Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).

A comparative study of alternative approaches for common factors identification

Preliminary version

Verificação da segurança da estrutura de um efifício localizado em Faro, utlizando os eurocódigos estruturais

Desde há alguns anos que têm vindo a ser mobilizados esforços para a elaboração de uma regulamentação técnica unificada aplicável a nível Europeu, os Eurocódigos Estruturais, a qual visa estabelecer uma harmonização da regulamentação a utilizar na construção civil, promovendo a eliminação de anteriores barreiras técnicas. Actualmente, no âmbito Nacional, encontramo-nos numa fase de transição da regulamentação técnica em vigor para o dimensionamento de Edifícios em Betão Armado, do Regulamento de Segurança e Acções para Estruturas de Betão Armado (RSA) e Regulamento de Estruturas de Betão Armado e Pré-Esforçado (REBAP) para os Eurocódigos Estruturais, sendo que neste período de transição se verifica a coexistência de ambos devido à ainda não publicação em Diário da República da nova regulamentação a adoptar. No presente trabalho procura-se verificar a segurança da estrutura de um edifício com laje fungiforme, situado em Faro, projectado segundo a regulamentação nacional em vigor (RSA/REBAP), através da aplicação dos Eurocódigos Estruturais, nomeadamente o EC0, EC1, EC2 e EC8. Este tipo de edifícios, em que a laje fungiforme é utilizada como elemento sísmico primário, não é totalmente abordada no EC8, a verificação de segurança será então efectuada considerando duas abordagens de análise distintas. Numa primeira abordagem de análise adopta-se a estrutura como sendo da Classe de Ductilidade Baixa (DCL) considerando todos os elementos como sísmicos primários, e numa segunda abordagem de análise assume-se uma maior ductilidade da estrutura (DCM) classificando alguns elementos como sísmicos secundários.

Estudo da qualidade organizacional da unidade de rastreio da retinopatia diabética do Alentejo central: projecto de intervenção comunitária em saúde

Mestrado em Intervenção Sócio-Organizacional na Saúde - Área de especialização: Políticas de Gestão e Administração dos Serviços de Saúde.

Estudo das propriedades psicofisiológicas da pintura como actividade criativa remediativa das manifestações de ansiedade

Ao longo das últimas duas décadas, as intervenções de Arte-Terapia baseada nas actividades criativas de Pintura têm sido implementadas em várias instituições e com variados objectivos e fins terapêuticos, diferindo nas suas abordagens (antroposófica, arte-pedagógica e apenas baseada na arte) e nos seus métodos e materiais aplicados. Constatamos que o recurso a actividades criativas, como a Pintura, provocam efeitos positivos nos indivíduos levando-os a resolver problemas e a reduzir ansiedades, melhorando a sua qualidade de vida. Deste modo é objectivo deste estudo pré-experimental efectuar uma análise das propriedades psicofisiológicas da Pintura como actividade criativa remediativa das manifestações de ansiedade em adultos, sem diagnóstico de perturbação ansiosa. De encontro a esse objectivo, perante uma amostra constituída por 7 indivíduos com níveis de ansiedade elevados, desenvolvemos um processo terapêutico, em que foram realizadas dez sessões de pintura, com a periodicidade de duas vezes por semana tendo cada sessão a duração de 45 min. Antes e depois da intervenção pela pintura, foi administrado o inventário para Avaliação do Traço da Ansiedade (STAY-Y), e durante essas sessões foram registadas as manifestações psicofisiológicas da ansiedade, mais especificamente a actividade electrodérmica da pele (EDA) e a frequência cardíaca. (FC), sendo efectuada a sua análise. Na sequência da análise dos dados obtidos nos dois instrumentos aplicados, verificamos que em relação aos marcadores psicofisiológicos EDA e FC não obtivemos diferenças estatísticas significativas para comprovar que de facto existe uma relação entre estes marcadores e a redução da ansiedade. Em relação ao STAY-Y referente à ansiedade traço, aplicado antes e depois das sessões de pintura, verificamos uma diminuição do score, o que evidência a ocorrência de uma diminuição da ansiedade traço nos indivíduos alvo do nosso estudo. Significa isto que apesar de existir uma variância nos resultados obtidos através das duas abordagens, é provavel que a pintura, enquanto actividade terapêutica, reduza o traço de ansiedade em indivíduos normais, com níveis de ansiedade elevados e sem manifestações de ansiedade diagnosticada.

Short-term Feature Space and Music Genre Classification

In music genre classification, most approaches rely on statistical characteristics of low-level features computed on short audio frames. In these methods, it is implicitly considered that frames carry equally relevant information loads and that either individual frames, or distributions thereof, somehow capture the specificities of each genre. In this paper we study the representation space defined by short-term audio features with respect to class boundaries, and compare different processing techniques to partition this space. These partitions are evaluated in terms of accuracy on two genre classification tasks, with several types of classifiers. Experiments show that a randomized and unsupervised partition of the space, used in conjunction with a Markov Model classifier lead to accuracies comparable to the state of the art. We also show that unsupervised partitions of the space tend to create less hubs.

Study of distribution network demand response events in the Portuguese system

In competitive electricity markets with deep concerns for the efficiency level, demand response programs gain considerable significance. As demand response levels have decreased after the introduction of competition in the power industry, new approaches are required to take full advantage of demand response opportunities. Grid operators and utilities are taking new initiatives, recognizing the value of demand response for grid reliability and for the enhancement of organized spot markets’ efficiency. This paper proposes a methodology for the selection of the consumers that participate in an event, which is the responsibility of the Portuguese transmission network operator. The proposed method is intended to be applied in the interruptibility service implemented in Portugal, in convergence with Spain, in the context of the Iberian electricity market. This method is based on the calculation of locational marginal prices (LMP) which are used to support the decision concerning the consumers to be schedule for participation. The proposed method has been computationally implemented and its application is illustrated in this paper using a 937 bus distribution network with more than 20,000 consumers.

Particle swarm optimization based approaches to vehicle-to-grid scheduling

This paper addresses the problem of energy resources management using modern metaheuristics approaches, namely Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), New Particle Swarm Optimization (NPSO) and Evolutionary Particle Swarm Optimization (EPSO). The addressed problem in this research paper is intended for aggregators’ use operating in a smart grid context, dealing with Distributed Generation (DG), and gridable vehicles intelligently managed on a multi-period basis according to its users’ profiles and requirements. The aggregator can also purchase additional energy from external suppliers. The paper includes a case study considering a 30 kV distribution network with one substation, 180 buses and 90 load points. The distribution network in the case study considers intense penetration of DG, including 116 units from several technologies, and one external supplier. A scenario of 6000 EVs for the given network is simulated during 24 periods, corresponding to one day. The results of the application of the PSO approaches to this case study are discussed deep in the paper.

Combined heat and power and consumption optimization in a SCADA-based system

The operation of power systems in a Smart Grid (SG) context brings new opportunities to consumers as active players, in order to fully reach the SG advantages. In this context, concepts as smart homes or smart buildings are promising approaches to perform the optimization of the consumption, while reducing the electricity costs. This paper proposes an intelligent methodology to support the consumption optimization of an industrial consumer, which has a Combined Heat and Power (CHP) facility. A SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) system developed by the authors is used to support the implementation of the proposed methodology. An optimization algorithm implemented in the system in order to perform the determination of the optimal consumption and CHP levels in each instant, according to the Demand Response (DR) opportunities. The paper includes a case study with several scenarios of consumption and heat demand in the context of a DR event which specifies a maximum demand level for the consumer.

Demand response in electrical energy supply: an optimal real time pricing approach

In competitive electricity markets with deep concerns for the efficiency level, demand response programs gain considerable significance. As demand response levels have decreased after the introduction of competition in the power industry, new approaches are required to take full advantage of demand response opportunities. This paper presents DemSi, a demand response simulator that allows studying demand response actions and schemes in distribution networks. It undertakes the technical validation of the solution using realistic network simulation based on PSCAD. The use of DemSi by a retailer in a situation of energy shortage, is presented. Load reduction is obtained using a consumer based price elasticity approach supported by real time pricing. Non-linear programming is used to maximize the retailer’s profit, determining the optimal solution for each envisaged load reduction. The solution determines the price variations considering two different approaches, price variations determined for each individual consumer or for each consumer type, allowing to prove that the approach used does not significantly influence the retailer’s profit. The paper presents a case study in a 33 bus distribution network with 5 distinct consumer types. The obtained results and conclusions show the adequacy of the used methodology and its importance for supporting retailers’ decision making.

Linking better shiftwork arrangements with safety and health management systems

OBJECTIVE: Various support measures useful for promoting joint change approaches to the improvement of both shiftworking arrangements and safety and health management systems were reviewed. A particular focus was placed on enterprise-level risk reduction measures linking working hours and management systems. METHODS: Voluntary industry-based guidelines on night and shift work for department stores and the chemical, automobile and electrical equipment industries were examined. Survey results that had led to the compilation of practicable measures to be included in these guidelines were also examined. The common support measures were then compared with ergonomic checkpoints for plant maintenance work involving irregular nightshifts. On the basis of this analysis, a new night and shift work checklist was designed. RESULTS: Both the guidelines and the plant maintenance work checkpoints were found to commonly cover multiple issues including work schedules and various job-related risks. This close link between shiftwork arrangements and risk management was important as shiftworkers in these industries considered teamwork and welfare services to be essential for managing risks associated with night and shift work. Four areas found suitable for participatory improvement by managers and workers were work schedules, ergonomic work tasks, work environment and training. The checklist designed to facilitate participatory change processes covered all these areas. CONCLUSIONS: The checklist developed to describe feasible workplace actions was suitable for integration with comprehensive safety and health management systems and offered valuable opportunities for improving working time arrangements and job content together.

Ancillary services dispatch using linear programming and genetic algorithm approaches

Electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment requires access to an adequate decision support tool, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. For this, decision support tools must include ancillary market simulation. This paper proposes two different methods (Linear Programming and Genetic Algorithm approaches) for ancillary services dispatch. The methodologies are implemented in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator. A test case concerning the dispatch of Regulation Down, Regulation Up, Spinning Reserve and Non-Spinning Reserve services is included in this paper.

Ontologies for reusing data cleaning knowledge

The emergence of new business models, namely, the establishment of partnerships between organizations, the chance that companies have of adding existing data on the web, especially in the semantic web, to their information, led to the emphasis on some problems existing in databases, particularly related to data quality. Poor data can result in loss of competitiveness of the organizations holding these data, and may even lead to their disappearance, since many of their decision-making processes are based on these data. For this reason, data cleaning is essential. Current approaches to solve these problems are closely linked to database schemas and specific domains. In order that data cleaning can be used in different repositories, it is necessary for computer systems to understand these data, i.e., an associated semantic is needed. The solution presented in this paper includes the use of ontologies: (i) for the specification of data cleaning operations and, (ii) as a way of solving the semantic heterogeneity problems of data stored in different sources. With data cleaning operations defined at a conceptual level and existing mappings between domain ontologies and an ontology that results from a database, they may be instantiated and proposed to the expert/specialist to be executed over that database, thus enabling their interoperability.

Opresión internalizada y prácticas sexuales de riesgo en varones homo-y bi-sexuales de México

OBJETIVO: Analizar la relación entre prácticas sexuales de riesgo para infección por VIH y la opresión que éstos han internalizado debido al prejuicio y discriminación que se enfrentan varones bisexuales y homosexuales. MÉTODOS: Estudio observacional, transversal, y analítico. Entre septiembre y noviembre del 2001 se aplicó un cuestionario a 318 hombres que acudieron a organizaciones e instituciones ubicadas en la Ciudad de México. Las variables indagadas fueron: homofobia internalizada, percepción del estigma, ocultamiento y prácticas sexuales en los seis meses previos a la encuesta. Mediante modelos de regresión logistica se estimó la relación (odds ratios) de las formas de opresión internalizada con las prácticas sexuales de riesgo, ajustando por variables confusoras. RESULTADOS: De los entrevistados, 256 habían tenido por lo menos una relación sexual en los últimos seis meses, 50 respondieron no haberlas tenido y 12 no contestaron esta pregunta. Más del 30% de los varones no había utilizado preservativo cuando habían tenido sexo insertivo o receptivo. La homofobia internalizada se asoció con mayor riesgo de consumo de drogas antes o durante las relaciones sexuales, sexo insertivo sin condón, sexo receptivo sin condón y el tragar semen de otros hombres. CONCLUSIONES: Sigue siendo frecuente la adopción de prácticas sexuales de riesgo entre los varones bi y homosexuales. De las tres formas de opresión internalizada que se investigaron, la que se asoció con mayor probabilidad de prácticas sexuales de riesgo fue la homofobia internalizada. Esta información puede ser incorporada en el diseño de programas de promoción de uso de condón entre varones bi y homosexuales.

Aspectos teóricos y prácticos de la interpretación de congresos de medicina

Los congresos de medicina se destacan actualmente como uno de los eventos multilingües que se celebran con más frecuencia en el panorama internacional. Recurrir a los servicios de interpretación se revela como un hecho habitual entre los organizadores de estos encuentros, especialmente en determinados ámbitos nacionales. Por consiguiente, los congresos de medicina brindan grandes posibilidades laborales a los intérpretes de conferencias, sobre todo a aquellos cuya combinación lingüística es inglés-español, dado que el inglés se define, sin lugar a dudas, como la lengua por excelencia de la comunicación médica. No obstante, a pesar de esta demanda creciente en nuestra sociedad actual, los planteamientos académicos y profesionales siguen siendo, en gran medida, teóricos e intuitivos, fruto de experiencias personales, carentes en la mayoría de los casos de un respaldo empírico. Para corroborar o descartar ciertas presuposiciones establecidas a priori por estudiosos de la interpretación especializada, como pueden ser el uso de determinadas fuentes documentales y métodos de preparación, la evaluación de determinados parámetros de calidad o el nivel de especialización del intérprete, nos servimos de unas medidas de valoración retrospectivas en intérpretes profesionales especializados en congresos de medicina para verificar nuestro objetivo fundamental: en qué medida se alejan las teorías establecidas de la práctica profesional.