O nexo causal entre crédito rural e crescimento do produto agropecuário na economia brasileira

O nexo causal entre desenvolvimento financeiro e crescimento econômico vem ganhando destaque na literatura desde o início dos anos 1990. As principais linhas teóricas nessa área buscam demonstrar qual a significância da relação e o sentido da causalidade, se houver. Causalidade unidirecional no sentido do desenvolvimento financeiro para o crescimento econômico, bicausalidade entre ambos, e causalidade reversa, no sentido do crescimento para o desenvolvimento financeiro, são as principais hipóteses testadas nas pesquisas empíricas. O presente trabalho de tese tem por objetivo avaliar o nexo causal entre crédito (como um indicador do desenvolvimento financeiro) e crescimento no setor agropecuário brasileiro. O crédito rural como proporção do PIB agropecuário cresceu substancialmente desde meados da década de 90, passando de 15,44% em 1996 para 65,24% em 2014. Ao longo do período 1969-2014, a razão média anual entre crédito rural e PIB agropecuário foi de 43,87%. No mesmo período, o produto agropecuário cresceu em média 3,76% ao ano. Questiona-se se no mercado rural o crédito causa o crescimento agropecuário, se ocorre causalidade reversa ou se se opera a hipótese de bicausalidade. Para avaliar o nexo causal entre essas duas variáveis econômica foram empregados quatro procedimentos metodológicos: teste de causalidade de Granger em uma representação VAR com a abordagem de Toda e Yamamoto, teste de causalidade de Granger em um modelo FMOLS (Fully Modified OLS), teste de causalidade de Granger em um modelo ARDL (Autoregressive-Distributed Lag) e teste de causalidade de Granger no domínio da frequência, com o uso do método de Breitung e Candelon. Os resultados mostram de forma uniforme a presença de causalidade unidirecional do crédito rural para o crescimento do produto agropecuário. Causalidade reversa, no sentido do crescimento agropecuário para o crédito rural, não foi detectada de forma significativa em nenhum dos quatro métodos empregados. A não detecção de bicausalidade pode ser uma evidência do impacto da forte política de subsídio governamental ao crédito rural. A decisão do Governo quanto ao montante anual de crédito rural disponível a taxas de juros subsidiadas pode estar impedindo que o desempenho do setor, medido pela sua taxa de crescimento, exerça uma influência significativa na dinâmica do crédito rural. Os resultados também abrem a possibilidade a testar a hipótese de exogeneidade do crédito rural, o que seria uma extensão direta dos resultados obtidos.

Atribuição de causalidade ao desempenho acadêmico e autoestima de estudantes de Ciências Contábeis

A percepção sobre as causas dos acontecimentos faz parte da vida cotidiana. Atribui-se causas aos eventos na busca de entendimento que permita prever, controlar e alterar resultados futuros. Questões como \"Por que não passei na prova?\" e \"Porque fui o primeiro colocado no vestibular?\" conduzem à percepção de uma causa explicativa, seja para o fracasso ou para o sucesso. A Teoria da Atribuição Causal tem sido examinada para compreender e explicar como as pessoas interpretam os determinantes de seu sucesso ou fracasso em situações de desempenho. As causas percebidas estarão relacionadas à percepção de cada indivíduo sobre o evento, o que não implica causalidade real, dado que a ação será efetivada de acordo com a percepção de cada indivíduo sobre o evento. A abordagem teórica utilizada nessa pesquisa foi a Teoria da Atribuição Causal, proposta por Bernard Weiner, no contexto educacional, com foco nas atribuições causais para sucesso e fracasso acadêmicos. Neste cenário, o objetivo principal da pesquisa foi identificar as causas percebidas como explicativas do desempenho acadêmico de estudantes do curso de Ciências Contábeis. Buscou-se também obter evidências e subsidiar a discussão sobre a relação entre o sucesso e o fracasso acadêmico, a modalidade de ensino, a autoestima e o perfil do estudante. Os dados foram coletados por meio de um questionário aplicado aos estudantes de Ciências Contábeis de duas Universidades Federais que oferecem o curso em duas modalidades de ensino (presencial e a distância) e 738 respostas válidas foram obtidas para análise. O questionário foi estruturado em três blocos (I - desempenho e causas percebidas, II - mensuração da autoestima e III - perfil do estudante). Os resultados apresentaram um perfil com idade média dos estudantes de 27,4 anos (34,27 na modalidade EaD e 24,87 na modalidade Presencial). A maioria dos estudantes (83%) exercia atividade remunerada (90% na EaD e 80% na presencial) e as mulheres representaram a maioria dos respondentes (62% na modalidade EaD e 58% na modalidade presencial). As causas internas, especificamente o esforço e a capacidade, foram mais indicadas como explicativas do sucesso acadêmico e as causas externas, especificamente a dificuldade da tarefa, a flexibilidade de horário e a influência negativa do professor, foram as mais indicadas como explicativas do fracasso acadêmico. Como os resultados apontam que os estudantes indicaram com frequência a própria capacidade para explicar o sucesso, pode-se admitir manifestação da tendência autoservidora, que contribui para a manutenção da autoestima, diante da influência positiva na motivação. Entre as causas do sucesso, a capacidade associou-se a um nível mais elevado de autoestima e a causa sorte associou-se a um nível mais baixo de autoestima. Entre as causas do fracasso, a dificuldade da tarefa associou-se ao nível mais baixo de autoestima. Uma análise geral permite observar que os estudantes dedicam pouco tempo aos estudos, atribuem sucesso principalmente a si mesmos e o fracasso a terceiros, e apresentam uma elevada autoestima associada principalmente ao sucesso atribuído à capacidade. Em futuras pesquisas, recomenda-se estudos pilotos, com objetivo de definir outras atribuições causais para elaboração de novos instrumentos de coleta de dados, por meio de abordagem metodológica qualitativa, que possam ampliar os achados e contribuir com a literatura.

Causal Maps and Indirect Influences Analysis in the Diagnosis of Second-Home Tourism Impacts

This paper proposes a method for diagnosing the impacts of second-home tourism and illustrates it for a Mediterranean Spanish destination. This method proposes the application of network analysis software to the analysis of causal maps in order to create a causal network model based on stakeholder-identified impacts. The main innovation is the analysis of indirect relations in causal maps for the identification of the most influential nodes in the model. The results show that the most influential nodes are of a political nature, which contradicts previous diagnoses identifying technical planning as the ultimate cause of problems.

Essays on Firm Heterogeneity with Empirical Applications in Economic History and Agricultural Economics

This thesis uses models of firm-heterogeneity to complete empirical analyses in economic history and agricultural economics. In Chapter 2, a theoretical model of firm heterogeneity is used to derive a statistic that summarizes the welfare gains from the introduction of a new technology. The empirical application considers the use of mechanical steam power in the Canadian manufacturing sector during the late nineteenth century. I exploit exogenous variation in geography to estimate several parameters of the model. My results indicate that the use of steam power resulted in a 15.1 percent increase in firm-level productivity and a 3.0-5.2 percent increase in aggregate welfare. Chapter 3 considers various policy alternatives to price ceiling legislation in the market for production quotas in the dairy farming sector in Quebec. I develop a dynamic model of the demand for quotas with farmers that are heterogeneous in their marginal cost of milk production. The econometric analysis uses farm-level data and estimates a parameter of the theoretical model that is required for the counterfactual experiments. The results indicate that the price of quotas could be reduced to the ceiling price through a 4.16 percent expansion of the aggregate supply of quotas, or through moderate trade liberalization of Canadian dairy products. In Chapter 4, I study the relationship between farm-level productivity and participation in the Commercial Export Milk (CEM) program. I use a difference-in-difference research design with inverse propensity weights to test for causality between participation in the CEM program and total factor productivity (TFP). I find a positive correlation between participation in the CEM program and TFP, however I find no statistically significant evidence that the CEM program affected TFP.

Characterization of adverse drug reactions with neuropsychiatric clinical manifestations reported spontaneously to the portuguese pharmacovigilance system in the greater Lisbon area

Trabalho Final do Curso de Mestrado Integrado em Medicina, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, 2014

Continuous Off-the-Job Training in East Germany After Unification: Preliminary Results of an Evaluation of the Effects for Individual Workers, CES Germany & Europe Working Papers, No. 05.9, 19 July, 1995

Retraining the labor force to match the demands of a modem economy is seen as an important task during the transition process from a centrally-planned to a market economy. This need was particularly pressing in East Germany, because the transition process has proceeded much faster than in the rest of Eastern Europe. Therefore, substantial resources have been devoted to this purpose. This paper analyzes the impact of continuous off-the-job training in East Germany from the point of view of individuals who were part of the labor force before German unification in 1990. It tries to answer questions about the average gains from participating in a specific type of training. Typical outcomes considered to measure those gains are income, employment status, job security, and expected future changes in job position. The methodology used for the evaluation is the potential outcome approach to causality. This approach has received considerable attention in the statistical literature over the last fifteen years and it has recently been rediscovered by the econometric literature as well. It is adapted to allow for important permanent and transitory shocks, such as unemployment, which influence the decision to participate in the training as well as future labor market outcomes. The empirical part is based on the first four waves of the Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP)-East (1990-1993). This panel data set has the advantage that the fourth wave contains a special survey on continuous training and that it allows keeping track of individual behavior on a monthly, respectively yearly, basis. The econometric analysis focuses on off-the-job training courses that began after unification and were completed not later than in early 1993. Although it is obviously too early to evaluate the long-term implications, the results suggest that there are no positive effects in the short run.

A new institutional approach to Japanese firms' foreign direct investment under free trade agreements

This paper examines the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) under free trade agreements (FTAs) from a new institutional perspective. First, the determinants of FDI are theoretically discussed from a new institutional perspective. Then, FDI is statistically analyzed at the aggregate level. Kernel density estimation of firm-size reveals some evidence of "structural changes" after FTAs, as characterized by the investing firms' paid-up capital stock. Statistical tests of the average and variance of the size distribution confirm this in the case of FTAs with Asian partner countries. For FTAs with South American partner countries, the presence of FTAs seems to promote larger-scale FDIs. These results remain correlational instead of causal, and more statistical analyses would be needed to infer causality. Policy implications suggest that participants should consider "institutional" aspects of FTAs, that is, the size matters as a determinant of FDI. Future work along this line is needed to study "firm heterogeneity."

Effect of Depression and Substance Abuse on Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) Adherence in Men Who Have Sex With Men (MSM) of Mexican Descent on the US-Mexico Border

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

The productivity-inflation nexus: The case of the Australian mining sector

This paper examines the causal links between productivity growth and two price series given by domestic inflation and the price of mineral products in Australia's mining sector for the period 1968/1969 to 1997/1998. The study also uses a stochastic translog cost frontier to generate improved estimates of total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The results indicate negative unidirectional causality running from both price series to mining productivity growth. Regression analysis further shows that domestic inflation has a small but adverse effect on mining productivity growth, thus providing some empirical support for Australia's 'inflation first' monetary policy, at least with respect to the mining sector. Inflation in mineral price, on the other hand, has a greater negative effect on mining productivity growth via mineral export growth.

Subordinate-manager gender combination and perceived leadership style influence on emotions, self-esteem and organizational commitment

A theoretical model was developed to investigate the relationships among subordinate-manager gender combinations, perceived leadership style, experienced frustration and optimism, organization-based self-esteem and organizational commitment. The model was tested within the context of a probabilistic structural model, a discrete Bayesian network, using cross-sectional data from a global pharmaceutical company. The Bayesian network allowed forward inference to assess the relative influence of gender combination and leadership style on the emotions, self-esteem and commitment consequence variables. Further, diagnostics from backward inference were used to assess the relative influence of variables antecedent to organizational commitment. The results showed that gender combination was independent of leadership style and had a direct impact on subordinates' levels of frustration and optimism. Female manager-female subordinate had the largest probability of optimism, while male manager teamed with a male subordinate had the largest probability of frustration. Furthermore, having a female manager teamed up with a male subordinate resulted in the lowest possibility of frustration. However, the findings show that the gender issue is not simply female managers versus male managers, but is concerned with the interaction of the subordinate-manager gender combination and leadership style in a nonlinear manner. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Precautionary principles: a jurisdiction-free framework for decision-making under risk

Fundamental principles of precaution are legal maxims that ask for preventive actions, perhaps as contingent interim measures while relevant information about causality and harm remains unavailable, to minimize the societal impact of potentially severe or irreversible outcomes. Such principles do not explain how to make choices or how to identify what is protective when incomplete and inconsistent scientific evidence of causation characterizes the potential hazards. Rather, they entrust lower jurisdictions, such as agencies or authorities, to make current decisions while recognizing that future information can contradict the scientific basis that supported the initial decision. After reviewing and synthesizing national and international legal aspects of precautionary principles, this paper addresses the key question: How can society manage potentially severe, irreversible or serious environmental outcomes when variability, uncertainty, and limited causal knowledge characterize their decision-making? A decision-analytic solution is outlined that focuses on risky decisions and accounts for prior states of information and scientific beliefs that can be updated as subsequent information becomes available. As a practical and established approach to causal reasoning and decision-making under risk, inherent to precautionary decision-making, these (Bayesian) methods help decision-makers and stakeholders because they formally account for probabilistic outcomes, new information, and are consistent and replicable. Rational choice of an action from among various alternatives-defined as a choice that makes preferred consequences more likely-requires accounting for costs, benefits and the change in risks associated with each candidate action. Decisions under any form of the precautionary principle reviewed must account for the contingent nature of scientific information, creating a link to the decision-analytic principle of expected value of information (VOI), to show the relevance of new information, relative to the initial ( and smaller) set of data on which the decision was based. We exemplify this seemingly simple situation using risk management of BSE. As an integral aspect of causal analysis under risk, the methods developed in this paper permit the addition of non-linear, hormetic dose-response models to the current set of regulatory defaults such as the linear, non-threshold models. This increase in the number of defaults is an important improvement because most of the variants of the precautionary principle require cost-benefit balancing. Specifically, increasing the set of causal defaults accounts for beneficial effects at very low doses. We also show and conclude that quantitative risk assessment dominates qualitative risk assessment, supporting the extension of the set of default causal models.

Differences in prevalence of pre-existing morbility between injured and non-injured populations

Objectives To identify and examine differences in pre-existing morbidity between injured and non-injured population-based cohorts. Methods Administrative health data from Manitoba, Canada, were used to select a population-based cohort of injured people and a sample of non-injured people matched on age, gender, aboriginal status and geographical location of residence at the date of injury. All individuals aged 18-64 years who had been hospitalized between 1988 and 1991 for injury (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Edition, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) code 800-995) (n = 21032), were identified from the Manitoba discharge database. The matched non-injured comparison group comprised individuals randomly selected 1: 1 from the Manitoba population registry. Morbidity data for the 12 months prior to the date of the injury were obtained by linking the two cohorts with all hospital discharge records and physician claims. Results Compared to the non-injured group, injured people had higher Charlson Comorbidity Index scores, 1.9 times higher rates of hospital admissions and 1.7 times higher rates of physician claims in the year prior to the injury. Injured people had a rate of admissions to hospital for a mental health disorder 9.3 times higher, and physician claims for a mental health disorder 3.5 times higher, than that of non-injured people. These differences were all statistically significant (P < 0.001). Conclusion Injured people were shown to differ from the general non-injured population in terms of pre-existing morbidity. Existing population estimates of the attributable burden of injury that are obtained by extrapolating from observed outcomes in samples of injured cases may overestimate the magnitude of the problem.

Zero-non-zero patterned vector error correction modeling for I(2) cointegrated time series with applications in testing PPP and stock market relationships

Vector error-correction models (VECMs) have become increasingly important in their application to financial markets. Standard full-order VECM models assume non-zero entries in all their coefficient matrices. However, applications of VECM models to financial market data have revealed that zero entries are often a necessary part of efficient modelling. In such cases, the use of full-order VECM models may lead to incorrect inferences. Specifically, if indirect causality or Granger non-causality exists among the variables, the use of over-parameterised full-order VECM models may weaken the power of statistical inference. In this paper, it is argued that the zero–non-zero (ZNZ) patterned VECM is a more straightforward and effective means of testing for both indirect causality and Granger non-causality. For a ZNZ patterned VECM framework for time series of integrated order two, we provide a new algorithm to select cointegrating and loading vectors that can contain zero entries. Two case studies are used to demonstrate the usefulness of the algorithm in tests of purchasing power parity and a three-variable system involving the stock market.

Is there a case for low inflation-induced productivity growth in selected Asian economies?

The authors examine the evidence on the relationship between inflation and productivity growth for nine Asian economies using causality analysis in a multivariate model with money supply as a possible effective monetary policy tool. The inflation-productivity growth relationship is found to be non-uniform, as the evidence of uni-directional, bi-directional, and no causality between the two variables is varied and significant for some countries and insignificant for others. An attempt is made to explain the inflation-productivity nexus for these countries and to discuss implications for anti-inflationary policies such as inflation targeting.

Tradesperson or artist? A critical exploration of chefs' job satisfaction and turnover

The interest in experiential and embodied aspects of brand and other product usage is under-represented in tourism orientated research, which generally falls to develop a contextualised understanding of the relationships between products and consumers, and within this in particular, considerations of individuality and self, embodiment, emotion and sensation. Aiming to `reverse the causality' (Lannon and Cooper 1983:201) of consumption focused tourism research, in this paper, I draw on the tourism experiences of Audrey, a participant in a larger study to reveal how, rather than just `consuming', tourism consumers interpret the meaning and values in a wide range of products and objects, weaving individual, rich, sensory, embodied experiences which are informed by the interactions and relationships with activities and products, and by their own personalities, past experiences and aspirations. Audrey is highly conscious of her self and of elsewhereness, hers are fragile, self-indulgent, tactile experiences which offer the freedom to step out of everyday life roles into other time and situational spheres where environment, objects and sensory stimulation are paramount. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]