Holocene climate, fire and vegetation dynamics at the treeline in the Northwestern Swiss Alps

Treelines are expected to rise to higher elevations with climate warming; the rate and extent however are still largely unknown. Here we present the first multi-proxy palaeoecological study from the treeline in the Northwestern Swiss Alps that covers the entire Holocene. We reconstructed climate, fire and vegetation dynamics at Iffigsee, an alpine lake at 2,065 m a.s.l., by using seismic sedimentary surveys, loss on ignition, visible spectrum reflectance spectroscopy, pollen, spore, macrofossil and charcoal analyses. Afforestation with Larix decidua and tree Betula (probably B. pendula) started at ~9,800 cal. b.p., more than 1,000 years later than at similar elevations in the Central and Southern Alps, indicating cooler temperatures and/or a high seasonality. Highest biomass production and forest position of ~2,100–2,300 m a.s.l. are inferred during the Holocene Thermal Maximum from 7,000 to 5,000 cal. b.p. With the onset of pastoralism and transhumance at 6,800–6,500 cal. b.p., human impact became an important factor in the vegetation dynamics at Iffigsee. This early evidence of pastoralism is documented by the presence of grazing indicators (pollen, spores), as well as a wealth of archaeological finds at the nearby mountain pass of Schnidejoch. Human and fire impact during the Neolithic and Bronze Ages led to the establishment of pastures and facilitated the expansion of Picea abies and Alnus viridis. We expect that in mountain areas with land abandonment, the treeline will react quickly to future climate warming by shifting to higher elevations, causing drastic changes in species distribution and composition as well as severe biodiversity losses.

Climate extremes and the carbon cycle

The terrestrial biosphere is a key component of the global carbon cycle and its carbon balance is strongly influenced by climate. Continuing environmental changes are thought to increase global terrestrial carbon uptake. But evidence is mounting that climate extremes such as droughts or storms can lead to a decrease in regional ecosystem carbon stocks and therefore have the potential to negate an expected increase in terrestrial carbon uptake. Here we explore the mechanisms and impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle, and propose a pathway to improve our understanding of present and future impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon budget.

Atmospheric Soluble Dust Records from a Tibetan Ice Core: Possible Climate Proxies and Teleconnection With the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

In autumn 2005, a joint expedition between the University of Maine and the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research recovered three ice cores from Guoqu Glacier (33 degrees 34'37.80 '' N, 91 degrees 10'35.3 '' E, 5720 m above sea level) on the northern side of Mt. Geladaindong, central Tibetan Plateau. Isotopes ( delta(18)O), major soluble ions (Na(+), K(+), Mg(2+), Ca(2+), Cl(-), NO(3)(-), SO(4)(2-)), and radionuclide (beta-activity) measurements from one of the cores revealed a 70-year record (1935-2005). Statistical analysis of major ion time series suggests that atmospheric soluble dust species dominate the chemical signature and that background dust levels conceal marine ion species deposition. The soluble dust time series have interspecies relations and common structure (empirical orthogonal function (EOF) 1), suggesting a similar soluble dust source or transport route. Annual and seasonal correlations between the EOF 1 time series and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis climate variables (1948-2004) suggest that the Mt. Geladaindong ice core record provides a proxy for local and regional surface pressure. An approximately threefold decrease of soluble dust concentrations in the middle to late 1970s, accompanied by regional increases in pressure and temperature and decreases in wind velocity, coincides with the major 1976-1977 shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) from a negative to a positive state. This is the first ice core evidence of a potential teleconnection between central Asian atmospheric soluble dust loading and the PDO. Analysis of temporally longer ice cores from Mt. Geladaindong may enhance understanding of the relationship between the PDO and central Asian atmospheric circulation and subsequent atmospheric soluble dust loading.

Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment

The Antarctic climate system varies on timescales from orbital, through millennial to sub-annual, and is closely coupled to other parts of the global climate system. We review these variations from the perspective of the geological and glaciological records and the recent historical period from which we have instrumental data (similar to the last 50 years). We consider their consequences for the biosphere, and show how the latest numerical models project changes into the future, taking into account human actions in the form of the release of greenhouse gases and chlorofluorocarbons into the atmosphere. In doing so, we provide an essential Southern Hemisphere companion to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment.

Early metacognitive abilities: The interplay of monitoring and control processes in 5- to 7-year-old children

The goal of the current investigation was to compare two monitoring processes (judgments of learning [JOLs] and confidence judgments [CJs]) and their corresponding control processes (allocation of study time and selection of answers to maximize accuracy, respectively) in 5- to 7-year-old children (N=101). Children learned the meaning of Japanese characters and provided JOLs after a study phase and CJs after a memory test. They were given the opportunity to control their learning in self-paced study phases, and to control their accuracy by placing correct answers into a treasure chest and incorrect answers into a trash can. All three age groups gave significantly higher CJs for correct compared to incorrect answers, with no age-related differences in the magnitude of this difference, suggesting robust metacognitive monitoring skills in children as young as 5. Furthermore, a link between JOLs and study time was found in the 6- and 7-year-olds, such that children spent more time studying items with low JOLs compared to items with high JOLs. Also, 6- and 7-year-olds but not 5-year-olds spent more time studying difficult items compared to easier items. Moreover, age-related improvements were found in children's use of CJs to guide their selection of answers: although children as young as 5 placed their most confident answers in the treasure chest and least confident answers in the trash can, this pattern was more robust in older children. Overall, results support the view that some metacognitive judgments may be acted upon with greater ease than others among young children.

Metacognitive monitoring and control in elementary school children: Their interrelations and their role for test performance

Contemporary models of self-regulated learning emphasize the role of distal motivational factors for student's achievement, on the one side, and the proximal role of metacognitive monitoring and control for learning and test outcomes, on the other side. In the present study, two larger samples of elementary school children (9- and 11-year-olds) were included and their mastery-oriented motivation, metacognitive monitoring and control skills were integrated into structural equation models testing and comparing the relative impact of these different constituents for self-regulated learning. For one, results indicate that the factorial structure of monitoring, control and mastery motivation was invariant across the two age groups. Of specific interest was the finding that there were age-dependent structural links between monitoring, control, and test performance (closer links in the older compared to the younger children), with high confidence yielding a direct and positive effect on test performance and a direct and negative effect on adequate control behavior in the achievement test. Mastery-oriented motivation was not found to be substantially associated with monitoring (confidence), control (detection and correction of errors), or test performance underlining the importance of proximal, metacognitive factors for test performance in elementary school children.

The impact of retrieval processes, age, general achievement level, and test scoring scheme for children's metacognitive monitoring and controlling

This multi-phase study examined the influence of retrieval processes on children’s metacognitive processes in relation to and in interaction with achievement level and age. First, N = 150 9/10- and 11/12-year old high and low achievers watched an educational film and predicted their test performance. Children then solved a cloze test regarding the film content including answerable and unanswerable items and gave confidence judgments to every answer. Finally, children withdrew answers that they believed to be incorrect. All children showed adequate metacognitive processes before and during test taking with 11/12- year-olds outperforming 9/10-year-olds when considering characteristics of on-going retrieval processes. As to the influence of achievement level, high compared to low achievers proved to be more accurate in their metacognitive monitoring and controlling. Results suggest that both cognitive resources (operationalized through achievement level) and mnemonic experience (assessed through age) fuel metacognitive development. Nevertheless, when facing higher demands regarding retrieval processes, experience seems to play the more important role.

Can you see me thinking (about my answers)? Using eye-tracking to illuminate developmental differences in monitoring and control skills and their relation to performance

This study focuses on relations between 7- and 9-year-old children’s and adults’ metacognitive monitoring and control processes. In addition to explicit confidence judgments (CJ), data for participants’ control behavior during learning and recall as well as implicit CJs were collected with an eye-tracking device (Tobii 1750). Results revealed developmental progression in both accuracy of implicit and explicit monitoring across age groups. In addition, efficiency of learning and recall strategies increases with age, as older participants allocate more fixation time to critical information and less time to peripheral or potentially interfering information. Correlational analyses, recall performance, metacognitive monitoring, and controlling indicate significant interrelations between all of these measures, with varying patterns of correlations within age groups. Results are discussed in regard to the intricate relationship between monitoring and recall and their relation to performance.

Promoting Local Innovations: A tool for adaptation to climate change and sustainable development in Mountains

Throughout their history mountain communities have had to adapt to changing environmental and socio-economic conditions. They have developed strategies and specialized knowledge to sustain their livelihoods in a context of adverse climatic events and constant change. As negotiations and discussions on climate change emphasize the critical need for locally relevant and community owned adaptation strategies, there is a need for new tools to capitalize on this local knowledge and endogenous potential for innovation. The toolkit Promoting Local Innovation (PLI) was designed by the Centre for Development and Environment (CDE) of the University of Bern, Switzerland, to facilitate a participatory social learning process which identifies locally available innovations that can be implemented for community development. It is based on interactive pedagogy and joint learning among different stakeholders in the local context. The tried-and-tested tool was developed in the Andean region in 2004, and then used in International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) climate change adaptation projects in Thailand, Burkina Faso, Senegal, and Chile. These experiences showed that PLI can be used to involve all relevant stakeholders in establishing strategies and actions needed for rural communities to adapt to climate change impacts, while building on local innovation potential and promoting local ownership

Viral load versus CD4⁺ monitoring and 5-year outcomes of antiretroviral therapy in HIV-positive children in Southern Africa: a cohort-based modelling study.

OBJECTIVES Many paediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in Southern Africa rely on CD4⁺ to monitor ART. We assessed the benefit of replacing CD4⁺ by viral load monitoring. DESIGN A mathematical modelling study. METHODS A simulation model of HIV progression over 5 years in children on ART, parameterized by data from seven South African cohorts. We simulated treatment programmes with 6-monthly CD4⁺ or 6- or 12-monthly viral load monitoring. We compared mortality, second-line ART use, immunological failure and time spent on failing ART. In further analyses, we varied the rate of virological failure, and assumed that the rate is higher with CD4⁺ than with viral load monitoring. RESULTS About 7% of children were predicted to die within 5 years, independent of the monitoring strategy. Compared with CD4⁺ monitoring, 12-monthly viral load monitoring reduced the 5-year risk of immunological failure from 1.6 to 1.0% and the mean time spent on failing ART from 6.6 to 3.6 months; 1% of children with CD4⁺ compared with 12% with viral load monitoring switched to second-line ART. Differences became larger when assuming higher rates of virological failure. When assuming higher virological failure rates with CD4⁺ than with viral load monitoring, up to 4.2% of children with CD4⁺ compared with 1.5% with viral load monitoring experienced immunological failure; the mean time spent on failing ART was 27.3 months with CD4⁺ monitoring and 6.0 months with viral load monitoring. Conclusion: Viral load monitoring did not affect 5-year mortality, but reduced time on failing ART, improved immunological response and increased switching to second-line ART.