A cross-sectional study of reproductive performance of smallholder dairy cows in coastal Tanzania

A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted on 200 randomly selected smallholder farms from a mixed dairy farming system in Tanga, Tanzania, between January and April 1999. We estimated the frequency and determinants of long calving interval (LCI), retention of fetal membrane (RFM), dystocia, and abortion in smallholder crossbred cattle and explored birth trends. The mean calving interval was 500 days and birth rate was 65 per 100 cow-years. Dystocia was reported to affect 58% of calvings, and 17.2% of animals suffered RFM. Using mixed effect models, the variables associated with LCI, RFM and dystocia were breed, level of exotic blood and condition score. Zebu breeding was associated with LCI (odds ratio (OR) = 2.3, p = 0.041) and Friesian breeding with lower odds for RF (OR = 0.26, p = 0.020). Animals with higher levels of exotic blood had lower odds for evidence of dystocia (OR = 0.45, p = 0.021). Evidence of dystocia was significantly associated with poor condition score (beta = -1.10, p = 0.001). Our observations suggest that LCIs are common in smallholder dairy farms in this region and a likely source of economic loss. Dystocia, RFM, poor condition score and mineral deficiency were common problems and were possibly linked to LCI.

Shrubs, granivores and annual plant community stability in an arid ecosystem

Compensatory population dynamics among species stabilise aggregate community variables. Inter-specific competition is thought to be stabilising as it promotes asynchrony among populations. However, we know little about other inter-specific interactions, such as facilitation and granivory. Such interactions are also likely to influence population synchrony and community stability, especially in harsh environments where they are thought to have relatively strong effects in plant communities. We use a manipulative experiment to test the effects of granivores (harvester ants) and nurse plants (dwarf shrubs) on annual plant community dynamics in the Negev desert, Israel. We present evidence for weak and inconsistent effects of harvester ants on plant abundance and on population and community stability. By contrast, we show that annual communities under shrubs were more species rich, had higher plant density and were temporally less variable than communities in the inter-shrub matrix. Species richness and plant abundance were also more resistant to drought in the shrub under-storey compared with the inter-shrub matrix, although population dynamics in both patch types were synchronised. Hence, we show that inter-specific interactions other than competition affect community stability, and that hypothesised mechanisms linking compensatory dynamics and community stability may not operate to the same extent in arid plant communities.

Climate change and coastal waterbird populations - past declines and future impacts

Considerable attention has been given to the impact of climate change on avian populations over the last decade. In this paper we examine two issues with respect to coastal bird populations in the UK: (1) is there any evidence that current populations are declining due to climate change, and (2) how might we predict the response of populations in the future? We review the cause of population decline in two species associated with saltmarsh habitats. The abundance of Common Redshank Tringa totanus breeding on saltmarsh declined by about 23% between the mid-1980s and mid-1990s, but the decline appears to have been caused by an increase in grazing pressure. The number of Twite Carduelis flavirostris wintering on the coast of East Anglia has declined dramatically over recent decades; there is evidence linking this decline with habitat loss but a causal role for climate change is unclear. These examples illustrate that climate change could be having population-level impacts now, but also show that it is dangerous to become too narrowly focused on single issues affecting coastal birds. Making predictions about how populations might respond to future climate change depends on an adequate understanding of important ecological processes at an appropriate spatial scale. We illustrate this with recent work conducted on the Icelandic population of Black-tailed Godwits Limosa limosa islandica that shows large-scale regulatory processes. Most predictive models to date have focused on local populations (single estuary or a group of neighbouring estuaries). We discuss the role such models might play in risk assessment, and the need for them to be linked to larger-scale ecological processes. We argue that future work needs to focus on spatial scale issues and on linking physical models of coastal environments with important ecological processes.

Age relationships beteen low level rock platforms and the high coastal slopes in Jersey and the surrounding area.

Recent research along the coastal cliffs and embayments of Jersey has revealed new aspects of the geomorphology of the rocky shore platform and its relationship with the steep slopes that link it to the island plateau above. Specifically, a rockhead platform meets a 10-30 m high, near vertical cliff at approximately 8-10 m above Jersey Datum (J.D.= ±0 m Ordnance Datum; likewise Guernsey Datum: G.D.), slopes down-towards mid-tide levels becoming ever more deeply dissected. Generalised contours of this platform show it to be distinct from a lower tidal rockhead platform which is comparatively smooth over large areas as it undergoes continuing contemporary abrasion. This lower platform is generally separated from the higher one by low cliffs, less than a metre high at mid-tidal levels, but two to three metres at the base of the backing cliffs. Both of these platforms are shown to antedate the Last Cold Stage (Devensian) head at a number of localities and this relationship is taken to represent the general situation, not only in Jersey, but throughout the other Channel Islands and adjacent coasts of Armorica. Whether either, or both, of these two platforms are older than Marine Oxygen Isotope Substage (MOIS) 5e (Ipswichian) as well is not known. However the considerable age of the numerous and wide intertidal shore platforms of the Channel Islands and adjacent coasts of Amorica makes a greater age quite possible.

Ecosystem services and food production

By 2030, the world’s human population could rise to 8 billion people and world food demand may increase by 50%. Although food production outpaced population growth in the 20th century, it is clear that the environmental costs of these increases cannot be sustained into the future. This challenges us to re-think the way we produce food. We argue that viewing food production systems within an ecosystems context provides the basis for 21st century food production. An ecosystems view recognises that food production systems depend on ecosystem services but also have ecosystem impacts. These dependencies and impacts are often poorly understood by many people and frequently overlooked. We provide an overview of the key ecosystem services involved in different food production systems, including crop and livestock production, aquaculture and the harvesting of wild nature. We highlight the important ecosystem impacts of food production systems, including habitat loss and degradation, changes to water and nutrient cycles across a range of scales, and biodiversity loss. These impacts often undermine the very ecosystem services on which food production systems depend, as well as other ecosystem services unrelated to food. We argue that addressing these impacts requires us to re-design food production systems to recognise and manage the limitations on production imposed by the ecosystems within which they are embedded, and increasingly embrace a more multifunctional view of food production systems and associated ecosystems. In this way, we should be able to produce food more sustainably whilst inflicting less damage on other important ecosystem services.

An ECOOP web portal for visualising and comparing distributed coastal oceanography model and in situ data

As part of a large European coastal operational oceanography project (ECOOP), we have developed a web portal for the display and comparison of model and in situ marine data. The distributed model and in situ datasets are accessed via an Open Geospatial Consortium Web Map Service (WMS) and Web Feature Service (WFS) respectively. These services were developed independently and readily integrated for the purposes of the ECOOP project, illustrating the ease of interoperability resulting from adherence to international standards. The key feature of the portal is the ability to display co-plotted timeseries of the in situ and model data and the quantification of misfits between the two. By using standards-based web technology we allow the user to quickly and easily explore over twenty model data feeds and compare these with dozens of in situ data feeds without being concerned with the low level details of differing file formats or the physical location of the data. Scientific and operational benefits to this work include model validation, quality control of observations, data assimilation and decision support in near real time. In these areas it is essential to be able to bring different data streams together from often disparate locations.

Local management and landscape drivers of pollination and biological control services in a Kenyan agro-ecosystem

Arthropods that have a direct impact on crop production (i.e. pests, natural enemies and pollinators) can be influenced by both local farm management and the context within which the fields occur in the wider landscape. However, the contributions and spatial scales at which these drivers operate and interact are not fully understood, particularly in the developing world. The impact of both local management and landscape context on insect pollinators and natural enemy communities and on their capacity to deliver related ecosystem services to an economically important tropical crop, pigeonpea was investigated. The study was conducted in nine paired farms across a gradient of increasing distance to semi-native vegetation in Kibwezi, Kenya. Results show that proximity of fields to semi-native habitats negatively affected pollinator and chewing insect abundance. Within fields, pesticide use was a key negative predictor of pollinator, pest and foliar active predator abundance. On the contrary, fertilizer application significantly enhanced pollinator and both chewing and sucking insect pest abundance. At a 1 km spatial scale of fields, there were significant negative effects of the number of semi-native habitat patches within fields dominated by mass flowering pigeonpea on pollinators abundance. For service provision, a significant decline in fruit set when insects were excluded from flowers was recorded. This study reveals the interconnections of pollinators, predators and pests with pigeonpea crop. For sustainable yields and to conserve high densities of both pollinators and predators of pests within pigeonpea landscapes, it is crucial to target the adoption of less disruptive farm management practices such as reducing pesticide and fertilizer inputs.

Quantifying the value of ecosystem services: a case study of honeybee pollination in the UK

There is concern that insect pollinators, such as honey bees, are currently declining in abundance, and are under serious threat from environmental changes such as habitat loss and climate change; the use of pesticides in intensive agriculture, and emerging diseases. This paper aims to evaluate how much public support there would be in preventing further decline to maintain the current number of bee colonies in the UK. The contingent valuation method (CVM) was used to obtain the willingness to pay (WTP) for a theoretical pollinator protection policy. Respondents were asked whether they would be WTP to support such a policy and how much would they pay? Results show that the mean WTP to support the bee protection policy was £1.37/week/household. Based on there being 24.9 million households in the UK, this is equivalent to £1.77 billion per year. This total value can show the importance of maintaining the overall pollination service to policy makers. We compare this total with estimates obtained using a simple market valuation of pollination for the UK.

Integration of a 3D Variational data assimilation scheme with a coastal area morphodynamic model of Morecambe Bay

This paper describes the implementation of a 3D variational (3D-Var) data assimilation scheme for a morphodynamic model applied to Morecambe Bay, UK. A simple decoupled hydrodynamic and sediment transport model is combined with a data assimilation scheme to investigate the ability of such methods to improve the accuracy of the predicted bathymetry. The inverse forecast error covariance matrix is modelled using a Laplacian approximation which is calibrated for the length scale parameter required. Calibration is also performed for the Soulsby-van Rijn sediment transport equations. The data used for assimilation purposes comprises waterlines derived from SAR imagery covering the entire period of the model run, and swath bathymetry data collected by a ship-borne survey for one date towards the end of the model run. A LiDAR survey of the entire bay carried out in November 2005 is used for validation purposes. The comparison of the predictive ability of the model alone with the model-forecast-assimilation system demonstrates that using data assimilation significantly improves the forecast skill. An investigation of the assimilation of the swath bathymetry as well as the waterlines demonstrates that the overall improvement is initially large, but decreases over time as the bathymetry evolves away from that observed by the survey. The result of combining the calibration runs into a pseudo-ensemble provides a higher skill score than for a single optimized model run. A brief comparison of the Optimal Interpolation assimilation method with the 3D-Var method shows that the two schemes give similar results.