985 resultados para Bayesian logistic regression
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Traditionally, attacks on cryptographic algorithms looked for mathematical weaknesses in the underlying structure of a cipher. Side-channel attacks, however, look to extract secret key information based on the leakage from the device on which the cipher is implemented, be it smart-card, microprocessor, dedicated hardware or personal computer. Attacks based on the power consumption, electromagnetic emanations and execution time have all been practically demonstrated on a range of devices to reveal partial secret-key information from which the full key can be reconstructed. The focus of this thesis is power analysis, more specifically a class of attacks known as profiling attacks. These attacks assume a potential attacker has access to, or can control, an identical device to that which is under attack, which allows him to profile the power consumption of operations or data flow during encryption. This assumes a stronger adversary than traditional non-profiling attacks such as differential or correlation power analysis, however the ability to model a device allows templates to be used post-profiling to extract key information from many different target devices using the power consumption of very few encryptions. This allows an adversary to overcome protocols intended to prevent secret key recovery by restricting the number of available traces. In this thesis a detailed investigation of template attacks is conducted, along with how the selection of various attack parameters practically affect the efficiency of the secret key recovery, as well as examining the underlying assumption of profiling attacks in that the power consumption of one device can be used to extract secret keys from another. Trace only attacks, where the corresponding plaintext or ciphertext data is unavailable, are then investigated against both symmetric and asymmetric algorithms with the goal of key recovery from a single trace. This allows an adversary to bypass many of the currently proposed countermeasures, particularly in the asymmetric domain. An investigation into machine-learning methods for side-channel analysis as an alternative to template or stochastic methods is also conducted, with support vector machines, logistic regression and neural networks investigated from a side-channel viewpoint. Both binary and multi-class classification attack scenarios are examined in order to explore the relative strengths of each algorithm. Finally these machine-learning based alternatives are empirically compared with template attacks, with their respective merits examined with regards to attack efficiency.
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Background: When clinically indicated, common obstetric interventions can greatly improve maternal and neonatal outcomes. However, variation in intervention rates suggests that obstetric practice may not be solely driven by case criteria. Methods: Differences in obstetric intervention rates by private and public status in Ireland were examined using nationally representative hospital discharge data. A retrospective cohort study was performed on childbirth hospitalisations occurring between 2005 and 2010. Multivariate logistic regression analysis with correction for the relative risk was conducted to determine the risk of obstetric intervention (caesarean delivery, operative vaginal delivery, induction of labour or episiotomy) by private or public status while adjusting for obstetric risk factors. Results: 403,642 childbirth hospitalisations were reviewed; approximately one-third of maternities (30.2%) were booked privately. After controlling for relevant obstetric risk factors, women with private coverage were more likely to have an elective caesarean delivery (RR: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.45-1.51), an emergency caesarean delivery (RR: 1.13; 95% CI: 1.12-1.16) and an operative vaginal delivery (RR: 1.25; 95% CI: 1.22-1.27). Compared to women with public coverage who had a vaginal delivery, women with private coverage were 40% more likely to have an episiotomy (RR: 1.40; 95% CI: 1.38-1.43). Conclusions: Irrespective of obstetric risk factors, women who opted for private maternity care were significantly more likely to have an obstetric intervention. To better understand both clinical and non-clinical dynamics, future studies of examining health care coverage status and obstetric intervention would ideally apply mixed-method techniques.
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BACKGROUND & AIMS: Prophylactic administration of interleukin (IL)-10 decreases the severity of experimental pancreatitis. Prevention of post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis in humans is a unique model to study the potential role of IL-10 in this setting. METHODS: In a single-center, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled study, the effect of a single injection of 4 microg/kg (group 1) or 20 microg/kg (group 2) IL-10 was compared with that of placebo (group 0), all administered 30 minutes before therapeutic ERCP. The primary endpoint was the effect of IL-10 on serum levels of amylases and lipases measured 4, 24, and 48 hours after ERCP. The secondary objective was to evaluate changes in plasma cytokines (IL-6, IL-8, tumor necrosis factor) at the same time points and the incidence of acute pancreatitis in the 3 groups. Subjects undergoing a first therapeutic ERCP were eligible for inclusion. RESULTS: A total of 144 patients were included. Seven were excluded based on intention to treat (n = 1) or per protocol (n = 6). Forty-five, 48, and 44 patients remained in groups 0, 1, and 2, respectively. The 3 groups were comparable for age, sex, underlying disease, indication for treatment, type of treatment, and plasma levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), cytokines, and hydrolases at baseline. No significant difference was observed in CRP, cytokine, and hydrolase plasma levels after ERCP. Forty-three patients developed hyperhydrolasemia (18 in group 0, 14 in group 1, and 11 in group 2; P = 0.297), and 19 patients developed acute clinical pancreatitis (11 in group 0, 5 in group 1, 3 in group 2; P = 0.038). Two severe cases were observed in the placebo group. No mortality related to ERCP was observed. Logistic regression identified 3 independent risk factors for post-therapeutic ERCP pancreatitis: IL-10 administration (odds ratio [OR], 0.46; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.22-0.96; P = 0.039), pancreatic sphincterotomy (OR, 5.04; 95% CI, 1.53-16.61; P = 0.008), and acinarization (OR, 8.19; 95% CI, 1.83-36.57; P = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: A single intravenous dose of IL-10, given 30 minutes before the start of the procedure, independently reduces the incidence of post-therapeutic ERCP pancreatitis.
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BACKGROUND: Conflicting results have been reported among studies of protease inhibitor (PI) use during pregnancy and preterm birth. Uncontrolled confounding by indication may explain some of the differences among studies. METHODS: In total, 777 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected pregnant women in a prospective cohort who were not receiving antiretroviral (ARV) treatment at conception were studied. Births <37 weeks gestation were reviewed, and deliveries due to spontaneous labor and/or rupture of membranes were identified. Risk of preterm birth and low birth weight (<2500 g) were evaluated by using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Of the study population, 558 (72%) received combination ARV with PI during pregnancy, and a total of 130 preterm births were observed. In adjusted analyses, combination ARV with PI was not significantly associated with spontaneous preterm birth, compared to ARV without PI (odds ratio [OR], 1.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70-2.12). Sensitivity analyses that included women who received ARV prior to pregnancy also did not identify a significant association (OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 0.84-2.16). Low birth weight results were similar. CONCLUSIONS: No evidence of an association between use of combination ARV with PI during pregnancy and preterm birth was found. Our study supports current guidelines that promote consideration of combination ARV for all HIV-infected pregnant women.
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BACKGROUND: Invasive aspergillosis (IA) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) and solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients. The purpose of this study was to evaluate factors associated with mortality in transplant patients with IA. METHODS: Transplant patients from 23 US centers were enrolled from March 2001 to October 2005 as part of the Transplant Associated Infection Surveillance Network. IA cases were identified prospectively in this cohort through March 2006, and data were collected. Factors associated with 12-week all-cause mortality were determined by logistic regression analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Six-hundred forty-two cases of proven or probable IA were evaluated, of which 317 (49.4%) died by the study endpoint. All-cause mortality was greater in HSCT patients (239 [57.5%] of 415) than in SOT patients (78 [34.4%] of 227; P<.001). Independent poor prognostic factors in HSCT patients were neutropenia, renal insufficiency, hepatic insufficiency, early-onset IA, proven IA, and methylprednisolone use. In contrast, white race was associated with decreased risk of death. Among SOT patients, hepatic insufficiency, malnutrition, and central nervous system disease were poor prognostic indicators, whereas prednisone use was associated with decreased risk of death. Among HSCT or SOT patients who received antifungal therapy, use of an amphotericin B preparation as part of initial therapy was associated with increased risk of death. CONCLUSIONS: There are multiple variables associated with survival in transplant patients with IA. Understanding these prognostic factors may assist in the development of treatment algorithms and clinical trials.
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BACKGROUND: Coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is often used to treat patients with significant coronary heart disease (CHD). To date, multiple longitudinal and cross-sectional studies have examined the association between depression and CABG outcomes. Although this relationship is well established, the mechanism underlying this relationship remains unclear. The purpose of this study was twofold. First, we compared three markers of autonomic nervous system (ANS) function in four groups of patients: 1) Patients with coronary heart disease and depression (CHD/Dep), 2) Patients without CHD but with depression (NonCHD/Dep), 3) Patients with CHD but without depression (CHD/NonDep), and 4) Patients without CHD and depression (NonCHD/NonDep). Second, we investigated the impact of depression and autonomic nervous system activity on CABG outcomes. METHODS: Patients were screened to determine whether they met some of the study's inclusion or exclusion criteria. ANS function (i.e., heart rate, heart rate variability, and plasma norepinephrine levels) were measured. Chi-square and one-way analysis of variance were performed to evaluate group differences across demographic, medical variables, and indicators of ANS function. Logistic regression and multiple regression analyses were used to assess impact of depression and autonomic nervous system activity on CABG outcomes. RESULTS: The results of the study provide some support to suggest that depressed patients with CHD have greater ANS dysregulation compared to those with only CHD or depression. Furthermore, independent predictors of in-hospital length of stay and non-routine discharge included having a diagnosis of depression and CHD, elevated heart rate, and low heart rate variability. CONCLUSIONS: The current study presents evidence to support the hypothesis that ANS dysregulation might be one of the underlying mechanisms that links depression to cardiovascular CABG surgery outcomes. Thus, future studies should focus on developing and testing interventions that targets modifying ANS dysregulation, which may lead to improved patient outcomes.
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BACKGROUND: Monogamy, together with abstinence, partner reduction, and condom use, is widely advocated as a key behavioral strategy to prevent HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined the association between the number of sexual partners and the risk of HIV seropositivity among men and women presenting for HIV voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) in northern Tanzania. METHODOLOGY/ PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Clients presenting for HIV VCT at a community-based AIDS service organization in Moshi, Tanzania were surveyed between November 2003 and December 2007. Data on sociodemographic characteristics, reasons for testing, sexual behaviors, and symptoms were collected. Men and women were categorized by number of lifetime sexual partners, and rates of seropositivity were reported by category. Factors associated with HIV seropositivity among monogamous males and females were identified by a multivariate logistic regression model. Of 6,549 clients, 3,607 (55%) were female, and the median age was 30 years (IQR 24-40). 939 (25%) females and 293 (10%) males (p<0.0001) were HIV seropositive. Among 1,244 (34%) monogamous females and 423 (14%) monogamous males, the risk of HIV infection was 19% and 4%, respectively (p<0.0001). The risk increased monotonically with additional partners up to 45% (p<0.001) and 15% (p<0.001) for women and men, respectively with 5 or more partners. In multivariate analysis, HIV seropositivity among monogamous women was most strongly associated with age (p<0.0001), lower education (p<0.004), and reporting a partner with other partners (p = 0.015). Only age was a significant risk factor for monogamous men (p = 0.0004). INTERPRETATION: Among women presenting for VCT, the number of partners is strongly associated with rates of seropositivity; however, even women reporting lifetime monogamy have a high risk for HIV infection. Partner reduction should be coupled with efforts to place tools in the hands of sexually active women to reduce their risk of contracting HIV.
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BACKGROUND: In the face of the HIV/AIDS epidemic that has contributed to the dramatic increase in orphans and abandoned children (OAC) worldwide, caregiver attitudes about HIV, and HIV-related stigma, are two attributes that may affect caregiving. Little research has considered the relationship between caregiver attributes and caregiver-reported HIV-related stigma. In light of the paucity of this literature, this paper will describe HIV-related stigma among caregivers of OAC in five less wealthy nations. METHODS: Baseline data were collected between May 2006 through February 2008. The sample included 1,480 community-based and 192 institution-based caregivers. Characteristics of the community-based and institution-based caregivers are described using means and standard deviations for continuous variables or counts and percentages for categorical variables. We fit logistic regression models, both for the full sample and separately for community-based and institution-based caregivers, to explore predictors of acceptance of HIV. RESULTS: Approximately 80% of both community-based and institution-based caregivers were female; and 84% of institution-based caregivers, compared to 66% of community-based caregivers, said that they would be willing to care for a relative with HIV. Similar proportions were reported when caregivers were asked if they were willing to let their child play with an HIV-infected child. In a multivariable model predicting willingness to care for an HIV-infected relative, adjusted for site fixed effects, being an institution-based caregiver was associated with greater willingness (less stigma) than community-based caregivers. Decreased willingness was reported by older respondents, while willingness increased with greater formal education. In the adjusted models predicting willingness to allow one's child to play with an HIV-infected child, female gender and older age was associated with less willingness. However, willingness was positively associated with years of formal education. CONCLUSIONS: The caregiver-child relationship is central to a child's development. OAC already face stigma as a result of their orphaned or abandoned status; the addition of HIV-related stigma represents a double burden for these children. Further research on the prevalence of HIV-related acceptance and stigma among caregivers and implications of such stigma for child development will be critical as the policy community responds to the global HIV/AIDS orphan crisis.
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BACKGROUND: Optimally, expanded HIV testing programs should reduce barriers to testing while attracting new and high-risk testers. We assessed barriers to testing and HIV risk among clients participating in mobile voluntary counseling and testing (MVCT) campaigns in four rural villages in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania. METHODS: Between December 2007 and April 2008, 878 MVCT participants and 506 randomly selected community residents who did not access MVCT were surveyed. Gender-specific logistic regression models were used to describe differences in socioeconomic characteristics, HIV exposure risk, testing histories, HIV related stigma, and attitudes toward testing between MVCT participants and community residents who did not access MVCT. Gender-specific logistic regression models were used to describe differences in socioeconomic characteristics, HIV exposure risk, testing histories, HIV related stigma, and attitudes toward testing, between the two groups. RESULTS: MVCT clients reported greater HIV exposure risk (OR 1.20 [1.04 to 1.38] for males; OR 1.11 [1.03 to 1.19] for females). Female MVCT clients were more likely to report low household expenditures (OR 1.47 [1.04 to 2.05]), male clients reported higher rates of unstable income sources (OR 1.99 [1.22 to 3.24]). First-time testers were more likely than non-testers to cite distance to testing sites as a reason for not having previously tested (OR 2.17 [1.05 to 4.48] for males; OR 5.95 [2.85 to 12.45] for females). HIV-related stigma, fears of testing or test disclosure, and not being able to leave work were strongly associated with non-participation in MVCT (ORs from 0.11 to 0.84). CONCLUSIONS: MVCT attracted clients with increased exposure risk and fewer economic resources; HIV related stigma and testing-related fears remained barriers to testing. MVCT did not disproportionately attract either first-time or frequent repeat testers. Educational campaigns to reduce stigma and fears of testing could improve the effectiveness of MVCT in attracting new and high-risk populations.
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Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are one of the most important and cost-effective tools for malaria control. Maximizing individual and community benefit from ITNs requires high population-based coverage. Several mechanisms are used to distribute ITNs, including health facility-based targeted distribution to high-risk groups; community-based mass distribution; social marketing with or without private sector subsidies; and integrating ITN delivery with other public health interventions. The objective of this analysis is to describe bednet coverage in a district in western Kenya where the primary mechanism for distribution is to pregnant women and infants who attend antenatal and immunization clinics. We use data from a population-based census to examine the extent of, and factors correlated with, ownership of bednets. We use both multivariable logistic regression and spatial techniques to explore the relationship between household bednet ownership and sociodemographic and geographic variables. We show that only 21% of households own any bednets, far lower than the national average, and that ownership is not significantly higher amongst pregnant women attending antenatal clinic. We also show that coverage is spatially heterogeneous with less than 2% of the population residing in zones with adequate coverage to experience indirect effects of ITN protection.
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BACKGROUND: More than 153 million children worldwide have been orphaned by the loss of one or both parents, and millions more have been abandoned. We investigated relationships between the health of orphaned and abandoned children (OAC) and child, caregiver, and household characteristics among randomly selected OAC in five countries. METHODOLOGY: Using a two-stage random sampling strategy in 6 study areas in Cambodia, Ethiopia, India, Kenya, and Tanzania, the Positive Outcomes for Orphans (POFO) study identified 1,480 community-living OAC ages 6 to 12. Detailed interviews were conducted with 1,305 primary caregivers at baseline and after 6 and 12 months. Multivariable logistic regression models describe associations between the characteristics of children, caregivers, and households and child health outcomes: fair or poor child health; fever, cough, or diarrhea within the past two weeks; illness in the past 6 months; and fair or poor health on at least two assessments. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Across the six study areas, 23% of OAC were reported to be in fair or poor health; 19%, 18%, and 2% had fever, cough, or diarrhea, respectively, within the past two weeks; 55% had illnesses within the past 6 months; and 23% were in fair or poor health on at least two assessments. Female gender, suspected HIV infection, experiences of potentially traumatic events, including the loss of both parents, urban residence, eating fewer than 3 meals per day, and low caregiver involvement were associated with poorer child health outcomes. Particularly strong associations were observed between child health measures and the health of their primary caregivers. CONCLUSIONS: Poor caregiver health is a strong signal for poor health of OAC. Strategies to support OAC should target the caregiver-child dyad. Steps to ensure food security, foster gender equality, and prevent and treat traumatic events are needed.
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BACKGROUND: Lower concentrations of the insulin-like growth factor binding protein-1 (IGFBP-1) and elevated concentrations of insulin or C-peptide have been associated with an increase in colorectal cancer risk (CRC). However few studies have evaluated IGFBP-1 and C-peptide in relation to adenomatous polyps, the only known precursor for CRC. METHODS: Between November 2001 and December 2002, we examined associations between circulating concentrations of insulin, C-peptide, IGFBP-1 and apoptosis among 190 individuals with one or more adenomatous polyps and 488 with no adenomatous polyps using logistic regression models. RESULTS: Individuals with the highest concentrations of C-peptide were more likely to have adenomas (OR = 2.2, 95% CI 1.4-4.0) than those with the lowest concentrations; associations that appeared to be stronger in men (OR = 4.4, 95% CI 1.7-10.9) than women. Individuals with high insulin concentrations also had a higher risk of adenomas (OR = 3.5, 95% CI 1.7-7.4), whereas higher levels of IGFBP-1 were associated with a reduced risk of adenomas in men only (OR = 0.3, 95% CI 0.1-0.7). Overweight and obese individuals with higher C-peptide levels (>1(st) Q) were at increased risk for lower apoptosis index (OR = 2.5, 95% CI 0.9-7.1), an association that remained strong in overweight and obese men (OR = 6.3, 95% CI 1.0-36.7). Higher levels of IGFBP-1 in overweight and obese individuals were associated with a reduced risk of low apoptosis (OR = 0.3, 95% CI 0.1-1.0). CONCLUSIONS: Associations between these peptides and the apoptosis index in overweight and obese individuals, suggest that the mechanism by which C-peptide could induce adenomas may include its anti-apoptotic properties. This study suggests that hyperinsulinemia and IGF hormones predict adenoma risk, and that outcomes associated with colorectal carcinogenesis maybe modified by gender.
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PURPOSE: Evaluating genetic susceptibility may clarify effects of known environmental factors and also identify individuals at high risk. We evaluated the association of four insulin-related pathway gene polymorphisms in insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-I) (CA)( n ) repeat, insulin-like growth factor-2 (IGF-II) (rs680), insulin-like growth factor-binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3) (rs2854744), and adiponectin (APM1 rs1501299) with colon cancer risk, as well as relationships with circulating IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-3, and C-peptide in a population-based study. METHODS: Participants were African Americans (231 cases and 306 controls) and Whites (297 cases, 530 controls). Consenting subjects provided blood specimens and lifestyle/diet information. Genotyping for all genes except IGF-I was performed by the 5'-exonuclease (Taqman) assay. The IGF-I (CA)(n) repeat was assayed by PCR and fragment analysis. Circulating proteins were measured by enzyme immunoassays. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by logistic regression. RESULTS: The IGF-I (CA)( 19 ) repeat was higher in White controls (50 %) than African American controls (31 %). Whites homozygous for the IGF-I (CA)(19) repeat had a nearly twofold increase in risk of colon cancer (OR = 1.77; 95 % CI = 1.15-2.73), but not African Americans (OR = 0.73, 95 % CI 0.50-1.51). We observed an inverse association between the IGF-II Apa1 A-variant and colon cancer risk (OR = 0.49, 95 % CI 0.28-0.88) in Whites only. Carrying the IGFBP-3 variant alleles was associated with lower IGFBP-3 protein levels, a difference most pronounced in Whites (p-trend <0.05). CONCLUSIONS: These results support an association between insulin pathway-related genes and elevated colon cancer risk in Whites but not in African Americans.
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Prostate growth is dependent on circulating androgens, which can be influenced by hepatic function. Liver disease has been suggested to influence prostate cancer (CaP) incidence. However, the effect of hepatic function on CaP outcomes has not been investigated. A total of 1181 patients who underwent radical prostatectomy (RP) between 1988 and 2008 at four Veterans Affairs hospitals that comprise the Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital database and had available liver function test (LFT) data were included in the study. Independent associations of LFTs with unfavorable pathological features and biochemical recurrence were determined using logistic and Cox regression analyses. Serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase (SGOT) and serum glutamic pyruvic transaminase (SGPT) levels were elevated in 8.2 and 4.4% of patients, respectively. After controlling for CaP features, logistic regression revealed a significant association between SGOT levels and pathological Gleason sum > or =7(4+3) cancer (odds ratio=2.12; 95% confidence interval=1.11-4.05; P=0.02). Mild hepatic dysfunction was significantly associated with adverse CaP grade, but was not significantly associated with other adverse pathological features or biochemical recurrence in a cohort of men undergoing RP. The effect of moderate-to-severe liver disease on disease outcomes in CaP patients managed non-surgically remains to be investigated.
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Motorcycle crash related injuries and deaths are increasing rapidly in many African nations. Utilizing conspicuity measures, such as wearing reflective, fluorescent safety vests, are effective as crash prevention strategies. Furthermore, use of some conspicuity measures is mandated by law among motorcycle-taxi drivers in Tanzania. Nonetheless, uptake remains low. Locally appropriate strategies to improve crash preventative behaviors are needed.
To explore whether use of conspicuity measures could be improved through eliminating cost-barriers, we tested a distribution strategy involving the provision of free motorcycle safety vests among a population of motorcycle-taxi drivers in Moshi, Tanzania. We conducted a cluster randomized controlled trial among 180 motorcycle-taxi drivers in which half of the participants (90) were randomized to the intervention arm and received a free reflective vest. The other half of the participants (90) were randomized to the control arm and did not receive free vests. Whether motorcycle taxi drivers used the reflective vest was then unobtrusively observed on city streets over a period of three months.
Mixed-effects logistic regression was used to estimate differential uptake of the vests between trial arms. At baseline, 3.3% of individuals in both arms used a reflective vest. In three months of follow-up, 79 drivers in the intervention arm and 82 drivers in the control arm were able to be observed. In the intervention arm the average proportion of observations during which drivers were observed to be using a reflective vest was 9.5%, compared to 2.0% in the control arm (odds ratio: 5.5, 95% confidence interval: 1.1-26.9, p-value: 0.04). Distribution of free reflective vests did lead to an increase in vest usage, however, the increase was minimal. Removing economic barriers alone appears insufficient to adequately improve adherence to conspicuity measures.