Structural reliability prediction of a steel bridge element using Dynamic Object Oriented Bayesian Network (DOOBN)

Different from conventional methods for structural reliability evaluation, such as, first/second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM) or Monte Carlo simulation based on corresponding limit state functions, a novel approach based on dynamic objective oriented Bayesian network (DOOBN) for prediction of structural reliability of a steel bridge element has been proposed in this paper. The DOOBN approach can effectively model the deterioration processes of a steel bridge element and predict their structural reliability over time. This approach is also able to achieve Bayesian updating with observed information from measurements, monitoring and visual inspection. Moreover, the computational capacity embedded in the approach can be used to facilitate integrated management and maintenance optimization in a bridge system. A steel bridge girder is used to validate the proposed approach. The predicted results are compared with those evaluated by FORM method.

Secure data aggregation in wireless sensor networks

A Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) is a set of sensors that are integrated with a physical environment. These sensors are small in size, and capable of sensing physical phenomena and processing them. They communicate in a multihop manner, due to a short radio range, to form an Ad Hoc network capable of reporting network activities to a data collection sink. Recent advances in WSNs have led to several new promising applications, including habitat monitoring, military target tracking, natural disaster relief, and health monitoring. The current version of sensor node, such as MICA2, uses a 16 bit, 8 MHz Texas Instruments MSP430 micro-controller with only 10 KB RAM, 128 KB program space, 512 KB external ash memory to store measurement data, and is powered by two AA batteries. Due to these unique specifications and a lack of tamper-resistant hardware, devising security protocols for WSNs is complex. Previous studies show that data transmission consumes much more energy than computation. Data aggregation can greatly help to reduce this consumption by eliminating redundant data. However, aggregators are under the threat of various types of attacks. Among them, node compromise is usually considered as one of the most challenging for the security of WSNs. In a node compromise attack, an adversary physically tampers with a node in order to extract the cryptographic secrets. This attack can be very harmful depending on the security architecture of the network. For example, when an aggregator node is compromised, it is easy for the adversary to change the aggregation result and inject false data into the WSN. The contributions of this thesis to the area of secure data aggregation are manifold. We firstly define the security for data aggregation in WSNs. In contrast with existing secure data aggregation definitions, the proposed definition covers the unique characteristics that WSNs have. Secondly, we analyze the relationship between security services and adversarial models considered in existing secure data aggregation in order to provide a general framework of required security services. Thirdly, we analyze existing cryptographic-based and reputationbased secure data aggregation schemes. This analysis covers security services provided by these schemes and their robustness against attacks. Fourthly, we propose a robust reputationbased secure data aggregation scheme for WSNs. This scheme minimizes the use of heavy cryptographic mechanisms. The security advantages provided by this scheme are realized by integrating aggregation functionalities with: (i) a reputation system, (ii) an estimation theory, and (iii) a change detection mechanism. We have shown that this addition helps defend against most of the security attacks discussed in this thesis, including the On-Off attack. Finally, we propose a secure key management scheme in order to distribute essential pairwise and group keys among the sensor nodes. The design idea of the proposed scheme is the combination between Lamport's reverse hash chain as well as the usual hash chain to provide both past and future key secrecy. The proposal avoids the delivery of the whole value of a new group key for group key update; instead only the half of the value is transmitted from the network manager to the sensor nodes. This way, the compromise of a pairwise key alone does not lead to the compromise of the group key. The new pairwise key in our scheme is determined by Diffie-Hellman based key agreement.

Probabilistic subgroup identification using Bayesian finite mixture modelling : a case study in Parkinson’s disease phenotype identification

This article explores the use of probabilistic classification, namely finite mixture modelling, for identification of complex disease phenotypes, given cross-sectional data. In particular, if focuses on posterior probabilities of subgroup membership, a standard output of finite mixture modelling, and how the quantification of uncertainty in these probabilities can lead to more detailed analyses. Using a Bayesian approach, we describe two practical uses of this uncertainty: (i) as a means of describing a person’s membership to a single or multiple latent subgroups and (ii) as a means of describing identified subgroups by patient-centred covariates not included in model estimation. These proposed uses are demonstrated on a case study in Parkinson’s disease (PD), where latent subgroups are identified using multiple symptoms from the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS).

Information accountability for online healthcare social networks

Online social networking has become one of the most popular Internet applications in the modern era. They have given the Internet users, access to information that other Internet based applications are unable to. Although many of the popular online social networking web sites are focused towards entertainment purposes, sharing information can benefit the healthcare industry in terms of both efficiency and effectiveness. But the capability to share personal information; the factor which has made online social networks so popular, is itself a major obstacle when considering information security and privacy aspects. Healthcare can benefit from online social networking if they are implemented such that sensitive patient information can be safeguarded from ill exposure. But in an industry such as healthcare where the availability of information is crucial for better decision making, information must be made available to the appropriate parties when they require it. Hence the traditional mechanisms for information security and privacy protection may not be suitable for healthcare. In this paper we propose a solution to privacy enhancement in online healthcare social networks through the use of an information accountability mechanism.

Adaptive Bayesian compound designs for dose finding studies

We consider the problem of how to efficiently and safely design dose finding studies. Both current and novel utility functions are explored using Bayesian adaptive design methodology for the estimation of a maximum tolerated dose (MTD). In particular, we explore widely adopted approaches such as the continual reassessment method and minimizing the variance of the estimate of an MTD. New utility functions are constructed in the Bayesian framework and are evaluated against current approaches. To reduce computing time, importance sampling is implemented to re-weight posterior samples thus avoiding the need to draw samples using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Further, as such studies are generally first-in-man, the safety of patients is paramount. We therefore explore methods for the incorporation of safety considerations into utility functions to ensure that only safe and well-predicted doses are administered. The amalgamation of Bayesian methodology, adaptive design and compound utility functions is termed adaptive Bayesian compound design (ABCD). The performance of this amalgamation of methodology is investigated via the simulation of dose finding studies. The paper concludes with a discussion of results and extensions that could be included into our approach.

Stakeholder engagement by governance networks

Public awareness of large infrastructure projects, many of which are delivered through networked arrangements is high for several reasons. These projects often involve significant public investment; they may involve multiple and conflicting stakeholders and can potentially have significant environmental impacts (Lim and Yang, 2008). To produce positive outcomes from infrastructure delivery it is imperative that stakeholder “buy in” be obtained particularly about decisions relating to the scale and location of infrastructure. Given the likelihood that stakeholders will have different levels of interest and investment in project outcomes, failure to manage this dynamic could potentially jeopardise project delivery by delaying or halting the construction of essential infrastructure. Consequently, stakeholder engagement has come to constitute a critical activity in infrastructure development delivered through networks. This paper draws on stakeholder theory and governance network theory and provides insights into how three multi-level networks within the Roads Alliance in Queensland engage with stakeholders in the delivery of road infrastructure. New knowledge about stakeholders has been obtained by testing a model of Stakeholder Salience and Engagement which combines and extends the stakeholder identification and salience theory and the ladder of stakeholder management and engagement. By applying this model, the broad research question: “How do governance networks engage with stakeholders?” has been addressed. A multiple embedded case study design was selected as the overall approach to explore, describe, explain and evaluate how stakeholder engagement occurred in three governance networks delivering road infrastructure in Queensland. The outcomes of this research contribute to and extend stakeholder theory by showing how stakeholder salience impacts on decisions about the types of engagement processes implemented. Governance network theory is extended by showing how governance networks interact with stakeholders. From a practical perspective this research provides governance networks with an indication of how to more effectively undertake engagement with different types of stakeholders.

How can soil monitoring networks be used to improve predictions of organic carbon pool dynamics and CO2 fluxes in agricultural soils?

Abstract As regional and continental carbon balances of terrestrial ecosystems become available, it becomes clear that the soils are the largest source of uncertainty. Repeated inventories of soil organic carbon (SOC) organized in soil monitoring networks (SMN) are being implemented in a number of countries. This paper reviews the concepts and design of SMNs in ten countries, and discusses the contribution of such networks to reducing the uncertainty of soil carbon balances. Some SMNs are designed to estimate country-specific land use or management effects on SOC stocks, while others collect soil carbon and ancillary data to provide a nationally consistent assessment of soil carbon condition across the major land-use/soil type combinations. The former use a single sampling campaign of paired sites, while for the latter both systematic (usually grid based) and stratified repeated sampling campaigns (5–10 years interval) are used with densities of one site per 10–1,040 km². For paired sites, multiple samples at each site are taken in order to allow statistical analysis, while for the single sites, composite samples are taken. In both cases, fixed depth increments together with samples for bulk density and stone content are recommended. Samples should be archived to allow for re-measurement purposes using updated techniques. Information on land management, and where possible, land use history should be systematically recorded for each site. A case study of the agricultural frontier in Brazil is presented in which land use effect factors are calculated in order to quantify the CO2 fluxes from national land use/management conversion matrices. Process-based SOC models can be run for the individual points of the SMN, provided detailed land management records are available. These studies are still rare, as most SMNs have been implemented recently or are in progress. Examples from the USA and Belgium show that uncertainties in SOC change range from 1.6–6.5 Mg C ha−1 for the prediction of SOC stock changes on individual sites to 11.72 Mg C ha−1 or 34% of the median SOC change for soil/land use/climate units. For national SOC monitoring, stratified sampling sites appears to be the most straightforward attribution of SOC values to units with similar soil/land use/climate conditions (i.e. a spatially implicit upscaling approach). Keywords Soil monitoring networks - Soil organic carbon - Modeling - Sampling design

A Bayesian approach to assess interaction between known risk factors: The risk of lung cancer from exposure to asbestos and smoking

We review the literature on the combined effect of asbestos exposure and smoking on lung cancer, and explore a Bayesian approach to assess evidence of interaction. Previous approaches have focussed on separate tests for an additive or multiplicative relation. We extend these approaches by exploring the strength of evidence for either relation using approaches which allow the data to choose between both models. We then compare the different approaches.

Networks as a novel tool for studying team ball sports as complex social systems

This paper describes and evaluates the novel utility of network methods for understanding human interpersonal interactions within social neurobiological systems such as sports teams. We show how collective system networks are supported by the sum of interpersonal interactions that emerge from the activity of system agents (such as players in a sports team). To test this idea we trialled the methodology in analyses of intra-team collective behaviours in the team sport of water polo. We observed that the number of interactions between team members resulted in varied intra-team coordination patterns of play, differentiating between successful and unsuccessful performance outcomes. Future research on small-world networks methodologies needs to formalize measures of node connections in analyses of collective behaviours in sports teams, to verify whether a high frequency of interactions is needed between players in order to achieve competitive performance outcomes.