Eliciting and encoding expert knowledge on variable selection into classical or Bayesian species distribution models

The quality of species distribution models (SDMs) relies to a large degree on the quality of the input data, from bioclimatic indices to environmental and habitat descriptors (Austin, 2002). Recent reviews of SDM techniques, have sought to optimize predictive performance e.g. Elith et al., 2006. In general SDMs employ one of three approaches to variable selection. The simplest approach relies on the expert to select the variables, as in environmental niche models Nix, 1986 or a generalized linear model without variable selection (Miller and Franklin, 2002). A second approach explicitly incorporates variable selection into model fitting, which allows examination of particular combinations of variables. Examples include generalized linear or additive models with variable selection (Hastie et al. 2002); or classification trees with complexity or model based pruning (Breiman et al., 1984, Zeileis, 2008). A third approach uses model averaging, to summarize the overall contribution of a variable, without considering particular combinations. Examples include neural networks, boosted or bagged regression trees and Maximum Entropy as compared in Elith et al. 2006. Typically, users of SDMs will either consider a small number of variable sets, via the first approach, or else supply all of the candidate variables (often numbering more than a hundred) to the second or third approaches. Bayesian SDMs exist, with several methods for eliciting and encoding priors on model parameters (see review in Low Choy et al. 2010). However few methods have been published for informative variable selection; one example is Bayesian trees (O’Leary 2008). Here we report an elicitation protocol that helps makes explicit a priori expert judgements on the quality of candidate variables. This protocol can be flexibly applied to any of the three approaches to variable selection, described above, Bayesian or otherwise. We demonstrate how this information can be obtained then used to guide variable selection in classical or machine learning SDMs, or to define priors within Bayesian SDMs.

Metal-organic framework structures - how closely are they related to classical inorganic structures?

Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) have emerged as an important family of compounds for which new properties are increasingly being found. The potential for such compounds appears to be immense, especially in catalysis, sorption and separation processes. In order to appreciate the properties and to design newer frameworks it is necessary to understand the structures from a fundamental perspective. The use of node, net and vertex symbols has helped in simplifying some of the complex MOF structures. Many MOF structures are beginning to be described as derived from inorganic structures. In this tutorial review, we have provided the basics of the node, the net and the vertex symbols and have explained some of the MOF structures. In addition, we have also attempted to provide some leads towards designing newer structures/topologies.

A Newton-Euler formulation for the inverse dynamics of the Stewart platform manipulator

This paper presents an inverse dynamic formulation by the Newton–Euler approach for the Stewart platform manipulator of the most general architecture and models all the dynamic and gravity effects as well as the viscous friction at the joints. It is shown that a proper elimination procedure results in a remarkably economical and fast algorithm for the solution of actuator forces, which makes the method quite suitable for on-line control purposes. In addition, the parallelism inherent in the manipulator and in the modelling makes the algorithm quite efficient in a parallel computing environment, where it can be made as fast as the corresponding formulation for the 6-dof serial manipulator. The formulation has been implemented in a program and has been used for a few trajectories planned for a test manipulator. Results of simulation presented in the paper reveal the nature of the variation of actuator forces in the Stewart platform and justify the dynamic modelling for control.

A conditionally linearized Monte Carlo filter in non-linear structural dynamics

State and parameter estimations of non-linear dynamical systems, based on incomplete and noisy measurements, are considered using Monte Carlo simulations. Given the measurements. the proposed method obtains the marginalized posterior distribution of an appropriately chosen (ideally small) subset of the state vector using a particle filter. Samples (particles) of the marginalized states are then used to construct a family of conditionally linearized system of equations and thus obtain the posterior distribution of the states using a bank of Kalman filters. Discrete process equations for the marginalized states are derived through truncated Ito-Taylor expansions. Increased analyticity and reduced dispersion of weights computed over a smaller sample space of marginalized states are the key features of the filter that help achieve smaller sample variance of the estimates. Numerical illustrations are provided for state/parameter estimations of a Duffing oscillator and a 3-DOF non-linear oscillator. Performance of the filter in parameter estimation is also assessed using measurements obtained through experiments on simple models in the laboratory. Despite an added computational cost, the results verify that the proposed filter generally produces estimates with lower sample variance over the standard sequential importance sampling (SIS) filter.

Telomere dynamics in the Sydney rock oyster (Saccostrea glomerata): an investigation into the effects of age, tissue type, location and time of sampling.

Telomere length has been purported as a biomarker for age and could offer a non-lethal method for determining the age of wild-caught individuals. Molluscs, including oysters and abalone, are the basis of important fisheries globally and have been problematic to accurately age. To determine whether telomere length could provide an alternative means of ageing molluscs, we evaluated the relationship between telomere length and age using the commercially important Sydney rock oyster (Saccostrea glomerata). Telomere lengths were estimated from tissues of known age individuals from different age classes, locations and at different sampling times. Telomere length tended to decrease with age only in young oysters less than 18 months old, but no decrease was observed in older oysters aged 2-4 years. Regional and temporal differences in telomere attrition rates were also observed. The relationship between telomere length and age was weak, however, with individuals of identical age varying significantly in their telomere length making it an imprecise age biomarker in oysters.

Fluid dynamics of the monsoon

The monsoonal regions of the world are characterized by a seasonal reversal in the direction of winds associated with the excursion of the equatorial trough (or the ITCZ) in response to the variation in the latitude of maximum insolation. This monsoonal circulation is a planetary scale phenomenon. However, the associated precipitation is critically dependent on the organization of the cumulus clouds (typically a few kilometers in horizontal extent) over the scale of synoptic vortices (typically a few hundred kilometers in horizontal extent). Thus modelling of the seasonal transitions and intraseasonal fluctuations requires an understanding of the fluid mechanics of these three scales of organizations and their interactions. The present paper is an attempt to outline the current state of understanding of these phenomena.

Tree mortality and deadwood dynamics in late-successional boreal forests

Here I aimed at quantifying the main components of deadwood dynamics, i.e. tree mortality, deadwood pools, and their decomposition, in late-successional boreal forests. I focused on standing dead trees in three stand types dominated by Picea mariana and Abies balsamea in eastern Canada, and on standing and down dead trees in Picea abies-dominated stands in three areas in Northern Europe. Dead and living trees were measured on five sample plots of 1.6-ha size in each study area and stand type. Stem disks from dead trees were sampled to determine wood density and year of death, using dendrochronological methods. The results were applied to reconstruct past tree mortality and to model deadwood decay class dynamics. Site productivity, stand developmental stage, and the occurrence of episodic tree mortality influenced deadwood volume and quality. In all study areas tree mortality was continuous, leading to continuity in deadwood decay stage distribution. Episodic tree mortality due to either autogenic or allogenic causes influenced deadwood volume and quality in all but one study area. However, regardless of productivity and disturbance history deadwood was abundant, accounting for 20 53% of total wood volume in European study areas, and 15 27% of total standing volume in eastern Canada. Deadwood was a persistent structural component, since its expected residence time in early- and midstages of decay was 18 yr even in the area with the most rapid decomposition. The results indicated that in the absence of episodic tree mortality, stands may eventually develop to a steady state, in which deadwood volume fluctuates around an equilibrium state. However, in many forests deadwood is naturally variable, due to recurrent moderate-severity disturbances. This variability, the continuous tree mortality, and variation in rates of wood decomposition determine the dynamics and availability of deadwood as a habitat and carbon storage medium in boreal coniferous forest ecosystems.

Fen ecosystem carbon gas dynamics in changing hydrological conditions

Northern peatlands are thought to store one third of all soil carbon (C). Besides the C sink function, peatlands are one of the largest natural sources of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere. Climate change may affect the C gas dynamics as well as the labile C pool. Because the peatland C sequestration and CH4 emissions are governed by high water levels, changes in hydrology are seen as the driving factor in peatland ecosystem change. This study aimed to quantify the carbon dioxide (CO2) and CH4 dynamics of a fen ecosystem at different spatial scales: plant community components scale, plant community scale and ecosystem scale, under hydrologically normal and water level drawdown conditions. C gas exchange was measured in two fens in southern Finland applying static chamber and eddy covariance techniques. During hydrologically normal conditions, the ecosystem was a CO2 sink and CH4 source to the atmosphere. Sphagnum mosses and sedges were the most important contributors to the community photosynthesis. The presence of sedges had a major positive impact on CH4 emissions while dwarf shrubs had a slightly attenuating impact. C fluxes varied considerably between the plant communities. Therefore, their proportions determined the ecosystem scale fluxes. An experimental water level drawdown markedly reduced the photosynthesis and respiration of sedges and Sphagnum mosses and benefited shrubs. Consequently, changes were smaller at the ecosystem scale than at the plant group scale. The decrease in photosynthesis and the increase in respiration, mostly peat respiration, made the fen a smaller CO2 sink. CH4 fluxes were significantly lowered, close to zero. The impact of natural droughts was similar to, although more modest than, the impact of the experimental water level drawdown. The results are applicable to the short term impacts of the water level drawdown and to climatic conditions in which droughts become more frequent.

Stand structural dynamics on pristine and managed boreal peatlands

The objectives of this study were to investigate the stand structure and succession dynamics in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands on pristine peatlands and in Scots pine and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) dominated stands on drained peatlands. Furthermore, my focus was on characterising how the inherent and environmental factors and the intermediate thinnings modify the stand structure and succession. For pristine peatlands, the study was based on inventorial stand data, while for drained peatlands, longitudinal data from repeatedly measured stands were utilised. The studied sites covered the most common peatland site types in Finland. They were classified into two categories according to the ecohydrological properties related to microsite variation and nutrient levels within sites. Tree DBH and age distributions in relation to climate and site type were used to study the stand dynamics on pristine sites. On drained sites, the Weibull function was used to parameterise the DBH distributions and mixed linear models were constructed to characterise the impacts of different ecological factors on stand dynamics. On pristine peatlands, both climate and the ecohydrology of the site proved to be crucial factors determining the stand structure and its dynamics. Irrespective of the vegetation succession, enhanced site productivity and increased stand stocking they significantly affected the stand dynamics also on drained sites. On the most stocked sites on pristine peatlands the inter-tree competition seemed to also be a significant factor modifying stand dynamics. Tree age and size diversity increased with stand age, but levelled out in the long term. After drainage, the stand structural unevenness increased due to the regeneration and/or ingrowth of the trees. This increase was more pronounced on sparsely forested composite sites than on more fully stocked genuine forested sites in Scots pine stands, which further undergo the formation of birch and spruce undergrowth beneath the overstory as succession proceeds. At 20-30 years after drainage the structural heterogeneity started to decrease, indicating increased inter-tree competition, which increased the mortality of suppressed trees within stand. Peatland stands are more dynamic than anticipated and are generally not characterized by a balanced, self-perpetuating structure. On pristine sites, various successional pathways are possible, whereas on drained sites the succession has more uniform trend. Typically, stand succession proceeds without any distinct developmental stages on pristine peatlands, whereas on drained peatlands, at least three distinct stages could be identified. Thinnings had only little impact on the stand succession. The new information on stand dynamics may be utilised, e.g. in forest management planning to facilitate the allocation of the growth resources to the desired crop component by appropriate silvicultural treatments, as well as assist in assessing the effects of the climate change on the forested boreal peatlands.

The decline of northern malaria and population dynamics of Plamodium vivax

Europe was declared malaria free in 1975. The disappearance of malaria has traditionally been attributed to numerous deliberate actions like vector control, the screening of houses, more efficient medication etc. Malaria, however, disappeared from many countries like Finland before any counter measures had even started. The aim of this thesis is to study the population ecology of P. vivax and its interaction with the human host and the vector. By finding the factors that attributed to the extinction of vivax malaria it might be possible to improve the modern strategy against P. vivax. The parasite was studied with data from Finland, which provides the longest time series (1749-2008) of malaria statistics in the world. The malaria vectors, Anopheles messeae and A. beklemishevi are still common species in the country. The eradication of vivax malaria is difficult because the parasite has a dormant stage that can cause a relapse long after a primary infection. It was now shown that P. vivax is able to detect the presence of a potential vector. A dormant stage is triggered even from a bite of an uninfected Anopheles mosquito. This optimizes the chances for the Plasmodium to reach a mosquito vector for sexual reproduction. The longevity of the dormant stage could be shown to be at least nine years. The parasite spends several years in its human host and the behaviour of the human carrier had a profound impact on the decline of the disease in Finland. Malaria spring epidemics could be explained by a previous warm summer. Neither annual nor summer mean temperature had any impact on the long term malaria trend. Malaria disappeared slowly from Finland without mosquito control. The sociological change from extended families to nuclear families led to decreased household size. The decreased household size correlated strongly with the decline of malaria. That led to an increased isolation of the subpopulations of P. vivax. Their habitat consisted of the bedrooms in which human carriers slept together with the overwintering vectors. The isolation of the parasite ultimately led to the extinction of vivax malaria. Metapopulation models adapted to local conditions should therefore be implemented as a tool for settlement planning and socio-economic development and become an integrated part of the fight against malaria.

Role of conformational dynamics in kinetics of an enzymatic cycle in a nonequilibrium steady state

Enzyme is a dynamic entity with diverse time scales, ranging from picoseconds to seconds or even longer. Here we develop a rate theory for enzyme catalysis that includes conformational dynamics as cycling on a two-dimensional (2D) reaction free energy surface involving an intrinsic reaction coordinate (X) and an enzyme conformational coordinate (Q). The validity of Michaelis-Menten (MM) equation, i.e., substrate concentration dependence of enzymatic velocity, is examined under a nonequilibrium steady state. Under certain conditions, the classic MM equation holds but with generalized microscopic interpretations of kinetic parameters. However, under other conditions, our rate theory predicts either positive (sigmoidal-like) or negative (biphasic-like) kinetic cooperativity due to the modified effective 2D reaction pathway on X-Q surface, which can explain non-MM dependence previously observed on many monomeric enzymes that involve slow or hysteretic conformational transitions. Furthermore, we find that a slow conformational relaxation during product release could retain the enzyme in a favorable configuration, such that enzymatic turnover is dynamically accelerated at high substrate concentrations. The effect of such conformation retainment in a nonequilibrium steady state is evaluated.

Nitrogen dynamics and nitrogen use efficiency of spring cereals under Finnish growing conditions

Nitrogen (N) is one of the main inputs in cereal cultivation and as more than half of the arable land in Finland is used for cereal production, N has contributed substantially to agricultural pollution through fertilizer leaching and runoff. Based on this global phenomenon, the European Community has launched several directives to reduce agricultural emissions to the environment. Trough such measures, and by using economic incentives, it is expected that northern European agricultural practices will, in the future, include reduced N fertilizer application rates. Reduced use of N fertilizer is likely to decrease both production costs and pollution, but could also result in reduced yields and quality if crops experience temporary N deficiency. Therefore, more efficient N use in cereal production, to minimize pollution risks and maximize farmer income, represents a current challenge for agronomic research in the northern growing areas. The main objective of this study was to determine the differences in nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) among spring cereals grown in Finland. Additional aims were to characterize the multiple roles of NUE by analysing the extent of variation in NUE and its component traits among different cultivars, and to understand how other physiological traits, especially radiation use efficiency (RUE) and light interception, affect and interact with the main components of NUE and contribute to differences among cultivars. This study included cultivars of barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), oat (Avena sativa L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). Field experiments were conducted between 2001 and 2004 at Jokioinen, in Finland. To determine differences in NUE among cultivars and gauge the achievements of plant breeding in NUE, 17-18 cultivars of each of the three cereal species released between 1909 and 2002 were studied. Responses to nitrogen of landraces, old cultivars and modern cultivars of each cereal species were evaluated under two N regimes (0 and 90 kg N ha-1). Results of the study revealed that modern wheat, oat and barley cultivars had similar NUE values under Finnish growing conditions and only results from a wider range of cultivars indicated that wheat cultivars could have lower NUE than the other species. There was a clear relationship between nitrogen uptake efficiency (UPE) and NUE in all species whereas nitrogen utilization efficiency (UTE) had a strong positive relationship with NUE only for oat. UTE was clearly lower in wheat than in other species. Other traits related to N translocation indicated that wheat also had a lower harvest index, nitrogen harvest index and nitrogen remobilisation efficiency and therefore its N translocation efficiency was confirmed to be very low. On the basis of these results there appears to be potential and also a need for improvement in NUE. These results may help understand the underlying physiological differences in NUE and could help to identify alternative production options, such as the different roles that species can play in crop rotations designed to meet the demands of modern agricultural practices.