climate change, prompting international efforts to safeguard marine biodiversity through the use of spatial management measures. Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) have been implemented as a conservation tool throughout the world, but their usefulness and effectiveness is strongly related to climate change. However, few MPA programmes have directly considered climate change in the design, management or monitoring of an MPA network. Under international obligations, EU, UK and national targets, Scotland has developed an MPA network that aims to protect marine biodiversity and contribute to the vision of a clean, healthy and productive marine environment. This is the first study to critically analyse the Scottish MPA process and highlight areas which may be improved upon in further iterations of the network in the context of climate change. Initially, a critical review of the Scottish MPA process considered how ecological principles for MPA network design were incorporated into the process, how stakeholder perceptions were considered and crucially what consideration was given to the influence of climate change on the eventual effectiveness of the network. The results indicated that to make a meaningful contribution to marine biodiversity protection for Europe the Scottish MPA network should: i) fully adopt best practice ecological principles ii) ensure effective protection and iii) explicitly consider climate change in the management, monitoring and future iterations of the network. However, this review also highlighted the difficulties of incorporating considerations of climate change into an already complex process. A series of international case studies from British Columbia, Canada; central California, USA; the Great Barrier Reef, Australia and the Hauraki Gulf, New Zealand, were then conducted to investigate perceptions of how climate change has been considered in the design, implementation, management and monitoring of MPAs. The key lessons from this study included: i) strictly protected marine reserves are considered essential for climate change resilience and will be necessary as scientific reference sites to understand climate change effects ii) adaptive management of MPA networks is important but hard to implement iii) strictly protected reserves managed as ecosystems are the best option for an uncertain future. This work provides new insights into the policy and practical challenges MPA managers face under climate change scenarios. Based on the Scottish and international studies, the need to facilitate clear communication between academics, policy makers and stakeholders was recognised in order to progress MPA policy delivery and to ensure decisions were jointly formed and acceptable. A Delphi technique was used to develop a series of recommendations for considering climate change in Scotland’s MPA process. The Delphi participant panel was selected for their knowledge of the Scottish MPA process and included stakeholders, policy makers and academics with expertise in MPA research. The results from the first round of the Delphi technique suggested that differing views of success would likely influence opinions regarding required management of MPAs, and in turn, the data requirements to support management action decisions. The second round of the Delphi technique explored this further and indicated that there was a fundamental dichotomy in panellists’ views of a successful MPA network depending upon whether they believed the MPAs should be strictly protected or allow for sustainable use. A third, focus group round of the Delphi Technique developed a feature-based management scenario matrix to aid in deciding upon management actions in light of changes occurring in the MPA network. This thesis highlights that if the Scottish MPA network is to fulfil objectives of conservation and restoration, the implications of climate change for the design, management and monitoring of the network must be considered. In particular, there needs to be a greater focus on: i) incorporating ecological principles that directly address climate change ii) effective protection that builds resilience of the marine and linked social environment iii) developing a focused, strong and adaptable monitoring framework iv) ensuring mechanisms for adaptive management.

Priorities for future intensive care research in the UK: results of a James Lind Alliance Priority Setting Partnership.

This James Lind Alliance (JLA) Priority Setting Partnership aimed to identify and prioritise unanswered questions about adult intensive care that are important to people who have been critically ill, their families, and the health professionals who care for them. Consensus techniques (modified Delphi and Nominal Group) were used to generate suggestions using online and postal surveys. Following verification and iterative editorial review, research topics were constructed from these suggestions. These topics were presented in a second online and postal survey for rating. A Nominal Group of 21 clinicians, patients and family representatives subsequently met to rank the most important research topics and produce a prioritised list. The project was coordinated by a representative Steering Group and independently overseen by the JLA. The initial survey and review of the literature generated over 1,300 suggestions. Preliminary editing and verification permitted us to encapsulate these suggestions within 151 research topics. Iterative review by members of the Steering Group produced 37 topic statements, subsequently rated by participants. Using the mode to determine importance, 19 topics were presented to the group from which a ‘top three’ intensive care research priorities were identified and a further nine topics were prioritised. By applying and adapting the JLA methodology to focus on an area of care rather than to a single disease, we have provided a means to ensure that patients, their families and professionals materially contribute to the prioritisation of intensive care research in the UK.

CIL 3.566 – Dedication for Q. Minucius Rufus

Squeeze, photograph and notes by A.E. Gordon

CIL 3.14203, 22 – Dedication of L. Aemilus Paulus

Photographs and notes by A.E. Gordon

CIL 3.314203, 23 – Dedication of M. Minucius Rufus

Squeeze, photograph and notes by A.E. Gordon

Mejora de los procesos de estimación de costos de software. Caso del sector de software de Barranquilla

El presente artículo es resultado de la investigación: “Diseño de un modelo para mejorar los procesos de estimación de costos para las empresas desarrolladoras de software”. Se presenta una revisión de la literatura a nivel internacional con el fin de identificar tendencias y métodos para realizar estimaciones de costos de software más exactas. Por medio del método predictivo Delphi, un conjunto de expertos pertenecientes al sector de software de Barranquilla clasificaron y valoraron según la probabilidad de ocurrencia cinco escenarios realistas de estimaciones. Se diseñó un experimento completamente aleatorio cuyos resultados apuntaron a dos escenarios estadísticamente similares de manera cualitativa, con lo que se construyó un modelo de análisis basado en tres agentes: Metodología, capacidad del equipo de trabajo y productos tecnológicos; cada uno con tres categorías de cumplimiento para lograr estimaciones más precisas

Proposta de uma matriz de decisão em energia hidrelétrica com o uso do método multicritério, para formulação de políticas públicas no estado do Paraná

Brazil is internationally acknowledged for its renewable sources, most notably, hydroelectric power plant projects which correspond to 65% of electricity production supply to the National Interconnected System. The main question behind this research is: what are the weights and the relative importance of the variables which have influence on the decision making process for the expansion of hydroelectric generation projects in Parana? The main objective is to propose a multi-criteria decision procedure, in association with water sources options that take into consideration the weight and relative importance of the alternatives having influence on the decision by enterprises in the generation of electricity in the state of Paraná. As far as the approach to the problem is concerned, this research can be classified as having mixed methodologies, applying Content Analysis, Delphi technique and the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Following Delphi methodology, a group of 21 was selected for data collection, all of those linked to Paranaense hydroelectricity market. And the main result was the construction of a decision tree in which it was possible to identify the importance and relative weight of the elements associated with the four dimensions of energy. In environmental dimension, the highest relative weight was placed on the loading capacity of Parana system; the economic dimension, the amortization of investment; in social dimension, the generation of direct work places and in institutional dimension, the availability of suitable sources of financing. Policy makers and business managers make their decisions based on specific criteria related to the organization segment, market information, economic and political behavior among other indicators that guide them in dealing with the typical tradeoffs of projects in hydropower area. The results obtained in the decision tree show that the economic bias is still the main factor in making investment decisions. However, environmental impacts on the State loading capacity, income generation, providing opportunities for direct as well as indirect jobs. And at an institutional level, the absence of funding sources show that the perception of experts is focused on other issues beyond the logic behind development per se. The order of priority of variables in this study indicates that in the current environment of uncertainty in the Brazilian economy as many variables must be analyzed and compared in order to optimize the scarce resources available to expand local development in relation to Paranaense water matrix.