The Mirage of the State: Why the West has failed in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Mali and Central African Republic? Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman Paper Series Vol. 14 No. 15, July 2014

The state still matters. However, the members of the Euro-Atlantic community may be misinterpreting this crucial baseline prior launching their military interventions since 2001. The latest violence and collapse of the state of Iraq after the invasion of Northern Iraq by a radical Sunni Muslim terrorist group, so-called Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), demonstrate once again the centrality and requirement of a functioning state in order to maintain violent forces to disrupt domestic and regional stability. Since 2001, the US and its European allies have waged wars against failed-states in order to increase this security and national interests, and then have been involved in some type of state-building.1 This has been the case in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Mali, and Central African Republic (CAR). France went into Mali (2012) and CAR (2013), which preceded two European Union military and civilian Common Security and Defense Policy missions (CSDP), in order to avoid the collapse of these two states. The threat of the collapse of both states was a concern for the members of the Euro-Atlantic community as it could have spread to the region and causing even greater instabilities. In Mali, the country was under radical Islamic pressures coming from the North after the collapse of Libya ensuing the 2011 Western intervention, while in CAR it was mainly an ethno-religious crisis. Failed states are a real concern, as they can rapidly become training grounds for radical groups and permitting all types of smuggling and trafficking.2 In Mali, France wanted to protect its large French population and avoid the fall of Mali in the hands of radical Islamic groups directly or indirectly linked to Al-Qaeda. A fallen Mali could have destabilized the region of the Sahel and ultimately affected the stability of Southern European borders. France wanted to avoid the development of a safe haven across the Sahel where movements of people and goods are uncontrolled and illegal.3 Since the end of the Cold War, Western powers have been involved in stabilizing neighborhoods and regions, like the Balkans, Africa, and Middle East, which at the exceptions of the Balkans, have led to failed policies. 9/11 changes everything. The US, under President George W. Bush, started to wage war against terrorism and all states link to it. This started a period of continuous Western interventions in this post-9/11 era in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Mali and CAR. If history has demonstrated one thing, the members of the Euro-Atlantic community are struggling and will continue to struggle to stabilize Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Mali and Central African Republic (CAR) for one simple reason: no clear endgame. Is it the creation of a state à la Westphalian in order to permit these states to operate as the sole guarantor of security? Or is the reestablishment of status quo in these countries permitting to exit and end Western operations? This article seeks to analyze Western interventions in these five countries in order to reflect on the concept of the state and the erroneous starting point for each intervention.4 In the first part, the political status of each country is analyzed in order to understand the internal and regional crisis. In a second time, the concept of the state, framed into the Buzanian trinity, is discussed and applied to the cases. In the last part the European and American civilian-military doctrines are examined in accordance with their latest military interventions and in their broader spectrum.

The Central European Predicament. Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman Paper Series Vol. 14 No. 9, May 2014

From Introduction. Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has experienced a very deep economic and political transformation since the beginning of the nineties. The early years of transition were characterized by big hopes for a quick and successful development. The international community, including the EU and the USA showed interest in the transformation of the region for a number of reasons. From a geopolitical perspective, the transformation was of tremendous importance as it confirmed the end of the cold war and the bipolar global system was replaced first by a unipolar superpower system and later gave way to a multipolar or a new bipolar system. This also signaled the weakness of the Soviet Union (and later Russia), as it was not able to prevent this transformation and was soon mired in a serious and long lasting economic and political crisis that undermined its international position. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union during the nineties Russia remained very weak, both economically and politically. The power vacuum and the transformation in Central Europe made the establishment of a new international economic and security structure possible. The new economic and political pattern that started to develop within the region was based on the liberal market economy model, with the objective of opening up markets and integrating the region into the world economy and the North Atlantic security structure.

Sea surface temperatures derived from alkenones from Late Quaternary sediments of the East Equatorial South Atlantic

Angola Basin and Walvis Ridge records of past sea surface temperatures (SST) derived from the alkenone Uk 37 index are used to reconstruct the surface circulation in the east equatorial South Atlantic for the last 200,000 years. Comparison of SST estimates from surface sediments between 5° and 20°S with modern SST data suggests that the alkenone temperatures represent annual mean values of the surface mixed layer. Alkenone-derived temperatures for the warm climatic maxima of the Holocene and the penultimate interglacial are 1 to 4°C higher than latest Holocene values. All records show glacial to interglacial differences of about 3.5°C in annual mean SST, which is about 1.5°C greater than the difference estimated by CLIMAP (1981) for the eastern Angola Basin. At the Walvis Ridge, significant SST variance is observed at all of the Earth's orbital periodicities. SST records from the Angola Basin vary predominantly at 23- and 100-kyr periodicities. For the precessional cycle, SST changes at the Walvis Ridge correspond to variations of boreal summer insolation over Africa and lead ice volume changes, suggesting that the east equatorial South Atlantic is sensitive to African monsoon intensity via trade-wind zonality. Angola Basin SST records lag those from the Walvis Ridge and the equatorial Atlantic by about 3 kyr. The comparison of Angola Basin and Walvis Ridge SST records implies that the Angola-Benguela Front (ABF) (currently at about 14-16°S) has remained fairly stationary between 12° and 20°S (the limits of our cores) during the last two glacial-interglacial cycles. The temperature contrast associated with the ABF exhibits a periodic 23-kyr variability which is coherent with changes in boreal summer insolation over Africa. These observations suggest that surface waters north of the present ABF have not directly responded to monsoon-modulated changes in the trade-wind vector, that the central field of zonally directed trades in the southern hemisphere was not shifted or extended northward by several degrees of latitude during glacials, and that a cyclonic gyre circulation has existed in the east equatorial South Atlantic over the last 200,000 years. This scenario contradicts former assumptions of glacial intensification of the Benguela Current into the eastern Angola Basin and increased coastal upwelling off Angola.

Holocene flood frequency across the Central Alps

The frequency of large-scale heavy precipitation events in the European Alps is expected to undergo substantial changes with current climate change. Hence, knowledge about the past natural variability of floods caused by heavy precipitation constitutes important input for climate projections. We present a comprehensive Holocene (10,000 years) reconstruction of the flood frequency in the Central European Alps combining 15 lacustrine sediment records. These records provide an extensive catalog of flood deposits, which were generated by flood-induced underflows delivering terrestrial material to the lake floors. The multi-archive approach allows suppressing local weather patterns, such as thunderstorms, from the obtained climate signal. We reconstructed mainly late spring to fall events since ice cover and precipitation in form of snow in winter at high-altitude study sites do inhibit the generation of flood layers. We found that flood frequency was higher during cool periods, coinciding with lows in solar activity. In addition, flood occurrence shows periodicities that are also observed in reconstructions of solar activity from 14C and 10Be records (2500-3000, 900-1200, as well as of about 710, 500, 350, 208 (Suess cycle), 150, 104 and 87 (Gleissberg cycle) years). As atmospheric mechanism, we propose an expansion/shrinking of the Hadley cell with increasing/decreasing air temperature, causing dry/wet conditions in Central Europe during phases of high/low solar activity. Furthermore, differences between the flood patterns from the Northern Alps and the Southern Alps indicate changes in North Atlantic circulation. Enhanced flood occurrence in the South compared to the North suggests a pronounced southward position of the Westerlies and/or blocking over the northern North Atlantic, hence resembling a negative NAO state (most distinct from 4.2 to 2.4 kyr BP and during the Little Ice Age). South-Alpine flood activity therefore provides a qualitative record of variations in a paleo-NAO pattern during the Holocene. Additionally, increased South Alpine flood activity contrasts to low precipitation in tropical Central America (Cariaco Basin) on the Holocene and centennial time scale. This observation is consistent with a Holocene southward migration of the Atlantic circulation system, and hence of the ITCZ, driven by decreasing summer insolation in the Northern hemisphere, as well as with shorter-term fluctuations probably driven by solar activity.

Abyssal community analysis from replicate box cores in the central North Pacific

A 0.25 m**2 United States Naval Electronics Laboratory box corer was used to take replicate samples from an oligotrophic bottom under the North Pacific Central Water Mass (~28°N, 155°W). The bottom is a red clay with manganese nodules at a depth of 5500-5800 m. Macrofaunal density ranges from 84 to 160 individuals per m**2 and is therefore much the same as in Northwest Atlantic Gyre waters. Of the macrofaunal taxa, polychaetes dominate (55 %), followed by tanaids (18 %), bivalves (7 %), and isopods (6 %). Meiofaunal taxa were only partially retained by the 297 µm screen used in washing. Even then, they are 1.5-3.9 times as abundant as the macrofaunal taxa, with nematodes being numerically dominant by far. Foraminifera seem to comprise an important portion of the community, but could not be assessed accurately because of the inability to discriminate living and dead tests. Remains of what are probably xenophyophoridans are also very important, but offer the same problem. Faunal diversity is extremely high, with deposit feeders comprising the overwhelming majority. Most species are rare, being encountered only once. The distributions of only three species show any significant deviation from randomness. The polychaete fauna from box cores collected from 90 miles to the north was not significantly different from that of the principal study locality. Concordance appeared at several taxonomic levels, from species through macrofaunal/meiofaunal relationships. As a result, the variation in total animal abundance shows aggregation among cores. We discuss Sokolova's concept of a deep-sea oligotrophic zone dominated by suspension feeders, and reconcile it with our present findings. The high diversity of the fauna combined with the low food level contradict theories that relate diversity directly with productivity.

Stable carbon and oxygen isotope ratios of late Eocene and Oligocene foraminifera from the Atlantic Ocean

Oxygen isotope analyses of late Eocene and Oligocene planktonic foraminifers from low and middle latitude sites in the Atlantic Basin show that different species from the same samples can yield significantly different isotopic values. The range of isotopic values observed between species is greatest at low-latitudes and declines poleward. Many planktonic foraminifers exhibit a systematic isotopic ranking with respect to each other and can therefore be grouped on the basis of their isotopic ranking. The isotopic ranking of some taxa, however, appears to vary geographically and/or through time. Isotopic and paleontologic data from DSDP Site 522 indicate that commonly used isotopic temperature scales underestimate Oligocene sea surface temperatures. We suggest these temperature scales require revision to reflect the presence of Oligocene glaciation. Comparison of isotopic and paleontologic data from Sites 522, 511 and 277 suggests cold, low-salinity surface waters were present in high southern latitudes during the early Oligocene. Lowsalinity, high latitude surface waters could be caused by Eocene/Oligocene paleogeography or by the production of warm saline bottom water.

Activity and biomass of small benthic biota in the central Arctic Ocean

Sediment samples collected during the expedition "Arctic Ocean '96" with the Swedish ice-breaker ODEN were investigated to estimate for the first time heterotrophic activity and total microbial biomass (size range from bacteria to small metazoans) from the perennially ice-covered central Arctic Ocean. Benthic activities and biomass were evaluated analysing a series of biogenic sediment compounds (i.e. bacterial exoenzymes, total adenylates, DNA, phospholipids, particulate proteins). In contrast to the very time-consuming sorting, enumeration and weight determination, analyses of biochemical sediment parameters may represent a useful method for obtaining rapid information on the ecological situation in a given benthic system. Bacterial cell numbers and biomass were estimated for comparison with biochemically determined biomass data, to evaluate the contribution of the bacterial biomass to the total microbial biomass. It appeared that bacterial biomass made up only 8-31% (average of all stations = 20%) of the total microbial biomass, suggesting a large fraction of other small infaunal organisms within the sediment samples (most probably fungi, yeasts, protozoans such as flagellates, ciliates or amoebae, as well as a fraction of small metazoans). Activity and biomass values determined within this study were generally extremely low, and often even slightly lower than those given for other deep oceanic regions, thus characterizing the seafloor of the central Arctic Ocean as a "benthic desert". Nevertheless, some clear trends in the data could be found, e.g. generally sharply decreasing values within the sediment column, a vague tendency for declining values with increasing water depth of sampling stations, and also differences between various Arctic deep-sea regions.

Seawater Nd and Pb isotopic record in central Pacific and Caribbean sediments

The shoaling and final closure of the Central American Seaway (CAS) resulted in a major change of the global ocean circulation and has been suggested as an essential driver for strengthening of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The exact timing of CAS closure is key to interpreting its importance. Here we present a reconstruction of deep and intermediate water Nd and Pb isotope compositions obtained from fossil fish teeth and the authigenic coatings of planktonic foraminifera in the eastern equatorial Pacific (Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1241) and the Caribbean (ODP Sites 998, 999, and 1000) covering the final stages of CAS closure between 5.6 and 2.2 Ma. The data for the Pacific site indicate no significant Atlantic/Caribbean influence over this entire period. The Caribbean sites show a continuous trend to less radiogenic Nd isotope compositions during the Pliocene, consistent with an enhancement of Upper North Atlantic Deep Water (UNADW) inflow and a strengthening of the AMOC. Superimposed onto this long-term trend, shorter-term changes of intermediate Caribbean Nd isotope signatures approached more UNADW-like values during intervals when published reconstructions of seawater salinity suggested complete closure of the CAS. The data imply that significant deep water exchange with the Pacific essentially stopped by 7 Ma and that shallow exchange, which still occurred at least periodically until approximately 2.5 Ma, may have been linked to the strength of the AMOC but did not have any direct effect on the intermediate and deep Caribbean Nd isotope signatures through mixing with Pacific waters.

Sedimentologic and magnetic data of sediment cores on the western slope of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge

The relative paleointensity (RPI) method assumes that the intensity of post depositional remanent magnetization (PDRM) depends exclusively on the magnetic field strength and the concentration of the magnetic carriers. Sedimentary remanence is regarded as an equilibrium state between aligning geomagnetic and randomizing interparticle forces. Just how strong these mechanical and electrostatic forces are, depends on many petrophysical factors related to mineralogy, particle size and shape of the matrix constituents. We therefore test the hypothesis that variations in sediment lithology modulate RPI records. For 90 selected Late Quaternary sediment samples from the subtropical and subantarctic South Atlantic Ocean a combined paleomagnetic and sedimentological dataset was established. Misleading alterations of the magnetic mineral fraction were detected by a routine Fe/kappa test (Funk, J., von Dobeneck, T., Reitz, A., 2004. Integrated rock magnetic and geochemical quantification of redoxomorphic iron mineral diagenesis in Late Quaternary sediments from the Equatorial Atlantic. In: Wefer, G., Mulitza, S., Ratmeyer, V. (Eds.), The South Atlantic in the Late Quaternary: reconstruction of material budgets and current systems. Springer-Verlag, Berlin/Heidelberg/New York/Tokyo, pp. 239-262). Samples with any indication of suboxic magnetite dissolution were excluded from the dataset. The parameters under study include carbonate, opal and terrigenous content, grain size distribution and clay mineral composition. Their bi- and multivariate correlations with the RPI signal were statistically investigated using standard techniques and criteria. While several of the parameters did not yield significant results, clay grain size and chlorite correlate weakly and opal, illite and kaolinite correlate moderately to the NRM/ARM signal used here as a RPI measure. The most influential single sedimentological factor is the kaolinite/illite ratio with a Pearson's coefficient of 0.51 and 99.9% significance. A three-member regression model suggests that matrix effects can make up over 50% of the observed RPI dynamics.

Fe-Mn crusts from the Atlantic Ocean

Mineral and chemical compositions of a set of crust samples collected from the North, Central and South Atlantic were examined by means of analytical electron microscopy and ICP-MS, chemical, and microchemical elemental analysis. Vernadite, asbolane, and goethite are dominant mineral phases of the crusts, ferrihydrite is minor, hematite and feroxyhyte are rare. The samples show wide variability in major and trace element contents; however, their characteristic geochemical signatures indicate hydrogenous origin. A comparison between compositions of oceanic hydrogenous and hydrothermal crusts and metalliferous hydrothermal sediments from different ocean areas suggests that the geochemical approach may be insufficient in some cases and fail to identify hydrothermal input in ferromanganese crusts of mixed composition.

Planktonic foraminifera and Quaternary paleoceanology of the Atlantic Ocean

An original method of paleotemperature analysis on planktonic foraminifera is substantiated and actively used for stratigraphy of bottom sediments and paleoceanologic reconstructions. On the base of this method, as well as on lithological, geochemical, and oxygen isotope data, radiocarbon dating, constructions of other investigators, etc., the main features of dynamic Quaternary paleoceanology of the Atlantic Ocean is reconstructed. It is discussed in the context of global paleogeography. Paleotemperature field, climatic zonation, paleoecology of foraminifera, position of the main water masses, water fronts, currents, distribution of sea ice boundaries, upwelling activity, benthic circulation, processes of sedimentation are econstructed and analyzed.

Late Eocene to Recent deep-sea benthic foraminifera from the Central equatorial Pacific Ocean

Benthic foraminifers were studied in upper Eocene to Recent core-catcher samples from DSDP Sites 573, 574, and 575. The sites are on a north-south transect from the equator to about 05°N at about 133°W, water depth 4300 to 4600 m. At Site 574 additional samples were used to study the Eocene/Oligocene boundary in detail. About 200 specimens were counted per sample. The fauna is highly diverse (about 50 to 70 species per sample) and is of low dominance. The diversity is not related to age or sub-bottom depth. Many species are cosmopolitan and probably have wide environmental tolerances. Fluctuations in frequency of some taxa (e.g., Nuttallides umbonifera, Epistominella exigua, and Uvigerina spp.) cannot be correlated from one site to another. Several common species (e.g. Oridorsalis umbonatus and Globocassidulina subglobosa) range from late Eocene to Recent. First and last appearances are generally difficult to define precisely because many species are rare. For some species these datums differ from one site to another, but several datum levels are within 1 m.y. at all sites. First and last appearances are most numerous in two intervals, the late Eocene to early Oligocene (about 32 to 37 Ma) and the early to middle Miocene (about 13 to 18.5 Ma). Isotopic events occur within each of these periods of benthic faunal change, but the isotopic events have a shorter duration and start after the initiation of the changes in the fauna. Changes in deep-sea benthic faunal composition are not directly related to short-term oceanographic changes as expressed in isotopic records.

Compilation of Mg/Ca ratios of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sinistral) and SST estimates from the northern North Atlantic

A map of estimated calcification temperatures of the planktic foraminifer Neogloboquadrina pachyderma sinistral (TNps) for the Nordic Seas and the northern North Atlantic for the Last Glacial Maximum was produced from oxygen isotopes with support of Mg/Ca ratios. To arrive at the reconstruction, several constraints concerning the plausible salinity and ?18O-fields were employed. The reconstruction indicates inflow of temperate waters in a wedge along the eastern border of the Nordic Seas and at least seasonally ice-free waters. The reconstruction from oxygen isotopes shows similarities with Mg/Ca based paleotemperatures in the southern and southeastern sector, while unrealistically high Mg/Ca values in the central Nordic Seas prevent the application of the method in this area. The oxygen isotope based reconstruction shows some agreement with temperature reconstructions based on the modern analogue technique, but with somewhat lower temperatures and a stronger internal gradient inside the Nordic Seas. All told, our results suggest a much more ice-free and dynamic high latitude ocean than the CLIMAP reconstruction.

(Table 1, page 661) Average composition of fossil nodules from three localities studied in the Transdanubian Central Mountains of Hungary

Fossil manganese nodules and encrustations from seamount' and basin' localities in the Transdanubian Central Mountains of Hungary are lithologically, mineralogically and chemically similar to some modern marine ferromanganese oxide deposits, and show no evidence of postdepositional changes other than cementation. Five groups of deposits were encountered: Fe/Mn nodules, encrusted shells, pavements, stains, and Fe oxide encrusted intraclasts, the first three of which are specific to the 'seamount' environment and the last to the basins'. Optical and electron microprobe investigation of the samples shows them to exhibit many similarities with modern ferromanganese oxide deposits, and that many of the nodules are surrounded by a halo of dispersed ferromanganese oxides, strongly suggesting that they continued to accrete metals through the pore waters of unlithified sediments for a period after burial. By contrast, pavements which appear to have grown on hardgrounds at the sea floor show little or no evidence of derivation of metals from underlying sediments. Geochemical investigations on the deposits show the seamount' varieties to be closer in composition to most modern nodules and crusts than the basin' varieties, and that the latter are essentially manganese and trace-element-poor ferruginous deposits. Nevertheless, all can be more or less compositionally equated with modern ferromanganese oxide deposits forming in marginal Atlantic environments, which would be in accord with the proposed depositional environment of the Transdanubian Central Mountains based on other evidence.