939 resultados para Bayesian belief network
Resumo:
A tunable decoupling and matching network (DMN) for a closely spaced two-element antenna array is presented. The DMN achieves perfect matching for the eigenmodes of the array and thus simultaneously isolates and matches the system ports while keeping the circuit small. Arrays of closely spaced wire and microstrip monopole pairs are used to demonstrate the proposed DMN. It is found that monopoles with different lengths can be used for the design frequency by using this DMN, which increases the design flexibility. This property also enables frequency tuning using the DMN only without having to change the length of the antennas. The proposed DMN uses only one varactor to achieve a tuning range of 18.8% with both return loss and isolation better than 10-dB when the spacing between the antenna is 0.05λ. When the spacing increases to 0.1λ, the simulated tuning range is more than 60%.
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This research deals with an innovative methodology for optimising the coal train scheduling problem. Based on our previously published work, generic solution techniques are developed by utilising a “toolbox” of standard well-solved standard scheduling problems. According to our analysis, the coal train scheduling problem can be basically modelled a Blocking Parallel-Machine Job-Shop Scheduling (BPMJSS) problem with some minor constraints. To construct the feasible train schedules, an innovative constructive algorithm called the SLEK algorithm is proposed. To optimise the train schedule, a three-stage hybrid algorithm called the SLEK-BIH-TS algorithm is developed based on the definition of a sophisticated neighbourhood structure under the mechanism of the Best-Insertion-Heuristic (BIH) algorithm and Tabu Search (TS) metaheuristic algorithm. A case study is performed for optimising a complex real-world coal rail system in Australia. A method to calculate the lower bound of the makespan is proposed to evaluate results. The results indicate that the proposed methodology is promising to find the optimal or near-optimal feasible train timetables of a coal rail system under network and terminal capacity constraints.
Resumo:
Aims Multi-method study including two parts: Study One: three sets of observations in two regional areas of Queensland Study Two: two sets of parent intercept interviews conducted in Toowoomba, Queensland. The aim of Study Two is to determine parents’ views, opinions and knowledge of child restraint practices and the Queensland legislative amendment.
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The next-generation of service-oriented architecture (SOA) needs to scale for flexible service consumption, beyond organizational and application boundaries, into communities, ecosystems and business networks. In wider and, ultimately, global settings, new capabilities are needed so that business partners can efficiently and reliably enable, adapt and expose services. Those services can then be discovered, ordered, consumed, metered and paid for, through new applications and opportunities, driven by third-parties in the global “village”. This trend is already underway, in different ways, through different early adopter market segments. This paper proposes an architectural strategy for the provisioning and delivery of services in communities, ecosystems and business networks – a Service Delivery Framework (SDF). The SDF is intended to support multiple industries and deployments where a SOA platform is needed for collaborating partners and diverse consumers. Specifically, it is envisaged that the SDF allows providers to publish their services into network directories so that they can be repurposed, traded and consumed, and leveraging network utilities like B2B gateways and cloud hosting. To support these different facets of service delivery, the SDF extends the conventional service provider, service broker and service consumer of the Web Services Architecture to include service gateway, service hoster, service aggregator and service channel maker.
Resumo:
Accurate reliability prediction for large-scale, long lived engineering is a crucial foundation for effective asset risk management and optimal maintenance decision making. However, a lack of failure data for assets that fail infrequently, and changing operational conditions over long periods of time, make accurate reliability prediction for such assets very challenging. To address this issue, we present a Bayesian-Marko best approach to reliability prediction using prior knowledge and condition monitoring data. In this approach, the Bayesian theory is used to incorporate prior information about failure probabilities and current information about asset health to make statistical inferences, while Markov chains are used to update and predict the health of assets based on condition monitoring data. The prior information can be supplied by domain experts, extracted from previous comparable cases or derived from basic engineering principles. Our approach differs from existing hybrid Bayesian models which are normally used to update the parameter estimation of a given distribution such as the Weibull-Bayesian distribution or the transition probabilities of a Markov chain. Instead, our new approach can be used to update predictions of failure probabilities when failure data are sparse or nonexistent, as is often the case for large-scale long-lived engineering assets.
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PySSM is a Python package that has been developed for the analysis of time series using linear Gaussian state space models (SSM). PySSM is easy to use; models can be set up quickly and efficiently and a variety of different settings are available to the user. It also takes advantage of scientific libraries Numpy and Scipy and other high level features of the Python language. PySSM is also used as a platform for interfacing between optimised and parallelised Fortran routines. These Fortran routines heavily utilise Basic Linear Algebra (BLAS) and Linear Algebra Package (LAPACK) functions for maximum performance. PySSM contains classes for filtering, classical smoothing as well as simulation smoothing.
Resumo:
Here we present a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm that can be used for any one-at-a-time Bayesian sequential design problem in the presence of model uncertainty where discrete data are encountered. Our focus is on adaptive design for model discrimination but the methodology is applicable if one has a different design objective such as parameter estimation or prediction. An SMC algorithm is run in parallel for each model and the algorithm relies on a convenient estimator of the evidence of each model which is essentially a function of importance sampling weights. Other methods for this task such as quadrature, often used in design, suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Approximating posterior model probabilities in this way allows us to use model discrimination utility functions derived from information theory that were previously difficult to compute except for conjugate models. A major benefit of the algorithm is that it requires very little problem specific tuning. We demonstrate the methodology on three applications, including discriminating between models for decline in motor neuron numbers in patients suffering from neurological diseases such as Motor Neuron disease.
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This paper presents the benefits and issues related to travel time prediction on urban network. Travel time information quantifies congestion and is perhaps the most important network performance measure. Travel time prediction has been an active area of research for the last five decades. The activities related to ITS have increased the attention of researchers for better and accurate real-time prediction of travel time. Majority of the literature on travel time prediction is applicable to freeways where, under non-incident conditions, traffic flow is not affected by external factors such as traffic control signals and opposing traffic flows. On urban environment the problem is more complicated due to conflicting areas (intersections), mid-link sources and sinks etc. and needs to be addressed.
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For the further noise reduction in the future, the traffic management which controls traffic flow and physical distribution is important. To conduct the measure by the traffic management effectively, it is necessary to apply the model for predicting the traffic flow in the citywide road network. For this purpose, the existing model named AVENUE was used as a macro-traffic flow prediction model. The traffic flow model was integrated with the road vehicles' sound power model, and the new road traffic noise prediction model was established. By using this prediction model, the noise map of entire city can be made. In this study, first, the change of traffic flow on the road network after the establishment of new roads was estimated, and the change of the road traffic noise caused by the new roads was predicted. As a result, it has been found that this prediction model has the ability to estimate the change of noise map by the traffic management. In addition, the macro-traffic flow model and our conventional micro-traffic flow model were combined, and the coverage of the noise prediction model was expanded.
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Just as telecommunications has played a key role in the global economy,1 high-speed broadband will have a significant role to play in the future of the digital economy. In particular high-speed broadband will have a role to play in the delivery of applications and services necessary for acquiring, and maintaining into the future Australia and Australians’ appropriate education level; community; health services, information provision and support; government services and engagement and participation by the public in the political process.
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In this paper, we apply a simulation based approach for estimating transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens. In particular, the objective is to infer the transmission rate between colonised health-care practitioners and uncolonised patients (and vice versa) solely from routinely collected incidence data. The method, using approximate Bayesian computation, is substantially less computer intensive and easier to implement than likelihood-based approaches we refer to here. We find through replacing the likelihood with a comparison of an efficient summary statistic between observed and simulated data that little is lost in the precision of estimated transmission rates. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of incorporating uncertainty in previously fixed parameters on the precision of the estimated transmission rates.
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The use of the internet for political purposes is not new; however, the introduction of social media tools has opened new avenues for political activists. In an era where social media has been credited as playing a critical role in the success of revolutions (Earl & Kimport, 2011; Papic & Noonan, 2011; Wooley, Limperos & 10 Beth, 2010), governments, law enforcement and intelligence agencies need to develop a deeper understanding of the broader capabilities of this emerging social and political environment. This can be achieved by increasing their online presence and through the application of proactive social media strategies to identify and manage potential threats. Analysis of current literature shows a gap 15 in the research regarding the connection between the theoretical understanding and practical implications of social media when exploited by political activists,and the efficacy of existing strategies designed to manage this growing challenge. This paper explores these issues by looking specifically at the use of three popular social media tools: Facebook; Twitter; and YouTube. Through the examination of 20 recent political protests in Iran, the UK and Egypt from 2009�2011, these case studies and research in the use of the three social media tools by political groups, the authors discuss inherent weaknesses in online political movements and discuss strategies for law enforcement and intelligence agencies to monitor these activities.